Peavy to Boston, Avisail Garcia + 3 low lv specs to Sox

[LittleHurt05]

The Red Sox, Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles each have a scout in attendance, tweets ESPN's Jayson Stark, while the Reds and Rangers have two apiece. Keep in mind that their presence does not necessarily imply trade interest in Peavy.

 

per mlbtraderumors

 

So there are more scouts in attendance than there are Sox fans?

[Knackattack]

If Peavy is traded, who exactly is our RH starting pitcher going to be next season?

Are they really going to let Erik Johnson or D. Axelrod be their only RH starter?

I'm just asking.

 

My guess is that they don't get good enough offers to justify trading Rios, Peavy or anyone else who could still be on the team next year. And instead, they try to put together a middle of the order, and compete.

I don't think it really matters what hand a pitcher throws with, as long as he is good.

[Jake]

If Peavy is traded, who exactly is our RH starting pitcher going to be next season?

Are they really going to let Erik Johnson or D. Axelrod be their only RH starter?

I'm just asking.

 

My guess is that they don't get good enough offers to justify trading Rios, Peavy or anyone else who could still be on the team next year. And instead, they try to put together a middle of the order, and compete.

 

I don't think they care about the handedness of their starters. Danks and Santiago get righties out much better than lefites anyway, Quintana is equally successful vs. both, and Sale gets everyone out. Non-issue

[cabiness42]

I don't think it really matters what hand a pitcher throws with, as long as he is good.

 

It's a well-known fact that left-handed people are awesome at everything.

[Big Hurtin]

The way things have gone I fully expect Peavy's arm to fall off pitching tomorrow.

Watch Robin let him throw 150 pitches.

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-peavy-...ight-be-better/

 

On Monday, the Rangers gave up a pretty hefty haul to acquire the rights to Matt Garza. With so many teams out of the race not selling, the prices that the few teams giving up talent can charge is very high, and so despite Garza’s impending free agency, the Cubs did very well in their return for a few months of a good-not-great pitcher. With Garza off the market, the teams hunting for starting pitching will likely now turn their attention to Jake Peavy.

 

Peavy doesn’t have quite same reputation as Garza does, and he probably won’t command the same kind of return. But if we actually stop and compare the two, it’s hard to make a case that Garza was the jewel of the summer and Peavy is simply a fallback plan for those who missed out on the big prize. In fact, the evidence actually suggests that Peavy might just be the better acquisition.

 

Here are their numbers, side by side, since the start of the 2011 season.

 

 

Because both have been something less than healthy, we’re only looking at about two full seasons worth of data for both pitchers. Across the board, their numbers are pretty similar, and in most cases, Peavy actually has the edge, especially once you adjust for the fact that he’s been pitching in the league that uses a DH.

 

While Garza looks to have a pretty decent advantage by ERA (3.45 to 3.95, to be exact), this is actually a great example of why ERA is a flawed way to evaluate and project pitcher performance. A half a run gap, even after adjusting for the league context, looks like advantage Garza, but note the fact that Peavy’s ahead in RA9-WAR, not just the version based on FIP. This is the result of a drastic difference in the number of unearned runs allowed.

 

Over the last two seasons and change, Garza has allowed 143 “earned runs” and 21 “unearned runs” in 373 innings. Peavy has allowed 186 “earned runs” but only nine “unearned runs”, so when you look at the gap in RA instead of ERA, it shrinks from half a run down to less than a quarter of a run. Basically, ERA is telling you to ignore a significant chunk of the runs Garza has allowed, while holding almost every run Peavy has allowed against him.

 

This is silly. If you’re going to adjust runs allowed for defensive contributions, then factor in defensive contributions. Going half way and simply erasing some runs from the record books because someone — maybe even Garza himself — made an error at some point in the rally is hardly a good way of going about it. Tango already ranted about this aspect of ERA, but he’s right, and this is one reason why I always chuckle when people say that ERA measure “what actually happened”.

 

No, it doesn’t. It arbitrarily decides some runs count and others don’t, and it pretends to account for fielding while not actually accounting for fielding at all. Based on things we know are mostly pitching and very little fielding, Peavy and Garza are actually quite similar. Don’t buy into the mirage of a difference that ERA creates. That difference is due to a problem with ERA, not with Jake Peavy.

 

If we focus more on recent performance, the tide actually tilts even further in Peavy’s favor. Since the start of the 2012 season, Peavy’s numbers are superior across the board. If we focus on just this season, Peavy wins on everything that isn’t ERA. The fact that Peavy’s ERA is over 4.00 is going to drive his price down, but for teams that know ERA isn’t all that useful, there are a lot of reasons to think he might just outpitch Garza the rest of the year.

 

And then there’s the contracts. Garza’s a free agent at the end of the year, and because he was just traded, he can’t receive a qualifying offer, so he won’t have any draft pick compensation attached this off-season. He’s probably going to aim for something in the range of the Anibal Sanchez contract, I’d imagine, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he got it. It’s going to take something like $15 million per year on a long term contract to have Garza pitching for your team in 2014.

 

Peavy, meanwhile, is already under contract for next season for $14.5 million. Essentially, for next year, Peavy and Garza will probably cost the same amount, except you don’t have to commit long term to Peavy, and he comes with the added bonus of potential qualifying offer status after 2014. If he stays healthy and pitches well over the next year and a half, whichever team acquires him could be in a position to either use the qualifying offer to get him at a discount or get a first round pick if he signs elsewhere.

 

Yes, Garza’s younger than Peavy, and he throws harder than Peavy, and his ERA is lower than Peavy, but he’s not really much better and he’s not going to be any cheaper. While the Rangers gave up a nice package to get a couple of months of Garza’s right arm and first crack at signing him, whoever acquires Peavy will get a similar pitcher without having to open up the checkbook to keep him around.

 

In a vacuum, I’d probably take Garza over Peavy — he doesn’t have the same platoon split, so I’d be a little more comfortable starting him in a playoff game against a line-up stacked with left-handed bats — but Major League Baseball is not a vacuum. Peavy is under control for an extra year at a more than fair price, and depending on how that year goes, he might offset some of the acquisition costs by returning a draft pick in the future. I don’t think the White Sox are going to get the same kind of package for Peavy as the Cubs did for Garza, as age, velocity, and ERA-based reputation still hold a lot of sway, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the team that ended up with Peavy turned out to be happier with their trade than Texas is with the Garza swap when all is said and done.

 

Given that it’s still an extreme seller’s market, I don’t know that anyone is likely to be a steal, but relative to what other pitchers are going for, Peavy might be the closest thing to a bargain this market has to offer.

[Jake]

If Peavy doesn't fetch what Garza got, we won't trade him.

[GGajewski18]

If Peavy doesn't fetch what Garza got, we won't trade him.

 

Agreed.

[Rowand44]

How does Peavy not have the reputation that Garza does? I don't get that.

[Dick Allen]

So there are more scouts in attendance than there are Sox fans?

Don't say that at WSI. One of their mods responded to a David Shuester tweet saying the same thing ripping about his career. Shuester told him to go scratch using some profane words. The mod then took it to Shuester's boss trying to get him in trouble.

Edited July 25, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Jake]

How does Peavy not have the reputation that Garza does? I don't get that.

 

I swear that this is a product of the Chicago media. Garza was not considered an ace when the Cubs got him.

[Eminor3rd]

Braves considering rotation help with Hudson down, scouting Peavy tonight: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/brav...ation-help.html

[Eminor3rd]

I swear that this is a product of the Chicago media. Garza was not considered an ace when the Cubs got him.

 

I think it's more about a misconception with Peavy -- he never got the visibility and respect he deserved for his performance last year. I don't think people know how good he was, but you can bet that front offices do.

[GGajewski18]

Braves considering rotation help with Hudson down, scouting Peavy tonight: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/brav...ation-help.html

 

As expected, just wouldn't want to trade with him. Not enough pieces.

[Paulstar]

I don't think they care about the handedness of their starters. Danks and Santiago get righties out much better than lefites anyway, Quintana is equally successful vs. both, and Sale gets everyone out. Non-issue

I could definitely see Quintana or Santiago being traded this offseason. Danks is immovable for at least another year, and I don't think we will see the Sox acquire a big time young bat like Adams (or someone else similar) this deadline like we had hopes for previously. Thus, Quintana and Santiago are the best chips the organization has to acquiring a young, cost controlled, talented bat. Maybe someone like Brett Lawrie, I don't know, but I see something like that happening. Ideally Danks would be shipped out, but the only way that happens is if you take on another bad contract, and hopefully my feelings are wrong and turns out to become an above average pitcher again.

 

Also, I don't think Danks, Quintana, and Santiago are good enough to justify having a rotation of 4 lefties. Teams like balance, and the Sox showed this when Axelrod was in the rotation over Santiago to begin the year. If they were all studs like Sale, who cares, but the other three have obvious flaws and quite frankly, I think it is a disadvantage against the Sox to have situations where they run out 3, maybe 4 lefties in a row in a single series. Part of a lefties success is that hitters are naturally more used to seeing righties, but on that 2nd, 3rd, and/or 4th game, that advantage is gone because they have seen lefties all series.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I see a rotation of Sale, Danks, Quintana/Santiago, Johnson, and a RH FA next year.

 

This is me just tossing around names right now playing arm chair GM, but maybe Tim Lincecum could be a target for the Sox on a 1 year deal with an option for the 2nd year where he tries to build his value back up for one more big contract. Its an interesting name and on a one year deal, he could also be a trade chip at the deadline if the Sox are bad again next year. Or he could have to moved to the bullpen, and he might succeed there. Either way, I don't see any team giving him a big contract.

[Eminor3rd]

As expected, just wouldn't want to trade with him. Not enough pieces.

 

Yeah, all their best guys are pitchers. Best we could do on the hitting end would seem to be Bethancourt/Terdoslavich/La Stella

[2nd_city_saint787]

Braves considering rotation help with Hudson down, scouting Peavy tonight: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/brav...ation-help.html

 

Evan Gattis would have been nice before Pheg-mania started. Move Gattis to 1B?

[Eminor3rd]

I could definitely see Quintana or Santiago being traded this offseason. Danks is immovable for at least another year, and I don't think we will see the Sox acquire a big time young bat like Adams (or someone else similar) this deadline like we had hopes for previously. Thus, Quintana and Santiago are the best chips the organization has to acquiring a young, cost controlled, talented bat. Maybe someone like Brett Lawrie, I don't know, but I see something like that happening. Ideally Danks would be shipped out, but the only way that happens is if you take on another bad contract, and hopefully my feelings are wrong and turns out to become an above average pitcher again.

 

Also, I don't think Danks, Quintana, and Santiago are good enough to justify having a rotation of 4 lefties. Teams like balance, and the Sox showed this when Axelrod was in the rotation over Santiago to begin the year. If they were all studs like Sale, who cares, but the other three have obvious flaws and quite frankly, I think it is a disadvantage against the Sox to have situations where they run out 3, maybe 4 lefties in a row in a single series. Part of a lefties success is that hitters are naturally more used to seeing righties, but on that 2nd, 3rd, and/or 4th game, that advantage is gone because they have seen lefties all series.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I see a rotation of Sale, Danks, Quintana/Santiago, Johnson, and a RH FA next year.

 

This is me just tossing around names right now playing arm chair GM, but maybe Tim Lincecum could be a target for the Sox on a 1 year deal with an option for the 2nd year where he tries to build his value back up for one more big contract. Its an interesting name and on a one year deal, he could also be a trade chip at the deadline if the Sox are bad again next year. Or he could have to moved to the bullpen, and he might succeed there. Either way, I don't see any team giving him a big contract.

 

I think most of this is spot on, especially if you consider that moving a Santiago/Quintana type could get the Sox some offensive talent. If the team really wants to have a relatively quick turn-around, trading from depth to balance out the team could be the best approach for more than one reason.

[Eminor3rd]

Evan Gattis would have been nice before Pheg-mania started. Move Gattis to 1B?

 

I'd be down for that, especially because I think Phegley will end up more like a productive, average-ish guy than an impact talent. Plus it seems like rotating catching duties is all the rage for keeping guys healthy.

 

The problem with it is that I think Oso Blanco has become rather popular in ATL, and I'm not convinced they are going to re-sign McCann.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'd be down for that, especially because I think Phegley will end up more like a productive, average-ish guy than an impact talent. Plus it seems like rotating catching duties is all the rage for keeping guys healthy.

 

The problem with it is that I think Oso Blanco has become rather popular in ATL, and I'm not convinced they are going to re-sign McCann.

 

Probably not but that's the only guy I'd want for Peavy. They can hope to resign McCann for a year or 2 then hand the job over to Bethancourt(who at some point will be blocked by Gattis anyway so it could make sense).

[hi8is]

Gattis is in no way good enough to be a return for Jake. Wasn't he a janitor last year or some random job outside of baseball?

That's a cool story. Rudy part II?

[Balta1701]

Gattis is in no way good enough to be a return for Jake. Wasn't he a janitor last year or some random job outside of baseball?

He got 300+ plate appearances between rookie ball and AA last year, following 300+ plate appearances the year before as well. Not sure what he does with his offseason?

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

I think he was having some struggles deciding on committing to baseball or something. I'd imagine that stuff is in the past now that he's in the Majors.

[hi8is]

Someone's gonna cave.

Come on. Must. Have. Action.

[GGajewski18]

Someone's gonna cave.

Come on. Must. Have. Action.

 

Well we know something will happen in the next 3 or 4 days. No way Peavy makes his next start.