Peavy to Boston, Avisail Garcia + 3 low lv specs to Sox

[Sockin]

Garfein confirms that Peavy is not starting tonight.

 

https://twitter.com/ChuckGarfien/status/362217477909917697

[TaylorStSox]

We'll still get Middlebrooks, they'll just cut off one of his thumbs

And we shall call him Carlos.

[Eminor3rd]

And we shall call him Carlos.

 

And he can be the batboy and he can dance with Southpaw

[clyons]

Garfein confirms that Peavy is not starting tonight.

 

https://twitter.com/ChuckGarfien/status/362217477909917697

 

 

That's smart.

[Frank_Thomas]

It would be absurd for Peavy to start tonight. We'd knock down his value 5% or so by starting him.

I suspect Hahn will knock down his demands and settle for a Garza like package. I didn't figure Peavy to bring a top 50 prospect.

 

I still think RH pulls this off, I still believe we get a better package than Garza. I just don't know where he ends up. Hopefully STL with Alexi. It would be one hell of a trade for STL, and for us as long as we get a combo of Martinez and Adams/Wong +

[iamshack]

That's smart.

I disagree. Unless we're really, really close on something (medicals), I'd start him. I think we give up some leverage by holding him out. Starting him sends a message to other teams that we're willing to move on with him in our rotation if we don't get solid offers.

 

Hahn's first sign of weakness, IMHO.

[Eminor3rd]

I disagree. Unless we're really, really close on something (medicals), I'd start him. I think we give up some leverage by holding him out. Starting him sends a message to other teams that we're willing to move on with him in our rotation if we don't get solid offers.

 

Hahn's first sign of weakness, IMHO.

 

I don't know. I think there's some give and take. If he senses that he's actually made a bunch of teams look elsewhere, it might make sense to send a signal that he's committed to moving him.

 

Plus, at some point you have to do what's fair to Peavy. Pretty jacked up to get him going through his whole routine when you never planned on having him pitch.

[Jake]

I disagree. Unless we're really, really close on something (medicals), I'd start him. I think we give up some leverage by holding him out. Starting him sends a message to other teams that we're willing to move on with him in our rotation if we don't get solid offers.

 

Hahn's first sign of weakness, IMHO.

 

Yeah, I found this odd with how good he had done with his pokerface

[GoGoSox2k2]

Gotta think we scratching Peavy this early that Hahn told teams to send there best offers in and he's likely down to two teams and working on the final details.. You'd have to think the deal would be announced by 4 bc we'd have to make room to call up Rienzo on the roster to start

[southsider2k5]

This is also about keeping value for Jake Peavy. If he were to pitch tonight, he couldn't start again for five days. Now any team who trades for him can literally start him on day 1.

[kwolf68]

It would be absurd for Peavy to start tonight. We'd knock down his value 5% or so by starting him.

I suspect Hahn will knock down his demands and settle for a Garza like package. I didn't figure Peavy to bring a top 50 prospect.

 

 

The Cubs got the Rangers #2, #5, and #14 (and the #14 guy may end up being the best of the 3) prospects in that trade. Now I'll admit a couple are a bit older for prospect status, but if the Sox could put two Top 5 specs out of a good organization and another just outside the top 10 I'd take it.

Edited July 30, 2013 by kwolf68

[GreenSox]

I disagree. Unless we're really, really close on something (medicals), I'd start him. I think we give up some leverage by holding him out. Starting him sends a message to other teams that we're willing to move on with him in our rotation if we don't get solid offers.

 

Hahn's first sign of weakness, IMHO.

We'd send the message that Hahn means what he says.

Meanwhile, we'd still have Peavy and we need to move him (and Rios et al)

Cut your nose to spite your face.

 

We know from the media generally what the Sox are asking for for Peavy, we know Boston et al don't want to pay it, but we don't know what they've countered with nor what we're willing to settle for. If we are inflexible off of top 50 prospects, I don't think we move him.

[Eminor3rd]

The Cubs got the Rangers #2, #5, and #14 (and the #14 guy may end up being the best of the 3) prospects in that trade. Now I'll admit a couple are a bit older for prospect status, but if the Sox could put two Top 5 specs out of a good organization and another just outside the top 10 I'd take it.

 

Keep in mind that Olt's stock dropped between pre-season rankings and now. He wouldn't be #2 anymore.

[CyAcosta41]

I disagree. Unless we're really, really close on something (medicals), I'd start him. I think we give up some leverage by holding him out. Starting him sends a message to other teams that we're willing to move on with him in our rotation if we don't get solid offers.

 

Hahn's first sign of weakness, IMHO.

 

And I respectfully disagree with you, Shack.

 

There's no loss of leverage by starting him, no "message to other teams that we're willing to move on with him" if he takes the mound. It isn't as if it's a secret that Peavy is on the block, but with a reserve -- that is, highest bidder gets him, BUT no bid considered unless > X. Were it not for the transparency of this overall situation, I'd agree with you. Send a message. But here, everybody knows what's going on, everybody knows there's a deadline looming, and everybody knows the Sox will keep Peavy, happily, if the threshold level demands are not meant. So, in that context, there is no reason whatsoever to start him tonight because there is absolutely nothing to be gained by doing so (plus the winning bidder gets a bonus of an immediate Peavy start).

 

Push him back one day, play this "game" out through the Wednesday afternoon finish line, and, if he isn't traded, a one more day rested Peavy gets Wednesday night's start.

 

In general, messages are fine and all, but in this overall context, nobody needs THIS message. More importantly, I definitely don't see this as ANY sign of weakness. It would have been a sign of weakness if he had prematurely shut Peavy down before today. But I think this was played perfectly - keep everyone guessing until the day of the start (or the night before - no difference really), but do the smart thing and don't risk anything goofy happening with TOMORROW afternoon being the deadline.

 

PS ... The only strength necessary is to stick to the "threshold or greater" return demands and don't crater and become somebody's patsy.

Edited July 30, 2013 by CyAcosta41

[Frank_Thomas]

There is one more thing I've been kinda thinking the past two or three days. Especially now, with Jake being held out of his start. I think it is more than possible a deal may have already been worked out and the team that traded for him has asked to hold on to announcing it. The reason they would ask this relates to the biogenesis stuff. Maybe the team that has acquired Jake has a player or two on the list and is waiting for MLB to announce it. Then they will announce the trade in order to capitalize on the good press of trading for Jake and shift the attention of the bad news of biogenesis.

[witesoxfan]

Yeah, if he isn't traded, he is just going to start tomorrow. No point in making him go out and try to pitch with everything he undoubtedly has on his mind right now. He'd pitch absolutely terribly, and then if a trade is consummated in the 4th inning, the Sox don't have to awkwardly pull him.

 

Plus, I mean really, if the Sox keep him, they'll have such a good pitching staff next year, and with a pitching staff like that they can definitely compete next year

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I disagree. Unless we're really, really close on something (medicals), I'd start him. I think we give up some leverage by holding him out. Starting him sends a message to other teams that we're willing to move on with him in our rotation if we don't get solid offers.

 

Hahn's first sign of weakness, IMHO.

I think you over think things Starting him is like kicking sand in your trade partners face. You want the team that trades for him to be able to start him ASAP. It's a gesture of good will. OH yeah starting him means you risk injury DUH. PV gets injured you get NOTHING ! SIMPLE FREAKIN CONCEPT.

[iamshack]

This is also about keeping value for Jake Peavy. If he were to pitch tonight, he couldn't start again for five days. Now any team who trades for him can literally start him on day 1.

Well, I get the impression that if getting him immediately was such a big concern, someone would have stepped up by now. Obviously, everyone involved is insisting on staying the course and holding their ground.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Yeah, if he isn't traded, he is just going to start tomorrow. No point in making him go out and try to pitch with everything he undoubtedly has on his mind right now. He'd pitch absolutely terribly, and then if a trade is consummated in the 4th inning, the Sox don't have to awkwardly pull him.

 

Plus, I mean really, if the Sox keep him, they'll have such a good pitching staff next year, and with a pitching staff like that they can definitely compete next year

Cue bump

[kwolf68]

Keep in mind that Olt's stock dropped between pre-season rankings and now. He wouldn't be #2 anymore.

 

 

True True, but Edwards is rising up the charts. The Cubs are banking on Olt and Grimm becoming immediate players on their big league team. I don't think either are that great. The Rangers have been waiting on Olt for what seems like forever.

 

Are the Sox looking for the same or are they willing to bring in kids that will need another year or two of seasoning.

 

I think Peavy is better than Garza, but he is also injury prone so their values may actually be similar.

 

I suspect the Sox will get 3-4 prospect for Peavy with 2 of them being low minors players with good 'tools' and a nice ceiling (but could also bust) and a couple other 'solid' prospects. I don't think we get anyone's top 1 or 2 prospecct.

[Eminor3rd]

Cue bump

 

Done!

[iamshack]

And I respectfully disagree with you, Shack.

 

There's no loss of leverage by starting him, no "message to other teams that we're willing to move on with him" if he takes the mound. It isn't as if it's a secret that Peavy is on the block, but with a reserve -- that is, highest bidder gets him, BUT no bid considered unless > X. Were it not for the transparency of this overall situation, I'd agree with you. Send a message. But here, everybody knows what's going on, everybody knows there's a deadline looming, and everybody knows the Sox will keep Peavy, happily, if the threshold level demands are not meant. So, in that context, there is no reason whatsoever to start him tonight because there is absolutely nothing to be gained by doing so (plus the winning bidder gets a bonus of an immediate Peavy start).

 

Push him back one day, play this "game" out through the Wednesday afternoon finish line, and, if he isn't traded, a one more day rested Peavy gets Wednesday night's start.

 

In general, messages are fine and all, but in this overall context, nobody needs THIS message. More importantly, I definitely don't see this as ANY sign of weakness. It would have been a sign of weakness if he had prematurely shut Peavy down before today. But I think this was played perfectly - keep everyone guessing until the day of the start (or the night before - no difference really), but do the smart thing and don't risk anything goofy happening with TOMORROW afternoon being the deadline.

 

PS ... The only strength necessary is to stick to the "threshold or greater" return demands and don't crater and become somebody's patsy.

Well, we'll agree to disagree. I know if I was a GM and I wanted Peavy, I'd take this as a sign that Peavy will indeed be moved for the highest bid, as opposed to there is a "reserve" that must be met, as you mentioned. I would hold my ground and refuse to increase my offer, except perhaps incrementally. I certainly wouldn't be making a big increase.

 

Now if we had Jake start tonight, I'd be thinking "this mfer (Hahn) is crazy as s***, and he means what he says" and I'd have no freaking clue whether my previous offers were really near that reserve you spoke of or not. And if I felt my Club really needed another arm for the stretch run, I'd probably be second guessing myself whether I should be giving up that better prospect or not.

[Eminor3rd]

True True, but Edwards is rising up the charts. The Cubs are banking on Olt and Grimm becoming immediate players on their big league team. I don't think either are that great. The Rangers have been waiting on Olt for what seems like forever.

 

Are the Sox looking for the same or are they willing to bring in kids that will need another year or two of seasoning.

 

I think Peavy is better than Garza, but he is also injury prone so their values may actually be similar.

 

I suspect the Sox will get 3-4 prospect for Peavy with 2 of them being low minors players with good 'tools' and a nice ceiling (but could also bust) and a couple other 'solid' prospects. I don't think we get anyone's top 1 or 2 prospecct.

 

True, Edwards would definitely be a top 5 now.

[iamshack]

Yeah, if he isn't traded, he is just going to start tomorrow. No point in making him go out and try to pitch with everything he undoubtedly has on his mind right now. He'd pitch absolutely terribly, and then if a trade is consummated in the 4th inning, the Sox don't have to awkwardly pull him.

 

Plus, I mean really, if the Sox keep him, they'll have such a good pitching staff next year, and with a pitching staff like that they can definitely compete next year

This is the only consideration that would make me hold him out...but I dunno that it would affect Jake much, tbh, because it certainly didn't seem to affect him his previous two starts, when he damn-well knew he had eyes all over him.

 

Edit: One thing that comes to mind though, which Hahn may be seeking to avoid, is the Ubaldo situation. I remember him making his start for Colorado right up against the deal they were making with Cleveland, and he did indeed s*** the bed, as I recall.

Edited July 30, 2013 by iamshack

[Dick Allen]

I think you over think things Starting him is like kicking sand in your trade partners face. You want the team that trades for him to be able to start him ASAP. It's a gesture of good will. OH yeah starting him means you risk injury DUH. PV gets injured you get NOTHING ! SIMPLE FREAKIN CONCEPT.

I'd start him. It would be Hahn sending a message that if you want to screw around, you pay the consequences. It cost you at least one Peavy start. It's a message for this deal and future deals. I fully expect him to be an ex-White Sox by gametime however. Don't they have to make a move for Rienzo?

Edited July 30, 2013 by Dick Allen