2014 Draft class

[Marty34]

Which has virtually zero to do with taking a high school position player in the first round of the draft.

 

The need for an impact bat just got greater. If it came down to Rodon, a HS pitcher, or Jackson, I could see the Sox taking Jackson now.

[witesoxfan]

The need for an impact bat just got greater. If it came down to Rodon, a HS pitcher, or Jackson, I could see the Sox taking Jackson now.

 

I could not. I see them taking a pitcher and all signs indicate that. What I alluded to earlier in the thread is just that there is a non-zero chance they take a hitter. I don't see that happening with this class of pitchers at the top of the draft.

[maggsmaggs]

The need for an impact bat just got greater. If it came down to Rodon, a HS pitcher, or Jackson, I could see the Sox taking Jackson now.

Pitching might be a bigger need than hitting even with Garcia's injury. We have two sure-fire guys in Sale/Quintana. Danks is still an unknown if he can become a solid pitcher again (though it looks promising), Paulino won't be here passed this year, Johnson is still unproven and behind him, we do not have any sure fire ML starters.

 

I would argue impact pitching is still a bigger need than hitting.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

It's a bad injury, happening to his lead shoulder like that . . . I think you have to proceed with this rebuilding as if he's not going to be what was hoped.

Garcia will be fine.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Even with Garcias injury, impact starting pitching is what we gota get.

[Marty34]

Pitching might be a bigger need than hitting even with Garcia's injury. We have two sure-fire guys in Sale/Quintana. Danks is still an unknown if he can become a solid pitcher again (though it looks promising), Paulino won't be here passed this year, Johnson is still unproven and behind him, we do not have any sure fire ML starters.

 

I would argue impact pitching is still a bigger need than hitting.

 

Valid point, but I think this injury may have closed the gap to the point where they might be better off taking the HS hitter (less risk) ahead of the HS pitcher (more risk.)

[DirtySox]

BA's draft update/rankings article is now free. It was not earlier. A good read.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/201...chers-dominate/

[whitesoxfan99]

The need for an impact bat just got greater. If it came down to Rodon, a HS pitcher, or Jackson, I could see the Sox taking Jackson now.

 

The Sox should take whoever they feel is the best player available regardless of position. Major league needs should never be a factor in the MLB draft.

[ShandyMan]

The sox will not base any part of their draft decision on the Garcia injury.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Valid point, but I think this injury may have closed the gap to the point where they might be better off taking the HS hitter (less risk) ahead of the HS pitcher (more risk.)

If they were approximately even you might have a point, but by all accounts the pithcers are still a lot ahead of the hitters

[BlackSox13]

Garcia will be back next spring, so unless a HS or college hitter can be ready to make the team before Garcia comes back, drafting a hitter because of Garcia's injury would be utterly stupid.

 

[knightni]

I bet Keith Law calls himself "Klaw" to sound cool; but, no one else does or thinks that it does.

 

"So... Keith..."

 

"Call me 'Klaw'."

 

"Uhhhh yeahhhh, Keith..."

[Balta1701]

The Sox should take whoever they feel is the best player available regardless of position. Major league needs should never be a factor in the MLB draft.

I actually kind of disagree with this. If there's a position where the whole system is weak then it makes sense to give a little extra weight to that position in the middle rounds, especially since in the middle rounds it's so much of a card-flip which guy is going to be better. The White Sox were weak on catchers at their lower levels like a year or two ago and had no incumbent at the big league level, so it made sense to target them.

 

But, at the top of the draft...that's just not the case.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Right now give me Kolek.

[Eminor3rd]

The need for an impact bat just got greater. If it came down to Rodon, a HS pitcher, or Jackson, I could see the Sox taking Jackson now.

 

BPA, BPA, all day, every day.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

BPA will be a pitcher

[GreenSox]

The Sox should take whoever they feel is the best player available regardless of position. Major league needs should never be a factor in the MLB draft.

Thank you.

[NorthSideSox72]

Marty, perhaps you would understand this better with an illustration. Let's look at all the high school position players drafted in slots 3 to 6 (so Sox pick plus some reach bandwidth) of the 1st round in recent years, and see how long it took them to reach the majors...

 

2013

P5, OF Clint Frazier, CLE - Hasn't reached majors, not yet assigned, played partial Rk ball season, multiple years away if he makes it

 

2012

P6, OF Albert Almora, CHC - Hasn't reached majors, in A ball now, mutliple years away if he makes it

 

2011

P5, OF Bubba Starling, KCR - Hasn't reached majors, struggling in A ball 3 years after draft, at least 2 more years away if he makes it

 

2010

P3, INF Manny Machado, BAL - Reached majors in late '12 (2 years after draft), major league regular

 

2009

P3, OF Donovan Tate, SDP - Never reached majors, out of baseball

 

2008

P3, INF Eric Hosmer, KCR - Reached majors in 2011 (3 years after draft), now a major league regular

P6, C Kyle Skipworth, FLA - Reached majors briefly in 2013 (5 years after draft), back in AAA now, has never put it together

 

2007

P3, INF/OF Josh Vitters, CHC - Reached in 2012 (5 years after draft), marginal prospect at this point, hasn't been back

 

2006

none

 

2005

none

 

2004

none

 

2003

P5, OF Chris Lubanksi, KCR - Never reached majors, out of baseball

P6, OF Ryan Harvey, CHC - Never reached majors, out of baseball

 

Now, what this should show you, is a few things. One, position players in slots 3-6 out of high school are very unusual picks, because of the risk and long development time. Two, out of the 10 players (7 of which have had any sort of real look yet), 3 never even reached the majors. The other 4 with any real dev time to work with took 2, 3, 5 and 5 years to make it. From 2011, Starling arrives no earlier than 2015 and more likely 2016 or later - 4-5 years from draft, BEST case. From 2012, Almora is still in A ball and needs multiple years more - so he's 4-5 years minimum as well. Frazier is so new he's probably not work discussing.

 

Basically, taking any position player in the draft out of high school with that high a pick is little better than a 50/50 on them even making it, and for those that do, they take typically 4 to 5 years to get there (Machado being the one outlier). And by the way, most of these guys are not CATCHERS - a position requiring significantly MORE development time.

 

Bottom line, if you draft a high school catcher with this pick, you can expect a roughly 50% likelihood of full-on bust, and if he even makes it, count on at least 4 or 5 years to get to the majors.

 

Now ask yourself... if you have said - your own post - that you don't even trust pitchers in A ball to be part of any plans... how can you possibly think it is a good idea to change your draft plans for the 3rd overall pick based on an injury on the major league roster?

 

[harfman77]

Weekend primer:

 

Carlos Rodon @ Duke 5pm

Jeff Hoffman @ ODU 5 pm

Tyler Beede v Texas A&M 5:30

Sean Newcomb @ Rutgers Saturday - noon

Edited April 11, 2014 by IowaSoxFan

[Bruce_Blixton]

Thought I'd share some recently uploaded footage I found for Rodon, Aiken, Hoffman and Kolek (I tried to find footage on Beede but for some reason it's hard to come by):

 

Carlos Rodon:

 

Rodon's debut on 2/16/14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjxRDFfMi8Y

 

Rodon vs. Appalachian State on 2/21/14 (also includes tape on Turner and a few other prospects): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOye7V69jnE

 

Rodon vs. UCLA on 3/1/14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py-CAm522dQ

 

Rodon looks to have a pretty smooth delivery, attacks the hitters and throws a lot of strikes. The stuff looks to be front of the rotation quality based on the several swing and misses. I would be very happy to see Rodon available at #3.

 

Jeff Hoffman:

 

Hoffman vs. UVA on 2/21/14:

 

Hoffman vs. Rice on 4/1/14:

 

I'm not a big fan of Hoffman and the recent tape does nothing to sway my opinion, the stuff and athleticism might be there but I immediately noticed that he is a nibbler in the mold of Javy Vazquez or AJ Burnett, a pitcher with above average that stuff doesn't really trust it. I see a lot of comps to Justin Verlander and Adam Wainwright floating around but those guys at least dominated their competition at this point of their career whereas Hoffman has yet to demonstrate that type of domination.

 

Brady Aiken:

 

Aiken vs. University City:

 

Aiken's no-hitter vs. Ja Jolla:

 

I really like this kid and he would be my top choice if available at #3, his delivery looks very clean and repeatable, his stuff is plus but on this footage his fastball looks heavier than I remember, relentlessly attacks the hitters and has the look of an ace. If we could nab Aiken to pair with Danish and Sale in 3-4 years we could have a filthy rotation.

 

Tyler Kolek:

 

Kolek video uploaded on 4/7/14:

 

Kolek video uploaded on 3/24/14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxMQT0yhLVc

 

I like Kolek's potential and he already has plus stuff but his size is still a concern for me, he has kind of jerky delivery that causes his control to be erratic which I'm sure can be corrected with the right coaching but doesn't bode well for his long-term health.

 

Based on the recent footage I'd go with Rodon, Aiken, Kolek, Beede, then Hoffman and to be perfectly honest I'd rather take a serious look at other top end college pitchers before pulling the trigger on Hoffman.

 

[harfman77]

Thought I'd share some recently uploaded footage I found for Rodon, Aiken, Hoffman and Kolek (I tried to find footage on Beede but for some reason it's hard to come by):

 

Carlos Rodon:

 

Rodon's debut on 2/16/14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjxRDFfMi8Y

 

Rodon vs. Appalachian State on 2/21/14 (also includes tape on Turner and a few other prospects): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOye7V69jnE

 

Rodon vs. UCLA on 3/1/14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py-CAm522dQ

 

Rodon looks to have a pretty smooth delivery, attacks the hitters and throws a lot of strikes. The stuff looks to be front of the rotation quality based on the several swing and misses. I would be very happy to see Rodon available at #3.

 

Jeff Hoffman:

 

Hoffman vs. UVA on 2/21/14:

 

Hoffman vs. Rice on 4/1/14:

 

I'm not a big fan of Hoffman and the recent tape does nothing to sway my opinion, the stuff and athleticism might be there but I immediately noticed that he is a nibbler in the mold of Javy Vazquez or AJ Burnett, a pitcher with above average that stuff doesn't really trust it. I see a lot of comps to Justin Verlander and Adam Wainwright floating around but those guys at least dominated their competition at this point of their career whereas Hoffman has yet to demonstrate that type of domination.

 

Brady Aiken:

 

Aiken vs. University City:

 

Aiken's no-hitter vs. Ja Jolla:

 

I really like this kid and he would be my top choice if available at #3, his delivery looks very clean and repeatable, his stuff is plus but on this footage his fastball looks heavier than I remember, relentlessly attacks the hitters and has the look of an ace. If we could nab Aiken to pair with Danish and Sale in 3-4 years we could have a filthy rotation.

 

Tyler Kolek:

 

Kolek video uploaded on 4/7/14:

 

Kolek video uploaded on 3/24/14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxMQT0yhLVc

 

I like Kolek's potential and he already has plus stuff but his size is still a concern for me, he has kind of jerky delivery that causes his control to be erratic which I'm sure can be corrected with the right coaching but doesn't bode well for his long-term health.

 

Based on the recent footage I'd go with Rodon, Aiken, Kolek, Beede, then Hoffman and to be perfectly honest I'd rather take a serious look at other top end college pitchers before pulling the trigger on Hoffman.

 

 

Rodon's biggest issues this season have been the lack of ability to throw strikes consistently, the inability to locate his fastball, and a lack of a third pitch. Hoffman in that video looked like he was struggling with locating his CB against LHB's, but overall he looked pretty good. He has some work to do with the delivery of his CH and extending his stride a bit, but he definitely appears to have the tools. Beede I don't love at 3 as I feel he has the lowest ceiling of the 5. I would pick Aiken, Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, and Beede in that order.

[caulfield12]

If we have $40 million to spend in additional payroll next year, we have plenty of ability to add another starter, a veteran catcher (if Flowers/Phegley disappoint again, there's not an elite one who will be available like McCann this next FA class) and a big bat for DH.

 

Or, a couple of veterans arms for the bullpen.

 

They at least have OPTIONS everywhere....Davidson/Gillaspie at 3rd, Semien/Sanchez/L.Garcia at SS, Semien/Garcia/M. Johnson at 2B, then the possibility of DeAza and Viciedo BOTH returning in 2015, giving you those four outfielders to rotate at DH, along with another veteran hitter off the bench.

 

They could also move Davidson/Gillaspie to 1B, and DH Abreu. In addition, they could decide they're better off holding onto Ramirez...as they control his rights through 2016.

 

Cooper's going to be the best one to make the choice between the two higher schoolers and the two collegiate pitchers. Seems Beede is falling off the map in terms of going 3rd. Ultimately, they'll have two choices of those four, unless something changes dramatically in the next 6-7 weeks.

Edited April 11, 2014 by caulfield12

[Bruce_Blixton]

Rodon's biggest issues this season have been the lack of ability to throw strikes consistently, the inability to locate his fastball, and a lack of a third pitch. Hoffman in that video looked like he was struggling with locating his CB against LHB's, but overall he looked pretty good. He has some work to do with the delivery of his CH and extending his stride a bit, but he definitely appears to have the tools. Beede I don't love at 3 as I feel he has the lowest ceiling of the 5. I would pick Aiken, Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, and Beede in that order.

 

Hoffman and Rodon seem to be facing similar issues this season with control, I guess I just prefer Rodon's approach more than Hoffman's. Rodon looks to be more fearless than Hoffman which I think is an essential trait for an ace or #2. Rodon, Aiken and Kolek all went after the hitters, Hoffman looked hesitant like he was trying to paint the corners which suggests to me a lack of confidence in his stuff.

[Marty34]

Marty, perhaps you would understand this better with an illustration. Let's look at all the high school position players drafted in slots 3 to 6 (so Sox pick plus some reach bandwidth) of the 1st round in recent years, and see how long it took them to reach the majors...

 

2013

P5, OF Clint Frazier, CLE - Hasn't reached majors, not yet assigned, played partial Rk ball season, multiple years away if he makes it

 

2012

P6, OF Albert Almora, CHC - Hasn't reached majors, in A ball now, mutliple years away if he makes it

 

2011

P5, OF Bubba Starling, KCR - Hasn't reached majors, struggling in A ball 3 years after draft, at least 2 more years away if he makes it

 

2010

P3, INF Manny Machado, BAL - Reached majors in late '12 (2 years after draft), major league regular

 

2009

P3, OF Donovan Tate, SDP - Never reached majors, out of baseball

 

2008

P3, INF Eric Hosmer, KCR - Reached majors in 2011 (3 years after draft), now a major league regular

P6, C Kyle Skipworth, FLA - Reached majors briefly in 2013 (5 years after draft), back in AAA now, has never put it together

 

2007

P3, INF/OF Josh Vitters, CHC - Reached in 2012 (5 years after draft), marginal prospect at this point, hasn't been back

 

2006

none

 

2005

none

 

2004

none

 

2003

P5, OF Chris Lubanksi, KCR - Never reached majors, out of baseball

P6, OF Ryan Harvey, CHC - Never reached majors, out of baseball

 

Now, what this should show you, is a few things. One, position players in slots 3-6 out of high school are very unusual picks, because of the risk and long development time. Two, out of the 10 players (7 of which have had any sort of real look yet), 3 never even reached the majors. The other 4 with any real dev time to work with took 2, 3, 5 and 5 years to make it. From 2011, Starling arrives no earlier than 2015 and more likely 2016 or later - 4-5 years from draft, BEST case. From 2012, Almora is still in A ball and needs multiple years more - so he's 4-5 years minimum as well. Frazier is so new he's probably not work discussing.

 

Basically, taking any position player in the draft out of high school with that high a pick is little better than a 50/50 on them even making it, and for those that do, they take typically 4 to 5 years to get there (Machado being the one outlier). And by the way, most of these guys are not CATCHERS - a position requiring significantly MORE development time.

 

Bottom line, if you draft a high school catcher with this pick, you can expect a roughly 50% likelihood of full-on bust, and if he even makes it, count on at least 4 or 5 years to get to the majors.

 

Now ask yourself... if you have said - your own post - that you don't even trust pitchers in A ball to be part of any plans... how can you possibly think it is a good idea to change your draft plans for the 3rd overall pick based on an injury on the major league roster?

 

The Garcia injury closes the gap between needing an impact bat or a pitcher in my view. If the college pitcher that they want is there they should take him, but if it comes down to a HS pitcher that's going to three years to develop or a bat that is going to take three years to develop there is little difference in need.

[caulfield12]

That's like saying if Courtney Hawkins plays like the MVP of the Carolina League, we shouldn't draft a bat even if he was the BPA and our team ERA wasn't 14th/15th.

Edited April 11, 2014 by caulfield12