2014 Draft class

[harfman77]

That's really tough. I personally would prefer Aiken, but I think the Sox prefer Hoffman because he will be ready to help the big league club sooner than Aiken would.

 

Tough call for me, but I have not seen them pitch the way the Sox scouts have. They could both be three years away from the rotation, they both have top shelf ceilings and their floors are about as low as you would consider for the #3 pick. I call them both up and see which one will sign for the best deal and take that one and use the extra money to sign someone that slips from the first round.

[shakes]

Scott Boras as his agent and/or advisor simply cannot be overstated, and it is absolutely a concern. Unlike college seniors, Rodon has leverage still as a junior, and if he's requesting #1 overall money no matter what and he won't sign otherwise, and the Sox feel he'll need a year or two in the minors (so they can't do the fast track thing), then it becomes incredibly tricky to figure that out.

 

If you can get the best talent in the draft at 3 you have to make it work. Hahn is a creative guy and I trust the Sox pitching development if they needed to fast track a pitcher. He could take the same route Sale did.

 

[witesoxfan]

If you can get the best talent in the draft at 3 you have to make it work. Hahn is a creative guy and I trust the Sox pitching development if they needed to fast track a pitcher. He could take the same route Sale did.

 

He simply might not be ready for that. The ball in the minors and majors is far different than it is in college with recessed seams.

 

Here's where I'm at: if you view Rodon as a 65 but he will only sign for $8 mill, and Hoffman as a 60, but Hoffman is willing to sign for $5 mill, you take Hoffman because that additional $3 mill will allow you draft others later in the draft who fall rather than taking signability guys or below slot guys because you have to without being penalized.

Edited April 18, 2014 by witesoxfan

[Balta1701]

He simply might not be ready for that. The ball in the minors and majors is far different than it is in college with recessed seams.

 

Here's where I'm at: if you view Rodon as a 65 but he will only sign for $8 mill, and Hoffman as a 60, but Hoffman is willing to sign for $5 mill, you take Hoffman because that additional $3 mill will allow you draft others later in the draft who fall rather than taking signability guys or below slot guys because you have to without being penalized.

And if Rondon will only sign for $8 million, if he's not picked #1 he'll be going back to college for another year, potentially costing him a year of free-agency down the road.

[witesoxfan]

And if Rondon will only sign for $8 million, if he's not picked #1 he'll be going back to college for another year, potentially costing him a year of free-agency down the road.

 

Of course, that's also assuming he stays healthy and pitches to his capability, which is not a given either. $8 million versus $5 million versus nothing right now is the bigger difference in this equation, but it's something Boras has advised his clients to do in the past. That injury could also strike at any point between now and 14 months from now as well.

 

If the Sox know they can get Rodon for a fair price, then I have no problem with it, but that's assuming a lot.

Edited April 18, 2014 by witesoxfan

[Balta1701]

Of course, that's also assuming he stays healthy and pitches to his capability, which is not a given either. $8 million versus $5 million versus nothing right now is the bigger difference in this equation, but it's something Boras has advised his clients to do in the past. That injury could also strike at any point between now and 14 months from now as well.

 

If the Sox know they can get Rodon for a fair price, then I have no problem with it, but that's assuming a lot.

Key thing I mean to stress there: the entire bonus pool for the top 10 picks of the team picking 4th is $8,352,200. If he's insisting on $8 million, it literally becomes impossible to draft him anywhere but the top. If he doesn't go #1/2 and he insists on $8 million, he cannot be drafted this year.

[Marty34]

Nice write up on Rodon can't vouche for the source

 

This quote from the article is great, but it reads like Boras' negotiating stance:

 

Rodon’s been atop the 2014 prospect rankings for long enough that people want to poke holes in his resume, but at this stage Rodon is a better prospect than either of the two most recent college hurlers taken first in the draft, Gerrit Cole or Mark Appel.

 

Rodon's mechanics nag me, don't like his follow through seems like it would put a lot of stress on his arm.

 

Video

[Chisoxfn]

A week ago no one wanted Hoffman and he was a fringe top-10 guy. Now everyone is cool with taking him #3. lol. I'm kind of excited not only for the draft, but just to get these yes-no-yes-maybe-yes-meh-no-yes conversations over with.

I've always been high on Hoffman / Kolek. Those have been my top 2 for a while.

[Quin]

Nice write up on Rodon can't vouche for the source

 

This quote from the article is great, but it reads like Boras' negotiating stance:

 

 

 

Rodon's mechanics nag me, don't like his follow through seems like it would put a lot of stress on his arm.

 

Video

 

I think Rodon is somewhere in between this write up and the what his dropped value is.

 

If you're the Sox...you go all out to get him to agree to a reasonable deal. If he signs for $5M with the promise of an MLB appearance in 2014? Do it.

 

Someone said it earlier, but a first three picks of Rodon, Jakson Reetz, and Conor's brother would outstanding.

 

[Chisoxfn]

If the 1-1 and 1-2 went Rodon and Kolek, who would people want at 3 - Aiken or Hoffman?

Aiken is a great talent but so is Hoffman and he's so much further along. I'm taking Hoffman. Only one of those guys I might take over Hoffman is Kolek who I just love. A lot more downside risk though. Hoffman has some serious upside with more work and coaching and I like the Sox history of helping pitchers with that sort of stuff.

[DirtySox]

Chris Crawford ‏@CrawfordChrisV 6m

Carlos Rodon through 4: 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 1 K against Boston College.

 

 

Meh.

Edited April 18, 2014 by DirtySox

[hi8is]

Chris Crawford ‏@CrawfordChrisV 6m

Carlos Rodon through 4: 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 1 K against Boston College.

 

 

Meh.

He's killin it! YES!!

[DirtySox]

John Manuel ‏@johnmanuelba 3m

Rodon is done. Jon Olczak in. Rodon's line: 8 IP 6 H 1 R/ER 3 BB 7 SO 1 HBP 115 pitches. #MLBDraft

 

[fathom]

Beede got crushed again tonight. He better not even be in consideration for the 3rd pick.

[oldsox]

My understanding of Boros' negotiationg style is not to give away his dollar requirements prior to draft day.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Key thing I mean to stress there: the entire bonus pool for the top 10 picks of the team picking 4th is $8,352,200. If he's insisting on $8 million, it literally becomes impossible to draft him anywhere but the top. If he doesn't go #1/2 and he insists on $8 million, he cannot be drafted this year.

 

 

Sox actually have a little over $9 million to spend on the draft. I still agree with your point but it's more than $8,352,200.

[CyAcosta41]

It would be unlikely -- historically unlikely -- for the two H.S. kids to go 1-1 and 1-2.

 

But suppose they did ... and the Sox had the option to choose between Rodon and Hoffman?

 

First of all -- GREAT problem to have. We know the Sox lean in favor of more proven college pitching over high school pitching. The Sox rarely have the opportunity to draft this high and their "be competitive each year" approach makes it unlikely they're drafting this high very often, if ever. Even if the Hahn regime is new, the others (KW, JR, etc.) are still involved, especially with something so important to the franchise. This is a team that has traditionally been VERY conservative about pitching (other than being somewhat more open-minded about pitching styles -- see, Sale, Peavy, Danish). Given that, I simply can't see them taking a huge gamble on a H.S. pitcher when they also really like some of the college arms.

 

So, if that's true, it's Christmas Day for the Sox if Aiken and Kolek are off the board and they can choose between Rodon and Hoffman.

 

Nationally and even here on Soxtalk, both college pitchers have their defenders and detractors. While Rodon may garner more over-the-top superlatives than does Hoffman -- (a) it's not as if Rodon doesn't have his critics (and more are popping up all the time); and (b) Hoffman has many very strong boosters as well (with the Verlander comps; the #1 starter stuff comments; the workhorse body/arm comments).

 

If this is truly the choice -- Rodon vs Hoffman -- if I were the betting man (that I am), I'd lay good money that the Sox take Hoffman. And with very little discussion.

 

Lots of reasons/feelings for this, the biggies being: (1) I think the Sox love the workhorse frame concept, all other things being equal; (2) the Boras factor (IMO) is bigger than most people will admit -- they won't totally steer clear of a Boras client, but it's undoubtedly a big-time tie-breaker in close calls (Boras is a negative not only for the initial money demands, but also because of the certainty that he's going to try to get his client to the open market at the very first opportunity -- this last point is absolutely contrary to what the Sox are setting themselves up to do); and (3) the Sox truly need the right-handed stud (Hoffman over the L.H. Rodon) to pair with lefties Sale/Quintana (anticipating people saying, you don't care about that with a draft pick -- I believe you DO care when you're talking about a #3 pick, especially when that #3 pick is a college pitcher, someone who you're drafting because you believe him to be a fast-rising stud).

 

Anyway, just my take. Reasonable minds can and will differ.

[caulfield12]

All the things in that last paragraph are logical.

 

You can add concerns about Rodon's over-reliance on the slider, and that being his dominant/outpitch, the very high probability he ends up like Liriano in TJ territory because of the torque on the elbow. Or throwing it a lot less and having to become effective by somehow changing or improving his repertoire of other pitches (Liriano going more to sinking fastballs, playing into strong infield).

 

We really do need that powerhouse RH complement to go with Sale/Quintana...it's logical.

 

The point about Boras taking him FA after six years and going against the tide of all these younger players buying out free agency years 1-2-3, that's as strong a point as any. It goes 100% against what we've managed to put together with Sale and Quintana.

Edited April 19, 2014 by caulfield12

[Marty34]

I think the nightmare scenario for the Sox is Hoffman gone and Rodon still on the board. They very well may like one of those HS arms more than Rodon, but given their way of rebuilding how could the pass on Rodon? They'd get a ton of heat.

[dasox24]

Sox actually have a little over $9 million to spend on the draft. I still agree with your point but it's more than $8,352,200.

Right. Balta was talking about the team picking 4th (the Cubs). If he slips past 4, then no team after that could offer him $8M to sign because their whole allotment will be less than that.

Edited April 19, 2014 by dasox24

[southsider2k5]

It would be unlikely -- historically unlikely -- for the two H.S. kids to go 1-1 and 1-2.

But suppose they did ... and the Sox had the option to choose between Rodon and Hoffman?

 

First of all -- GREAT problem to have. We know the Sox lean in favor of more proven college pitching over high school pitching. The Sox rarely have the opportunity to draft this high and their "be competitive each year" approach makes it unlikely they're drafting this high very often, if ever. Even if the Hahn regime is new, the others (KW, JR, etc.) are still involved, especially with something so important to the franchise. This is a team that has traditionally been VERY conservative about pitching (other than being somewhat more open-minded about pitching styles -- see, Sale, Peavy, Danish). Given that, I simply can't see them taking a huge gamble on a H.S. pitcher when they also really like some of the college arms.

 

So, if that's true, it's Christmas Day for the Sox if Aiken and Kolek are off the board and they can choose between Rodon and Hoffman.

 

Nationally and even here on Soxtalk, both college pitchers have their defenders and detractors. While Rodon may garner more over-the-top superlatives than does Hoffman -- (a) it's not as if Rodon doesn't have his critics (and more are popping up all the time); and (b) Hoffman has many very strong boosters as well (with the Verlander comps; the #1 starter stuff comments; the workhorse body/arm comments).

 

If this is truly the choice -- Rodon vs Hoffman -- if I were the betting man (that I am), I'd lay good money that the Sox take Hoffman. And with very little discussion.

 

Lots of reasons/feelings for this, the biggies being: (1) I think the Sox love the workhorse frame concept, all other things being equal; (2) the Boras factor (IMO) is bigger than most people will admit -- they won't totally steer clear of a Boras client, but it's undoubtedly a big-time tie-breaker in close calls (Boras is a negative not only for the initial money demands, but also because of the certainty that he's going to try to get his client to the open market at the very first opportunity -- this last point is absolutely contrary to what the Sox are setting themselves up to do); and (3) the Sox truly need the right-handed stud (Hoffman over the L.H. Rodon) to pair with lefties Sale/Quintana (anticipating people saying, you don't care about that with a draft pick -- I believe you DO care when you're talking about a #3 pick, especially when that #3 pick is a college pitcher, someone who you're drafting because you believe him to be a fast-rising stud).

 

Anyway, just my take. Reasonable minds can and will differ.

 

It all comes down to contract demands at that point.

 

[caulfield12]

When's the last time Boras represented a collegiate pitcher in the Top 5-10 picks and it really worked out well/fortuitously for that team to have drafted that pitcher?

 

In other words, if they had it to do it all over again, how many of his clients have turned out to have been worth the headaches and hassles for their acquiring clubs?

[ptatc]

Nice write up on Rodon can't vouche for the source

 

This quote from the article is great, but it reads like Boras' negotiating stance:

 

 

 

Rodon's mechanics nag me, don't like his follow through seems like it would put a lot of stress on his arm.

 

Video

I'm with you on this one. He doesn't flex his trunk similar to Peavy. However his hand does end up by his hip instead of higher up like Peavy. I wouldn't discount him but it is a little of a concern.

[Marty34]

I'm with you on this one. He doesn't flex his trunk similar to Peavy. However his hand does end up by his hip instead of higher up like Peavy. I wouldn't discount him but it is a little of a concern.

 

I was trying to think of a guy who threw like that, Peavy's a good catch. Left-handers, can't think of one.

[Balta1701]

When's the last time Boras represented a collegiate pitcher in the Top 5-10 picks and it really worked out well/fortuitously for that team to have drafted that pitcher?

 

In other words, if they had it to do it all over again, how many of his clients have turned out to have been worth the headaches and hassles for their acquiring clubs?

i think the Nationals are content with the pitcher they got.