2014 Draft class

[Marty34]

Don't really buy that either. 8 years ago we had our manager regularly joking about hiding from the giant rats every time he went to Wrigley, and hell, the fact that the Trib owned the Cubs gave Sox fans a regular reason to complain about unfair coverage.

 

I don't think changing the amateur free agent signing rules went unnoticed by the Cubs.

[royoung]

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 15m

 

Carlos Rodon struck out 15 with one run over 9 IP in his last start. 26 of 27 outs were Ks or grounders. Up to 97 mph, acc to @jimshonerdBA.

 

The old Rodon is back. Good

[Quin]

Stony talking about Rodon now.

 

I really want Rodon.

[royoung]

Danny Knobler ‏@DannyKnobler 7m

One scout after watching East Carolina’s Jeff Hoffman: “This guy has to be Justin Verlander’s brother.” Cubs execs were in to see him.

 

If Hoffman's soreness is truly just soreness, similar to what Chris Sale is experiencing, I don't think it effects his stock too much. With Rodon seemingly back in 1-1 form, I expect him to go first or second, giving us a choice between either Aiken/Kolek or Hoffman. Assuming Hoffman's injury is nothing that would linger, I like him over Kolek. Aiken is still my #1 overall, but I don't think he falls to us.

[oneofthemikes]

Danny Knobler ‏@DannyKnobler 7m

One scout after watching East Carolina’s Jeff Hoffman: “This guy has to be Justin Verlander’s brother.” Cubs execs were in to see him.

 

If Hoffman's soreness is truly just soreness, similar to what Chris Sale is experiencing, I don't think it effects his stock too much. With Rodon seemingly back in 1-1 form, I expect him to go first or second, giving us a choice between either Aiken/Kolek or Hoffman. Assuming Hoffman's injury is nothing that would linger, I like him over Kolek. Aiken is still my #1 overall, but I don't think he falls to us.

 

I agree with your assessment.

 

My preference list at the moment would be:

 

1. Aiken

2. Rodon (depending on his cost)

3. Hoffman

4. Kolek

[Balta1701]

Do MLB teams get to do any sort of physical work with draft picks (i.e. checking out Hoffman's arm) prior to the draft?

[NorthSideSox72]

Do MLB teams get to do any sort of physical work with draft picks (i.e. checking out Hoffman's arm) prior to the draft?

I believe the answer is, technically no. The players can certainly go get one and make it public if they choose. But either way, I think (could be wrong) you draft a guy then do a physical. Contract offer may then be effected by the physical.

 

Again, could be wrong, someone can correct me.

 

[dasox24]

I believe the answer is, technically no. The players can certainly go get one and make it public if they choose. But either way, I think (could be wrong) you draft a guy then do a physical. Contract offer may then be effected by the physical.

 

Again, could be wrong, someone can correct me.

Based on the way baseball operates, I'm sure you are correct. But it seems dumb. You'd think the league would want to protect it's organizations by having all players take physicals. Like the NFL and NBA do.

[witesoxfan]

Based on the way baseball operates, I'm sure you are correct. But it seems dumb. You'd think the league would want to protect it's organizations by having all players take physicals. Like the NFL and NBA do.

 

The MLBPA is also a lot stronger than both of those two. Nothing that will improve value can be found, but all sorts of bad can happen. Plus, because players can be drafted and then choose not to sign, it can be damaging to the person. If a team gives a high schooler a physical and it turns out that he has a torn labrum, why would Long Beach State (or whoever) leave their scholarship on the table? Same goes for a college junior or draft eligible sophomore too.

 

I'm reminded of the Barret Loux situation where he was drafted 6th overall and then that exact situation came up, and the DBacks no longer wanted to sign him to his allocated value.

[maggsmaggs]

The MLBPA is also a lot stronger than both of those two. Nothing that will improve value can be found, but all sorts of bad can happen. Plus, because players can be drafted and then choose not to sign, it can be damaging to the person. If a team gives a high schooler a physical and it turns out that he has a torn labrum, why would Long Beach State (or whoever) leave their scholarship on the table? Same goes for a college junior or draft eligible sophomore too.

 

I'm reminded of the Barret Loux situation where he was drafted 6th overall and then that exact situation came up, and the DBacks no longer wanted to sign him to his allocated value.

You can be sure the scouts are all over Hoffman's coaches/Hoffman/his advisor to get the most accurate info about the injury. It's a double-edged sword. On the one hand, full disclosure can help keep Hoffman's stock strong (if the injury in benign). On the other hand, if it's serious, full disclosure would harm him.

[Eminor3rd]

Gotta say no to Hoffman at this point. I don't want ANY injury flags for a guy who is valued appropriately at the slot. In other words, I think it can make sense to go for an injury guy if his talent represents something higher than the slot that you get him (i.e. Washington and Giolito), but when he's a #3 talent if healthy anyway, I think you have to go for another #3 talent.

[Bruce_Blixton]

Gotta say no to Hoffman at this point. I don't want ANY injury flags for a guy who is valued appropriately at the slot. In other words, I think it can make sense to go for an injury guy if his talent represents something higher than the slot that you get him (i.e. Washington and Giolito), but when he's a #3 talent if healthy anyway, I think you have to go for another #3 talent.

 

QFT.

[royoung]

Gotta say no to Hoffman at this point. I don't want ANY injury flags for a guy who is valued appropriately at the slot. In other words, I think it can make sense to go for an injury guy if his talent represents something higher than the slot that you get him (i.e. Washington and Giolito), but when he's a #3 talent if healthy anyway, I think you have to go for another #3 talent.

 

A lot of it depends on how he pitches when he returns. He is only reportedly missing two starts. If you see a dip in velocity, change in mechanics, decrease in movement of his pitches, then sure that would raise a huge red flag. But if he comes back and pitches like normal, I can't see how you could knock him for missing a couple starts. It's understandable that Hoffman and his coaches (for his sake) would want to be as conservative as possible with the draft coming up. Better that then the pitch counts Rodon is racking up.

[Chisoxfn]

QFT.

If you weren't going to draft a guy because he missed a start or two due to an injury, you probably wouldn't be able to take anyone. I think it comes down to what drove the injury and is it long term or serious in nature. If it isn't, you shouldn't not draft him if you think he is the guy. Plus, for anyone pushing Rondon over Hoffman due to injury concerns, you should probably rethink that as there are other concerns over Rondon, including the impacts of the high pitch count. On the flipside, if he stays strong in his mechanics, it might not impact him and you also have to remember that college pitchers get the benefit of extra rest (vs. mlb starters).

[caulfield12]

It's crazy how this has shifted on an almost daily basis.

 

Kolek could be the next Roger Clemens or the next Colt Griffin/David Clyde.

 

Would love to hear Cooper's insights, which, of course, we will never get until after the draft...but what he's telling Hahn and the front office about his perceptions of all four of those guys from watching video.

 

 

Rodon is more polished, the more finished product and could be ready to contribute this season even...Hoffman is more of a 2016-2017 timetable guy with the higher upside but the more realistic possibility never to live up to the hype, either.

 

Of course, multiply that by 5X for Kolek and 3X for Aiken.

Edited April 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

This is where Balta says who cares?

 

If it doesn't matter, the White Sox would be willing to take Kolek or Aiken at #3 (if available), and yet almost nobody believes they would actually do that with their compressed timeframe for getting back to respectability and not being second to last in the majors for attendance for the next three years. Only if the White Sox are willing to go out and spend the money for a Masterson or Shields to bridge the rotation to contention can they really afford to go after a high school starting pitcher. And having three lefties in the rotation makes Rodon just a little bit less of a "must have" than it would be if the White Sox had five righties.

 

So obviously it's not the PBA, or it would be Kolek/Aiken/Rodon at 3. Certainly not Turner, when there are 100 arguments for Jackson over him. Heck, most draft boards now expect Turner to be at the end of the 1st/start of the 2nd round.

I don't think it' so much the timeframe as it is the probability of success. The high end college pitcher still has a better chance of reaching the MLB as the high end HS.

[Marty34]

I bet the Sox think a sore Hoffman is still better than dealing with Boras.

[Bruce_Blixton]

If you weren't going to draft a guy because he missed a start or two due to an injury, you probably wouldn't be able to take anyone. I think it comes down to what drove the injury and is it long term or serious in nature. If it isn't, you shouldn't not draft him if you think he is the guy. Plus, for anyone pushing Rondon over Hoffman due to injury concerns, you should probably rethink that as there are other concerns over Rondon, including the impacts of the high pitch count. On the flipside, if he stays strong in his mechanics, it might not impact him and you also have to remember that college pitchers get the benefit of extra rest (vs. mlb starters).

 

I've never been a fan of Hoffman and this recent injury just furthers my skepticism of him. I know a lot of people covering the draft as well as a lot of posters here are very high on Hoffman's physical tools and projectability but you just can't ignore his lack of dominance against college competition. It's also concerning that right after he finally has a seemingly breakthrough start he gets shut down for a week with arm soreness. Other than a strong showing in the Cape Cod League he's never been able to consistently dominate his opposition the way that most aces naturally do.

 

My personal preference in this year's draft is Aiken, Kolek, Jackson (I think he'll have a very successful career regardless of position), Rodon (posters have made very good points regarding his recent pitch counts and reliance on the slider which could portend serious arm injury) and then Hoffman. If the Sox end up drafting Hoffman at #3 I hope that he proves my doubts in his ability to be unfounded but every time watch video of him I come away unimpressed.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

What is Hoffman going off on twitter about???

 

Jeff Hoffman ‏@hoff_23 8m

ECU has a baseball team?

 

Jeff Hoffman ‏@hoff_23 now

Ok it's official. We don't exist. #undaunted

 

Jeff Hoffman ‏@hoff_23 now

(1/2) An upset is when you beat a team that's BETTER than you. Beating a team that's worse than you and calling it an upset just belittles

 

Jeff Hoffman ‏@hoff_23 now

(2/2) your own program

[flavum]

5 weeks from the draft, probably not a smart move doing anything that can be perceived immature.

[caulfield12]

Good use of "belittles" though.

 

Was looking for a status update on Hoffman, seems all the descriptions are "mild shoulder soreness."

 

Shoulder is a scary word with pitchers.

 

 

 

Although Texas Christian lefthander Brandon Finnegan was removed from the third inning of his Friday start with shoulder soreness, he is expected to make his next start.

 

 

Jeff Hoffman (Photo by Carl Kline).

 

• East Carolina righthander Jeff Hoffman was shut down for 8-10 days, coach Billy Godwin announced Thursday.

 

“He said that he had mild arm soreness Thursday in his bullpen,” Godwin said. “We had the team orthopedic look at him. We are erring on the side of caution here and you can understand why. We just felt that 8-10 days would be good for him to have off.”

 

Hoffman was coming off his best start of the season in which he struck out 16. He is likely to make his next start on May 9 at Southern Mississippi and will have one more regular season start at home against Texas-Arlington.

 

www.baseballamerica.com

Edited April 29, 2014 by caulfield12

[maggsmaggs]

Good use of "belittles" though.

Jeff Hoffman (Photo by Carl Kline).

 

• East Carolina righthander Jeff Hoffman was shut down for 8-10 days, coach Billy Godwin announced Thursday.

 

“He said that he had mild arm soreness Thursday in his bullpen,” Godwin said. “We had the team orthopedic look at him. We are erring on the side of caution here and you can understand why. We just felt that 8-10 days would be good for him to have off.”

 

Hoffman was coming off his best start of the season in which he struck out 16. He is likely to make his next start on May 9 at Southern Mississippi and will have one more regular season start at home against Texas-Arlington.

 

www.baseballamerica.com

 

Seems like East Carolina (who is a fighting for an NCAA Tournament position) is handling Hoffman way better than NC State and Rodon. Whereas Rodon is throwing 130-plus pitches every time out, East Carolina knows Hoffman's future is too handle him haphazardly.

Edited April 29, 2014 by maggsmaggs

[Eminor3rd]

If you weren't going to draft a guy because he missed a start or two due to an injury, you probably wouldn't be able to take anyone. I think it comes down to what drove the injury and is it long term or serious in nature. If it isn't, you shouldn't not draft him if you think he is the guy. Plus, for anyone pushing Rondon over Hoffman due to injury concerns, you should probably rethink that as there are other concerns over Rondon, including the impacts of the high pitch count. On the flipside, if he stays strong in his mechanics, it might not impact him and you also have to remember that college pitchers get the benefit of extra rest (vs. mlb starters).

 

So every top tier starter has missed a couple starts due to an injury this season?

 

I mean if he comes out and ruins everyone from now until the draft and says nothing hurts and you believe him, sure. But if there are any question marks at all, I'm looking elsewhere. Just IMO, I guess.

[southsider2k5]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/jonath...p;vkey=news_mlb

 

MLB.com polled nine scouting directors and national scouts and asked two questions: Who do you think the Astros will take No. 1 overall? Who would you take if you had the top pick?

 

Rodon only received one vote among those who were polled when it came to selecting their top pick. Aiken and Kolek each received four. Kolek was the top high school arm coming in and has only improved his stock. Aiken at first seemed more like a bottom-of-the-top-10 selection until he separated himself this spring.

 

"I think it's Kolek, being a hometown guy," one national scout said. "Rodon has Scott Boras [as an advisor]; you're not going to get a discount there. If it comes down to Kolek and Aiken, it has to come to the guy in your backyard, especially if he's throwing 100 mph."

 

"Aiken's a strike-thrower with a big body, a good delivery and plus pitches. What else would you want?" one scouting director added. "He's an athlete on the mound, too, who just happens to be blessed with a big body."

 

The one thing Aiken's impressive spring might have done, the director posited, is no longer make him a bargain choice.

 

"He's the whole package, and he may be better than them all, anyway," the director said. "He might be too good to cut a deal now."

 

Guessing who the Astros would take was a different exercise than figuring out the choice if it was yours to make. One director asked if he was making the pick for Houston or his own club. In the end, those kinds of variables were left up to each scout who was polled, though the suggestion was made to act as if the selection were being made in a vacuum.

 

Again, the two high schoolers split the vote, with Aiken and Kolek each receiving four. Rodon again got one mention, based on his track record.

 

"I would stick with him," a national scout said of Rodon. "I know what I saw last year, and he was as good a left-handed pitcher as I've seen in my career. Assuming he's healthy, I'd stick with Rodon."

 

But that was obviously a minority opinion. One made a fairly strong case for Aiken, pointing out that because of his feel for pitching, he might not take as long to move up as the typical prep pitcher.

 

"Right now, I'm leaning toward Aiken," a scouting director said. "I think he's taken a jump a little bit, stuff-wise, and I loved him coming in. He's got command, he's got three pitches. I know he's in high school, and he's 17, but put him in a college uniform and how much different would he be than these college guys?"

[LDF]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/jonath...p;vkey=news_mlb

 

with everything being equal, the wild card is, who is advising him >>> Borassssss ....