2014 Draft class

[Dick Allen]

Unless Hoffman becomes Verlander II and Rodon is simply another version of Francisco Liriano, tantalizingly talented, but, in the end, flawed.

 

Hoffman has at least two more starts before the draft, the first will be this Friday, if ECU reports are accurate.

 

Of course, there's no guarantee that Rodon/Hoffman both won't fall apart and Mr. Jackson becomes Joe Mauer Jr. with the Cubs.

Then what player drafted had no injury concern? You draft the player your scouts tell you will be the best player at #3. Being afraid to draft a Scott Boras advised player with really not a lot of leverage that makes much sense is silly.

[caulfield12]

Then what player drafted had no injury concern? You draft the player your scouts tell you will be the best player at #3. Being afraid to draft a Scott Boras advised player with really not a lot of leverage that makes much sense is silly.

 

 

Except you're dealing with multiple variables or factors.

 

On paper, Rodon would SEEM to be the higher risk, just like all the teams assumed that Sale (or even Danish) would be.

 

In reality, the Strasburgs/Priors/Hoffmans get hurt just as often, seemingly.

 

 

Or someone like Jake Peavy, with a very violent delivery. You're not going to like my answer, but I'm going to defer to Cooper and PTAC and Schneider on this and make a calculated guess.

 

On one hand, the almost 100% certainty that we wouldn't be able to keep Rodon after Year 6. On the other, the fact that the recent injury concern/s make Hoffman a much easier signing and allow you to allocate even more money for later selections.

 

Of course, all things being equal, you take Rodon. But all things certainly aren't equal here. Of course, were the White Sox to select Hoffman with these recent shoulder injury concerns hanging over his head, and were he to get seriously injured within the next 12-18 months, they'd look quite stupid. And yet on some recent draft boards, he's still going in the Top 5 (Twins).

 

At this point, I'd actually prefer to take the guessing out of it and eliminate Hoffman entirely, but we have to wait and let things play out first with the rest of his collegiate season.

 

[DirtySox]

Cubs would be taking Jackson, with Hoffman going to the Twins. Hmmmm....

 

This isn't a mock. These are draft rankings.

[Dick Allen]

Except you're dealing with multiple variables or factors.

 

On paper, Rodon would SEEM to be the higher risk, just like all the teams assumed that Sale (or even Danish) would be.

 

In reality, the Strasburgs/Priors/Hoffmans get hurt just as often, seemingly.

 

 

Or someone like Jake Peavy, with a very violent delivery. You're not going to like my answer, but I'm going to defer to Cooper and PTAC and Schneider on this and make a calculated guess.

 

On one hand, the almost 100% certainty that we wouldn't be able to keep Rodon after Year 6. On the other, the fact that the recent injury concern/s make Hoffman a much easier signing and allow you to allocate even more money for later selections.

 

Of course, all things being equal, you take Rodon. But all things certainly aren't equal here. Of course, were the White Sox to select Hoffman with these recent shoulder injury concerns hanging over his head, and were he to get seriously injured within the next 12-18 months, they'd look quite stupid. And yet on some recent draft boards, he's still going in the Top 5 (Twins).

 

At this point, I'd actually prefer to take the guessing out of it and eliminate Hoffman entirely, but we have to wait and let things play out first with the rest of his collegiate season.

If you are afraid of a possible injury, that pretty much eliminates every player. Might as well sit out the draft.

[caulfield12]

If you are afraid of a possible injury, that pretty much eliminates every player. Might as well sit out the draft.

 

 

Which is why we're not the ones making the selection, lol...

 

Just Monday Morning Quarterbacking.

[The Ginger Kid]

I think Aiken will be on the board for the Sox -- Houston will grab Kolek and Miami Rodon, IMO.

[royoung]

Christopher Crawford of ESPN.com highlighted Brady Aiken and Carlos Rodon today in his MLB Draft Blog. Below are some quotes of note...

 

On Aiken...

 

 

Aiken went the distance against Patrick Henry HS on Wednesday, giving up just one run on three hits while striking out nine in the complete game victory. For the year, Aiken has struck out 80 hitters and walked just seven, and has posted a 0.80 ERA for the season in 42 2/3 innings. What has impressed scouts the most, however, is his poise and feel for pitching, and both of these traits were on display once again this week.

 

"Even when [Aiken's] stuff isn't at its best, he still impresses you," an AL West scout said. "He didn't have top-pick stuff on Wednesday in my opinion, the breaking ball was okay and the fastball command was above-average. Andjust based on pure stuff he isn't even the best prep pitcher in this class, I think that's Touki Toussaint [of Miami's Coral Springs Christian HS].

 

"But that's not to say that Aiken's stuff isn't fantastic, because it is. And it plays up because the kid just knows how to pitch. Having three 60 pitches [on the 20-80 scouting scale] means nothing if you can't command them, and he does it as well as any prep pitcher I've seen in this decade. There's no reason he shouldn't be a top-three pick in this draft."

 

On Rodon....

 

"It was the same Rodon I saw in March and the early part of April," an AL Central scout said. "Plus slider, above-average fastball with mediocre command, average change that he doesn't throw enough. Does that sound to you anything like the No. 1 pick? It doesn't to me. Maybe I just expected too much, but after the glowing reviews I heard about Friday I thought I was going to see the same guy I fell in love with during his freshman year. I did not."

 

It would be a surprise if Rodon or Aiken are still on the board when the Chicago Cubs select with the No. 4 pick, with both the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox as potential suitors for their services, and possibly the Miami Marlins if they do pass on Shepherd (Texas) HS right-hander Tyler Kolek.

[royoung]

I know there has been a lot of talk about Rodon being the top choice for us, but very interesting what an "AL Central scout" had to say on him in the article I quoted. It could be a Twins guy, I suppose, but more than likely it was the White Sox. The more I read, the more I think we'll take Aiken or Kolek, with Hoffman being a wildcard based on his return from injury.

Edited May 5, 2014 by southside hitman

[harfman77]

This weeks stat update, was on vacation last week so including the last two starts:

 

Carlos Rodon - 9 IP 6H 1R 1ER 2BB 15K v GT

v CC - 6.2 IP 5H 0R 0ER 2BB 8K

Season - 12 GS 1.87 ERA 86.2 IP 72H 34R 18ER 28BB 102K

Tyler Beede - 5 IP 2H 0R 0ER 3BB 7K v UGA

v Mizzou 5 IP 7H 3R 3ER 2BB 7K

Season - DNP, DNP

Jeff Hoffman - 8 IP 3H 0R 0ER 1BB 16K

Season - 10 GS 2.94 ERA 67.1 IP 53H 26R 22ER 20BB 72K

Sean Newcomb - 6 IP 3H 0R 0ER 2BB 5K v Binghamton

v UMBC 9 IP 2H 0R 0ER 2BB 9K

Season - 11 GS 0.98 ERA 73.1 IP 36H 10R 8ER 31BB 78K

 

Rodon is turning it on when it counts, have to think he will still be the #1 pick.

[Eminor3rd]

The Angels did. The Mariners picking 2nd were torn, and they were wrong.the Yankees thought he was the best player in the draft.

 

His point is that Trout didn't fall because of signability, he fell because people were wrong about him.

[Eminor3rd]

I am going to bump this. I would like to hear opinions.. There were at least 4 scouts at the game today video taping his at bats, 2 of which were home runs batting Right handed.. And he has more power left handed. Both were hit at least 390 feet.

 

Generally speaking, I am ALL for drafting positionless, one tool guys that can hit in the later rounds. I think the hit tool is the most important and that our team has been a case study on it being harder to teach than people want it to be.

 

After about round 4, give me Dan Vogelbachs and the other teams can have the Kennyn Walkers.

[The Ginger Kid]

Generally speaking, I am ALL for drafting positionless, one tool guys that can hit in the later rounds. I think the hit tool is the most important and that our team has been a case study on it being harder to teach than people want it to be.

 

After about round 4, give me Dan Vogelbachs and the other teams can have the Kennyn Walkers.

Is it wrong to assume that the Walkers and Mitchells were a heavy favorite of KW, the type of player he looked to develop? All around athletes who showed promise at baseball? Seems like it is/was.

[Eminor3rd]

Is it wrong to assume that the Walkers and Mitchells were a heavy favorite of KW, the type of player he looked to develop? All around athletes who showed promise at baseball? Seems like it is/was.

 

Oh, absolutely. I'm just saying that I disagree with it, or at least have learned from him being wrong about/our system being bad at it.

[oneofthemikes]

FWIW, the newest mock on Bleacherreport.com has Rodon to Houston, Kolek to Miami, and Aiken headed to the South Side. I would love to see that end up happening. It might take him a bit longer to reach the majors but his stuff and understanding of how to pitch are outstanding for his age.

[BigHurt3515]

Generally speaking, I am ALL for drafting positionless, one tool guys that can hit in the later rounds. I think the hit tool is the most important and that our team has been a case study on it being harder to teach than people want it to be.

 

After about round 4, give me Dan Vogelbachs and the other teams can have the Kennyn Walkers.

 

I asked one of the scouts at the game the other day right after he hit the home run where he thought Tellor would go and said since he is a senior not previously drafted he would probably go after the 15th round just because how the draft is set up with the whole money aspect that I don't know much about. He would be someone a team would draft because they can sign him for less money and try to use more money on guys they are trying to lure away from college or their senior year.

[southsider2k5]

I asked one of the scouts at the game the other day right after he hit the home run where he thought Tellor would go and said since he is a senior not previously drafted he would probably go after the 15th round just because how the draft is set up with the whole money aspect that I don't know much about. He would be someone a team would draft because they can sign him for less money and try to use more money on guys they are trying to lure away from college or their senior year.

 

You will see more seniors than ever going in the first 10 rounds, because when they sign for a small bonus, the team can use that money to offer extra to an underclassman or HS pick.

[BigHurt3515]

You will see more seniors than ever going in the first 10 rounds, because when they sign for a small bonus, the team can use that money to offer extra to an underclassman or HS pick.

 

That is what I thought he was talking about so I didn't understand why he was saying after Round 15..

[witesoxfan]

That is what I thought he was talking about so I didn't understand why he was saying after Round 15..

 

Teams still don't want to have to pay a lot of money to guys after the 10th round. They are far more of a crapshoot than even the top 10 and are much, much likelier to become organizational players, signing for like a $10,000 signing bonus. Occasionally you will see teams splurge on a guy who falls due to signability concerns, but a lot of these players will be quite a bit less talented than those drafted in front of them, and as a result, they will be passed over for promotions often simply because they were drafted late. If they play well above expectations, then it's a different story entirely, but that's really what you need for them to be considered prospects.

[harfman77]

Very true. I actually asked Laumann at SoxFest about the Sox approach drafting Blough and Blount (I think those were the 9th and 10th round picks) and he acknowledged that it was the plan. I agree with you that other teams will look at this as an inefficiency with the new CBA. Basically, teams are going to waste a couple picks to have an expensive, high reward lottery pick akin to the Sox last year with Michalczewski.

 

This is pretty much the norm now in the draft though. The BJ's were the first to really do it when they had 5 of the top 60 selections in the 2012 draft. They went a little underslot on their first two picks in Davis and Stroman and then picked 5 guys that had signing concerns and then drafted 7 seniors in a row.

[LDF]

This is pretty much the norm now in the draft though. The BJ's were the first to really do it when they had 5 of the top 60 selections in the 2012 draft. They went a little underslot on their first two picks in Davis and Stroman and then picked 5 guys that had signing concerns and then drafted 7 seniors in a row.

 

I would love to see the sox draft position players after the 2 nd round who can make hard contact, not necessary a player who

is all power or nothing swing. a player who has a good understanding of the strike zone, a player who can hit 2 for 1 in h / k

has fewer k's to walks.

 

this might be wishful thinking, but that is what I would like to see.

[DirtySox]

BA's first mock draft will be up Thursday or Friday.

[fathom]

BA's first mock draft will be up Thursday or Friday.

 

Awesome, can't wait for us to overreact!!

[DirtySox]

Awesome, can't wait for us to overreact!!

 

I'm more excited to see the rumors on who other teams are linked to. Barring something unforeseen we largely know which pool of players the Sox will be picking from. Thus far I've only really seen the Twins attached to Nick Gordon, and the Phillies with Gatewood. Should be fun. I love the draft.

[Boopa1219]

You're Rick Hahn and Aiken and Kolek are off the board, who do you take at pick #3?

 

 

[Quin]

You're Rick Hahn and Aiken and Kolek are off the board, who do you take at pick #3?

 

Rodon.