oneofthemikes Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:51 AM) I'd LOVE Nola at say, pick 5 or 6. I can honestly even see an argument for taking him over Kolek or Aiken purely because you fear the uncertainty of HS pitchers. But Nola over Rodon? They're both 1-2 years from having a shot to stick in the majors and Rodon has a way higher ceiling. I bet literally every team would take Rodon over Nola. I believe you are right if all things are equal, but it muddies the water if Rodon would want to sign over slot and Nola would be willing to work a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:54 AM) I've changed my tune on Kolek. Take the upside and hope. If he needs TJS in a year, well, join the club. Take the kid, and draft a college pitcher at 44. Me too. The more I actually watch him and read, the more I love his motion and mechanics and see upper 90's as sustainable and NOT max effort for him. I still prefer Rodon, but if we pop Kolek on draft day, I'll be content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:55 AM) I believe you are right if all things are equal, but it muddies the water if Rodon would want to sign over slot and Nola would be willing to work a deal. It's a consideration, certainly, but IMO, the only way you are better off going underslot in the first 5 picks is if you only see a marginal difference between your cheap guy and expensive guy. Otherwise, you're getting a shot at talent that you simply can't buy any other time of the year. Take the guy and pay him. The upside of the underslot is signing a 30-ish pick at 44. That isn't nothing, but it isn't worth passing on the consensus BPA at #3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royoung Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:33 AM) Lol me too. But I think they'd sign him. He's seen his stock plummet over the course of a year, he won't risk it to be put in a position with even less leverage next year. I understand it's all about stuff and projectability, but I think it's funny people are considering Rodon's season such a disappointment. His numbers improved nearly across the board from last season, lower ERA, walk rate, and homer rate. The only things that spiked were his H/9, but when you decrease walks that will happen, his WHIP only increased slightly. His strikeout rate per nine innings for 2014 was actually above his mythical 2012 freshmen season number (10.67 to 10.60). Honestly I think the biggest reason Rodon's stock fell this year is the incredibly scrutiny that was placed on him and the rise of the other prospects. I personally prefer Aiken, but if we ended up with Rodon we are getting a very, very good pitcher who has been a workhorse under the microscope for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 (edited) QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:54 AM) I've changed my tune on Kolek. Take the upside and hope. If he needs TJS in a year, well, join the club. Take the kid, and draft a college pitcher at 44. Been a fan of his for a while. He's #1 on my board. Sox have the luxury of making a top 3 pick for the first time in decades. I would hope they take a guy who has the best upside they feel in the draft left after the first two picks. Edited June 4, 2014 by SoxAce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Agree with everyone, I feel like I've been reading weaknesses on players for 4 months and only in past week have I come around on each's strength. I feel ecstatic with Rodon, and happy with Aiken, Kolek and even Nola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:08 AM) I understand it's all about stuff and projectability, but I think it's funny people are considering Rodon's season such a disappointment. His numbers improved nearly across the board from last season, lower ERA, walk rate, and homer rate. The only things that spiked were his H/9, but when you decrease walks that will happen, his WHIP only increased slightly. His strikeout rate per nine innings for 2014 was actually above his mythical 2012 freshmen season number (10.67 to 10.60). Honestly I think the biggest reason Rodon's stock fell this year is the incredibly scrutiny that was placed on him and the rise of the other prospects. I personally prefer Aiken, but if we ended up with Rodon we are getting a very, very good pitcher who has been a workhorse under the microscope for a long time. From what I've read/heard on podcasts, the knock on Rodon has been the inconsistency of his stuff. The velocity has fluctuated a lot and there have been starts where he only "flashes" his 80 slider. As always, you fear that kind of inconsistency because pitchers' raw "stuff" tends to decline steadily from the day they are drafted; guys never throw harder than in their early 20's, typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royoung Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:12 AM) From what I've read/heard on podcasts, the knock on Rodon has been the inconsistency of his stuff. The velocity has fluctuated a lot and there have been starts where he only "flashes" his 80 slider. As always, you fear that kind of inconsistency because pitchers' raw "stuff" tends to decline steadily from the day they are drafted; guys never throw harder than in their early 20's, typically. I thought the biggest knock on him this season was his fastball command, I didn't hear many complaints about his slider, aside from overusing it. But the "inconsistency of his stuff" could be a byproduct of the increased attention, if you see every single pitch he throws all year, you aren't going to get eye-popping stuff every outing. My point on Rodon, and again remember I prefer Aiken and would be fine with Kolek, is that he's had 49 starts in college under intense scrutiny and pitched extremely well. Even when is stuff wasn't on, he rarely gets rocked or leaves a game early. Brady Aiken made 11 starts this year against local high school batters, that's a very small sample size to justify a 5.71 million decision. I will be fascinated on Thursday if the Sox have to choose between Rodon and Kolek/Aiken or even Nola and Kolek/Aiken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Will there be a predictions thread tomorrow or will we just post our predictions here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:18 AM) If they took Nola over Rodon, I would have no choice but to actually flip a table. b****ES!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:44 AM) Will there be a predictions thread tomorrow or will we just post our predictions here? There will be a pinned thread in PHT tomorrow, with a link to the tracker in the OP and discussion, which can be used for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:58 AM) There will be a pinned thread in PHT tomorrow, with a link to the tracker in the OP and discussion, which can be used for that. OK cool, thanks for the heads up. Now, if only I could decide on what my predictions will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:41 AM) I thought the biggest knock on him this season was his fastball command, I didn't hear many complaints about his slider, aside from overusing it. But the "inconsistency of his stuff" could be a byproduct of the increased attention, if you see every single pitch he throws all year, you aren't going to get eye-popping stuff every outing. My point on Rodon, and again remember I prefer Aiken and would be fine with Kolek, is that he's had 49 starts in college under intense scrutiny and pitched extremely well. Even when is stuff wasn't on, he rarely gets rocked or leaves a game early. Brady Aiken made 11 starts this year against local high school batters, that's a very small sample size to justify a 5.71 million decision. I will be fascinated on Thursday if the Sox have to choose between Rodon and Kolek/Aiken or even Nola and Kolek/Aiken. One of the interesting thing I heard Jason parks say regarding Rodon was that for anyone who has seen his best, it's impossible to erase "what's possible" in your head. The fact that he's been so good at times means that he "can" be that good if you can make him consistent (assuming stuff doesn't degrade). Even though this isn't a slam dunk because so many things can change, it is, in a way, a MUCH safer assessment of ceiling than something based solely on "projection." Put another way, maybe we can imagine Aiken/Kolek's ceiling as high or higher than Rodon's if they learn to to the things we think they could learn to do, but we've actually seen Rodon DO these things at some point or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 All righty folks, this is where all of the draft day discussion will happen. Let's start it off with predictions of who the White Sox end up with. I will guess Kolek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:30 AM) All righty folks, this is where all of the draft day discussion will happen. Let's start it off with predictions of who the White Sox end up with. I will guess Kolek. Hoping Kolek (assuming Aiken and Rodon are gone), ready for Nola, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Kolek is my guess, wishful thinking that they'll reconsider if Rodon drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I really hope they draft Jadaveon Clowney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjm676 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Rodon or Nola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunt Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Am I off for thinking that a future comp for Kolek could be Trevor Rosenthal if he doesn't hit his ceiling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Kolek or Aiken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feeky Magee Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:19 AM) One of the interesting thing I heard Jason parks say regarding Rodon was that for anyone who has seen his best, it's impossible to erase "what's possible" in your head. The fact that he's been so good at times means that he "can" be that good if you can make him consistent (assuming stuff doesn't degrade). Even though this isn't a slam dunk because so many things can change, it is, in a way, a MUCH safer assessment of ceiling than something based solely on "projection." Put another way, maybe we can imagine Aiken/Kolek's ceiling as high or higher than Rodon's if they learn to to the things we think they could learn to do, but we've actually seen Rodon DO these things at some point or another. Where was Parks discussing it? Fringe Average podcast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Have an uneasy feeling that through some mix of scouting and money that the Sox will not select the consensus best player available at #3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrlesque Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:58 AM) It's a consideration, certainly, but IMO, the only way you are better off going underslot in the first 5 picks is if you only see a marginal difference between your cheap guy and expensive guy. Otherwise, you're getting a shot at talent that you simply can't buy any other time of the year. Take the guy and pay him. The upside of the underslot is signing a 30-ish pick at 44. That isn't nothing, but it isn't worth passing on the consensus BPA at #3. This is the way I think too. In that perspective, the underslot strategy is a zero sum game at best, and a losing proposition with lower upside at worst. If Rodon's there, the Sox should (and I think definitely will) take him. Can't wait for tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjm676 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 After they grab one of the top pitchers, whoever it might be, I hope they stock up on OF or Cs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Have an uneasy feeling that through some mix of scouting and money that the Sox will not select the consensus best player available at #3. Marty is pessimistic. In other shocking news, Siberia is cold and Kate Upton has huge tits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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