harfman77 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 09:41 AM) I don't know how you can say there are 2 busts from this group with Zunino on his way. Bauer was the 14th or 17th ranked prospect LAST YEAR, so to say he's a bust is incredibly premature to say the least. Zunino was drafted a year and a half ago and he's already in the majors. Saying he's even on his way to being a bust is absurd too. The only guy you can say for sure has busted is Tate, and that's been injuries, plus I recall some people suggesting that was a reach at 3 too. The floor has really dropped out on Bauer. He could still be something, but at this point he would be considered a busted prospect. That doesn't mean he will never be anything, Chris Davis showed last year that players can come back from "bust" status to be elite players. Its been two years since his ML debut and the Indians signed a free agent SP that keeps him from having a slot in the rotation this season, at least at this point. IF Zunino busts, its really on how the Mariners handled him. The guy hit .227 at AAA and the Mariners promoted him to the majors out of desperation. The reason he is on the way there is total mismanagement of his development. Can he overcome it? Sure. But it is a tough hill to climb. The guy had 51 AB's at AA and struggled to adjust at AAA. Agree it is too early to tell, but with the way the Mariners handled him and their desperation to win now, puts some additional hurdles in his way. Tate was in the mold of Jared Mitchell, and elite athlete - was committed to UNC to play WR - that was valued for his toolbox over his actual baseball skills. IIRC, Padres had to go overslot to buy him out of his football commitment. Has the same profile, struggles with pitch recognition, long list of injuries, and most thought contacted issues would be addressed once he was devoted to one sport full time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 10:54 AM) The floor has really dropped out on Bauer. He could still be something, but at this point he would be considered a busted prospect. That doesn't mean he will never be anything, Chris Davis showed last year that players can come back from "bust" status to be elite players. Its been two years since his ML debut and the Indians signed a free agent SP that keeps him from having a slot in the rotation this season, at least at this point. IF Zunino busts, its really on how the Mariners handled him. The guy hit .227 at AAA and the Mariners promoted him to the majors out of desperation. The reason he is on the way there is total mismanagement of his development. Can he overcome it? Sure. But it is a tough hill to climb. The guy had 51 AB's at AA and struggled to adjust at AAA. Agree it is too early to tell, but with the way the Mariners handled him and their desperation to win now, puts some additional hurdles in his way. Tate was in the mold of Jared Mitchell, and elite athlete - was committed to UNC to play WR - that was valued for his toolbox over his actual baseball skills. IIRC, Padres had to go overslot to buy him out of his football commitment. Has the same profile, struggles with pitch recognition, long list of injuries, and most thought contacted issues would be addressed once he was devoted to one sport full time. Trevor Bauer is going to be 23 this year and struggled with command in his first go around at AAA, and he's thrown 33.1 innings in the majors. He's not a busted prospect. I'd give up just about anyone in the White Sox system to get him. You'd be crazy if you wouldn't too. Mike Zunino has 193 PAs at the MLB level. While he was struggling to hit for average in AAA, he absolutely killed the ball the previous year. If he busts, it won't be because of how the Mariners handled him but because he couldn't handle the majors. Again, I'd give up just about anybody in the White Sox system for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 11:01 AM) Trevor Bauer is going to be 23 this year and struggled with command in his first go around at AAA, and he's thrown 33.1 innings in the majors. He's not a busted prospect. I'd give up just about anyone in the White Sox system to get him. You'd be crazy if you wouldn't too. Mike Zunino has 193 PAs at the MLB level. While he was struggling to hit for average in AAA, he absolutely killed the ball the previous year. If he busts, it won't be because of how the Mariners handled him but because he couldn't handle the majors. Again, I'd give up just about anybody in the White Sox system for him. I am not giving up most of the top ten guys in the Sox system for him. Thompson yes, everyone else, probably not, as I think they all have as good or better shot at contributing at the ML level or have a higher ceiling. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him in our system in case he can figure it out, but AAA team have been blasting him. He could be Homer Bailey who had a similar profile, struggled, and then finally figured it out (or so his contract says), be Mike Pelfrey a highly ranked guy who ends up as "a guy", end up as a bullpen guy, or flame out altogether, but he has gone from top 10 to top 20 to out of the top 100 in three years, and the alleged reason that Diamondbacks gave up on him is that he would not accept coaching, making it harder to correct his issues. Still disagree on Zunino, Mariners basically picked him and threw him into the majors six weeks into his first full season as a pro. I do not agree with aggressive timelines that value a teams success over the development of a player, as it likely hurts your longterm ability to compete. No, he is not a bust at this point, and maybe he gets some more seasoning with Buck in the fold, but throwing him to the wolves with limited experience is the same thing the Sox did with Hawkins, and it is not a good path for long term success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The problem with Bauer is that his disappointment so far is not at all indicative of characteristics of a typical number 3 pick. Tons of players went after him that are way better prospects right now. His situation is an outlier because of his makeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggsmaggs Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 QUOTE (southside hitman @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 09:31 AM) That body type scares me. 6'5'', 250 at 18 years old? I suppose it's the same concerns for a Chris Sale type of build, but at least he was a proven college pitcher. If you look at him in any of the scouting videos, he is not a fat guy. Most of the weight is in the legs, no real signs of a gut. I mean, the kid is from nowheresville (Shepherd), Texas and probably has been living on fat, greasy southern cooking his entire life. If he gets on a professional exercise regimen and diet, that will take care of all problems. That is why the draft interview process is so crucial in determining someone's wok ethic, drive, etc. to make sure he will put in the work to be physically fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royoung Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 02:25 PM) If you look at him in any of the scouting videos, he is not a fat guy. Most of the weight is in the legs, no real signs of a gut. I mean, the kid is from nowheresville (Shepherd), Texas and probably has been living on fat, greasy southern cooking his entire life. If he gets on a professional exercise regimen and diet, that will take care of all problems. That is why the draft interview process is so crucial in determining someone's wok ethic, drive, etc. to make sure he will put in the work to be physically fit. Or he could get that big signing bonus and eat it. But you are right, the Sox have to do their due diligence on any prospect and feel great about their make up to select them with this important of a pick. My point is to take a HS kid at #3 overall when we are trying to do a "reload" I'd imagine it would have to be very impressive kid, like Courtney Hawkins was coming out of school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 12:23 PM) The problem with Bauer is that his disappointment so far is not at all indicative of characteristics of a typical number 3 pick. Tons of players went after him that are way better prospects right now. His situation is an outlier because of his makeup. True, goes to show the myriad of factors to account for when selecting a player that high. He has a ton of talent, but that isn't all you need to be successful. All picks are tenuous at best, the #3 position is no guarantee of getting a great player. Just to expand the scope to ten years for more of a sample size: 2013 Gray 2012 Zunino 2011 Bauer 2010 Machado 2009 Tate 2008 Eric Hosmer 2007 Josh Vitters 2006 Evan Longoria 2005 Jeff Clement 2004 Phillip Humber 2003 Kyle Sleeth Just sayin, this pick is no slam dunk. There is a gigantic list of players that slide that have success as well, its all about identification and scouting. You have to evaluate make-up, projection, ceiling, lots of factors that aren't accounted for when these mock drafts are created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 04:30 PM) True, goes to show the myriad of factors to account for when selecting a player that high. He has a ton of talent, but that isn't all you need to be successful. All picks are tenuous at best, the #3 position is no guarantee of getting a great player. Just to expand the scope to ten years for more of a sample size: 2013 Gray 2012 Zunino 2011 Bauer 2010 Machado 2009 Tate 2008 Eric Hosmer 2007 Josh Vitters 2006 Evan Longoria 2005 Jeff Clement 2004 Phillip Humber 2003 Kyle Sleeth Just sayin, this pick is no slam dunk. There is a gigantic list of players that slide that have success as well, its all about identification and scouting. You have to evaluate make-up, projection, ceiling, lots of factors that aren't accounted for when these mock drafts are created. One thing that does stand out in that list to me, is there are really only a couple busts. And Sleeth had injury issues. Bottom line for me is, the #4 pick has a very good chance of getting you a useful major leaguer, and a small but significant chance of getting you more than that. Chances of a bust are about 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShandyMan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 04:36 PM) One thing that does stand out in that list to me, is there are really only a couple busts. And Sleeth had injury issues. Bottom line for me is, the #4 pick has a very good chance of getting you a useful major leaguer, and a small but significant chance of getting you more than that. Chances of a bust are about 20%. Exactly, where as a 15-20 pick probably has around a 50% bust rate. No draft pick is a slam dunk (exception strasburg, harper etc.) but being #3 gives us a much better chance of getting it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 02:25 PM) If you look at him in any of the scouting videos, he is not a fat guy. Most of the weight is in the legs, no real signs of a gut. I mean, the kid is from nowheresville (Shepherd), Texas and probably has been living on fat, greasy southern cooking his entire life. If he gets on a professional exercise regimen and diet, that will take care of all problems. That is why the draft interview process is so crucial in determining someone's wok ethic, drive, etc. to make sure he will put in the work to be physically fit. I've read up a bit on Kolek and from what I gathered he was raised on a farm so he has work ethic. Also his size and selection of pitches has been compared to the likes of a young Kerry Wood. If the Sox were to draft him we can be greatful Dusty Baker isn't the manager. If Rodon and Hoffman go 1/2 I'm hoping the Sox draft Kolek. That's as of now, that can change depending on how all these kids do between now and draft day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 04:36 PM) One thing that does stand out in that list to me, is there are really only a couple busts. And Sleeth had injury issues. Bottom line for me is, the #4 pick has a very good chance of getting you a useful major leaguer, and a small but significant chance of getting you more than that. Chances of a bust are about 20%. It really matters how you define bust in this instance. If you believe that the #3 pick should be an elite player, the hit rate is only 30%. If you say that anyone that makes a ML roster is not a bust, than yes you are correct. It also really depends what you mean by useful, is Phil Humber really useful? He had a pretty good season, but overall is a guy that has bounced around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 11:16 PM) I've read up a bit on Kolek and from what I gathered he was raised on a farm so he has work ethic. Also his size and selection of pitches has been compared to the likes of a young Kerry Wood. If the Sox were to draft him we can be greatful Dusty Baker isn't the manager. If Rodon and Hoffman go 1/2 I'm hoping the Sox draft Kolek. That's as of now, that can change depending on how all these kids do between now and draft day. Kolek's biggest issue is that he is not very projectable, his frame is very mature, though it doesn't all look like good weight. On the other side, he already has elite velo, and a pretty good arsenal. I could see him sneaking in as the #1 pick if he will give the Astros a hometown discount. As a local kid, it would help a lot with their marketing efforts and he has a chance to be a top of the rotation arm in the not to distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMOU Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 08:13 AM) Kolek's biggest issue is that he is not very projectable, his frame is very mature, though it doesn't all look like good weight. On the other side, he already has elite velo, and a pretty good arsenal. I could see him sneaking in as the #1 pick if he will give the Astros a hometown discount. As a local kid, it would help a lot with their marketing efforts and he has a chance to be a top of the rotation arm in the not to distant future. Not that I'm comparing them or anything, but you should see pictures of Roy Halladay from high school. Kid was fat. His HS uni is on display at his alma mater. Huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Jim Callis @jimcallisMLB 44m Hoffman (college) definitely over Kolek (HS) @BigCelio: who makes more of an immediate impact for @whitesox T.Kolek or J.Hoffman? #mlbdraft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 10:46 AM) Jim Callis @jimcallisMLB 44m Hoffman (college) definitely over Kolek (HS) @BigCelio: who makes more of an immediate impact for @whitesox T.Kolek or J.Hoffman? #mlbdraft Hoffman could be in the majors by the end of the season in some role as Sale did, Kolek could be a guy who moves fast though and reach the majors at a younger age. I would not be surprised to see Kolek on the Walker/Bundy/Bradley timelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 09:13 AM) Kolek's biggest issue is that he is not very projectable, his frame is very mature, though it doesn't all look like good weight. On the other side, he already has elite velo, and a pretty good arsenal. I could see him sneaking in as the #1 pick if he will give the Astros a hometown discount. As a local kid, it would help a lot with their marketing efforts and he has a chance to be a top of the rotation arm in the not to distant future. I dont know, I've seen pics and it doesn't look like the kid is holding all that much extra weight. He's not ripped by any means, he just a big county bred kid. I think for now Rodon goes #1 with his fastball, wicked slider and being a lefty it will be difficult to knock off his perch. #2 could be up in the air depending on how Kolek improves his command otherwise #2 most likely will be Hoffman. I Can see a possibility of Brandon Finnegan jumping into the top five to make the third pick even more interesting for the Sox. Truth is there's a long way to go before draft day arrives but I do feel confident in Rick Hahn and co. to do their homework in order to take advantage of the high picks they have when draft day finally arrives. Unless something changes, with all the pitching talent available I would almost guarantee we draft a pitcher with the first pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 (edited) 100 days until the draft. Not going to knock myself out trying to scout every potential player, or check box scores. They got the third pick. They'll get who they want at 3. That's good enough for me. Edited February 25, 2014 by flavum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hoffman with a dominating start vs W. Ky today Beede with a great start against Stanford Turner 0-4, still only one XBH this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 8IP, 1R, 0ER, 1BB, 14K for Hoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 28, 2014 -> 06:07 PM) Hoffman with a dominating start vs W. Ky today Beede with a great start against Stanford Turner 0-4, still only one XBH this year With a strong year, Beede can make himself into a top 5 pick. QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 28, 2014 -> 06:14 PM) 8IP, 1R, 0ER, 1BB, 14K for Hoffman That's dominance from Hoffman. How good is Western Kentucky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Feb 28, 2014 -> 06:46 PM) With a strong year, Beede can make himself into a top 5 pick. That's dominance from Hoffman. How good is Western Kentucky? Not particularly good but they beat Vandy I think earlier this week so they aren't awful. Hoffman needs more starts like this. He's got the numbers, but he hasn't put it all together as a college pitcher yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hoffman's stat line so far this season: 0-1, 21.1 IP, 14 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 6 BBs, 26 Ks, 2.53 ERA, .182 BAA Beede's stat line so far this season 3-0, 18 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 BBs, 24 Ks, 1.00 ERA, .085 BAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggsmaggs Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Second-round pick possibility: Aramis Garcia, Catcher, Florida International. Baseball America had a nice write-up on him a week ago and he is projected to go right around where our second-round pick is. However, he may be exploding this year. Everything indicates he can stay at catcher, very solid defensively, great arm and a great leader. Offense has been great this year for FIU. .457 BA, .548 OBP (7 BB to 2 SO), .629 SLG (1 2B, 1 3B and 1 HR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Law has an insider article noting that Beede is on track to be a top 5 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShandyMan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 QUOTE (DirtySox @ Mar 2, 2014 -> 11:37 AM) Law has an insider article noting that Beede is on track to be a top 5 pick. More and more I think that we will end up with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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