2014 Draft class

[maggsmaggs]

For what its worth, yesterday during the Sox/Giants broadcast, Hawks was very critical of taking a high school pitcher in the first round of a draft.

All the more reason to then. Hawk is a boob. There is no doubt taking a high school pitchers presents a huge risk because of their age, lack of playing top competition, overuse, maturity, on and on, but if your scouts say the high school kid is the BPA, you take him despite him being a high school pitcher.

 

As evidenced by his various gripes against sabermetrics, Hawk's opinion these days is about as valuable as a nickel.

Edited March 23, 2014 by maggsmaggs

[Y2Jimmy0]

All the more reason to then. Hawk is a boob. There is no doubt taking a high school pitchers presents a huge risk because of their age, lack of playing top competition, overuse, maturity, on and on, but if you're scouts say the high school kid is the BPA, you take him despite him being a high school pitcher.

 

As evidenced by his various gripes against sabermetrics, Hawk's opinion these days is about as valuable as a nickel.

 

 

Absolutely. Tyler Beede is probably going to be a solid #2 starter. If the Sox think that Kolek or Aiken will be #1 starters, then my philosophy is to take the HS arm. Not sure that they will and I know some people will differ with me on that. It's just 2 different philosophies. The people that say to take the most sure thing college arm aren't wrong either. Should be an interesting few months.

[southsider2k5]

For what its worth, yesterday during the Sox/Giants broadcast, Hawks was very critical of taking a high school pitcher in the first round of a draft.

 

Read up on Hawk's tenure as GM.

[ShandyMan]

I'd remember that much of what you are hearing publicly for anyone within the Sox organization is also posturing for whatever reason.

 

There is a difference between the Kris Honel's of the world and Tyler Kolek/Brady Aiken.

 

With that said, it is still extremely early in the process.

[Marty34]

For what its worth, yesterday during the Sox/Giants broadcast, Hawks was very critical of taking a high school pitcher in the first round of a draft.

 

Maybe it has changed in recent years (it probably has), but Hawk has been a pretty reliable mouthpiece for this outfit. I doubt they take a HS pitcher at #3.

[ILMOU]

Maybe it has changed in recent years (it probably has), but Hawk has been a pretty reliable mouthpiece for this outfit. I doubt they take a HS pitcher at #3.

Of course it's still way early, but there's a reasonable chance that Kolek and Aiken are 1 and 2, which would virtually guarantee the correctness of your statement.

[ShandyMan]

Of course it's still way early, but there's a reasonable chance that Kolek and Aiken are 1 and 2, which would virtually guarantee the correctness of your statement.

 

In which case the sox management all go crazy with joy since we get Rodon.

 

Either way, we are in a great position.

[DirtySox]

In which case the sox management all go crazy with joy since we get Rodon.

 

Either way, we are in a great position.

 

I'd wager that Rodon will demand 1-1 money even at if selected 3rd. Boras is his advisor and he has the option to return to school for his senior year a la Appel if he so wishes.

[Marty34]

I'd wager that Rodon will demand 1-1 money even at if selected 3rd. Boras is his advisor and he has the option to return to school for his senior year a la Appel if he so wishes.

 

No wonder Hahn was talking Rodon up during the broadcast Friday. Down to Hoffman or Beede.

[ptatc]

Of course it's still way early, but there's a reasonable chance that Kolek and Aiken are 1 and 2, which would virtually guarantee the correctness of your statement.

It's very rare that high school pitchers go in either of the first 2 picks let alone both. The bust factor is just too high for that amount of money. One of the first 2 picks will be one of the college pitchers.

[Marty34]

It's very rare that high school pitchers go in either of the first 2 picks let alone both. The bust factor is just too high for that amount of money. One of the first 2 picks will be one of the college pitchers.

 

I agree with this. Wonder how far guys like Rodon or Hoffman fall.

[Quin]

In which case the sox management all go crazy with joy since we get Rodon.

 

Either way, we are in a great position.

 

If we get Rodon you make sure you sign him. Having him and Sale at the front of the rotation complimented by Q, Johnson, Danish, Beck, etc. would be awesome.

[Balta1701]

If we get Rodon you make sure you sign him. Having him and Sale at the front of the rotation complimented by Q, Johnson, Danish, Beck, etc. would be awesome.

Unless he's available at #3 for a reason.

[oneofthemikes]

If I had my pick of the litter, this would be my order of preference for the pick.

 

1) Rodon - Overpowering stuff, good build, should fast track to the bigs.

2) Aiken - Projects to have 3 plus or better pitches and has a really easy delivery.

3) Beede - Vastly improved command, great repertoire. 3 plus or better pitches.

4) Kolek - Throws really hard, but concerns over size since he is already so big as an 18 year old.

5) Hoffman - Has fallen off a bit, but seeing names like Verlander and Wainwright as a pro comparison is pretty tempting.

[royoung]

I'd wager that Rodon will demand 1-1 money even at if selected 3rd. Boras is his advisor and he has the option to return to school for his senior year a la Appel if he so wishes.

 

That's a good point. If it's actually true that he's falling down draft boards and is no longer the 1-1, it's very possible he could fall like Appel due to contract demands. It did work out for Appel so it wouldn't surprise me if Boras tries it again.

 

In that case, I would be conflicted if Rodon is on the board at pick #3 demanding 1-1 money and theoretically Beede and Hoffman are available willing to take slot or below. There seems to be consensus that Rodon isn't as impressive a prospect as he once was considered.

[harfman77]

Week stats:

 

Newcomb - 8 IP 4H 0R 0ER 3BB 7K

Season - 5GS 0.00 ERA 32.2 IP 14H 1R 0ER 15BB 38K

Rodon - 4.2 IP 6H 8R 0ER 4BB 8K

Season - 6GS 2.18 ERA 41.1 IP 33H 23R 10ER 15BB 50K

Hoffman - 7 IP 6H 3R 3ER 2BB 2K

Season - 6GS 4.03 ERA 38 IP 29H 20R 17ER 17BB 39K

Beede - 2.2 IP 6H 11R 5ER 5BB 2K

Season - 6 GS 2.06 ERA 35 IP 20H 17R 8ER 11BB 42K

 

Brady Aikens last start was the 18th - 4.2 IP 0H 0R 0ER 1BB 12K

[BlackSox13]

Week stats:

 

Newcomb - 8 IP 4H 0R 0ER 3BB 7K

Season - 5GS 0.00 ERA 32.2 IP 14H 1R 0ER 15BB 38K

Rodon - 4.2 IP 6H 8R 0ER 4BB 8K

Season - 6GS 2.18 ERA 41.1 IP 33H 23R 10ER 15BB 50K

Hoffman - 7 IP 6H 3R 3ER 2BB 2K

Season - 6GS 4.03 ERA 38 IP 29H 20R 17ER 17BB 39K

Beede - 2.2 IP 6H 11R 5ER 5BB 2K

Season - 6 GS 2.06 ERA 35 IP 20H 17R 8ER 11BB 42K

 

Brady Aikens last start was the 18th - 4.2 IP 0H 0R 0ER 1BB 12K

One thing I see in common here is the walks are kind of high. Not what you would expect from the top college arms for June's draft BUT I think the walks show that its early in the season and guys are still trying to find their groove.

[Eminor3rd]

Week stats:

 

Newcomb - 8 IP 4H 0R 0ER 3BB 7K

Season - 5GS 0.00 ERA 32.2 IP 14H 1R 0ER 15BB 38K

Rodon - 4.2 IP 6H 8R 0ER 4BB 8K

Season - 6GS 2.18 ERA 41.1 IP 33H 23R 10ER 15BB 50K

Hoffman - 7 IP 6H 3R 3ER 2BB 2K

Season - 6GS 4.03 ERA 38 IP 29H 20R 17ER 17BB 39K

Beede - 2.2 IP 6H 11R 5ER 5BB 2K

Season - 6 GS 2.06 ERA 35 IP 20H 17R 8ER 11BB 42K

 

Brady Aikens last start was the 18th - 4.2 IP 0H 0R 0ER 1BB 12K

 

lol 12 Ks in 4.2 IP. High School is ridiculous.

[harfman77]

One thing I see in common here is the walks are kind of high. Not what you would expect from the top college arms for June's draft BUT I think the walks show that its early in the season and guys are still trying to find their groove.

 

As a frame of reference, there were two college pitchers taken in the top 10. Appel had 130/30 K/BB ratio as a jr and 130/23 as sr and Jonathan Gray put up 147/24. Last season Rodon had 184/45, Hoffman was 84/39 (15 starts) and Beede was 97/55 all as sophs.

 

At this point, I think Rodon is probably out of the equation for the Sox for a variety of reasons. I think it will come down to Hoffman, Beede, Aiken, and Holmes in that order and whichever will sign for the figure that Hahn has in mind.

[BlackSox13]

As a frame of reference, there were two college pitchers taken in the top 10. Appel had 130/30 K/BB ratio as a jr and 130/23 as sr and Jonathan Gray put up 147/24. Last season Rodon had 184/45, Hoffman was 84/39 (15 starts) and Beede was 97/55 all as sophs.

 

At this point, I think Rodon is probably out of the equation for the Sox for a variety of reasons. I think it will come down to Hoffman, Beede, Aiken, and Holmes in that order and whichever will sign for the figure that Hahn has in mind.

Good reference and it shows that these guys will likely come around and cut down on the walks. Cool weather could also be a favor as well.

 

Are you thinking that Rodon and Kolek get picked 1/2? Just curious is all.

 

Right now I'm hoping for one of Beede, Aiken, Kolek, Rodon ( not likely) and possiby Newcomb for the #3. That could change too. I'm just not sold on Hoffman at this point.

[harfman77]

Good reference and it shows that these guys will likely come around and cut down on the walks. Cool weather could also be a favor as well.

 

Are you thinking that Rodon and Kolek get picked 1/2? Just curious is all.

 

Right now I'm hoping for one of Beede, Aiken, Kolek, Rodon ( not likely) and possiby Newcomb for the #3. That could change too. I'm just not sold on Hoffman at this point.

 

I think that Kolek goes in the top 2, either to the hometown Astros or the Marlins who have been known to favor high school talent with upside, though they have went with college guys in the last two drafts.

 

If Rodon is there at 3, I do not see the Sox taking him as I don't feel that he will sign for what they want as a Boras client. When Appel fell to 8th, Boras still wanted 1-1 money, so I envision the same approach with Rodon. If he falls he will likely enter in the draft again next season and rebuild his value as a bonafide 1-1. There are too many good pitchers in the draft to take a chance on punting the pick to next season when the landscape may be murkier.

 

I trust the Sox on which guy they will take, they will have ample opportunities to have seen each guy and cross-checked them, and they have a really solid track record identifying pitchers that have underwhelming numbers and correcting their issues as pros. The problem with college pitchers that put up great numbers is sometimes they are already at their ceiling and have little development left. I think there is still quite a bit of projection left in Hoffman. Rodon is better than he has pitched, Beede may be close to topping out. Newcomb is interesting in that he has pretty good stuff, but won't be challenged by his level of competition. He has three plus pitches but command hasn't been there.

 

I would love to get Aiken if he is there, the upside is huge and I think he has more of a frame to be a ace type than Kolek does.

[oneofthemikes]

How quickly do we think Aiken could move through the system? I know that they are looking for an arm they can pair with Sale, but would Aiken be in the bigs soon enough to be that guy?

 

I really like what Aiken has to offer but I think the timeline could be slower than the Sox are looking for.

[harfman77]

New MLB Draft Blog Insider article - http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...-2014-mlb-draft

 

Talks about Rodon's struggles and how it is now a concern - "The concern now is this is a fairly long pattern, not a blip on a radar screen," an NL East scout said.

 

Mentions Hoffmans last start - "...he failed to miss bats once again, striking out just two hitters. The Pirates' ace did get 12 ground ball outs, but Hoffman's breaking ball was once again mediocre..."

 

On Beede - "That's the worst I've seen [beede] in my three years of scouting him," and "The only thing that really concerns me are the walks, because they were such an issue the previous year. Kids are going to have off nights..."

[harfman77]

How quickly do we think Aiken could move through the system? I know that they are looking for an arm they can pair with Sale, but would Aiken be in the bigs soon enough to be that guy?

 

I really like what Aiken has to offer but I think the timeline could be slower than the Sox are looking for.

 

Its really tough to say, he could have the upside of an Archie Bradley, Dylan Bundy type so he could move quickly or he may not be that guy. High School P's are really hard to project.

 

Laws quote on him when he rated him the #1 prospect "He's not Clayton Kershaw, but it's a pretty good version of the Kershaw Starter Kit."

[oneofthemikes]

Has anyone heard anything about which way the Astros or Marlins are leaning? Last I read (a couple weeks ago) was that Houston was enamored with Rodon and that Miami had been linked to Kolek.