2014 Draft class

[harfman77]

Has anyone heard anything about which way the Astros or Marlins are leaning? Last I read (a couple weeks ago) was that Houston was enamored with Rodon and that Miami had been linked to Kolek.

 

Thats the last I had heard as well, also mentioned the Sox on Hoffman. As posted previous in this thread, the Sox were at Aikens last start.

[oneofthemikes]

There is still plenty of time for things to change, but I think I would rather see them take Aiken than Hoffman at this point. Hoffman just hasn't been very impressive so far this year. But maybe the Sox have already identified a tweak to his delivery that would take him to the next level.

[BlackSox13]

I think that Kolek goes in the top 2, either to the hometown Astros or the Marlins who have been known to favor high school talent with upside, though they have went with college guys in the last two drafts.

 

If Rodon is there at 3, I do not see the Sox taking him as I don't feel that he will sign for what they want as a Boras client. When Appel fell to 8th, Boras still wanted 1-1 money, so I envision the same approach with Rodon. If he falls he will likely enter in the draft again next season and rebuild his value as a bonafide 1-1. There are too many good pitchers in the draft to take a chance on punting the pick to next season when the landscape may be murkier.

 

I trust the Sox on which guy they will take, they will have ample opportunities to have seen each guy and cross-checked them, and they have a really solid track record identifying pitchers that have underwhelming numbers and correcting their issues as pros. The problem with college pitchers that put up great numbers is sometimes they are already at their ceiling and have little development left. I think there is still quite a bit of projection left in Hoffman. Rodon is better than he has pitched, Beede may be close to topping out. Newcomb is interesting in that he has pretty good stuff, but won't be challenged by his level of competition. He has three plus pitches but command hasn't been there.

 

I would love to get Aiken if he is there, the upside is huge and I think he has more of a frame to be a ace type than Kolek does.

OK, makes a lot of sense. I don't think Kolek's is much to be concerned with, but that's just me. I have also read what you say about the Marlins and how they aren't afraid to draft hs pitchers.

 

After you posted about Aiken, I looked up videos and that kid is beyond impressive for his age. If I were Hahn and Aiken was available, he would be the third pick. His curve ball just impressed the s*** right out of me. Nice thing is he will likely add some velocity to his fastball with age. I just hope Aiken takes the money and get his professional baseball career started instead of going to college.

 

Has anyone heard anything about which way the Astros or Marlins are leaning? Last I read (a couple weeks ago) was that Houston was enamored with Rodon and that Miami had been linked to Kolek.

That's the last I heard as well. Fine with me, I'll take the 18 yo southpaw ( Aiken) at #3.

[fathom]

It's so difficult to imagine the Sox organization drafting a high school pitcher that high. Over the weekend, Hawk and Stoney were talking about how research showed that a high school pitcher loses about 2-3 mph when they enter professional baseball.

[witesoxfan]

It's so difficult to imagine the Sox organization drafting a high school pitcher that high. Over the weekend, Hawk and Stoney were talking about how research showed that a high school pitcher loses about 2-3 mph when they enter professional baseball.

 

I agree. I think they'll be more apt to take some risks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but at those times some of these pitchers will be more apt to go to school and try to improve their stock. With the #3 pick though, they really can't afford to miss.

[caulfield12]

OK, makes a lot of sense. I don't think Kolek's is much to be concerned with, but that's just me. I have also read what you say about the Marlins and how they aren't afraid to draft hs pitchers.

 

After you posted about Aiken, I looked up videos and that kid is beyond impressive for his age. If I were Hahn and Aiken was available, he would be the third pick. His curve ball just impressed the s*** right out of me. Nice thing is he will likely add some velocity to his fastball with age. I just hope Aiken takes the money and get his professional baseball career started instead of going to college.

 

 

That's the last I heard as well. Fine with me, I'll take the 18 yo southpaw ( Aiken) at #3.

 

Sounds like Gio Gonzalez without the body frame/durability questions coming into the draft.

[BlackSox13]

Sounds like Gio Gonzalez without the body frame/durability questions coming into the draft.

That's exactly what I'm thinking as well. I never liked the idea of the Sox trading Gio away, twice no less. I'm no scout but I think Aiken could end being every bit as good as Gio if not better. Again, I'm just a fan and no scout. I wouldn't have a problem taking a hs kid like this for the #3 pick. Yes its a risk but one I'm willing to take.

[royoung]

That's exactly what I'm thinking as well. I never liked the idea of the Sox trading Gio away, twice no less. I'm no scout but I think Aiken could end being every bit as good as Gio if not better. Again, I'm just a fan and no scout. I wouldn't have a problem taking a hs kid like this for the #3 pick. Yes its a risk but one I'm willing to take.

 

Would you take Aiken over Rodon at this point?

[oneofthemikes]

Would you take Aiken over Rodon at this point?

 

That's tough. I think Rodon is more of a sure thing because he is so much more physically mature and since it (presumably) won't take him as long to make it to the majors. So, yeah Rodon over Aiken.

[Boopa1219]

Id be happy with either Kolek, Jackson or Aiken. The college guys are not dominating like they should.

[BlackSox13]

Would you take Aiken over Rodon at this point?

Honestly at this point I'm straddling the fence with circulation to my nutsack being cut off. If Rodon still wants 1-1 money as the thid pick then I take Aiken without question. If Rodon isn't looking for 1-1 money and pitches well then I lean his direction. Its a tough call at this point with a lot of baseball to be played between now and June.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I don't think there is any way you pass on Rodon, no matter what pick you have. After Rodon you could go a bunch of different ways. There may not be a position player picked in the top 5.

[maggsmaggs]

Honestly at this point I'm straddling the fence with circulation to my nutsack being cut off. If Rodon still wants 1-1 money as the thid pick then I take Aiken without question. If Rodon isn't looking for 1-1 money and pitches well then I lean his direction. Its a tough call at this point with a lot of baseball to be played between now and June.

With the option of going to college, Aiken probably has more leverage than Rodon and might be looking for similar amounts of money.

[Quin]

I don't think there is any way you pass on Rodon, no matter what pick you have. After Rodon you could go a bunch of different ways. There may not be a position player picked in the top 5.

 

Kolek, Beede, Rodon, Hoffman, Aiken.

 

Sox will get to choose from three of those.

 

I like.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Kolek, Beede, Rodon, Hoffman, Aiken.

 

Sox will get to choose from three of those.

 

I like.

 

Because everyone seems to be ranking their choices, I'll list my "Big Board" as such....

 

1) Rodon

2) Beede

3) Aiken

4) Hoffman

5) Kolek

 

 

[ILMOU]

With the option of going to college, Aiken probably has more leverage than Rodon and might be looking for similar amounts of money.

We can avoid surprises by putting out back-channel feelers to their handlers in this regard, no? Whether legally or not, I think we can get an idea.

Edited March 25, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[harfman77]

Would you take Aiken over Rodon at this point?

 

I would as I think the Sox have a legit chance to sign Aiken, the Rodon situation seems a little foggier. His agent situation may be an issue as I am not sure who his advisor his, but to me the Sox need the guy they can sign and I do not think that is Rodon.

[BlackSox13]

With the option of going to college, Aiken probably has more leverage than Rodon and might be looking for similar amounts of money.

This is a possibility but Aiken hasn't been hyped all winter like Rodon. Rodon was listed as the first overall pick in a class all his own, he was the only player in the top tier but that has changed rather quickly . If Rodon drops to the third overall pick or insists on 1-1 money as the third pick , he can go back to college in an effort to rebuild his stock for next year as a possible number one overall. This is very possible if Borass is advising him. I think as far as signability and assuming Rodon does want 1-1 money despite drafted third combined with Borass advising him, Rodon is likely to be more of a pain in the ass to sign than Aiken.

[witesoxfan]

I admittedly haven't watched any of these guys pitch, but reading this just reminds me so much of hearing about Brian Matusz coming out. Just from the sound of his repertoire I didn't like him, and while I was lucky, it's still very true. Here's a nice, if dated, read on Brian Matusz (with a comparison to Clayton Kershaw the prospect).

 

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/college-...t-brian-matusz/

[BlackSox13]

The amount or people overlooking Rodon is surprising. Best player in the draft and it's not very close.

I think part of it is at this point nobody is expecting Rodon to be available at number three. As for the best player, its becoming very close. Iowasoxfan has been posting the numbers so far and according to that Rodon has serious competition nipping at his heals from the likes of Beede and Newcomb.

[southsider2k5]

The amount or people overlooking Rodon is surprising. Best player in the draft and it's not very close.

 

People are putting WAY to much stock into early season statistics.

[caulfield12]

It's like the college basketball Top 25.

 

The in-season oscillations don't matter.

 

In the end, it's how you pitch in events like the College World Series, just like Kentucky is playing now. In the end, the best talent usually shows up when it counts, the cream rises to the crop. Regular season games are ONE indicator, but far from the most accurate indicator or barometer.

 

As far as Rodon's signability, Hahn is familiar enough with how Boras operates to properly gauge if pursuing him is worthwhile. With the timeframe in place, the last thing the White Sox can afford is to be pushed back one year from having the best arm available to them as soon as possible to plug into that rotation and make it playoff caliber.

 

 

[royoung]

People are putting WAY to much stock into early season statistics.

 

It's not about the stats, scouts are saying his fastball has been average and his control has been below average all year. I'd still be fine with Hoffman if our scouts believed he is still flashing/capable of plus stuff and his numbers are awful. Rodon has to show it at some point or somethings gone very wrong.

[BlackSox13]

It's not about the stats, scouts are saying his fastball has been average and his control has been below average all year. I'd still be fine with Hoffman if our scouts believed he is still flashing/capable of plus stuff and his numbers are awful. Rodon has to show it at some point or somethings gone very wrong.

Well said. Mock drafts have changed because of early scouting reports. When this thread was started, Rodon was the clear cut #1 pick by a long shot and here we are just a few months later talking about the possibility of Rodon being available for the Sox. Its changed that quick and likely to change more as time goes on. Will be a fun draft no doubt.

[Feeky Magee]

Bit of a newb question, but is the ultimate decision on picks made by the general manager or the scouting director? Obviously they'll consult and whatever but if there's a disagreement, who has the ultimate say, Hahn or Laumann? Hahn?