2014 Draft class

[DirtySox]

Trea Turner with 2 HRs tonight. Making that late push to be pick number 3!

[BlackSox13]

Not sure if this was posted but it looks like Hoffman's last outing on the 17th was a good one. Granted, it was against Middle Tennessee.

 

http://www.ecupirates.com/sports/m-basebl/.../041714aac.html

[caulfield12]

i think the Nationals are content with the pitcher they got.

 

But even Strasburg hasn't quite lived up to the initial hype of his first season. The surgery, and then more inconsistent since then.

 

Obviously, they're happy....he's not Mark Prior, but he's not quite the best pitcher in baseball, either.

[Feeky Magee]

He hasn't been inconsistent in the slightest degree. I am not sure why everyone thinks that. He's had four starts this year and has a 6 ERA with a 3.22 FIP and a league leading 14.1 K/9. He has been an ace when he's on the mound every single year.

I think it's more disappointment compared to they hype coming from being the best college pitcher of all-time. I'm working through old Baseball Prospectus podcasts, in 2010 right now and they're talking about him as a slam-dunk to basically instantly be the best pitcher in the game, and one of the greatest of all-time.

[Quin]

"Ugh we only got an ace and not the GOAT pitcher. What a waste."

[Cerbaho-WG]

Not sure if this was posted but it looks like Hoffman's last outing on the 17th was a good one. Granted, it was against Middle Tennessee.

 

http://www.ecupirates.com/sports/m-basebl/.../041714aac.html

 

His stuff was apparently very, very good. I wouldn't really read too much into the quality of opponents.

 

[Feeky Magee]

"Ugh we only got an ace and not the GOAT pitcher. What a waste."

No I mean obviously it was the right pick and that but listening back, the hype was huge, across the board. I'll bet if you said at the time that by 2014 his career ERA would be 3.10 and his best year would be "just" a 4 WAR year, 99.9% of people would have taken the under. He's been excellent, but people thought he'd be historic. Of course the TJ probably didn't help.

[harfman77]

This weeks stat update:

 

Carlos Rodon - 8 IP 7H 4R 3ER 5BB 7K

Season - 10 GS 2.41 ERA 71 IP 61H 36R 19ER 26BB 79K

Tyler Beede - 7 IP 10H 6R 6ER 1BB 6K

Season - 10 GS 3.75 ERA 60 IP 49H 37R 25ER 21BB 62K

Jeff Hoffman - 8 IP 3H 0R 0ER 1BB 16K

Season - 10 GS 2.94 ERA 67.1 IP 53H 26R 22ER 20BB 72K

Sean Newcomb - 7 IP 3H 1R 0ER 4BB 7K

Season - 9 GS 1.23 ERA 58.1 IP 31H 10R 8ER 27BB 64K

 

Newcomb has a bounceback start, control issues are probably going to push him down the board, maybe to the point of the Sox picking him up in round 2. Hoffman has the start everyone has been waiting for albeit against an inept MTSU lineup. Beede has probably worked himself into the second tier with guy like Nola and Grant Holmes. Rodon still has ace potential, but has to clean up his command.

[harfman77]

New ESPN Draft Blog

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1596

 

Talks about Hoffmans start last week as a 1-1 performance.

 

"The most likely landing spots for Hoffman right now are to either the Chicago White Sox or Chicago Cubs, with the Seattle Mariners being his absolute floor, but if he shows this kind of stuff over the last month of the season, he's got a chance to go in the first two picks to either the Houston Astros or Miami Marlins."

 

Rodon's confounding season:

 

"He gave up just one run on six hits in his eight innings of work, walking three and striking out seven on 115 pitches. Once again, though, his fastball command was below-average, the pitch sat 90-93 mph, and the world-class slider wasn't on constant display like it was against Duke a week ago.

 

It'd still be a surprise if Rodon wasn't the first pitcher to come off the board come June, and it's difficult see him getting past the Chicago Cubs with the fourth pick. "

 

Trea Turner

 

""There have been days [seeing Turner] where I've thought he looked like a top-10 pick," an AL East scout said. "But there are days where I'm not sure I'd give him much more than a 50 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] grade. "

 

Kyle Freeland from Evansville is a top 15 pick with some of the most dominating numbers (87/4 K:BB) projects as a mid-rotation guy. Questions about his mechanics due to a low arm slot.

 

Brandon Finnegan from TCU is projected to go in the 5-15 range, there are durability concerns due to his size.

 

The final bit is on the race for top C in the draft between Max Pentecost and IU's Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber has the better bat and power profile, but may not be able to stick at the position. He has been splitting time in LF, but scouts don't believe he can handle the position as a pro. Pentecost seems like a lock to stay at C, but there is not the upside of Schwarbers bat.

 

 

[royoung]

Thanks for all the updates Iowa. I am feeling pretty great about the Sox position. Either we get Hoffman (who I think might be #1 on Sox big board) or one of the HS arms, with Rodon as the wildcard.

[harfman77]

Thanks for all the updates Iowa. I am feeling pretty great about the Sox position. Either we get Hoffman (who I think might be #1 on Sox big board) or one of the HS arms, with Rodon as the wildcard.

 

If you were to tier the players in the draft at this point, Tier 1 would be Rodon, Kolek, Aiken, Hoffman, and Jackson; the Sox are bound to get one of that tier. The Sox are really sitting in a good spot as they are going to get a legit 1-1 candidate for a fraction of the cost.

[caulfield12]

New ESPN Draft Blog

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1596

 

Talks about Hoffmans start last week as a 1-1 performance.

 

"The most likely landing spots for Hoffman right now are to either the Chicago White Sox or Chicago Cubs, with the Seattle Mariners being his absolute floor, but if he shows this kind of stuff over the last month of the season, he's got a chance to go in the first two picks to either the Houston Astros or Miami Marlins."

 

Rodon's confounding season:

 

"He gave up just one run on six hits in his eight innings of work, walking three and striking out seven on 115 pitches. Once again, though, his fastball command was below-average, the pitch sat 90-93 mph, and the world-class slider wasn't on constant display like it was against Duke a week ago.

 

It'd still be a surprise if Rodon wasn't the first pitcher to come off the board come June, and it's difficult see him getting past the Chicago Cubs with the fourth pick. "

 

Trea Turner

 

""There have been days [seeing Turner] where I've thought he looked like a top-10 pick," an AL East scout said. "But there are days where I'm not sure I'd give him much more than a 50 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] grade. "

 

Kyle Freeland from Evansville is a top 15 pick with some of the most dominating numbers (87/4 K:BB) projects as a mid-rotation guy. Questions about his mechanics due to a low arm slot.

 

Brandon Finnegan from TCU is projected to go in the 5-15 range, there are durability concerns due to his size.

 

The final bit is on the race for top C in the draft between Max Pentecost and IU's Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber has the better bat and power profile, but may not be able to stick at the position. He has been splitting time in LF, but scouts don't believe he can handle the position as a pro. Pentecost seems like a lock to stay at C, but there is not the upside of Schwarbers bat.

 

Wonder how much of that velocity drop was due to the 134 pitch outing the week before?

 

Otherwise, you're talking someone throwing the same velocity as a Quintana or Santiago...but with a nastier swing and miss out pitch than either.

 

 

[harfman77]

Wonder how much of that velocity drop was due to the 134 pitch outing the week before?

 

Otherwise, you're talking someone throwing the same velocity as a Quintana or Santiago...but with a nastier swing and miss out pitch than either.

 

The velocity has not been the issue, more of the command. He has had a hard time getting the FB over for strikes, so he is essentially a one pitch guy right now and that won't fly in pro ball even with an 80 slider. As has been cited in this thread, the problems are likely related to his relative mis-use by the NCSU coaching staff. They are trying to win games now knowing they are losing two first rounders and are doing what is best for their program not what is best for Rodon developmentally.

 

I think Rodon eventually works out to the ace everyone thought he was going to be, but it is going to take more time as he develops his other pitches to make them at least ML average and gets his command in check.

[southsider2k5]

The question is if he is there, could the Sox sign Rodon for slot? That is really all that matters here.

[caulfield12]

The velocity has not been the issue, more of the command. He has had a hard time getting the FB over for strikes, so he is essentially a one pitch guy right now and that won't fly in pro ball even with an 80 slider. As has been cited in this thread, the problems are likely related to his relative mis-use by the NCSU coaching staff. They are trying to win games now knowing they are losing two first rounders and are doing what is best for their program not what is best for Rodon developmentally.

 

I think Rodon eventually works out to the ace everyone thought he was going to be, but it is going to take more time as he develops his other pitches to make them at least ML average and gets his command in check.

 

And there's the biggest question of this draft. Without over-reliance on the slider, can he put up a change/curve/cutter/sinker that will keep them off his fastball without being too similar in speed to his other pitches?...and/or can he learn to vary velocity/location (think Mark Buehrle) with a single pitch or two enough to knock their timing mechanism off just a hair?

 

A good example of this is Danks. When he's throwing fastballs 87-89, he's probably going to get less swings and misses/K's if everything else he's throwing up there is in the 81-84 range. Back to that 10 MPH difference in pitch speed being invaluable.

 

That's ONE reason to be encouraged about Erik Johnson. He's been able to break out some impressive offspeed stuff in recent starts that is compensating for his 2-3 MPH dropoff in velocity.

Edited April 21, 2014 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

The question is if he is there, could the Sox sign Rodon for slot? That is really all that matters here.

 

And how can you take that risk knowing that Boras won't give you that number until after the selection is made...unless Rodon himself orders it to happen, which is highly unlikely with a Boras client (not unheard of, but still).

 

On the other hand, he's only got a handful of clubs that can give him anything resembling the top dollar number he's looking for, so he's risking another Appel situation that blows up in his face if Rodon goes down to injury next year coming back for the 2015 draft.

Edited April 21, 2014 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

And how can you take that risk knowing that Boras won't give you that number until after the selection is made...unless Rodon himself orders it to happen, which is highly unlikely with a Boras client (not unheard of, but still).

 

On the other hand, he's only got a handful of clubs that can give him anything resembling the top dollar number he's looking for, so he's risking another Appel situation that blows up in his face if Rodon goes down to injury next year coming back for the 2015 draft.

 

You can't. If they won't play ball, you move on to the next guy. You absolutely cannnot lose this pick. If that means passing on him, so be it.

 

[Quin]

You can't. If they won't play ball, you move on to the next guy. You absolutely cannnot lose this pick. If that means passing on him, so be it.

 

Right.

 

You talk to Rodon first and say "Here's our offer. Take it or leave it. We'll fast track you to the majors even, but this is our offer."

 

If Rodon declines, THEN you move to Hoffman.

Edited April 21, 2014 by Quinarvy

[ILMOU]

Right.

 

You talk to Rodon first and say "Here's our offer. Take it or leave it. We'll fast track you to the majors even, but this is our offer."

 

If Rodon declines, THEN you move to Hoffman.

Interpreting the consensus of what I've been reading the last few days, Hoffman may now be ahead of Rodon in most minds. But it's fluid.

[Quin]

Interpreting the consensus of what I've been reading the last few days, Hoffman may now be ahead of Rodon in most minds. But it's fluid.

 

I disagree with that, but yeah.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Ready for this draft. Need to get it right

[hi8is]

Ready for this draft. Need to get it right

Is it tomorrow?

 

[oneofthemikes]

Is it tomorrow?

 

It is. Slight change of plans. Hooray for Draft Day (the day, not the movie.)

[Dick Allen]

Trea Turner with 2 HRs tonight. Making that late push to be pick number 3!

I read where Turner may be the only SS drafted in the top 250. If you get a good SS, you better keep him.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I read where Turner may be the only SS drafted in the top 250. If you get a good SS, you better keep him.

 

 

Not a chance. Nick Gordon, the son of Tom Gordon, will be the first SS off the board in the 8-15 range.