2014 Draft class

[harfman77]

Read this.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/...on-taillon/#all

 

 

http://www.espn.go.com/blog/high-school/ba...alks-tommy-john

 

So we should take nobody?

[Dick Allen]

So we should take nobody?

Yes. Just pass on the draft.

[Chicago White Sox]

HS pitchers typically have the highest bust rates of 1st round picks, but if Rodon is gone I'm not sure how you justify passing on Aiken or Kolek when there is such a disparity in talent between and the next tier of college arms. Regardless of your risk tolerance for HS arms in general, the decision seems like a no-brainer to me if Rodon is off the board when we pick.

[Eminor3rd]

Read this.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/...on-taillon/#all

 

 

http://www.espn.go.com/blog/high-school/ba...alks-tommy-john

 

Could be why Aiken is the best choice, though. Doesn't throw quite as hard.

[southsider2k5]

And now you can play the fun game of listing 30+ names who have had Tommy John Surgery in the last couple months and saying you should be wary of drafting any pitchers while you're at it.

 

And logically it is way worse to spend 8/9 figures on a pitcher that goes under the knife, versus one that you pay a 7 figures in the draft.

[Quin]

We should draft safe like McCulloch or Broadway.

[caulfield12]

HS pitchers typically have the highest bust rates of 1st round picks, but if Rodon is gone I'm not sure how you justify passing on Aiken or Kolek when there is such a disparity in talent between and the next tier of college arms. Regardless of your risk tolerance for HS arms in general, the decision seems like a no-brainer to me if Rodon is off the board when we pick.

 

With all the system-wide issues developing hitters, and concerns about guys like Hawkins/Thompson/Barnum that have started out younger at 18, etc., does anyone really believe they would select Jackson?

 

 

[Dick Allen]

We should draft safe like McCulloch or Broadway.

 

 

No one is suggesting that, but if Kolek was the one left standing, if it were me calling the shots, I would definitely consider a hitter, if there were no other pitchers worthy of the #3 pick. He seems destined to be hurt. It sounds crazy, but he throws too hard at this stage. I would want Rodon. I'd probably take Aiken. At least he took the winter off.

Edited May 13, 2014 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

You know what's going to happen....Jackson will be that one high school hitter that becomes the "next Mauer" and all three pitchers at the top of the draft will be flops.

 

We've seen all the stories about David Clyde, Van Poppel, comparisons to Clemens/Nolan Ryan. It's going to be nearly impossible to justify passing on Kolek...but it's also scary to me that we have to "project" Aiken to grow into his body or start throwing harder than he already is at 18 in order to be successful at the next level.

 

The White Sox have never been successful projecting any young high school pitchers...and haven't even attempted to incubate one, since Honel and Jason Stumm.

[harfman77]

No one is suggesting that, but if Kolek was the one left standing, if it were me calling the shots, I would definitely consider a hitter, if there were no other pitchers worthy of the #3 pick. He seems destined to be hurt. It sounds crazy, but he throws too hard at this stage. I would want Rodon. I'd probably take Aiken. At least he took the winter off.

 

But from all accounts, Rodon has just as many if not more concerns from how hard he throws coupled with the amount of sliders he throws and how he has been handled, Aiken would be the only one of the three that would be worth a shot. Every draft is a gamble. I would look at something else other than Kolek too, but mostly because I think he will be a RP in the majors, and I think there are other guys that would provide more value. But you can't really just disqualify him because he might get hurt, because the same thing can happen to any other player you select.

[Dick Allen]

But from all accounts, Rodon has just as many if not more concerns from how hard he throws coupled with the amount of sliders he throws and how he has been handled, Aiken would be the only one of the three that would be worth a shot. Every draft is a gamble. I would look at something else other than Kolek too, but mostly because I think he will be a RP in the majors, and I think there are other guys that would provide more value. But you can't really just disqualify him because he might get hurt, because the same thing can happen to any other player you select.

Rodon is older. They pitch once a week. Frankly from what I've read, Kolek might not get hurt, he will get hurt. That's why I wouldn't take him with #3. If I was drafting a little lower in the first round, then maybe I would take a shot, but the Sox cannot miss with this pick. To me Kolek is like a 100 lb. overweight chainsmoker with high blood pressure and a family history of heart disease delaying taking his social security until he's 70. Sure, it might pay off, but it is probably not wise to think it will. There will be a future star available when they pick.

[Quin]

Rodon is older. They pitch once a week. Frankly from what I've read, Kolek might not get hurt, he will get hurt. That's why I wouldn't take him with #3. If I was drafting a little lower in the first round, then maybe I would take a shot, but the Sox cannot miss with this pick. To me Kolek is like a 100 lb. overweight chainsmoker with high blood pressure and a family history of heart disease delaying taking his social security until he's 70. Sure, it might pay off, but it is probably not wise to think it will. There will be a future star available when they pick.

 

Because he's big (muscular, not fat) and throws a fireball?

 

What happens if he's a genetic freak that can hold up to that and they pass cause "he might get hurt."

[Dick Allen]

Because he's big (muscular, not fat) and throws a fireball?

 

What happens if he's a genetic freak that can hold up to that and they pass cause "he might get hurt."

He's really not all that muscular, but the research shows guys his age, with his routine, and throw in his neighborhood velocity-wise, wind up on the shelf for a while. There is a 69% bust rate for HS pitchers taken in the top 30.

[ptatc]

Yeah, I get that. But injury concerns apply to most any pitching prospect. Chris Sale and Tyler Danish were thought to be risky. Erick Fedde and Jeff Hoffman didn't seem any more likely to go down to TJ than the next guy. It is a super important concern, but I don't think it applies more specifically to Kolek (who I think is clearly behind Aiken and Rodon but ahead of the lower-ceiling college guys) than others. Injury concerns considered and weighted among the risk/reward, Kolek is still a better prospect than the others. Now, if the Sox feel that another prospect grades out ahead of Kolek, by all means they should draft him.

Thus if the Sox pass on him for injury concerns, they must really have a reason.

[royoung]

If you makes you guys feel any better about the possibility of us going outside of the top three, MLB's Jonathon Mayo and Jim Callis discussed the Cubs choices and Aiken, Rodon, or Kolek never came up.

 

 

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 38m

Seems that way. @SteveJB54: Are the top 3 really that clear/that much of a lock that the discussion at 4 shouldn't include them? @MLBDraft

Edited May 13, 2014 by southside hitman

[ILMOU]

Not only do I agree with this, but it brings me to one of the positives with Aiken is how well taken care of he has been by his coaching staff. Aiken has taken huge strides his junior to senior year.

Not to say Kolek has been abused because he hasn't, but it's something to consider. Not to seem ignorant, but Kolek is blessed with a big, strong body and serious arm action where Aiken seems to be close to a polished, well-rounded product.

 

Anyone who understands pitching mechanics has to love what they see in Aiken's easily-repeated, smooth delivery. It's hard not to love a left-hander who works mid 90's but still goes about his pitching by utilitzing his change up. Certainly everyone is going to make the parallels to Clayton Kershaw being a the last big time prep lefty but the comparison I really like is Cliff Lee. Sure, his control would have to be next to impeccable to be a Cliff Lee type but there are a lot of striking similarities with the easy motion and the pitchability. He is the type of pitcher that you can tell to throw 90% and he still has the stuff to dominate. Being a lefty with a change up like his, any velocity over 92 could be called excess.

I'm with you Hare. Aiken is the best plausible scenario at this juncture. I'm liking that Nolan and Co. are scouting Kolek - hopeful local sentiment wins out.

[royoung]

Not only do I agree with this, but it brings me to one of the positives with Aiken is how well taken care of he has been by his coaching staff. Aiken has taken huge strides his junior to senior year.

Not to say Kolek has been abused because he hasn't, but it's something to consider. Not to seem ignorant, but Kolek is blessed with a big, strong body and serious arm action where Aiken seems to be close to a polished, well-rounded product.

 

Anyone who understands pitching mechanics has to love what they see in Aiken's easily-repeated, smooth delivery. It's hard not to love a left-hander who works mid 90's but still goes about his pitching by utilitzing his change up. Certainly everyone is going to make the parallels to Clayton Kershaw being a the last big time prep lefty but the comparison I really like is Cliff Lee. Sure, his control would have to be next to impeccable to be a Cliff Lee type but there are a lot of striking similarities with the easy motion and the pitchability. He is the type of pitcher that you can tell to throw 90% and he still has the stuff to dominate. Being a lefty with a change up like his, any velocity over 92 could be called excess.

 

I would be shocked if he slides to 3 but overjoyed if Aiken joins our organization. Rodon is a close second, and I share some of Dick's concerns with Kolek. However, is what is out there enticing enough to pass on his upside?

Edited May 14, 2014 by southside hitman

[farmteam]

Man I hope Aiken falls to 3.

 

And I'm in the minority on this (I think), but I wouldn't have a problem with taking a chance on Alex Jackson if Aiken is gone.

[Marty34]

Man I hope Aiken falls to 3.

 

And I'm in the minority on this (I think), but I wouldn't have a problem with taking a chance on Alex Jackson if Aiken is gone.

 

This is pretty close to the way I feel at the moment, but it will probably change tomorrow. I can't get over that I don't like Rodon's mechanics, not too mention the wear and tear, and Boras.

[oldsox]

The more I think about the reasons not to draft the top three pitchers, I feel like the Sox will fool a lot of us and might actually take a position player. Who is the best college hitter available in the draft?

Edited May 14, 2014 by oldsox

[Quin]

The more I think about the reasons not tomdraft the top three pitchers, I feel like the Sox will fool a lot of us and might actually take a position player. Who is the best college hitter available in the draft?

 

Bradley Zimmer, OF from San Francisco. Projected around the 10-15 area.

 

Bradley Zimmer's Player Profile

 

Hit / On-base – There is quite a bit of swing and miss to Zimmer’s game, but he has shown that he’s willing to work the count in his favor, though his on-base percentage is a bit skewed by being hit by 16 pitches over the year.

 

Power – Right now Zimmer has only average raw power, but with his frame and his swing path I see the potential for above-average power, and potentially plus if everything is to go right.

 

Speed – You don’t see very many 6-5 outfielders with plus speed, but Zimmer has it both in the outfield and on the bases.

 

Glove – Zimmer has an absolute cannon of an arm (and has been clocked in the 90’s on the mound) and has the speed to play centerfield, but I think he profiles best as a right fielder at the next level, but a plus one.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2014/mlb-draft-p.../Bradley-Zimmer

 

So an athletic hitter with swing and miss issues. Give me a pitcher.

[maggsmaggs]

The more I think about the reasons not tomdraft the top three pitchers, I feel like the Sox will fool a lot of us and might actually take a position player. Who is the best college hitter available in the draft?

A lot of people like CF Bradley Zimmer from San Francisco, but he has struck out 33 times in 205 at-bats. That's alarming for a college hitter. SS Trea Turner from NC State, but he has been dropping. Kyle Schwarber from IU? Overall, it's bad college class for hitters.

[maggsmaggs]

Bradley Zimmer, OF from San Francisco. Projected around the 10-15 area.

 

Bradley Zimmer's Player Profile

 

Hit / On-base – There is quite a bit of swing and miss to Zimmer’s game, but he has shown that he’s willing to work the count in his favor, though his on-base percentage is a bit skewed by being hit by 16 pitches over the year.

 

Power – Right now Zimmer has only average raw power, but with his frame and his swing path I see the potential for above-average power, and potentially plus if everything is to go right.

 

Speed – You don’t see very many 6-5 outfielders with plus speed, but Zimmer has it both in the outfield and on the bases.

 

Glove – Zimmer has an absolute cannon of an arm (and has been clocked in the 90’s on the mound) and has the speed to play centerfield, but I think he profiles best as a right fielder at the next level, but a plus one.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2014/mlb-draft-p.../Bradley-Zimmer

 

So an athletic hitter with swing and miss issues. Give me a pitcher.

 

Seem's like Joe Borchard with less power.

[Quin]

Seem's like Joe Borchard with less power.

 

If the Sox draft anyone but a pitcher with the #3 pick, it will be a bad move IMO.

[Bruce_Blixton]

Seem's like Joe Borchard with less power.

 

He reminds me of Hunter Pence from what I've seen which wouldn't be bad but definitely not what we should be looking for in the third overall pick of the draft.