2014 Draft class

[royoung]

Or, he simply knows a lot of scouts and was spitballing to see if any of them would go "off the record" with what they've heard the White Sox were going to do...OR, they deliberately are putting bad information out there to throw other teams off, although having Nola in the Top 4-5 corresponds to a lot of independent reports out there recently.

 

In the beginning, we always heard they weren't as high on Kolek, but then a lot of contrary accounts have been introduced.

 

What was Bowden's draft (ESPN Insider)?

 

He picked Kolek for the Sox, but it was a "what would he do" style than based off any real world information.

[Dick Allen]

Who is Seth Lasko?

And why do you need a top 5 if you are picking 3rd? Seems this guy just wants to sound like an insider. Nothing earthshattering on that list.

[Buehrle>Wood]

And why do you need a top 5 if you are picking 3rd?

$$$$$$

[The Ultimate Champion]

Giolito was the 16th pick though. You can take risks in that range of the draft. At 3, you really want to make sure you hit on someone.

Everyone is a risk. You can't "make sure" of much of anything, and "hitting" on someone seems to describe the process very well, i.e. you identify a target, take aim and fire, but between you and target lie a whole host of variables you cannot control.

 

They put a graphic up last night on the boob tube about TJ surgery and how there is a 90% recovery rate where each pitcher comes back as healthy or better. That is terrific to know. Do you expect any of Kolek, Aiken, or Rodon to never have to need surgery?

 

If Hoffman was their guy before, then he should still be on their radar now. They don't need to give him an MLB deal, and can get him way under slot, and doing so could allow for a very deep draft by spreading money around in every area. Basically it's the equivalent of trading a pick which you can't do, but same thing, you're "trading" the bonus money and opting to play the numbers game.

 

I think it's a really cool idea and not as "risky" as it may seem. In fact if you get more better prospects then you might be pretty much mitigating that risk entirely.

Edited May 29, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[witesoxfan]

$$$$$$

 

Or injuries. That could be the Sox top 5 right now.

[caulfield12]

Thats true, but I am not sure there is a sure thing out there. But there are some pretty big red flags on all the pitchers the Sox will likely have available at 3. Rodon is said to have reliever level control and struggles to pitch off his fastball, Kolek's frame is a concern as well as his lack of a plus secondary offering, Nola has concerns about his arm slot and ceiling, Hoffman obviously has the injury concern now, Holmes is thought to be physically maxed out. Jackson seems to be the consensus best bat in the draft, so I would roll the dice on him at a full slot rate especially since he has a pretty highly thought of hit tool, which is something that the OF's in the system seriously lack. I would be more inclined to take Hoffman than any of the rest IF he would sign for what he is projected to get from the BJ's at the 11th pick. That would allow the Sox to have an additional $3M dollars to go over slot throughout the draft, which would essentially allow then to go over slot in rounds 2 and three to sign guys that slip and sign guys like Octavio Rodriguez that they drafted late last season.

 

Hoffman is just too much risk for the #3 pick.

 

The highest someone in that situation before went is Giolito. The mid teens.

 

You're talking a year before he's pitching again, another year to bounce back to form (hopefully, if all goes well)...then you're pushing him back all the way into 2017 or 2018.

 

The White Sox are going to want a more immediate contributor than that...unless they believe that Aiken/Kolek are potential aces who can quickly get to the big leagues while Chris Sale/Abreu are still the core of the foundation in Chicago.

[The Ultimate Champion]

And why do you need a top 5 if you are picking 3rd? Seems this guy just wants to sound like an insider. Nothing earthshattering on that list.

Context, probably.

 

But in reality you would want to have a 4 & 5 in case of injury or something, or just some information that comes out very near to draft day that prompts a revision/change in course. Due diligence/covering your bases and such.

 

But overall, not sure why this guy would have information that is truly that specific.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Hoffman is just too much risk for the #3 pick.

 

The highest someone in that situation before went is Giolito. The mid teens.

 

You're talking a year before he's pitching again, another year to bounce back to form (hopefully, if all goes well)...then you're pushing him back all the way into 2017 or 2018.

 

The White Sox are going to want a more immediate contributor than that...unless they believe that Aiken/Kolek are potential aces who can quickly get to the big leagues while Chris Sale/Abreu are still the core of the foundation in Chicago.

 

 

God I hope they aren't thinking this way. Always take the best player. You don't have to take the best guy that is the closest to the majors. Draft the guy that is #1 on your board when it's time for your pick.

[Eminor3rd]

I just don't see how you roll the dice on an injury guy at #3 when that guy wasn't even clearly better than a healthy guy that's also available there.

[Quin]

Anyone other than Aiken/Rodon/Kolek/Nola is a failure.

[Dick Allen]

Context, probably.

 

But in reality you would want to have a 4 & 5 in case of injury or something, or just some information that comes out very near to draft day that prompts a revision/change in course. Due diligence/covering your bases and such.

 

But overall, not sure why this guy would have information that is truly that specific.

Either someone he trusts is feeding him some BS or he is probably trying to look like a shooter. The scouts might know who they like best, but I doubt they would know the order.

[Boopa1219]

If I am Rick Hahn and both Kolek and Aiken are off the board, I would draft Alex Jackson over Carlos Rodon.

[Eminor3rd]

Anyone other than Aiken/Rodon/Kolek/Nola is a failure.

 

I'm not going to be upset if they choose Jackson. But I will be upset if they pass on Rodon or Aiken.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I just don't see how you roll the dice on an injury guy at #3 when that guy wasn't even clearly better than a healthy guy that's also available there.

From the viewpoint of the Sox FO, let's say that everyone was perfectly healthy, and the Sox made a list 1-4 between Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Aiken of who they would most like to acquire. IF and ONLY IF Hoffman would have been the best guy available on that list at #3, then IMO, they should still strongly consider taking him and going with overslot guys there on out. There is no guarantee that any of these players picked will pitch several seasons of quality, fully healthy baseball with the White Sox or anyone else. So take your best guy.

 

The main reason I'm saying this is that somewhere in this thread bucket-of-suck posted something along the lines of Hoffman being the most talented guy in this draft. Now I actually buy into bucket having sources, so to me that is very interesting. If the Sox would have tabbed Hoffman as their #1 without injury, then I think they should still take him now, given the success rate of TJ surgery. And the fact that they could potentially add in guys in the 2-10 round range who ordinarily might go to school and re-enter the draft as 1st rounders, well that's a good way to hedge your bet.

 

And the only way this draft is a failure at #3 is if you draft a pitcher who you don't believe has a shot at being a true ace. Anything less would be uncivilized (stink for lack of deodorant/ambition).

[The Ultimate Champion]

I'm not going to be upset if they choose Jackson. But I will be upset if they pass on Rodon or Aiken.

I'll be upset if they take Nola over any of those guys. I don't want Rodon's negotiation difficulties but the talent is there. I guess I cap it at #3 slot money and tell the kid he can either take it or re-enter the draft, just be a f***ing hardass with Borass from Day 1. I could see that. No way am I playing Borass' stupid f***ing games though, f*** that guy. Sox have a FO that likes to make fair deals and Borass with his #1 guys never ever ever even considers a fair deal. He'll ask for #1 slot money & I'd tell him to buy a fleshlight and go f*** himself.

[Dick Allen]

You can't roll the dice with Hoffman. I think they said last night the full recovery rate of TJ surgery right now is 90%. You can't bet the ranch he will be a stud to begin with and he won't be one of the 10%.

 

Ironically, if they were drafting where they normally draft, it could be a good role of the dice.

[Dick Allen]

I'll be upset if they take Nola over any of those guys. I don't want Rodon's negotiation difficulties but the talent is there. I guess I cap it at #3 slot money and tell the kid he can either take it or re-enter the draft, just be a f***ing hardass with Borass from Day 1. I could see that. No way am I playing Borass' stupid f***ing games though, f*** that guy. Sox have a FO that likes to make fair deals and Borass with his #1 guys never ever ever even considers a fair deal. He'll ask for #1 slot money & I'd tell him to buy a fleshlight and go f*** himself.

Boras can only advise. He cannot negotiate. The White Sox are one of the teams that have turned in a player for using an "advisor" as an agent.

 

I really think it is overblown how tough of a signing he will be if he is a top 3 pick. He loses all leverage next year. Boras had Appel come back and he wound up going #1 but signed for 18% below slot.

[The Ultimate Champion]

You can't roll the dice with Hoffman. I think they said last night the full recovery rate of TJ surgery right now is 90%. You can't bet the ranch he will be a stud to begin with and he won't be one of the 10%.

 

Ironically, if they were drafting where they normally draft, it could be a good role of the dice.

See, I would look at Kolek, Rodon, and Aiken as all being at least 10% or more likely to need TJ anyway.

 

The stat they posted last night was that 1 of every 3-4 pitchers need TJ during their career, so best case that's roughly 25% chance any of these "healthy" guys gets hurt as it is.

 

I think, especially given how successful Sale has been and how Danish is IMO our #1 prospect, we need to start to rethink how we're approaching pitcher injuries. It seems the shoulder injuries are the ones you really worry about, not so much TJ, like with Danks and Freddy, and Johan, that's a long damn road and pretty unlikely you'll be back at 100% ever.

 

Personally I don't know s*** compared to the people making decisions here (okay so I'm probably worthy of employment over Buddy Bell but that's nothing to shout about), but anyway, if the people at the very top had Hoffman as their guy before, then I think they need to really consider that. It could be a blessing for all we know, because if he comes back 100% and becomes a high quality MLB pitcher, AND we get a much better draft 2 and beyond as a result of it, then that's worth gambling on IMO.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Having that doctor from Rush on the game last night was really cool, and hopefully they do more of that kind of stuff.

 

Here's the thing about Hoffman, and again I'm saying this mostly because I'm intrigued by what bucket posted here, but IF the Sox feel that Hoffman's mechanics are solid AND that his stuff is #1 quality, then shouldn't we assume that the TJ surgery is just due to normal wear and tear of a pitcher's arm? If he comes back fully healthy, again apparently a 90% chance of this, aren't his mechanics then indicative of someone capable of pitching through most of if not all of the 7-9 years or so necessary for a prospect to make it to MLB and get to FA?

 

If the stuff is there, the mechanics are there, and the Sox really wanted this guy from the get-go, I say take him. But that's just assuming this is all the case. But get the guy you want, and don't let him go to the Blue Jays or something because you're a-scared. If you're a-scared, buy a dog, then draft the guy you want anyway.

 

One of my favorite Celtic folk singers, Miss Kate Rusby has a song called "A Rose in April" which is about a young woman of great beauty who blah blah blah I'm not going to get into it but basically this song (

was written for the Sox FO re: Hoffman. The refrain is "You were a rose in April/And still a rose in June" and the way I see it, if Hoffman was your rose in April, he should still be your rose in June. Now I'm not sure if Hoffman himself would like this song because IIRC I read he's into rap, which of course is a sign of low intelligence, but that's okay, he doesn't need to be smart, just good.

 

Food for thought.

Edited May 29, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[Dick Allen]

It would really be interesting to see which one of these guys with "inside knowledge and sources" really had what they claimed. But the only way that would happen is if all 3 of the pitchers were available. Frankly, right now there is probably a 95% chance the Sox will pick one of the guys the Charlotte writer listed. Any of us could come up with that list though. Some say they really want Aiken. Some say they love Kolek, some say Rodon is their man. Supposedly Hoffman was their guy until he had surgery. Sounds like a lot of insiders are full of you know what.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Dick Allen

[oneofthemikes]

Everyone is a risk. You can't "make sure" of much of anything, and "hitting" on someone seems to describe the process very well, i.e. you identify a target, take aim and fire, but between you and target lie a whole host of variables you cannot control.

 

They put a graphic up last night on the boob tube about TJ surgery and how there is a 90% recovery rate where each pitcher comes back as healthy or better. That is terrific to know. Do you expect any of Kolek, Aiken, or Rodon to never have to need surgery?

 

If Hoffman was their guy before, then he should still be on their radar now. They don't need to give him an MLB deal, and can get him way under slot, and doing so could allow for a very deep draft by spreading money around in every area. Basically it's the equivalent of trading a pick which you can't do, but same thing, you're "trading" the bonus money and opting to play the numbers game.

 

I think it's a really cool idea and not as "risky" as it may seem. In fact if you get more better prospects then you might be pretty much mitigating that risk entirely.

 

Wow. Didn't realize that the recovery rate was that high. That's awesome.

[Soxfest]

I was starting to warm to the idea of Kolek until I saw the Brad Penny comp. If Aikens gone, I say Jackson or Hoffman at #11 slot money.

Not a big fan of Kolek either.

[Eminor3rd]

Wow. Didn't realize that the recovery rate was that high. That's awesome.

 

The rate from the first TJ is that high, but the rate from the second TJ is absolutely horrible. If a guy has one and doesn't significantly change his mechanics, he's a safe bet to need another at some point. The sooner he has one, the sooner he has another.

[witesoxfan]

The rate from the first TJ is that high, but the rate from the second TJ is absolutely horrible. If a guy has one and doesn't significantly change his mechanics, he's a safe bet to need another at some point. The sooner he has one, the sooner he has another.

 

You get careers that look like this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo09.shtml

[Paulstar]

I'd be shocked if the White Sox don't end up with one of Rodon, Aiken, or Nola, in that order. The only reason why Aiken is a possibility is because of how polished he is as a pitcher and the fact it isn't unrealistic to think he could be up in the big leagues by his 21st BDay if everything goes right, and he definitely has some Clayton Kershaw to him.

 

I think Rodon is the favorite in the org. because he is a legit no. 1 pick talent and fits into the compete soon timeline. Hell, I could see him offered a somewhat similar deal to Chris Sale where if he signs around slot, he'll get a chance with the MLB team this season. And that could really intrigue anyone who is as much of a competitor that Rodon is.

 

If Kolek is the pick, I would not be a fan. With him throwing well across his body with his type of velocity, it just screams a career full of arm injuries to me. You couple that with him not being even that polished of a pitcher yet, I don't see how he fits with the White Sox timeline. Now, I completely understand every pitcher is a risk and some guys will last forever with terrible mechanics and other guys with perfect mechanics will never stay healthy.

 

Hopefully with a little bit of luck, Gillaspie or Burdie fall to the Sox pick in the second round.