2014 Draft class

[harfman77]

You can't roll the dice with Hoffman. I think they said last night the full recovery rate of TJ surgery right now is 90%. You can't bet the ranch he will be a stud to begin with and he won't be one of the 10%.

 

Ironically, if they were drafting where they normally draft, it could be a good role of the dice.

 

There is probably a less than 40% chance that any of the pitchers reach their ceilings, if you can get the guy you originally wanted and add two more 1st round caliber players later in the draft, like Kodi Medeiros and Jacob Gatewood, I would take that as a win.

 

Edit: I don't think this is the path the Sox will take, but I think that it should at least be in the discussion. I prefer Aiken to anyone in the draft followed by Jackson and then could care less who they take if those two are gone.

Edited May 29, 2014 by IowaSoxFan

[The Ultimate Champion]

There is probably a less than 40% chance that any of the pitchers reach their ceilings, if you can get the guy you originally wanted and add two more 1st round caliber players later in the draft, like Kodi Medeiros and Jacob Gatewood, I would take that as a win.

 

Edit: I don't think this is the path the Sox will take, but I think that it should at least be in the discussion. I prefer Aiken to anyone in the draft followed by Jackson and then could care less who they take if those two are gone.

It's almost a certainty that when the 2nd round pick comes there will be a 15-25 range guy available with the ceiling of an above average starter either in the field or on the mound. If that guy would ordinarily go to school, well, money leftover from #1 could seriously change things. Then in Round 3 there will be a few guys who should have gone in Round 2, and so on.

 

I definitely agree on Aiken though, but I don't think he's there. He'll be gone by the time we pick IMO.

[The Ultimate Champion]

The rate from the first TJ is that high, but the rate from the second TJ is absolutely horrible. If a guy has one and doesn't significantly change his mechanics, he's a safe bet to need another at some point. The sooner he has one, the sooner he has another.

The normal act of pitching on anyone with any mechanics can and likely will lead to TJ for most players. If the Sox feel Hoffman's mechanics are clean and the need for TJ is just a normal wear and tear event, then you don't immediately suspect another TJ is on the horizon.

 

Similarly, just because you take another "healthy" pitcher who also seems to have fairly clean mechanics doesn't mean he'll even make it to arb before getting hurt.

 

And in theory, you'd rather have the TJ stuff come at a time when a player isn't accruing MLB service time and isn't taking up option years.

 

I think the idea of injury = bad mechanics = likely follow-up injury isn't really how it works.

[The Ultimate Champion]

PTATC should come in here and talk more about this. He is our Medical Steverson, or Health Steverson, etc. Arm Steverson.

 

Edit: also I downloaded a penis enlargement program I'm at a solid 8 but was thinking about trying some techniques to get that sucker up to about 11" or so, was wondering if PTATC has any info on proper enlargement practices & so on. Thanks I'll hang up and listen.

Edited May 29, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[Dick Allen]

There is probably a less than 40% chance that any of the pitchers reach their ceilings, if you can get the guy you originally wanted and add two more 1st round caliber players later in the draft, like Kodi Medeiros and Jacob Gatewood, I would take that as a win.

 

Edit: I don't think this is the path the Sox will take, but I think that it should at least be in the discussion. I prefer Aiken to anyone in the draft followed by Jackson and then could care less who they take if those two are gone.

I still hope the Sox get Rodon. Last seasons losing was the Rodon Sweepstakes. He wasn't injured. His offseason routine did change and he struggled out of the gate. He was getting dominant again. If the Sox get him, I believe we will all be happy they did 4 or 5 years from now. The others, I'm not so sure.

[BaseballNick]

Heyman says Astros may consider going underslot again and draft Nick Gordon.

[southsider2k5]

Heyman says Astros may consider going underslot again and draft Nick Gordon.

 

To me that screams negotiating tactics.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

To me that screams negotiating tactics.

 

That would be the greatest thing that could happen for us.

[Eminor3rd]

You get careers that look like this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo09.shtml

 

Or this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoda01.shtml

[oldsox]

Did Hudson have a second TJS?

[hi8is]

Did Hudson have a second TJS?

I do believe so.

[southsider2k5]

Did Hudson have a second TJS?

 

Yes.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Josh Johnson had an excellent career overall in his Marlins days. I'll take that exact same thing from whoever the Sox get a #3. We should be looking for a guy who can get through the minors and put in 6 years, not hope on a 15-year career and so on.

 

As far as Hudson, no TJ before the draft. Mechanics didn't look all that great to the Sox, that's the rumor anyway. 2 TJ surgeries after being traded to AZ.

 

Not sure how any of this applies to Hoffman.

 

From what I gather, the act of pitching alone, regardless of mechanics, will lead to TJ in a large number of cases. Recovery should go well. If the Sox liked Hoffman's mechanics before then I'm not sure how you would look at him as a candidate for a second TJ immediately thereafter.

[Eminor3rd]

Josh Johnson had an excellent career overall in his Marlins days. I'll take that exact same thing from whoever the Sox get a #3. We should be looking for a guy who can get through the minors and put in 6 years, not hope on a 15-year career and so on.

 

As far as Hudson, no TJ before the draft. Mechanics didn't look all that great to the Sox, that's the rumor anyway. 2 TJ surgeries after being traded to AZ.

 

Not sure how any of this applies to Hoffman.

 

From what I gather, the act of pitching alone, regardless of mechanics, will lead to TJ in a large number of cases. Recovery should go well. If the Sox liked Hoffman's mechanics before then I'm not sure how you would look at him as a candidate for a second TJ immediately thereafter.

 

The point is that if you have one TJ, you've just moved up your timeline for a second. And almost (if not literally) no one has come back effective form the 2nd TJ.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I'll put out the PTATC signal...

 

ATTENTION PTATC PLEASE RESPOND IN THIS THREAD WE NEED YOU AGAIN

 

Okay I couldn't find an approprate image in google (actually I did find the perfect one but I'll link it rather than post: http://maneggs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011...nal_vandals.jpg )

 

So here's this instead:

[The Ultimate Champion]

The point is that if you have one TJ, you've just moved up your timeline for a second. And almost (if not literally) no one has come back effective form the 2nd TJ.

Okay but is this really a fair thing to assume? What % of pitchers have to get a second TJ within a few years of the first?

[Eminor3rd]

Okay but is this really a fair thing to assume? What % of pitchers have to get a second TJ within a few years of the first?

 

There definitely aren't enough cases to actually make an argument. Cory Luebke and Daniel Hudson jump to mind.

 

But either way, even it's not likely it'll happen within a few years, it's still true that you essentially lost a safety net. Like if Chris Sale had TJ, we'd all be really bummed, but not THAT bummed because we're pretty sure that we'll just lose a year and it'll be alright. But if we get Hoffman, say he pitches 2 years in the minors, then we have six years of him. For an eight year period, if TJ hits him, he's essentially done.

 

This risk is maybe worth it if he's the consensus top talent in the draft, but he's not. Some didn't even think he was the top tier before his injury.

[The Ultimate Champion]

There definitely aren't enough cases to actually make an argument. Cory Luebke and Daniel Hudson jump to mind.

 

But either way, even it's not likely it'll happen within a few years, it's still true that you essentially lost a safety net. Like if Chris Sale had TJ, we'd all be really bummed, but not THAT bummed because we're pretty sure that we'll just lose a year and it'll be alright. But if we get Hoffman, say he pitches 2 years in the minors, then we have six years of him. For an eight year period, if TJ hits him, he's essentially done.

 

This risk is maybe worth it if he's the consensus top talent in the draft, but he's not. Some didn't even think he was the top tier before his injury.

Okay I get what you're saying now.

 

My whole thing on Hoffman though is just under the assumption that this was the guy the Sox wanted. No matter what happens I would like to see upside & I would like to see them get the guy they want. Ex, if they wanted Hoffman #1 but Aiken & Rodon close #2, Kolek distant #3 or something, then take Aiken or Rodon if they're there, but if not, go get Hoffman, don't be a-scared, buy a dog if you're a-scared.

[Eminor3rd]

Okay I get what you're saying now.

 

My whole thing on Hoffman though is just under the assumption that this was the guy the Sox wanted. No matter what happens I would like to see upside & I would like to see them get the guy they want. Ex, if they wanted Hoffman #1 but Aiken & Rodon close #2, Kolek distant #3 or something, then take Aiken or Rodon if they're there, but if not, go get Hoffman, don't be a-scared, buy a dog if you're a-scared.

 

Yeah, if they think he's the consensus top guy, that's when you consider it. If they think someone else is even close though, I say you gotta get the healthy guy.

[Chicago White Sox]

I still hope the Sox get Rodon. Last seasons losing was the Rodon Sweepstakes. He wasn't injured. His offseason routine did change and he struggled out of the gate. He was getting dominant again. If the Sox get him, I believe we will all be happy they did 4 or 5 years from now. The others, I'm not so sure.

Agree. Rodon should be #1 on board followed by Aiken. After that it's hard to say, but I'd still roll the dice on Kolek.

[beautox]

Agree. Rodon should be #1 on board followed by Aiken. After that it's hard to say, but I'd still roll the dice on Kolek.

 

Agreed, Rodon fits very nicely with our timeline and i think the sox can break him in, in a similar fashion to Sale. His velocity is real and his breaking ball is the best in the draft hands down; that slider is nasty.

 

If we land him I'm very confident the sox will be able to develop his change-up well beyond a show me pitch and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him learn a cutter seeing how that seems to be this organizations pitch de jour.

 

If Rodon isn't there I Like Aiken the Kolek as both of them dove tail nicely with our next crop of arms in Danish and Montas

 

[maggsmaggs]

Speaking of TJS, the American Sports Medicine Institute released a position paper about the surgery.

 

http://www.asmi.org/research.php?page=rese...sitionstatement

 

Only about a couple pages. Real interesting.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I was starting to warm to the idea of Kolek until I saw the Brad Penny comp. If Aikens gone, I say Jackson or Hoffman at #11 slot money.

Comps are just that comps.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Anyone other than Aiken/Rodon/Kolek/Nola is a failure.

 

Why wouldn't we get one of the 3? Nola would be a surprise

[hi8is]

ESPN Insider request: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=9471

 

Who does Bowden have us taking? I see he has the Astros taking Rodon.