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2014 Draft class


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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:51 AM)
I'd LOVE Nola at say, pick 5 or 6. I can honestly even see an argument for taking him over Kolek or Aiken purely because you fear the uncertainty of HS pitchers.

 

But Nola over Rodon? They're both 1-2 years from having a shot to stick in the majors and Rodon has a way higher ceiling. I bet literally every team would take Rodon over Nola.

 

I believe you are right if all things are equal, but it muddies the water if Rodon would want to sign over slot and Nola would be willing to work a deal.

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QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:54 AM)
I've changed my tune on Kolek. Take the upside and hope. If he needs TJS in a year, well, join the club.

 

Take the kid, and draft a college pitcher at 44.

 

Me too. The more I actually watch him and read, the more I love his motion and mechanics and see upper 90's as sustainable and NOT max effort for him. I still prefer Rodon, but if we pop Kolek on draft day, I'll be content.

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QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:55 AM)
I believe you are right if all things are equal, but it muddies the water if Rodon would want to sign over slot and Nola would be willing to work a deal.

 

It's a consideration, certainly, but IMO, the only way you are better off going underslot in the first 5 picks is if you only see a marginal difference between your cheap guy and expensive guy. Otherwise, you're getting a shot at talent that you simply can't buy any other time of the year. Take the guy and pay him. The upside of the underslot is signing a 30-ish pick at 44. That isn't nothing, but it isn't worth passing on the consensus BPA at #3.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:33 AM)
Lol me too.

 

But I think they'd sign him. He's seen his stock plummet over the course of a year, he won't risk it to be put in a position with even less leverage next year.

 

I understand it's all about stuff and projectability, but I think it's funny people are considering Rodon's season such a disappointment. His numbers improved nearly across the board from last season, lower ERA, walk rate, and homer rate. The only things that spiked were his H/9, but when you decrease walks that will happen, his WHIP only increased slightly. His strikeout rate per nine innings for 2014 was actually above his mythical 2012 freshmen season number (10.67 to 10.60).

 

Honestly I think the biggest reason Rodon's stock fell this year is the incredibly scrutiny that was placed on him and the rise of the other prospects. I personally prefer Aiken, but if we ended up with Rodon we are getting a very, very good pitcher who has been a workhorse under the microscope for a long time.

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QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:54 AM)
I've changed my tune on Kolek. Take the upside and hope. If he needs TJS in a year, well, join the club.

 

Take the kid, and draft a college pitcher at 44.

 

Been a fan of his for a while. He's #1 on my board. Sox have the luxury of making a top 3 pick for the first time in decades. I would hope they take a guy who has the best upside they feel in the draft left after the first two picks.

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Agree with everyone, I feel like I've been reading weaknesses on players for 4 months and only in past week have I come around on each's strength. I feel ecstatic with Rodon, and happy with Aiken, Kolek and even Nola.

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QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:08 AM)
I understand it's all about stuff and projectability, but I think it's funny people are considering Rodon's season such a disappointment. His numbers improved nearly across the board from last season, lower ERA, walk rate, and homer rate. The only things that spiked were his H/9, but when you decrease walks that will happen, his WHIP only increased slightly. His strikeout rate per nine innings for 2014 was actually above his mythical 2012 freshmen season number (10.67 to 10.60).

 

Honestly I think the biggest reason Rodon's stock fell this year is the incredibly scrutiny that was placed on him and the rise of the other prospects. I personally prefer Aiken, but if we ended up with Rodon we are getting a very, very good pitcher who has been a workhorse under the microscope for a long time.

 

From what I've read/heard on podcasts, the knock on Rodon has been the inconsistency of his stuff. The velocity has fluctuated a lot and there have been starts where he only "flashes" his 80 slider. As always, you fear that kind of inconsistency because pitchers' raw "stuff" tends to decline steadily from the day they are drafted; guys never throw harder than in their early 20's, typically.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:12 AM)
From what I've read/heard on podcasts, the knock on Rodon has been the inconsistency of his stuff. The velocity has fluctuated a lot and there have been starts where he only "flashes" his 80 slider. As always, you fear that kind of inconsistency because pitchers' raw "stuff" tends to decline steadily from the day they are drafted; guys never throw harder than in their early 20's, typically.

 

I thought the biggest knock on him this season was his fastball command, I didn't hear many complaints about his slider, aside from overusing it. But the "inconsistency of his stuff" could be a byproduct of the increased attention, if you see every single pitch he throws all year, you aren't going to get eye-popping stuff every outing.

 

My point on Rodon, and again remember I prefer Aiken and would be fine with Kolek, is that he's had 49 starts in college under intense scrutiny and pitched extremely well. Even when is stuff wasn't on, he rarely gets rocked or leaves a game early. Brady Aiken made 11 starts this year against local high school batters, that's a very small sample size to justify a 5.71 million decision. I will be fascinated on Thursday if the Sox have to choose between Rodon and Kolek/Aiken or even Nola and Kolek/Aiken.

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QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:44 AM)
Will there be a predictions thread tomorrow or will we just post our predictions here?

There will be a pinned thread in PHT tomorrow, with a link to the tracker in the OP and discussion, which can be used for that.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:58 AM)
There will be a pinned thread in PHT tomorrow, with a link to the tracker in the OP and discussion, which can be used for that.

OK cool, thanks for the heads up. Now, if only I could decide on what my predictions will be.

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QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:41 AM)
I thought the biggest knock on him this season was his fastball command, I didn't hear many complaints about his slider, aside from overusing it. But the "inconsistency of his stuff" could be a byproduct of the increased attention, if you see every single pitch he throws all year, you aren't going to get eye-popping stuff every outing.

 

My point on Rodon, and again remember I prefer Aiken and would be fine with Kolek, is that he's had 49 starts in college under intense scrutiny and pitched extremely well. Even when is stuff wasn't on, he rarely gets rocked or leaves a game early. Brady Aiken made 11 starts this year against local high school batters, that's a very small sample size to justify a 5.71 million decision. I will be fascinated on Thursday if the Sox have to choose between Rodon and Kolek/Aiken or even Nola and Kolek/Aiken.

 

One of the interesting thing I heard Jason parks say regarding Rodon was that for anyone who has seen his best, it's impossible to erase "what's possible" in your head. The fact that he's been so good at times means that he "can" be that good if you can make him consistent (assuming stuff doesn't degrade). Even though this isn't a slam dunk because so many things can change, it is, in a way, a MUCH safer assessment of ceiling than something based solely on "projection." Put another way, maybe we can imagine Aiken/Kolek's ceiling as high or higher than Rodon's if they learn to to the things we think they could learn to do, but we've actually seen Rodon DO these things at some point or another.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:30 AM)
All righty folks, this is where all of the draft day discussion will happen.

 

Let's start it off with predictions of who the White Sox end up with.

 

I will guess Kolek.

 

 

Hoping Kolek (assuming Aiken and Rodon are gone), ready for Nola, though.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:19 AM)
One of the interesting thing I heard Jason parks say regarding Rodon was that for anyone who has seen his best, it's impossible to erase "what's possible" in your head. The fact that he's been so good at times means that he "can" be that good if you can make him consistent (assuming stuff doesn't degrade). Even though this isn't a slam dunk because so many things can change, it is, in a way, a MUCH safer assessment of ceiling than something based solely on "projection." Put another way, maybe we can imagine Aiken/Kolek's ceiling as high or higher than Rodon's if they learn to to the things we think they could learn to do, but we've actually seen Rodon DO these things at some point or another.

Where was Parks discussing it? Fringe Average podcast?

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:58 AM)
It's a consideration, certainly, but IMO, the only way you are better off going underslot in the first 5 picks is if you only see a marginal difference between your cheap guy and expensive guy. Otherwise, you're getting a shot at talent that you simply can't buy any other time of the year. Take the guy and pay him. The upside of the underslot is signing a 30-ish pick at 44. That isn't nothing, but it isn't worth passing on the consensus BPA at #3.

This is the way I think too. In that perspective, the underslot strategy is a zero sum game at best, and a losing proposition with lower upside at worst. If Rodon's there, the Sox should (and I think definitely will) take him. Can't wait for tomorrow night!

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Have an uneasy feeling that through some mix of scouting and money that the Sox will not select the consensus best player available at #3.

 

Marty is pessimistic. In other shocking news, Siberia is cold and Kate Upton has huge tits.

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