Balta1701 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:05 PM) Thankfully we don't have a pitching coach with a record of teaching people how to give up a few miles per hour on their fastball in exchange for better movement and control, because if we did you'd probably feel pretty dumb for writing that. To illustrate this point, in 2012 batters hit .273 with a .765 OPS against Reed's fastball. In 2013, batters hit .180 with a .544 OPS against Reed's fastball. There was also a significant and measureable increase in how much downward movement his fastball showed in 2013. His Home run rate on the fastball went down and his ground ball rate went up. Also worth noting...the performance of every one of his pitches showed marked improvement in 2013. The slider was only slightly better, but his change was more effective as well, holding opposing hitters to a .238 OPS (yes that's right). So even though he may have sacrificed some velocity, it did not impact the effectiveness of his other pitches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:10 PM) That's all well and good, but that 83% save percentage says maybe he should keep the velocity, B! This is of course roughly equivalent to saying that Chris Sale is useless, after all look at his win-loss record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:13 PM) To illustrate this point, in 2012 batters hit .273 with a .765 OPS against Reed's fastball. In 2013, batters hit .180 with a .544 OPS against Reed's fastball. There was also a significant and measureable increase in how much downward movement his fastball showed in 2013. His Home run rate on the fastball went down and his ground ball rate went up. What about the save percentage? Sox would have been better served going with a closer by committee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:15 PM) This is of course roughly equivalent to saying that Chris Sale is useless, after all look at his win-loss record. No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:17 PM) What about the save percentage? Sox would have been better served going with a closer by committee. And Chris Sale should have been sent to the minors, after all he lost more games than he won! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:18 PM) No. Wow, that is a detailed refutation of my point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 FWIW, the Pirates got almost all of their starters to give up 2-3 MPH on the velocity/gun readings for the fastball and ditched four seamers for two-seamers with more downward movement....thus more groundballs, fewer homers, more balls hit into the defensive shifts. Velocity alone doesn't mean anything. We've all seen Nate Jones or Jenks get lit up with 97-98 MPH straight stuff...and we've all seen pitchers like Contreras or Garland dominate with low 90's splitters/sinkers. Francisco Liriano fell out of our rotation late in the season, yet became one of the best starters in baseball at a lower velocity with more movement the following year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:19 PM) Wow, that is a detailed refutation of my point. It's as detailed as needs to be given your point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 (edited) I think we can all agree Reed's very unlikely to become another Mariano Rivera and is more like Sergio Santos...which is a mid-tier, #11-20 in the game closer. He's not elite....and he's not bad, certainly not bad enough to pull him from the role. Is he likely to improve? And by how much? A lot here would prefer to give the job to Jones or Webb, for example. Both have better pure stuff than Addison. Yet do either have that "closer mentality" that Reed's had since his college days at SDSU, backing up Strasburg...? How much is he worth to other teams in terms of trade value? That's the biggest question....if the 2014 season starts to go south. Edited October 16, 2013 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:20 PM) It's as detailed as needs to be given your point. Bullsh*t. Either make a useful point or go away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:24 PM) Bullsh*t. Either make a useful point or go away. You like Reed as closer more than I do. I want a guy who after Coop takes their velocity away still throws mid-to-high 90's closing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:31 PM) You like Reed as closer more than I do. I want a guy who after Coop takes their velocity away still throws mid-to-high 90's closing. I want a guy who holds opponents to a .600 OPS overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:34 PM) I want a guy who holds opponents to a .600 OPS overall. Personal preference, B. Either way I think we both can agree 83% save percentage needs to be bettered by whoever the closer is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:31 PM) You like Reed as closer more than I do. I want a guy who after Coop takes their velocity away still throws mid-to-high 90's closing. So basically you want a guy that averages 100 MPH with a straight fastball. Or Nate Jones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:37 PM) So basically you want a guy that averages 100 MPH with a straight fastball. Or Nate Jones. No, I don't like Nate Jones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:37 PM) Personal preference, B. Either way I think we both can agree 83% save percentage needs to be bettered by whoever the closer is. Yes. It would also be nice if he could allow a run every now and then rather than having to be perfect. Oh, and you may as well remove one of those blown saves from his line and give it to Gordon Beckham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:38 PM) No, I don't like Nate Jones. Got it, so you want the team to forfeit all games after 8 innings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:38 PM) No, I don't like Nate Jones. I'm aware, even though it makes no logical sense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Nook LaLoosh or Sidd Finch would do nicely. 2005 Bobby Jenks? The funny thing is that the best closer in the game today is with the Red Sox, and he hardly throws much harder than Shingo Takatsu's straight 90 MPH fastball. The difference is his incredible movement and variety of pitches/angles. Not a one trick pony. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 12:43 PM) Got it, so you want the team to forfeit all games after 8 innings. Seems like he's probably saying Webb... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:37 PM) Personal preference, B. Either way I think we both can agree 83% save percentage needs to be bettered by whoever the closer is. And I think Chris Sale's 8-11 record needs to be bettered by whoever the #1 starter is as well. Every single measurable from Reed suggests his body of work last year is poorly reflected by his below-average save percentage. If that's the only thing you're looking at then you're just finding excuses not to like his performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 12:44 PM) And I think Chris Sale's 8-11 record needs to be bettered by whoever the #1 starter is as well. Every single measurable from Reed suggests his body of work last year is poorly reflected by his below-average save percentage. If that's the only thing you're looking at then you're just finding excuses not to like his performance. Or we could have done the same with Sergio Santos falling apart down the stretch in 2011 and that being the sign of a future career-threatening injury....his save percentage for most of the season was well above 85% until the Tigers torched him at least twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:44 PM) Seems like he's probably saying Webb... I'd have no issue with him dominating and stealing the job from Reed, but he's still definitely a work in progress. Reed appeared a lot more polished when he came up to my eyes, even though their first "cup of coffee" performances were similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 You obviously can't do this, but taking Reed's line against Cleveland out vastly improves it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 12:18 PM) We've seen this pen in in action and it wasnt all that impressive. Reed is close to being just another pen arm, Jones is just another pen arm, and Crain is coming off of a shoulder injury. Webb has the stuff to be closer, we'll see. Here's the problem, though: bullpens are the most unpredictable group of guys in baseball form year to year. This evidence is everywhere. Elite bullpens come out of nowhere each year, and formerly elite bullpens crash and burn. Their use is so context-driven and their appearance make up such small samples, that treating them as guaranteed is asking for failure, What is important is that you have some guys with good stuff and are coachable, and you employ them the best you can. These guys all have good stuff. There's a ton of upside as well as downside, but for our 99 loss team, I don;t want them blowing money here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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