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Jesse Crain dealt to Tampa Bay


southsider2k5

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:10 PM)
That's all well and good, but that 83% save percentage says maybe he should keep the velocity, B!

 

83% save percentage says nothing at all, unfortunately, in terms of predicting future success.

 

Especially given he was in front of the worst defense in the league.

Edited by Eminor3rd
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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:14 PM)
Do you believe Addison Reed is an elite closer?

I'd say he's above average.

 

He pitched more innings than anyone in the league with more than 30 saves, he saved nearly 2/3 of his teams wins, and compared to other closers his K/9, K/BB, and WHIP are currently about average. And of course, that's as a 24 year old in his 2nd season.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:22 PM)
I'd say he's above average.

 

He pitched more innings than anyone in the league with more than 30 saves, he saved nearly 2/3 of his teams wins, and compared to other closers his K/9, K/BB, and WHIP are currently about average. And of course, that's as a 24 year old in his 2nd season.

 

Yeah, I agree. I think he certainly can be an elite closer. It'd be nice to see his average velocity up there, but his stuff is still good enough to get a lot of guys out.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:14 PM)
Do you believe Addison Reed is an elite closer?

 

No. But it has nothing to do with his save percentage. And I don't think we need to find an elite closer for 2014.

 

Reed also has more upside, and player dev should be a priority for next year.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:22 PM)
I'd say he's above average.

 

He pitched more innings than anyone in the league with more than 30 saves, he saved nearly 2/3 of his teams wins, and compared to other closers his K/9, K/BB, and WHIP are currently about average. And of course, that's as a 24 year old in his 2nd season.

 

I think that's fair, but closers are more likely to have short shelf lives as opposed to developing so I don't think his age is as big a plus as it would be for a player at another position.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:16 PM)
In reality then, isn't he dangerously close to being just another pen arm considering his velocity arrow is pointing down.

 

Let's take into consideration that closers are typically the best arms in the bullpen. Then let's consider that him being a top 10 closer would logically make him a top 10 reliever in the game. If he fell off to an average closer, that would still make him a good reliever. You can believe what you want to believe, but I truly do believe he is one of the best 15-20 relievers in the game. He's pretty damn solid.

 

A guy who could fall off and become a AAAA arm at any point is Lindstrom.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:27 PM)
Let's take into consideration that closers are typically the best arms in the bullpen. Then let's consider that him being a top 10 closer would logically make him a top 10 reliever in the game. If he fell off to an average closer, that would still make him a good reliever. You can believe what you want to believe, but I truly do believe he is one of the best 15-20 relievers in the game. He's pretty damn solid.

 

A guy who could fall off and become a AAAA arm at any point is Lindstrom.

 

To add to this, FWIW, Addison Reed ranked 13th of all RP in fWAR last year, ahead of guys like Aroldis Chpaman, Jason Grilli, and Mariano Rivera: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

Regardless of how you feel about fWAR, it is a stat based on FIP, which is designed to strip context (run support, bad defense, etc.) out of the pitcher's performance. This makes some intuitive sense considering how bad our defense was.

 

EDIT: Also, #8? Nate Jones

Edited by Eminor3rd
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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:32 PM)
To add to this, FWIW, Addison Reed ranked 13th of all RP in fWAR last year, ahead of guys like Aroldis Chpaman, Jason Grilli, and Mariano Rivera: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

Regardless of how you feel about fWAR, it is a stat based on FIP, which is designed to strip context (run support, bad defense, etc.) out of the pitcher's performance. This makes some intuitive sense considering how bad our defense was.

 

EDIT: Also, #8? Nate Jones

 

Nate Jones really did have a great, great year which was snake bitten by bad luck.

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You've really gotta question whether Reed was tired down the stretch. 3 of his 8 blown saves happened in the final month, and his ERA going into the 2nd to last game in August was a more than respectable 3.08.

 

Couple those 3 blown saves in what may have been a "Dead arm period" with the whole Beckham f*** up that cause another and that 84% doesn't look that bad.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:16 PM)
In reality then, isn't he dangerously close to being just another pen arm considering his velocity arrow is pointing down.

 

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:12 PM)
I'd like to see monthly splits on the velocity numbers before deciding if they are relevant.

 

All you have to do is look at his numbers after his consecutive saves streak to know what the problem was. 3 losses and 3 save ops were after that period of time. 9 of the 30 ER's he allowed were after that.

 

All you are doing with those numbers is being disingenuous.

 

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Here's his velocity chart. You can see the place where he pitched those consecutive games where there are all the overlapping dots late in the 13 season. I don't see an obvious drop in velocity afterwards, in fact it might have started going down beforehand.

10586_P_FA_20130928.png

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