Midseason top 25?

[Buehrle>Wood]

When does it come out

[danman31]

When does it come out

Hopefully this week. We have the list finalized and are just creating the content to go with it.

[danman31]

Looking forward to this, I am sure you guys will be making a thread for it?

Yep. The list will go on FutureSox in two parts and both will be posted here.

[oldsox]

Please don't make Courtney Hawkins #1.

[caulfield12]

Please don't make Courtney Hawkins #1.

 

 

You could still make a very legitimate/credible argument for him.

 

Erik Johnson will probably be the pick, but he's a very soft #1.

 

Tim Anderson can't really be considered for #1 if he can't stick at SS (most likely ticketed for 2B/CF).

 

Trayce Thompson, with how he's fallen off again back into the 240's, no way he can be #1, either. And he doesn't even have 10 homers yet this season.

 

Our system is a LOT deeper than a year or two years ago, but not many standout, surefire major league All-Stars....Hawkins is still the one with the most potential to become a superstar/highest ceiling.

 

Josh Phegley, even though he's now with the Sox, deserves to be recognized for a great half season, albeit not in the Top 5. Same with Micah Johnson.

Edited July 8, 2013 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

You could still make a very legitimate/credible argument for him.

 

Erik Johnson will probably be the pick, but he's a very soft #1.

 

Tim Anderson can't really be considered for #1 if he can't stick at SS (most likely ticketed for 2B/CF).

 

Trayce Thompson, with how he's fallen off again back into the 240's, no way he can be #1, either. And he doesn't even have 10 homers yet this season.

 

Our system is a LOT deeper than a year or two years ago, but not many standout, surefire major league All-Stars....Hawkins is still the one with the most potential to become a superstar/highest ceiling.

 

Josh Phegley, even though he's now with the Sox, deserves to be recognized for a great half season, albeit not in the Top 5. Same with Micah Johnson.

 

What makes you think Tim Anderson is "most likely ticketed for 2B/CF"?

 

Your general impression of the list I agree with - better overall depth, but weaker on top without any elite names.

 

[caulfield12]

What makes you think Tim Anderson is "most likely ticketed for 2B/CF"?

 

Your general impression of the list I agree with - better overall depth, but weaker on top without any elite names.

 

 

The mixed results (at best) defensively so far and a preponderance of the scouting reports before and after the draft.

 

That said, we all know that Derek Jeter made 50+ errors for Greensboro in 1993, so error totals in A ball don't matter quite so much because of the inferior fields/playing conditions/grounds crews.

 

If he keeps this up going into AA, though, they'll have to look at a position change. Same with Micah Johnson.

[Jake]

I haven't seen anything all that negative on Anderson's defense. My impression from most scouting reports is that folks haven't seen him enough to say for sure, so the easier stance to take is to say they don't know if he will stick yet not cite any specific weaknesses. Anyways, as someone else pointed out, it is fairly common for young infielders to commit a boatload of errors at the lower levels and eventually get better.

 

Conor Gillaspie is an example on the White Sox -- many questioned whether he could pick it when/after he was drafted, but began cutting his errors in half year by year until now, when he is a damn fine defender. This isn't to say Anderson is a lock to be a defensive wizard, but it is just difficult to say.

[NorthSideSox72]

I haven't seen anything all that negative on Anderson's defense. My impression from most scouting reports is that folks haven't seen him enough to say for sure, so the easier stance to take is to say they don't know if he will stick yet not cite any specific weaknesses. Anyways, as someone else pointed out, it is fairly common for young infielders to commit a boatload of errors at the lower levels and eventually get better.

 

Conor Gillaspie is an example on the White Sox -- many questioned whether he could pick it when/after he was drafted, but began cutting his errors in half year by year until now, when he is a damn fine defender. This isn't to say Anderson is a lock to be a defensive wizard, but it is just difficult to say.

This is more my impression. I haven't seen any specifically negative reports on his defense at all. And I am not going to put a whole ton of stock into a couple weeks of initial pro ball either.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Please don't make Courtney Hawkins #1.

 

Why? Because of his bad year? Out of all the players in the system, he still has the best chance to become a star player. Therefore, he is the #1 prospect in the system. Erik Johnson is good but he will be a #3 starter most likely at the ML level. Hawkins may fail. Hawkins also "could" become an All Star RF perennially. He stays at #1.

[NorthSideSox72]

Why? Because of his bad year? Out of all the players in the system, he still has the best chance to become a star player. Therefore, he is the #1 prospect in the system. Erik Johnson is good but he will be a #3 starter most likely at the ML level. Hawkins may fail. Hawkins also "could" become an All Star RF perennially. He stays at #1.

Prospect evaluation cannot be SOLELY about perceived ceiling. If you have a guy in AAA who looks like a very likely solid or above average major league starting player/pitcher, and a super-toolsy guy in A ball who is struggling, I don't think it is out of hand to think the former is more valuable than the latter. I do agree that Hawkins still has an argument to be #1, but it is not nearly as cut and dried as you are making it seem.

 

[caulfield12]

Prospect evaluation cannot be SOLELY about perceived ceiling. If you have a guy in AAA who looks like a very likely solid or above average major league starting player/pitcher, and a super-toolsy guy in A ball who is struggling, I don't think it is out of hand to think the former is more valuable than the latter. I do agree that Hawkins still has an argument to be #1, but it is not nearly as cut and dried as you are making it seem.

 

 

That's where rating Barnum and Walker will be difficult...Walker's playing at a level he's not quite ready for, he has some good tools (I like his balance at the plate, in particular), has been hitting better recently, but he's still in the 210's and striking out a lot and showing minimal HR power, which means he almost has to be a leadoff or #9 hitter in a major league line-up.

 

Barnum hasn't done much, he's been injured over and over again, but he has to be somewhere between 6-10 based on sheer potential alone.

 

Same with Zapata, if I was doing it.

 

Zapata's somewhere in the 8-12 range, arguably.

 

Finally, Beck and Snodgress are two more interesting guys where there are a boatload of differing opinions.

[southsider2k5]

That's where rating Barnum and Walker will be difficult...Walker's playing at a level he's not quite ready for, he has some good tools (I like his balance at the plate, in particular), has been hitting better recently, but he's still in the 210's and striking out a lot and showing minimal HR power, which means he almost has to be a leadoff or #9 hitter in a major league line-up.

 

Barnum hasn't done much, he's been injured over and over again, but he has to be somewhere between 6-10 based on sheer potential alone.

 

Same with Zapata, if I was doing it.

 

Zapata's somewhere in the 8-12 range, arguably.

 

Finally, Beck and Snodgress are two more interesting guys where there are a boatload of differing opinions.

 

Stritcly off of pure ceilings, I would rank Hawkins #1, and then Zapata would go no lower than after Hawk, Thompson, Anderson, and Johnson. I could see arguments for maybe Rienzo and Barnum being ahead of Zapata, but his ceiling is huge with that power.

[caulfield12]

Stritcly off of pure ceilings, I would rank Hawkins #1, and then Zapata would go no lower than after Hawk, Thompson, Anderson, and Johnson. I could see arguments for maybe Rienzo and Barnum being ahead of Zapata, but his ceiling is huge with that power.

 

Rienzo's going great now, but how long will it last?

 

If he does this for 6 more weeks, then it will be more impressive.

 

Same thing with Gordon Beckham, Phegley, etc.

[southsider2k5]

Rienzo's going great now, but how long will it last?

 

If he does this for 6 more weeks, then it will be more impressive.

 

Same thing with Gordon Beckham, Phegley, etc.

 

Rienzo seems to be a guy who takes a bit to adjust to a level.

[NorthSideSox72]

Barnum has home runs in each of the past three days, he seems to be warming up.

 

Zapata is a really tough call... hm, thread topic?

 

[southsider2k5]

Barnum has home runs in each of the past three days, he seems to be warming up.

 

Zapata is a really tough call... hm, thread topic?

 

Good idea. Love to hear other people's thoughts.

[oldsox]

I still say Hawkins should not be close to #1 ranking. That does not mean I am not pulling for him -- I am. But a #1 prospect should be a very good baseball player whereever he is playing. If he were at Kanny instead of W-S, would his numbers be as good as Micah Johnson's? I doubt it. He is struggling to hit .200 and strikes out over 50% of the time. Those facts should preclude him from that high of a ranking. He is not even close to Phegley. Do you think Hawkins could hit .316 in AAA? No. Is he as good a hitter as Ravelo or Johnson? No.

 

And as far as Zapata goes, can't we wait for him to play a few games somewhere? If he is just 16, that means he is 4 years removed from Little League.

 

Listing Hawkins as #1 reminds me of Joe Borchard. Almost everyone at ST thought he was #1 long after he showed be was not big league quality. If he repeats at High A next year and handles it, I'll be on his bandwagon, too. Not now.

[caulfield12]

Hawkins' offseason this year is going to be a huge. Everything he has learned this year has to be dealt with and he has to get comfortable with his mechanical changes going into '14.

 

 

Which mechanical changes are those you are referring to?

[caulfield12]

I still say Hawkins should not be close to #1 ranking. That does not mean I am not pulling for him -- I am. But a #1 prospect should be a very good baseball player whereever he is playing. If he were at Kanny instead of W-S, would his numbers be as good as Micah Johnson's? I doubt it. He is struggling to hit .200 and strikes out over 50% of the time. Those facts should preclude him from that high of a ranking. He is not even close to Phegley. Do you think Hawkins could hit .316 in AAA? No. Is he as good a hitter as Ravelo or Johnson? No.

 

And as far as Zapata goes, can't we wait for him to play a few games somewhere? If he is just 16, that means he is 4 years removed from Little League.

 

Listing Hawkins as #1 reminds me of Joe Borchard. Almost everyone at ST thought he was #1 long after he showed be was not big league quality. If he repeats at High A next year and handles it, I'll be on his bandwagon, too. Not now.

 

 

Except 16 in the Dominican is like 18 in the US, in terms of "Darwinian Theory" of the intense competition down there to get noticed, for agents/buscones to identify you as well as the MLB academies and scouting combine....I wouldn't describe him as being 4 years removed from LL because there's no such thing in the DR.

 

You're fighting for your survival the first moment you step onto a diamond....sink or swim.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I still say Hawkins should not be close to #1 ranking. That does not mean I am not pulling for him -- I am. But a #1 prospect should be a very good baseball player whereever he is playing. If he were at Kanny instead of W-S, would his numbers be as good as Micah Johnson's? I doubt it. He is struggling to hit .200 and strikes out over 50% of the time. Those facts should preclude him from that high of a ranking. He is not even close to Phegley. Do you think Hawkins could hit .316 in AAA? No. Is he as good a hitter as Ravelo or Johnson? No.

 

And as far as Zapata goes, can't we wait for him to play a few games somewhere? If he is just 16, that means he is 4 years removed from Little League.

 

Listing Hawkins as #1 reminds me of Joe Borchard. Almost everyone at ST thought he was #1 long after he showed be was not big league quality. If he repeats at High A next year and handles it, I'll be on his bandwagon, too. Not now.

 

 

Hawkins is 19 though still. Micah Johnson is 22 in A ball. Phegley is 25 now in the majors. It was expected that Hawkins will be in the majors around the age of 22. Going to his first All Star Game when he is Phegley's age. It's a bad comparison. Your concerns are valid though. Just because Hawkins at age 19 couldn't hit .316 in AAA does not mean he is a worse prospect than Phegley is.

[Jake]

I think that Trayce Thompson is the highest ceiling player in our system and, even if not, is the current "most likely to be a star" player.

[caulfield12]

I think that Trayce Thompson is the highest ceiling player in our system and, even if not, is the current "most likely to be a star" player.

 

 

It has to be between him and Hawkins.

 

Obviously, Courtney has the most pop in his bat of anyone in the system.

 

If you look at everything else, running/throwing/fielding....then Thompson has the edge or slight edge.

 

And nobody can really project what batting average each would put up in the majors at the end of 2014 or 2015/16 for Hawkins. Way too early to even try extrapolating Courtney because of two completely conflicting years, some at the same level.

 

Thompson does have more of a track record, and more "predictable" stat lines now...but there is still the idea floating around everything will just "click" one day and he'll make a huge step forward. Of course, I wouldn't say the odds of that happening are better than 50/50 at this point. Could go either way. I wouldn't with any amount of confidence at this point say he's going to be a breakout major league superstar.

 

 

[Jake]

From what we know today, we would believe that Trayce is faster and a better defender. There may be some argument about power potential, but I'll say it's a wash. I believe Hawkins would have the better throwing arm. It seems Trayce has the better hit/contact tool, but on draft day Courtney's was better than draft day Trayce's.

[danman31]

I still say Hawkins should not be close to #1 ranking. That does not mean I am not pulling for him -- I am. But a #1 prospect should be a very good baseball player whereever he is playing. If he were at Kanny instead of W-S, would his numbers be as good as Micah Johnson's? I doubt it. He is struggling to hit .200 and strikes out over 50% of the time. Those facts should preclude him from that high of a ranking. He is not even close to Phegley. Do you think Hawkins could hit .316 in AAA? No. Is he as good a hitter as Ravelo or Johnson? No.

You make a fair point, but your premise is unfair. You can flip it. Hawkins is 19. Would any of the players you mentioned be fairing any better in the Carolina League at 19? It's hard to imagine so.