Zapata and other DSL or pre-DSL prospects

[NorthSideSox72]

Here is a tough subject. The Sox have, for the first time in a long while, an international signing prospect who hasn't played an inning of pro ball yet, but could potentially be considered among the top prospects in the organization. Then there are last year's bonus babies, guys like Johan Cruz and Hanleth Otano, who are just getting going in the DSL.

 

Where does Zapata rank, in peoples' opinions? How about the others? Can you even evaluate Zapata well enough to consider him for a top prospects list? Based on what?

 

Poll attached, but the discussion should be fun.

 

[Balta1701]

Good poll.

 

I'm in the "Should be considered but too raw to make list" camp. You could probably find me the supremely talented, high-experienced 17 year old who I'd put on a list like this, probably a Bryce Harper type. But my usual rule with levels is to factor in a high bust rate for guys at lower levels...and he's not just at lower levels, he's below them. He's probably got half a decade before he's in the upper levels.

 

If people were calling him polished and saying he could make the big leagues by 20, then he'd be really high up on the list. Until then he's "far off potential".

[southsider2k5]

I think ranking prospects is a balance of how high of a ceiling they have, versus the level they are at, versus the reality of them reaching that ceiling. With Zapata, you are talking about potential Adam Dunn power. The Sox don't have a lot of guys in the system with that kind of ceiling. In terms of hitters that is only Hawkins, Barnum, and Thompson IMO. Because they are already achieving at higher levels, I can see them being ahead of Zapata. Throw in Anderson in a premium position and speed that rates as high as Zapata's power. Also add in a guy like Erik Johnson who is a 2/3 starter and only 1 level away from Chicago. Seeing Caulfield's answer from the other thread, I could also see Josh Phegley being in consideration to be ahead of Z because he is now in Chicago, and having put up big numbers at AAA.

 

For my two cents the rest of the system is so low ceilinged (not really a word, but OK) or so unlikely to achieve anything close to their ceiling that I don't see any other guys worth rating ahead of him.

 

Now that could change if Zapata doesn't do anything in the DSL or if other guys start to emerge, but I would put him in the 5 to 8 range, giving some demerits to Zapata for only being 16 while the others are older and more accomplished. In a year or two, you could make a pretty clear case for Micker being #1 or #2.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I think ranking prospects is a balance of how high of a ceiling they have, versus the level they are at, versus the reality of them reaching that ceiling. With Zapata, you are talking about potential Adam Dunn power. The Sox don't have a lot of guys in the system with that kind of ceiling. In terms of hitters that is only Hawkins, Barnum, and Thompson IMO. Because they are already achieving at higher levels, I can see them being ahead of Zapata. Throw in Anderson in a premium position and speed that rates as high as Zapata's power. Also add in a guy like Erik Johnson who is a 2/3 starter and only 1 level away from Chicago. Seeing Caulfield's answer from the other thread, I could also see Josh Phegley being in consideration to be ahead of Z because he is now in Chicago, and having put up big numbers at AAA.

 

For my two cents the rest of the system is so low ceilinged (not really a word, but OK) or so unlikely to achieve anything close to their ceiling that I don't see any other guys worth rating ahead of him.

 

Now that could change if Zapata doesn't do anything in the DSL or if other guys start to emerge, but I would put him in the 5 to 8 range, giving some demerits to Zapata for only being 16 while the others are older and more accomplished. In a year or two, you could make a pretty clear case for Micker being #1 or #2.

Have to be careful with DSL numbers - historically, they don't end up meaning much, or telling us much. The lower level in the minors, the less meaningful the stats, and in the DSL they hold very little meaning. Not none, but very little.

 

[Ross]

I'm the only one who voted "Among top 5 in org" so far, a little surprisingly. I probably should have answered in the 5-10 range, but from reading around, it sounds like he is one of the very few prospects in our system who has big-time potential, so that has to mean something. Also, Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus, their lead scout, has convinced me he should be considered a top prospect in our system after what he tweeted earlier this month and with what he said today too.

[danman31]

It's funny. This poll is playing out just like our behind closed doors discussion about whether to include him on the FS list. In other words, we know about as much about how to handle him as we actually do about him.

[Eminor3rd]

I think he's gotta be 10-20 until we can at least see SOMETHING from him. I'd typically like to leave him off altogether except that he's a showcase guy that a ton of media guys saw and they've universally been impressed.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Chances zapata ever plays MLB seem very slim. I would not have him in the top 15.

[ShandyMan]

I'd put Zapata around 10. No way he is in front of people such as Thompson, Johnson, Sanchez, and Hawkins ( ) who have played in the USA and have succeeded.

 

With some success and development, he easily jumps up the list.

[Jake]

The interesting thing is how few people are using the players that should be ahead or behind him as a case for his ranking.

[southsider2k5]

The interesting thing is how few people are using the players that should be ahead or behind him as a case for his ranking.

 

That is totally my rationale right now. Take a Carlos Sanchez for a example. Best case scenario for him is Jeff Keppinger. When you have a guy with a potential 70 power number, how can you not rank him ahead of a Sanchez, even if Sanchez is closer to the majors.

[fathom]

That is totally my rationale right now. Take a Carlos Sanchez for a example. Best case scenario for him is Jeff Keppinger. When you have a guy with a potential 70 power number, how can you not rank him ahead of a Sanchez, even if Sanchez is closer to the majors.

 

Yep, it's similar to why relief pitchers are never highly rated prospects.

[Chicago White Sox]

That is totally my rationale right now. Take a Carlos Sanchez for a example. Best case scenario for him is Jeff Keppinger. When you have a guy with a potential 70 power number, how can you not rank him ahead of a Sanchez, even if Sanchez is closer to the majors.

I'm not sure that's a great comp for Sanchez, but I agree with you for the most part. I think Zapata has to be somewhere in the 10-15 range bare minimum.

[southsider2k5]

I'm not sure that's a great comp for Sanchez, but I agree with you for the most part. I think Zapata has to be somewhere in the 10-15 range bare minimum.

 

Yeah, its not perfect, but a higher average, no power, utility IF/borderline starter is Sanchez's ceiling.

[2nd_city_saint787]

What's the latest on Luis Castillo?? I recall some people calling him a top 15 prospect last year when we signed him....Is he competing somewhere?

 

I believe I was one of those people calling Castillo a top 15 prospect so I would no doubt have the more hyped (Z is the #2 international prospect this year, Castillo didn't bust the top 20). I voted for 5-10.

[harfman77]

If you consider placing players from the draft directly into the prospect list, than you must also consider doing the same with international prospects. You either include both or exclude both. I am not sure that the competition that Zapata faced is not better that what Anderson faced at his JC. As far as ranking tools, Zapata comps very favorably (according to scouting reports) to Hawkins. Both are big and athletic, have the ability to play all three OF positions, and their best tool is their power. I think he should probably be in the 5-10 range based on his ceiling. He is one of very few potential impact bats in the farm system. And who knows, he may be good enough that he will be in Chicago in three years.

[Jake]

I think we've all gotten a little too sour on Sanchez. I would counter that utility man is his floor, not his ceiling. He's not going to hit like Jeter, but it's not impossible for him to grow into an .800 OPS player. This is why it's called "ceiling." If I had to place bets right now, I would guess that he becomes an 85-100 wRC+ bat with 1-2 wins on defense/baserunning.

[southsider2k5]

I think we've all gotten a little too sour on Sanchez. I would counter that utility man is his floor, not his ceiling. He's not going to hit like Jeter, but it's not impossible for him to grow into an .800 OPS player. This is why it's called "ceiling." If I had to place bets right now, I would guess that he becomes an 85-100 wRC+ bat with 1-2 wins on defense/baserunning.

 

You are seeing his floor right now. No power, no position, low average, not even a serious consideration for Chicago.

[harfman77]

You are seeing his floor right now. No power, no position, low average, not even a serious consideration for Chicago.

 

If you think he is a finished product, this is his floor. Though at 20, he likely still has some development ahead of him. One big issue that I have is how the Sox rush their hitting prospects along. Hawkins should still be in low A, Sanchez should have started the year in AA and just have moved up at the AA All-Star break. You can argue that Thompson, Mitchell, and Walker were all promoted aggressively as well. Let the kids get to the point where they are dominating a level before pushing them up, cause it sure doesn't get any easier.

 

I live in Cedar Rapids, the Angels had Trout here for the first half of the season the year after he was drafted, and now the Twins just did the same with Buxton. Not that we have anybody on that level, but if those guys are moving at that pace, we surely should not be moving guys up faster than that with a worse track record of success.

[southsider2k5]

If you think he is a finished product, this is his floor. Though at 20, he likely still has some development ahead of him. One big issue that I have is how the Sox rush their hitting prospects along. Hawkins should still be in low A, Sanchez should have started the year in AA and just have moved up at the AA All-Star break. You can argue that Thompson, Mitchell, and Walker were all promoted aggressively as well. Let the kids get to the point where they are dominating a level before pushing them up, cause it sure doesn't get any easier.

 

I live in Cedar Rapids, the Angels had Trout here for the first half of the season the year after he was drafted, and now the Twins just did the same with Buxton. Not that we have anybody on that level, but if those guys are moving at that pace, we surely should not be moving guys up faster than that with a worse track record of success.

 

He probably has some development ahead of him, he is almost 400 ABs into AAA. The kid has shown zero power at any level of the minors. He has also had trouble finding a set position. I think even as a best of, he probably isn't going to go much past a .700 OPS type of guy. Even his doubles totals are really low.

[NorthSideSox72]

Sanchez is 20 in AAA. Going into Opening Day this year, he was THE YOUNGEST player in AAA. That isn't some small piece of information, that is huge.

 

He's not a full season into AAA yet, at that age. He's still the best MI prospect in the system outside of Tim Anderson, and I still feel he's got a good shot at being a starter eventually. It just isn't going to be this year, and probably not next.

 

[Jake]

Right - when he's blazed through the minors at age 20 and lower, it's very bold to say that we've seen his best already. His potential must include the possibility that he continues to grow into his body and hit the ball a little harder. Obviously, we think that even without much change in his athleticism that he will at least begin to bat for average in the next year or so at AAA. I also don't see a reason to think that he is without a position. Reviews are positive on his defense at SS and 2B. The only reason he has changed positions at all is because of perceived organizational need. Since we no longer have dire need at the MLB level, we're letting our best prospects play their natural positions; in his case, shortstop.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Sanchez is 20 in AAA. Going into Opening Day this year, he was THE YOUNGEST player in AAA. That isn't some small piece of information, that is huge.

 

He's not a full season into AAA yet, at that age. He's still the best MI prospect in the system outside of Tim Anderson, and I still feel he's got a good shot at being a starter eventually. It just isn't going to be this year, and probably not next.

 

Exactly. I feel like people are completely ignoring this fact. So what if he spends the next TWO years in AAA before he is ready for the major leagues? He'll be just 22/23. He may never develop into anything but he is so young at AAA that some of the recent sentiment about him is really misguided.

[Jake]

We've gone through the same thing with Gordon. It isn't always readily apparent whether Gordon is/was a bad player because he had so many at-bats of unsuccessful play or if he was simply too young for the level that was giving him trouble.

[southsider2k5]

Even so, Gordon showed at least gap to gap power, even when he was overmatched at times. Sanchez has shown none of that. He still hasn't found a defensive position either. Tim Anderson at least has plus plus speed to make up for his power numbers, Sanchez doesn't have that either. At best, Sanchez could be a .300ish hitter, with zero power, ala Jeff Keppinger.