FS Midseason Top 25 Prospects

[NorthSideSox72]

Here is the 11-25 portion of the list.

 

On Friday we'll publish the Top 10, full list and a list of players who just missed.

 

The five contributing voters were Balta1701, danman31, Jake, NorthsideSideSox72 and witesoxfan.

 

Discuss...

 

 

EDIT TO ADD LINK TO FULL LIST: HERE IT IS

[Dunt]

I think Ravelo should be higher and Micah Johnson should probably be in the top 10, but otherwise I think the list is pretty solid

[Chicago White Sox]

So the top 10 is the following in some order:

 

Erik Johnson

Courtney Hawkins

Trayce Thompson

Tim Anderson

Carlos Sanchez

Josh Phegley

Keon Barnum

Chris Beck

Daniel Webb

Tyler Danish

[NorthSideSox72]

I think Ravelo should be higher and Micah Johnson should probably be in the top 10, but otherwise I think the list is pretty solid

 

Ravelo's move from 3B to 1B wiped out some of his prospect value. The fact that he's still T25 is because he is hitting so well, and starting to show hints of power. He's also still somewhat young. But as a 1B, he'll need to actually show that power for some extended period for him to get a lot higher on the list.

 

Johnson looks awfully good, but it is hard to justify him being a lot higher than #12 just yet. Let's see how he does in A+.

 

[southsider2k5]

Looking good so far. There are a couple of the low to no ceiling guys I feel might be too high, but that's a solid list.

[NorthSideSox72]

Looking good so far. There are a couple of the low to no ceiling guys I feel might be too high, but that's a solid list.

Which ones?

 

[caulfield12]

So the top 10 is the following in some order:

 

Erik Johnson

Courtney Hawkins

Trayce Thompson

Tim Anderson

Carlos Sanchez

Josh Phegley

Keon Barnum

Chris Beck

Daniel Webb

Tyler Danish

 

 

That means Micker Zapata's in the Top 10 as well.

 

Don't like seeing two relievers in the top group, but hopefully Danish can remain as a starter...although short relief would be the fastest route to the big leagues, it wouldn't help him develop his full repertoire of pitches.

 

And we can assume Jared Mitchell is completely out of the Top 25. Not sure I agree with that, either.

[Dunt]

That means Micker Zapata's in the Top 10 as well.

 

Don't like seeing two relievers in the top group, but hopefully Danish can remain as a starter...although short relief would be the fastest route to the big leagues, it wouldn't help him develop his full repertoire of pitches.

 

And we can assume Jared Mitchell is completely out of the Top 25. Not sure I agree with that, either.

 

Article said Zapata isn't ranked

[caulfield12]

Article said Zapata isn't ranked

 

 

Then I doubly-disagree. Our system is so horrid right now, he has to be in the Top 25, based on sheer talent, potential, age and his signing bonus, along with all the plaudits from Bell, Hahn and Paddy.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Read the blurb it is hard to disagree

[southsider2k5]

Then I doubly-disagree. Our system is so horrid right now, he has to be in the Top 25, based on sheer talent, potential, age and his signing bonus, along with all the plaudits from Bell, Hahn and Paddy.

 

The decision was made because to exclude him because there really isn't a universal standard that makes sense with which to evaluate Zapata versus any of the other players. Different people viewed it vastly differently, and it just made sense to give it a year or two until he hits the states.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Read the blurb it is hard to disagree

 

Not really.

 

It's quite easy to disagree and fairly ridiculous to rank some of players who were ranked ahead of him. Give me the young kid with superstar potential but with the most risk of failure over the mid-20 year old reliever with a low ceiling any day.

 

And I just think it's silly to be so aggressive with HS kids on these lists who have zero pro experience but a kid who's 18 months younger shouldn't even be considered.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

The decision was made because to exclude him because there really isn't a universal standard that makes sense with which to evaluate Zapata versus any of the other players. Different people viewed it vastly differently, and it just made sense to give it a year or two until he hits the states.

 

Weren't players such as Viciedo, Silverio, Olacio (and possibly others) ranked before coming over to the states?

 

To me, the only difference here is Zapata is more highly regarded, which makes the decision make less sense to me.

Edited July 10, 2013 by ChiSox_Sonix

[Buehrle>Wood]

Not really.

 

It's quite easy to disagree and fairly ridiculous to rank some of players who were ranked ahead of him. Give me the young kid with superstar potential but with the most risk of failure over the mid-20 year old reliever with a low ceiling any day.

 

And I just think it's silly to be so aggressive with HS kids on these lists who have zero pro experience but a kid who's 18 months younger shouldn't even be considered.

Did you even read the blurb? He wasn't up for consideration and it wasnt for lack of talent.

[caulfield12]

I know one thing, if we'd spent the money the Cubs have on their big 3 international signings (including the Taiwanese pitcher now), everyone here would be going absolutely nuts with joy and surprise.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Did you even read the blurb? He wasn't up for consideration and it wasnt for lack of talent.

 

Yes.

[southsider2k5]

Weren't players such as Viciedo, Silverio, Olacio (and possibly others) ranked before coming over to the states?

 

To me, the only difference here is Zapata is more highly regarded, which makes the decision make less sense to me.

 

Viciedo went straight into our minor league system.

 

I don't know that we were doing these rankings before Silverio got to our minor league system.

 

Olacio wasn't rated until he got to Bristol.

 

Personally, I would put Zapata right around #5 or #6. But I also get the idea that because of his situation, he is really, really hard to rate. I can't think of anyone else who was rated before they at least played some sort of US minor league ball.

[witesoxfan]

Weren't players such as Viciedo, Silverio, Olacio (and possibly others) ranked before coming over to the states?

 

To me, the only difference here is Zapata is more highly regarded, which makes the decision make less sense to me.

 

Johan Cruz is a very highly thought of shortstop prospect who signed for $450k last year. Through his first 33 games and 136 plate appearances, his splits are .105/.172/.121/.293 and he also has 12 errors in 77 attempts. Yes, that is a .293 OPS and a .912 fielding percentage.

 

There have been plenty of others who have signed for $1.5+ million throughout the majors who have so called superstar potential who put up low .700 OPS's before eventually being tried at pitcher or released.

 

When we have no track record and nothing to base our beliefs on but hearsay, it's best to reserve judgment. Some had him ranked in the top 10, others in the top 25, and some didn't have him ranked at all.

[caulfield12]

Did you even read the blurb? He wasn't up for consideration and it wasnt for lack of talent.

 

 

But the counterpoint is guys who are coming out of high school....or even a Mississippi junior college, it's not like that is much of a track record to go on, either.

 

MLB and the scouting combine had 1-30 ranks on those kids and almost all of the signings except for a couple have slotted pretty nicely in companion.

 

So, once again, I'll respectfully disagree and say that he HAS to be somewhere 11-25, if they're unwilling to rank him Top 10, I get that part, fine.

[caulfield12]

Johan Cruz is a very highly thought of shortstop prospect who signed for $450k last year. Through his first 33 games and 136 plate appearances, his splits are .105/.172/.121/.293 and he also has 12 errors in 77 attempts. Yes, that is a .293 OPS and a .912 fielding percentage.

 

There have been plenty of others who have signed for $1.5+ million throughout the majors who have so called superstar potential who put up low .700 OPS's before eventually being tried at pitcher or released.

 

When we have no track record and nothing to base our beliefs on but hearsay, it's best to reserve judgment. Some had him ranked in the top 10, others in the top 25, and some didn't have him ranked at all.

 

 

SS prospects aren't expected to put up huge offensive numbers anymore.

 

And errors don't mean a thing unless you're watching him every single day and assessing the reasons for those errors.

[southsider2k5]

But the counterpoint is guys who are coming out of high school....or even a Mississippi junior college, it's not like that is much of a track record to go on, either.

 

MLB and the scouting combine had 1-30 ranks on those kids and almost all of the signings except for a couple have slotted pretty nicely in companion.

 

So, once again, I'll respectfully disagree and say that he HAS to be somewhere 11-25, if they're unwilling to rank him Top 10, I get that part, fine.

 

Zapata hasn't even played in the DSL yet. There is literally no measuring stick that can be used for him, except "potential".

[caulfield12]

Zapata hasn't even played in the DSL yet. There is literally no measuring stick that can be used for him, except "potential".

 

 

What was the previous measuring stick for Keon Barnum, Tyler Danish, Zewski, etc.?

 

They were high school players, and you can look at where they were drafted, and scouting reports and radar gun readings, but that's far from conclusive.

 

Is Tyler a sure fire major leaguer because he set some Florida high school IP without a run scored suprecord?

 

 

I'll give you an example. When I worked for the Pirates, they drafted a kid named Shon Walker out of KY (I think in 2nd round or supplemental) and he was super hyped because he set the all-time national home run record at the time. But high school results are so hard to assess...and Shon didn't even come close to making a big league impact.

 

And I'm sure you would find that with a lot of the high school kids drafted very high, vs. collegiate players.

[witesoxfan]

In the one instance, we have numbers, video, a multitude of scouting reports of those who have seen him practice and play live games.

 

In the other, we have REPORTS from people WHO HAVE TALKED TO SCOUTS who have seen Zapata in batting practice.

 

Which of those is more reputable to you?

[NorthSideSox72]

On Zapata... we had a discussion about this, among the FS writers and people who helped with the list. And just as here, there were a wide variety of views, ranging from him being Top 10, to considered-but-doesn't-make-list, to shouldn't-be considered. I think it is a great discussion to have, with valid reasons for all the above, which is why I opened a seperate thread for just that.

 

What it comes down to is...

 

1. There is in fact a difference between a high school kid who has played in the states and been seen by a lot of scouts, versus a 16 year old who has only had a few people see him at a combine and has no competition to play against.

 

2. The data on Zapata is entirely based on combine-viewed physical tools and some BP work. That is very little to go on.

 

3. There is a WORLD of difference between a 16 year old and an 18 year old in terms of physical and mental development, and going down to 16 then projecting upwards to adulthood is very, very sketchy. Guesswork is present in all of this, but in the case of someone this young, it is borderline drawing straws.

 

So, we decided as a group to not include him. If we had included him, he'd have probably been in the teens or twenties on the list, but with ratings all over the board.

 

[BigEdWalsh]

Great list and interesting reading. It's really sad to me how Jared Mitchell has fallen. And I totally agree with the thinking to not include Zapata, though of course we and I'm sure the whole White Sox organization is very excited about him.