FS Midseason Top 25 Prospects

[Ozzie Ball]

I would guess he'd be down to 50-60 successful steals in a full season at W-S.

 

And a success rate of about 60-70%.

That's a safe estimate for stolen base totals, but that would be a very low SB success rate. Currently his success rate is around 75%. 60 steals at a 60% success rate would give an estimated run value of -6. Research into this topic has shown that a 67% success rate is required just to break even in terms of run value.

 

Based on what you have seen, would you say Johnson has a good or bad base stealing technique? And how much room for improvement do you see, if any?

 

These speed measures are subjective anyway. Yes, home-first and other base-base times can be documented, but in small sample sizes, and when dealing in hundredths or even tenths of seconds, dudes with stopwatches are only so accurate.

Most of these prospect bloggers/amateur scouts take this sort of data from video recordings rather stopwatch-in-hand at the stadium. In this case the timings should be very accurate, even to hundredths of a second. Given the amount of video clips included in his posts, I'd guess this is the method the author used.

 

That said I agree that debating whether a guy has 60 or 70 speed is a fairly pointless exercise. I was just a little surprised by some of the comments on here as they didn't match what I was reading elsewhere.

[NorthSideSox72]

The full list is now up on FS for your reading enjoyment.

 

Let's keep the discussion going!

 

By the way, as some of you know, the list is done with a voting system (and discussion) involving a handful for people on FutureSox and SoxTalk. The contributors this year were:

 

danman31

witesoxfan

Balta1701

Jake

and me

 

There is a lot of discussion and work put into this list, and everyone involved deserve some big credit for their contributions.

 

[caulfield12]

That's a safe estimate for stolen base totals, but that would be a very low SB success rate. Currently his success rate is around 75%. 60 steals at a 60% success rate would give an estimated run value of -6. Research into this topic has shown that a 67% success rate is required just to break even in terms of run value.

 

Based on what you have seen, would you say Johnson has a good or bad base stealing technique? And how much room for improvement do you see, if any?

 

 

Most of these prospect bloggers/amateur scouts take this sort of data from video recordings rather stopwatch-in-hand at the stadium. In this case the timings should be very accurate, even to hundredths of a second. Given the amount of video clips included in his posts, I'd guess this is the method the author used.

 

That said I agree that debating whether a guy has 60 or 70 speed is a fairly pointless exercise. I was just a little surprised by some of the comments on here as they didn't match what I was reading elsewhere.

 

Technique will work in the lower minors, but his lack of pure speed will catch up to him in AA and above.

 

Catchers there have bigger arms, and pitchers are starting to concentrate more on pick-off moves and shortening their strides and times to the plate with runners on base as they inch closer to the majors.

 

As is being mentioned quite often, the Billy Hamilton comparison is not doing him any favors, as he's a completely different type of player than Hamilton.

 

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Technique will work in the lower minors, but his lack of pure speed will catch up to him in AA and above.

 

Catchers there have bigger arms, and pitchers are starting to concentrate more on pick-off moves and shortening their strides and times to the plate with runners on base as they inch closer to the majors.

 

As is being mentioned quite often, the Billy Hamilton comparison is not doing him any favors, as he's a completely different type of player than Hamilton.

 

I think Tim Anderson is way too high. I'd still have Hawkins and Thompson ahead of him. Other than that I'd agree with most of the top 10.

[caulfield12]

I think Tim Anderson is way too high. I'd still have Hawkins and Thompson ahead of him. Other than that I'd agree with most of the top 10.

 

 

That's where you get into the whole proximity to the majors/passed Kanny/W-S vs. potential argument.

 

One of the concerns about Anderson, like Micah Johnson, will have to be whether they can stick at their respective positions. That concern doesn't exist about Trayce.

 

Thompson has both the power and defensive game to fit well at USCF, and those are two critical areas (especially power) where he has tools.

 

For now, Anderson is more of a line-drive/contact hitter, which you definitely need some of them throughout your line-up. And I'm guessing Anderson will always hit for a higher average than Trayce. Hopefully he can be a 25-30-35 stolen base guy and fit in the #1 or #9 spot in the line-up.

 

Of course, we've said the same thing about Mitchell and Walker (fitting as potential lead-off hitters).

Edited July 12, 2013 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

I think Tim Anderson is way too high. I'd still have Hawkins and Thompson ahead of him. Other than that I'd agree with most of the top 10.

I personally had him at 4, and we actually had a statistical tie between Anderson and Thompson for 2nd that we had to hash out via discussion.

 

[SoxAce]

I usually disagree with you guys top 10 list every year (although Ozzie Ball and Dan have usually thought similar to myself over the years as well as Cerb.. minus Chris Young who I was not a fan of at the time.. ) but I must say this is a great list boys. No arguments here. Only beef I got is Braulio Ortiz not in the top 25, but don't worry.. he'll be there next season for sure. Great arm. I was high on Webb before most (hell I've picked him as a sleeper candidate since last year), but I'm shocked how much noticed he's got a years time now, though I will admit always thought it would be as a starter.

Edited July 12, 2013 by SoxAce

[NorthSideSox72]

I usually disagree with you guys top 10 list every year (although Ozzie Ball and Dan have usually thought similar to myself over the years as well as Cerb.. minus Chris Young who I was not a fan of at the time.. ) but I must say this is a great list boys. No arguments here. Only beef I got is Braulio Ortiz not in the top 25, but don't worry.. he'll be there next season for sure. Great arm. I was high on Webb before most (hell I've picked him as a sleeper candidate since last year), but I'm shocked how much noticed he's got a years time now, though I will admit always thought it would be as a starter.

Braulio is a guy to watch for sure. I had him at 25.

 

Webb was on FS's "Next Wave" article in the offseason, where we looked at the "next" 25 or so guys in the system, some of whom were breakout candidates, Webb included.

 

[Balta1701]

Braulio is a guy to watch for sure. I had him at 25.

 

Webb was on FS's "Next Wave" article in the offseason, where we looked at the "next" 25 or so guys in the system, some of whom were breakout candidates, Webb included.

Ortiz hit 32 for me, but I'm the guy who kept the guys stuck on the bottom of my list who I think some franchise might say "screw it we'll give him a shot and see what happens" like Mitchell and Saladino. That bumped him down just a tad. He'll probably leap-frog them with a decent finish to the year.

[witesoxfan]

I think Ortiz is right on the edge on a lot of our lists. I had him at 26, and overall I'd say his ranking is probably in the top 30.

 

He keeps putting up numbers, he'll move on up.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I do think Anderson is too high, but it could also be result of we don't have a clear cut number 2. I wouldn't put Hawkins any higher than Thompson and Anderson until he show signs of figuring things out. Thompson looked like he would be a favorite for number 2 until he recently 0-31 embarrassment. Anderson isn't ideal either as his defense is very iffy so far.

 

[witesoxfan]

Erik Johnson is definitely the clear cut #1 prospect in the system, but the rest of the top 5 is a bit convoluted after that. Top of the system has an incredible deal of talent, which is different than in years' past, but a lot of it has struggled badly. As was mentioned, Thompson and Anderson were tied at #2, and we decided to go with Anderson.

[southsider2k5]

I think Tim Anderson is way too high. I'd still have Hawkins and Thompson ahead of him. Other than that I'd agree with most of the top 10.

 

I fully agree with you. Hawkins is still my #1, with Johnson at #2.

[danman31]

I had Anderson 2 and Thompson at 3 personally. One of the big problems is that all the 2-4 guys are sliding performance wise. Thompson is in a scary slump and Hawkins we've beaten to death here. Look at Anderson's stats now and tell me he's not Keenyn Walker 2. It definitely reminds me of how Walker performed in Kannapolis in the first half last year before getting promoted. Decent/good average, good walk rate, awful K rate, no power. That's at least a little concerning, but the walk rate gives hope for improvement.

[southsider2k5]

I had Anderson 2 and Thompson at 3 personally. One of the big problems is that all the 2-4 guys are sliding performance wise. Thompson is in a scary slump and Hawkins we've beaten to death here. Look at Anderson's stats now and tell me he's not Keenyn Walker 2. It definitely reminds me of how Walker performed in Kannapolis in the first half last year before getting promoted. Decent/good average, good walk rate, awful K rate, no power. That's at least a little concerning, but the walk rate gives hope for improvement.

 

That would be why I would have Anderson after everyone like Hawkins and Thompson. Anderson has the plus speed, defense, and a decent hit tool from the sounds of it. But he doesn't have any power to push him up to the next tier of guys.

[Eminor3rd]

I think Hawkins is still number 2. That's too aggressive on Anderson for my tastes. Nice list though.

[NorthSideSox72]

I had Anderson 2 and Thompson at 3 personally. One of the big problems is that all the 2-4 guys are sliding performance wise. Thompson is in a scary slump and Hawkins we've beaten to death here. Look at Anderson's stats now and tell me he's not Keenyn Walker 2. It definitely reminds me of how Walker performed in Kannapolis in the first half last year before getting promoted. Decent/good average, good walk rate, awful K rate, no power. That's at least a little concerning, but the walk rate gives hope for improvement.

 

 

That would be why I would have Anderson after everyone like Hawkins and Thompson. Anderson has the plus speed, defense, and a decent hit tool from the sounds of it. But he doesn't have any power to push him up to the next tier of guys.

 

Anderson did show a little power in JuCo, so I wouldn't dismiss him developing that as time goes on.

 

[caulfield12]

Anderson did show a little power in JuCo, so I wouldn't dismiss him developing that as time goes on.

 

 

What were Brandon Phillips' power numbers in the minors?

 

It seems it took him almost 10 years to go from a singles/doubles/triples hitter and stolen base threat to more of a middle of the order hitter.

[danman31]

Anderson did show a little power in JuCo, so I wouldn't dismiss him developing that as time goes on.

That was my thinking, but his recent Kanny stats are scaring me. I hate to be so reactionary, but I'd probably slot him down to 3 if I had it over. Honestly, I think Hawkins at 4 is too high and that's where I put him. It's hard to like a lot about the guys at 2-4.

[NorthSideSox72]

That was my thinking, but his recent Kanny stats are scaring me. I hate to be so reactionary, but I'd probably slot him down to 3 if I had it over. Honestly, I think Hawkins at 4 is too high and that's where I put him. It's hard to like a lot about the guys at 2-4.

I think it is far too early to worry about his lack of power. However, seeing video of him, I do have some concern about his bat speed. Small sample size though, and bat speed while watching a video is iffy at best.

 

As we discussed while making the list, there is Erik... then there are three high-talent guys with a high bust potential... then the 5-15-ish slots are pretty weak compared to previous years. But the bottom of the list, and the guys just off the list, appear stronger than some previous ones. Better depth, fewer near-ready starting contributors.

 

[southsider2k5]

What were Brandon Phillips' power numbers in the minors?

 

It seems it took him almost 10 years to go from a singles/doubles/triples hitter and stolen base threat to more of a middle of the order hitter.

 

You can't rank a guy because someone else took 10 years to develop a tool

[Jake]

I am clearly more optimistic on Anderson than most. I think I'm slightly more pessimistic on Erik Johnson.

[danman31]

You can't rank a guy because someone else took 10 years to develop a tool

True and he's wrong about Phillips anyway. He hit 11 HR in the SAL as a 19-year-old.

[caulfield12]

True and he's wrong about Phillips anyway. He hit 11 HR in the SAL as a 19-year-old.

 

 

 

I wasn't trying to be right or wrong. I honestly had no idea....I just remember when the Indians acquired him he was known more for his speed than his power, although he had some of both.

 

The reason I brought him up was the constant comparisons on draft day between him and Anderson.

[witesoxfan]

Looking back, if I could do it over, I'd rate Phegley #2. I'm buying into his success over half a season because he's finally been healthy for more than a year now and able to really go at it, but, at least in the early going, it's carried up to the majors. It's just hard to project what he can actually do, because, given his history, even including all that's gone on, it's hard to project his min/mean/max and what he can actually bring to the table.

 

Honestly, considering his numbers this year and the way he's swung the bat at the majors, I don't think maxing out at .280/.350/.500 is unreasonable, nor do I think .230/.300/.400 is unreasonable. We just don't know.

 

That, and the fact that he's a bit older, (I think) pushed him down this list.