FS Midseason Top 25 Prospects

[thxfrthmmrs]

I have no problem with Zapata not being ranked for uncertainty. Like I said before, he can be the top prospect for us after his first season, or sitting outside of Top 20.

 

If you look at the Top 25 list, Zapata would have been the most raw prospect on that list, even more so than Danish and Zewski. At least the latter are more than capable of playing for Bristol, while Zapata is at least a year or two away from reaching that level.

 

But I do think Zewski is ranked a bit too high at this point. I am not sure if his hot first 5 games bumped up his ranking a little bit.

[caulfield12]

On Zapata... we had a discussion about this, among the FS writers and people who helped with the list. And just as here, there were a wide variety of views, ranging from him being Top 10, to considered-but-doesn't-make-list, to shouldn't-be considered. I think it is a great discussion to have, with valid reasons for all the above, which is why I opened a seperate thread for just that.

 

What it comes down to is...

 

1. There is in fact a difference between a high school kid who has played in the states and been seen by a lot of scouts, versus a 16 year old who has only had a few people see him at a combine and has no competition to play against.

 

2. The data on Zapata is entirely based on combine-viewed physical tools and some BP work. That is very little to go on.

 

3. There is a WORLD of difference between a 16 year old and an 18 year old in terms of physical and mental development, and going down to 16 then projecting upwards to adulthood is very, very sketchy. Guesswork is present in all of this, but in the case of someone this young, it is borderline drawing straws.

 

So, we decided as a group to not include him. If we had included him, he'd have probably been in the teens or twenties on the list, but with ratings all over the board.

 

 

In the elite Dominican training academies, I would argue the maturity level, sheer amount of playing time, competition level, stress/pressure/anxiety to impress....is much higher than an 18 year old in Jenks, OK and Courtney Hawkins' hometown is ever going to experience.

 

It's one reason why kids from there can sign at 16, as opposed to American high school players at age 18.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

But I do think Zewski is ranked a bit too high at this point. I am not sure if his hot first 5 games bumped up his ranking a little bit.

Not at all, just as his more recent slump doesn't bring it down. No effect so far from his play, at least for me, other than maybe just to confirm he isn't completely out of his league.

 

[caulfield12]

Not at all, just as his more recent slump doesn't bring it down. No effect so far from his play, at least for me, other than maybe just to confirm he isn't completely out of his league.

 

 

And could it possibly be the fact we have ZERO other legit 3B prospects, the tallest midget thing again, like Sanchez or the year before Nestor Molina being considered top prospects.

[southsider2k5]

In the one instance, we have numbers, video, a multitude of scouting reports of those who have seen him practice and play live games.

 

In the other, we have REPORTS from people WHO HAVE TALKED TO SCOUTS who have seen Zapata in batting practice.

 

Which of those is more reputable to you?

 

It comes down to live games versus not live games. There is a big difference between the two.

[caulfield12]

It comes down to live games versus not live games. There is a big difference between the two.

 

 

If I go to the Dominican and personally scout him for a month in the DSL, then can he be on the list, lol?

[Balta1701]

If I go to the Dominican and personally scout him for a month in the DSL, then can he be on the list, lol?

Will you bring a U.S. high school baseball league with you to provide competition?

[southsider2k5]

Will you bring a U.S. high school baseball league with you to provide competition?

 

Winner.

[caulfield12]

Winner.

 

 

The Dominicans would come to the US and kick their butts, unless it was in CA, TX or Florida.

[Balta1701]

The Dominicans would come to the US and kick their butts, unless it was in CA, TX or Florida.

Obviously you'd have to pick from a comparable league silly.

[southsider2k5]

The Dominicans would come to the US and kick their butts, unless it was in CA, TX or Florida.

 

And I am sure an American all-star team would hold their own as well. But what you are saying still lacks game context.

[caulfield12]

And I am sure an American all-star team would hold their own as well. But what you are saying still lacks game context.

 

 

Little League World Series, lol?

[Jake]

We all know what the standard is in high school baseball, though the hay is really made in club ball. We see these kids at events like Area Code Games and elite club tournaments where they often match up against other draft talent. Even when not, scouts know how good a given American player's competition is. Look at Tim Anderson, who may be a high-high-first round talent but there was too much uncertainty about his competition to know for sure. Now imagine a 16-year-old who has only played against a bunch of exploited kids in a country where there are many fewer scouts and eyeballs in a bunch of simulated games.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

I understand the reasoning, I just don't agree with it. I get that he has no stats to ooh and ahh over but there are people who have seen him. People who do this for a living and he was very highly regarded by many of them. Obviously, kids like him have an enormously high bust rate and likelihood of making the majors should be taken into account. However, pure potential, should also matter. Michael Ynoa, Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez and Jurickson Profar were all ranked by BA in their respective organizations top prospects (3, 4, 7, 5) just months after their signings and without playing any games in any league yet as well (and all were several months younger than Zapata). If the people doing the ranking wanted to leave him out of their ranks that's fine, but if enough people included him and as a result he fell in the top 25, it should have been taken into account IMO. I mean, if we were trying to make a trade with another team and they had a choice between Zapata and Santos Rodriguez, it's fairly safe to assume what player they would choose to take.

Edited July 10, 2013 by ChiSox_Sonix

[caulfield12]

We all know what the standard is in high school baseball, though the hay is really made in club ball. We see these kids at events like Area Code Games and elite club tournaments where they often match up against other draft talent. Even when not, scouts know how good a given American player's competition is. Look at Tim Anderson, who may be a high-high-first round talent but there was too much uncertainty about his competition to know for sure. Now imagine a 16-year-old who has only played against a bunch of exploited kids in a country where there are many fewer scouts and eyeballs in a bunch of simulated games.

 

 

Disagree wholeheartedly....there's a reason why players like Albert Pujols, Logan Morrison, etc., weren't noticed playing JC ball in KC, or why Mark Buehrle slipped out of the entire draft almost.

 

If anything, there are too many buscones and too many eyes on them, but don't kid yourself....there are a plethora of scouts there and in Venezuela.

Edited July 10, 2013 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

I understand the reasoning, I just don't agree with it. I get that he has no stats to ooh and ahh over but there are people who have seen him. People who do this for a living and he was very highly regarded by many of them. Obviously, kids like him have an enormously high bust rate and likelihood of making the majors should be taken into account. However, pure potential, should also matter. Michael Ynoa, Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez and Jurickson Profar were all ranked by BA in their respective organizations top prospects (3, 4, 7, 5) just months after their signings and without playing any games in any league yet as well (and all were several months younger than Zapata). If the people doing the ranking wanted to leave him out of their ranks that's fine, but if enough people included him and as a result he fell in the top 25, it should have been taken into account IMO. I mean, if we were trying to make a trade with another team and they had a choice between Zapata and Santos Rodriguez, it's fairly safe to assume what player they would choose to take.

 

 

Right.

 

Or even Daniel Webb vs. Zapata, there'd be an excellent debate, as the White Sox, more than anything else, need/lack young power bats at every position in the line-up besides Viciedo (he makes it).

Edited July 10, 2013 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/p...id=castil000phi

 

Signed for $2.2 million in 2010. I'm guessing, even with a decent Mariners system at the time, he could have been considered a top 10 prospect in their organization, right? But since signing, he has struggled mightily.

 

Ynoa also started off the year well, but he's far from a guarantee to make it too.

 

If nothing else, we are staying conservative with guys until we get some results. If Zapata puts up a .700-.750 OPS (or whatever) in the DSL next year, I can pretty much assure you that he'll be a top 5 prospect in the system.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

Oh, and regarding teams taking other minor leaguers over others? If a team is in a rebuilding phase, do you think they are going to want a lefty reliever with control issues or a prospect with 35 homer potential? Hell, do you think they are going to want a lefty reliever with control issues or a former first round pick hitting .200 at AA but who is still loaded with talent? Because I think the Astros or Marlins would take Jared Mitchell over Santos Rodriguez right now.

 

The jist of the list is that we combine potential, likelihood of reaching the majors, and likelihood of making an impact and sort it from there. If we went based solely on potential, Jared Mitchell would have made the list, but it's quite likely he's going to be a career minor leaguer at this point. Frankly, the same thing can be said for Zapata at this point in time.

[danman31]

I'm glad there's so much debate over the list, but I wish it wasn't all about Zapata. I guess no one cares (maybe fairly so) about the 11-25 prospects.

[witesoxfan]

I will say my favorite player on this list is Marcus Semien. He's not a guy who's ever going to hit for a particularly high average, but he seems to be a jack of all trades player. I also really like guys who walk more than they strike out, especially given how rare they are now a days.

[Buehrle>Wood]

I thought Micah Johnson would be top 5. Surprised to see him so low

[witesoxfan]

I thought Micah Johnson would be top 5. Surprised to see him so low

 

He keeps on hitting in A+ and maybe gets a cup of coffee in AA, and then shows well in the AFL, he will be.

 

Semi-unrelated, of all the Sox minor leaguers, I don't think there's a bigger slam dunk than Micah Johnson for the AFL.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Personally, I wouldn't have Zewski over Rienzo and Castro right now.

 

I like Trey, and I feel like got a steal in the 7th round for only $500,000, he was a third round talent who projects to be a good contact hitter. But it's not a sure bet that he reaches the majors, and we haven't seen enough of him to put him over prospects who will be in the majors this year. Castro looks like he can be a very good reliever in the majors, and Rienzo who is likely to make his major league debut this year, either as a reliever or as a back of rotation starter.

[danman31]

Personally, I wouldn't have Zewski over Rienzo and Castro right now.

 

I like Trey, and I feel like got a steal in the 7th round for only $500,000, he was a third round talent who projects to be a good contact hitter. But it's not a sure bet that he reaches the majors, and we haven't seen enough of him to put him over prospects who will be in the majors this year. Castro looks like he can be a very good reliever in the majors, and Rienzo who is likely to make his major league debut this year, either as a reliever or as a back of rotation starter.

I agree about Rienzo. I'm not as sure about Castro though. I'm starting to believe Rienzo can start in the Majors, and I've thought he would wind up in the pen for a few years now.

[QuickJones81]

I'm most happy that they resisted the temptation to allow Jared Mitchell to remain in the top 25 strictly because of his athleticism and high draft pick. He's a bust, it's fare to say at this point.