FS Midseason Top 25 Prospects

[danman31]

I'm most happy that they resisted the temptation to allow Jared Mitchell to remain in the top 25 strictly because of his athleticism and high draft pick. He's a bust, it's fare to say at this point.

I don't think there was much temptation. Mitchell was only voted by one of the five of us, and he came in at 30 on that list.

[Dizzy Sox]

I disagree with keeping Micah Johnson out of the top 10 but OK, I get the concerns about his D and age. Ranking Sanchez (presumably) above him...you lost me there. Sanchez hit for a nice average last year and he is a solid fielder, but I just don't see the upside. He has no pop (2 HRs in over 1000 pro ABs), he isn't particularly speedy on the bases (CS rate of around 40%), he doesn't walk all that much and he has done exactly squat in Charlotte so far this season, with little to no signs of progress. At this point you have to say his profile tops out as a utility middle infielder, or at best a light-hitting, barely marginal nine hole SS. Not terrible necessarily, but certainly not the kind of player you'd expect to see starting on a playoff-caliber team. Everything falls into place and you've got a, what--.700, .725 OPS 2B/SS who doesn't kill you with the glove.

 

Johnson on the other hand is having one of the most exciting seasons of any Sox minor league infielder in a long, long time. The pedigree is there--he was well regarded in college, slipping only due to injury. He hit .312 as a freshman with 11 HRs and then .335 as a sophomore--give him that same stat line as a junior and he's gone the first 5 rounds (ask yourself if your perception of his performance this year would be different if the Sox took him in the, say, 4th round). Despite missing most of his junior year he hit well after turning pro later that summer...IIRC he was over .300 most of the season at Great Falls until he ran out of gas the last few weeks (something we'll need to look out for as this season winds down incidentally). He has dominated the Sally league this year, improved each month, shown a good eye at the plate, displayed decent power, and he has been consistently over .300. Yes, his D has been shaky, but it is not uncommon for infielders to rack up the errors their first season or two in the lower minors. Examples abound: Derek Jeter had 56 in the same league, Juan Uribe 38, Joe Crede 33 and even Ozzie racked up 79 his first two years in full season leagues, and all went on to be considered plus fielders (though I admit Jeter's fielding has always been overrated.) That said, even if he can't stick at 2B he still would have value in CF--contrasted with Sanchez, who has zero value anywhere but as a middle infielder. The Reds moved Billy Hamilton from 2B to CF, and Micah hit just as well at Low A as he (yes, I understand Hamilton did it at 20 vs. Micah at 22. Still, the point is that he has shown the ability to hit for average, with speed, some power, etc. from either position) In fact, it is true Micah was slightly old for Low-A, but not excessively so, and through an admittedly small sample size at High A he is more than holding his own. Plus, chronologically he may be a bit old, but from an experience level he is right on track if you consider that he missed half a season of games last year due to his injury.

 

Put another way...most of the prospects we have are just that--prospects, meaning they have potential but haven't necessarily shown they can deliver yet. Micah is one of the few that has actually excelled in real live games. All else being equal, I'd much rather take my chances with a player who has shown the ability to dominate even if they have a few question marks (within reason--age, D, etc.) than one who could possibly dominate at some point in the future.

 

To recap...Sanchez's upside: singles hitting middle infielder who is solid if not spectacular with the glove. Worst case: utility infielder who lives around the Mendoza line. Johnson's upside: Top-of-the-order threat with decent power, an ability to get on base and score runs, average to slightly-below average glove at a premium position--think Ray Durham with more speed but less power. Worst case: fast CF/4th OF who can steal bases and is a lefty bat off the bench. Personally, I'd put Micah only behind Erik Johnson, Hawkins, T. Thompson, Anderson, Phegley and maybe, just maybe Barnum and/or Beck. If he does as well at W-S as he did Kanny I'd consider moving him to #3 or #4 on that list.

 

Micah has played basically the equivalent of a full season of ball. Check out his stat line over that period:

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS

152 695 600 129 187 28 17 10 70 82 27 83 145 .312 .398 .465 .863

 

Not too shabby. That paints the picture of an exciting player, the type of which we haven't had in our system in a long, long time...

 

Last quick comment: I'd probably try to sneak Kevan Smith in the Top 25 somewhere--possibly booting Rodriguez, his control is shaky, and lord knows we don't need another Donny Veal out of the pen.

 

[caulfield12]

I disagree with keeping Micah Johnson out of the top 10 but OK, I get the concerns about his D and age. Ranking Sanchez (presumably) above him...you lost me there. Sanchez hit for a nice average last year and he is a solid fielder, but I just don't see the upside. He has no pop (2 HRs in over 1000 pro ABs), he isn't particularly speedy on the bases (CS rate of around 40%), he doesn't walk all that much and he has done exactly squat in Charlotte so far this season, with little to no signs of progress. At this point you have to say his profile tops out as a utility middle infielder, or at best a light-hitting, barely marginal nine hole SS. Not terrible necessarily, but certainly not the kind of player you'd expect to see starting on a playoff-caliber team. Everything falls into place and you've got a, what--.700, .725 OPS 2B/SS who doesn't kill you with the glove.

 

Johnson on the other hand is having one of the most exciting seasons of any Sox minor league infielder in a long, long time. The pedigree is there--he was well regarded in college, slipping only due to injury. He hit .312 as a freshman with 11 HRs and then .335 as a sophomore--give him that same stat line as a junior and he's gone the first 5 rounds (ask yourself if your perception of his performance this year would be different if the Sox took him in the, say, 4th round). Despite missing most of his junior year he hit well after turning pro later that summer...IIRC he was over .300 most of the season at Great Falls until he ran out of gas the last few weeks (something we'll need to look out for as this season winds down incidentally). He has dominated the Sally league this year, improved each month, shown a good eye at the plate, displayed decent power, and he has been consistently over .300. Yes, his D has been shaky, but it is not uncommon for infielders to rack up the errors their first season or two in the lower minors. Examples abound: Derek Jeter had 56 in the same league, Juan Uribe 38, Joe Crede 33 and even Ozzie racked up 79 his first two years in full season leagues, and all went on to be considered plus fielders (though I admit Jeter's fielding has always been overrated.) That said, even if he can't stick at 2B he still would have value in CF--contrasted with Sanchez, who has zero value anywhere but as a middle infielder. The Reds moved Billy Hamilton from 2B to CF, and Micah hit just as well at Low A as he (yes, I understand Hamilton did it at 20 vs. Micah at 22. Still, the point is that he has shown the ability to hit for average, with speed, some power, etc. from either position) In fact, it is true Micah was slightly old for Low-A, but not excessively so, and through an admittedly small sample size at High A he is more than holding his own. Plus, chronologically he may be a bit old, but from an experience level he is right on track if you consider that he missed half a season of games last year due to his injury.

 

Put another way...most of the prospects we have are just that--prospects, meaning they have potential but haven't necessarily shown they can deliver yet. Micah is one of the few that has actually excelled in real live games. All else being equal, I'd much rather take my chances with a player who has shown the ability to dominate even if they have a few question marks (within reason--age, D, etc.) than one who could possibly dominate at some point in the future.

 

To recap...Sanchez's upside: singles hitting middle infielder who is solid if not spectacular with the glove. Worst case: utility infielder who lives around the Mendoza line. Johnson's upside: Top-of-the-order threat with decent power, an ability to get on base and score runs, average to slightly-below average glove at a premium position--think Ray Durham with more speed but less power. Worst case: fast CF/4th OF who can steal bases and is a lefty bat off the bench. Personally, I'd put Micah only behind Erik Johnson, Hawkins, T. Thompson, Anderson, Phegley and maybe, just maybe Barnum and/or Beck. If he does as well at W-S as he did Kanny I'd consider moving him to #3 or #4 on that list.

 

Micah has played basically the equivalent of a full season of ball. Check out his stat line over that period:

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS

152 695 600 129 187 28 17 10 70 82 27 83 145 .312 .398 .465 .863

 

Not too shabby. That paints the picture of an exciting player, the type of which we haven't had in our system in a long, long time...

 

Last quick comment: I'd probably try to sneak Kevan Smith in the Top 25 somewhere--possibly booting Rodriguez, his control is shaky, and lord knows we don't need another Donny Veal out of the pen.

 

No way Johnson is faster than Durham, not even close.

 

Micah has developed a very efficient technique for stealing bases (at the Low A level), and he's quick, but he's not flat out 0-60 MPH fast.

 

And I don't see his SB/CS numbers holding up in Winston-Salem and BIRM.

[BaseballNick]

I don't understand how Micah Johnson isn't a top 10 prospect in this system. He's one of the few players who has put up solid (and in some areas, even gaudy) numbers at an age appropriate level, and even earned a promotion. In a system that has not been short on disappointment, he's been a bright spot.

[danman31]

Last quick comment: I'd probably try to sneak Kevan Smith in the Top 25 somewhere--possibly booting Rodriguez, his control is shaky, and lord knows we don't need another Donny Veal out of the pen.

Carlos Sanchez hit a combined .323 between High-A/AA/AAA last year at 20 years old. Given his age and much better defensive ability that's a far more impressive season than what Micah is doing now. Not to mention, the floor of Micah isn't a fourth outfielder. The floor of any player in A ball is they don't make the Majors.

 

Also, I don't buy that you can put a fast 2B and stick him in CF. CF is not an easy position and defense matters quite a bit there. If Micah can't play 2B, which you conceded is possible, he doesn't have a position. His bat won't play in the corners and we have no idea if he can play another premium defensive position in CF.

 

I'm not defending Santos Rodriguez, I didn't vote for him. However, Kevan Smith is 25 and in High-A ball. Not a prospect.

[harfman77]

I don't understand how Micah Johnson isn't a top 10 prospect in this system. He's one of the few players who has put up solid (and in some areas, even gaudy) numbers at an age appropriate level, and even earned a promotion. In a system that has not been short on disappointment, he's been a bright spot.

 

He put those numbers up against low level competition with much of the league 2-3 years younger than him, and he doesn't have a position defensively - 20 errors in 78 games - OUCH. If he continues to hit at AA next season and can figure things out in the field he will shoot up the rankings.

[Jake]

Don't misread our rankings for a dislike of Johnson - I'd say all of the voters are very enthusiastic and excited about Micah. There are just some giant caveats to his rise.

 

The things I think about:

-Stolen bases: great. He does not have elite speed, though. He will not steal 70 bases in the MLB. He is a good base stealer and he should remain a threat, but there are probably several guys in the system that are faster than him. This tool will necessarily be overrated. He's not Billy Hamilton and people like Jim Callis are emphatic about this.

-Errors. We all know about this. He might be a left fielder.

-Age. This has been touched on as well. He's a bit old for the levels he is playing in. However, this is why he's been moving up. You may see him in AA at some point, though I'm unsure of how they can make a spot for him.

 

On the negative side. So you see a guy whose floor is pretty damn low. He might be a poor hitting left fielder whose speed is overrated. He could end up being a poor man's AAA Scott Podsednik. He might be a young Chone Figgins. Time will tell.

[NorthSideSox72]

He put those numbers up against low level competition with much of the league 2-3 years younger than him, and he doesn't have a position defensively - 20 errors in 78 games - OUCH. If he continues to hit at AA next season and can figure things out in the field he will shoot up the rankings.

Let's not overblow the too-old thing. It is not true that "much of the league is 2-3 years younger than him", that is an exaggeration. At 22 in A ball, he was right in the middle. And at 22 in High A now, he's younger than average, but where he should be age-wise amongst actual prospects (some of the minor league filler tend to skew the ages high).

 

[witesoxfan]

He has better gap to gap power than Figgins or Podsednik though, and he's probably a bit slower. My expectations, if he were to keep panning out, would be comparable to De Aza - gap to gap guy who hits for a decent average, draws some walks, steals some bases, hits some homers. About a .750 OPS.

[NorthSideSox72]

I also want to add on Micah, that you shouldn't read TOO much into the errors. First, according to both him and at least one regular observer I've read, a good portion of his errors were trying to get too fancy or force things. That is a playing maturity issue likely to abate over time. Second, even the skill errors, he's still in A ball and you have to give some leeway for him improving. I wouldn't write him off of 2B just yet.

 

And I agree with the earlier post stating that a move to CF isn't necessarily going to work. Different skill set in some ways, and he may actually be worse there. I'd much rather he focus on improving at 2B.

 

[witesoxfan]

Regarding right handed players, I'd rate athletic prowess is prioritized as such (note: I'm leaving catcher off simply because teams typically will do what they can to keep their great athletes away from catcher...Joe Mauer is the exception, not the rule)

 

SS

CF

2B

3B

RF

LF

1B

 

These are somewhat interchangeable, and obviously spots can be skipped (can go from SS to 2B or 3B), and you will generally only move down. You want them to play SS because lefties can't. If they are incredibly athletic but can't field ground balls, you obviously don't want them playing 2B but they should be able to handle CF.

 

Exceptions can surely be made, and that one is more likely than others...I'm pretty sure when John Shelby Jr was in the system, he moved from 2B to CF and the transition seemed to be pretty smooth...but when a guy is at 2B, it means they've either tried him in CF already and it didn't work, or they had him at SS, didn't like his arm, but liked the way he picked. The second instance is one of the few where a guy can actually move up, but you just don't see that happen a lot.

Edited July 11, 2013 by witesoxfan

[Ozzie Ball]

No way Johnson is faster than Durham, not even close.

 

Micah has developed a very efficient technique for stealing bases (at the Low A level), and he's quick, but he's not flat out 0-60 MPH fast.

 

And I don't see his SB/CS numbers holding up in Winston-Salem and BIRM.

Any chance you could link me to wherever you got this information from? It's just the opposite to what I have read. I was of the opinion that Johnson has plus-plus '70' raw speed, but bad base running technique/instincts. This would also be backed up by his fairly poor 75% SB%.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Any chance you could link me to wherever you got this information from? It's just the opposite to what I have read. I was of the opinion that Johnson has plus-plus '70' raw speed, but bad base running technique/instincts. This would also be backed up by his fairly poor 75% SB%.

 

Caulfield is right. It's been written about quite a bit throughout the course of the season.

[Ozzie Ball]

Caulfield is right. It's been written about quite a bit throughout the course of the season.

That's just what I heave read recently (over the last 3 weeks or so) from Jim Callis, Baseball Prospectus, and some Fangraphs guy.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

That's just what I heave read recently (over the last 3 weeks or so) from Jim Callis, Baseball Prospectus, and some Fangraphs guy.

 

The FanGraphs article about Johnson was just about the opposite of what you said you read though

[NorthSideSox72]

The FanGraphs article about Johnson was just about the opposite of what you said you read though

Yes. Johnson is pretty fast, but I've seen more like 55-60 grade, not lightning fast or anything. He's got an unusual technique, and he's a pretty smart kid (having interviewed him myself, and talked to some people), so I'm guessing he can adapt pretty well.

 

[Ozzie Ball]

The FanGraphs article about Johnson was just about the opposite of what you said you read though

In what way?

 

Let’s start with Johnson’s most obvious ability–his speed. As you might expect from somebody with such robust steal totals, Johnson is not lacking in this department. Here, he gets down the line in a whopping 3.6 seconds on a bunt:

 

And here’s another one at 3.7 seconds, where you can get a better sense of how he flies:

 

Johnson regularly clocks in at 3.95-4.05 seconds to first on non-bunts, which is still excellent, even if it isn’t quite Hamiltonian

 

he should retain well-above-average speed for the next decade-plus

 

he has been caught sixteen times (giving him a good-not-great 75% success rate), and occasionally makes reckless outs on the bases–last weekend against Rome, he was thrown out after rounding first too far, was caught stealing home, and was picked off at first, all in a two-game stretch. As he advances and faces pitchers, catchers and outfielders with more arm strength, savvy, and instincts, he’ll need to reduce his risktaking in order to optimize the actual run production his speed can create.

 

His speed gives him excellent range on the occasions he does get a good read on the ball

 

Johnson’s skillset evokes that of Jemile Weeks–a ton of speed

 

He currently sports a .413 BABIP that a) continues to emphasize how great his speed is

 

In a best-case scenario, he could be one of baseball’s most prolific speedsters

 

Unlike a lot of speed demons, Johnson is going to have to hit well in order to stay in a major league lineup

 

Johnson’s great closing speed may end up suiting him better in center field than second

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/micah-joh...-and-what-else/

 

Note that 3.95-4.05 seconds to first base on non-bunt attempts from the left side equates to 70 speed.

 

Callis (July 1):

While Johnson’s speed rates as a 65-70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, he’s not in the same class as Hamilton, who really deserves a 90. It’s also worth noting that Johnson has been caught stealing 19 times, six more than any other minor leaguer, and his 76 percent rate isn’t overly impressive.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/ask-...k-at-shortstop/

 

The BP stuff is behind a paywall so I'll only provide one line (June 24):

Johnson is a 70-grade raw runner but his instincts force his speed to play down a grade during games

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=21018

 

He's not Hamilton, but all of this suggests to me that he has plus-plus speed.

Edited July 11, 2013 by Ozzie Ball

[NorthSideSox72]

I've seen the 65-70 bit before, seen 60 as well, hadn't seen the 70 straight. If he is indeed that plus-plus fast, I feel awfully good about him taking his steals to the majors. I've interviewed a bunch of prospects, and Micah Johnson came off to me as very sharp, so I'd think he can make adjustments and learn pretty quickly.

 

[caulfield12]

I've watched quite a few of his games now at milbtv.com, he's not a burner.

 

He's very quick...but he doesn't fly down the line. He doesn't have Pods' speed, or Durham's. He definitely doesn't have that pure sprinter's speed to get you from 2nd to 3rd on a triple, where those guys actually seem like they're accelerating right around second base.

[Ozzie Ball]

I will say my favorite player on this list is Marcus Semien. He's not a guy who's ever going to hit for a particularly high average, but he seems to be a jack of all trades player. I also really like guys who walk more than they strike out, especially given how rare they are now a days.

Love, love, love Semien's statistical profile this year. His walk rate is phenomenal, and given the fact that he's not some hulking power hitter, I'd guess he's not getting many cheap walks (only 2 IBB for example). Contact rate is very good and if he can keep the contact rate up then he should hit for considerably more average than his current .267 mark. He's very age appropriate for his level. Solid power. Yet for some reason I feel very sceptical about him. I need to see more. There isn't enough of a track record to get too hyped up about him... yet. I haven't read any recent scouting reports so I don't know much from that perspective, but the numbers make him very intriguing. If I was ranking he would fit somewhere in the top 10 for me.

[caulfield12]

Love, love, love Semien's statistical profile this year. His walk rate is phenomenal, and given the fact that he's not some hulking power hitter, I'd guess he's not getting many cheap walks (only 2 IBB for example). Contact rate is very good and if he can keep the contact rate up then he should hit for considerably more average than his current .267 mark. He's very age appropriate for his level. Solid power. Yet for some reason I feel very sceptical about him. I need to see more. There isn't enough of a track record to get too hyped up about him... yet. I haven't read any recent scouting reports so I don't know much from that perspective, but the numbers make him very intriguing. If I was ranking he would fit somewhere in the top 10 for me.

 

 

He should be a fringe Top 10 guy.

 

Does a lot of things well, but not really great in any statistical category or one of the infamous five tools.

 

If he was a legit SS prospect, then sure. And hitting in the .260's isn't exactly dominating the Southern League. He's solid, the type of complementary player who won't hurt you but isn't anything resembling a star quality player by any stretch of the imagination.

[NorthSideSox72]

I've watched quite a few of his games now at milbtv.com, he's not a burner.

 

He's very quick...but he doesn't fly down the line. He doesn't have Pods' speed, or Durham's. He definitely doesn't have that pure sprinter's speed to get you from 2nd to 3rd on a triple, where those guys actually seem like they're accelerating right around second base.

And yet, he is (or recently was) leading MiLB in triples. Was leading his league in the SAL for sure. Dude has 12 triples in about 360 PA.

 

These speed measures are subjective anyway. Yes, home-first and other base-base times can be documented, but in small sample sizes, and when dealing in hundredths or even tenths of seconds, dudes with stopwatches are only so accurate.

 

No doubt he has above average speed, certainly plus. Maybe plus-plus. Not as fast as Hamilton. But arguing 60 vs 70 speed is, I think, not so black and white.

 

I am encouraged by the fact that he is not Hamilton-speed but still steals a ton of bases, at a somewhat decent rate, and clearly understands the dynamics involved in doing so.

 

[caulfield12]

And yet, he is (or recently was) leading MiLB in triples. Was leading his league in the SAL for sure. Dude has 12 triples in about 360 PA.

 

These speed measures are subjective anyway. Yes, home-first and other base-base times can be documented, but in small sample sizes, and when dealing in hundredths or even tenths of seconds, dudes with stopwatches are only so accurate.

 

No doubt he has above average speed, certainly plus. Maybe plus-plus. Not as fast as Hamilton. But arguing 60 vs 70 speed is, I think, not so black and white.

 

I am encouraged by the fact that he is not Hamilton-speed but still steals a ton of bases, at a somewhat decent rate, and clearly understands the dynamics involved in doing so.

 

A lot of that has to do with the ballparks, too.

 

Like the Torii Hunter triple today in DET that split Rios and DeAza and didn't even manage a throw (or slide) on a guy who's nearly 38 years old.

 

Would be interesting to see how many of his triples were hit in the RCF gap and right down the line, and the park dimensions.

[danman31]

Micah's basestealing technique is so weird that I think the Sox just let him run like crazy and didn't care about his percentage. He had 80 stolen base attempts in 77 games with Kannapolis. So far he's only got 4 in 7 games with the Dash. Maybe they will make him be more selective from now on.

[caulfield12]

Micah's basestealing technique is so weird that I think the Sox just let him run like crazy and didn't care about his percentage. He had 80 stolen base attempts in 77 games with Kannapolis. So far he's only got 4 in 7 games with the Dash. Maybe they will make him be more selective from now on.

 

 

I would guess he'd be down to 50-60 successful steals in a full season at W-S.

 

And a success rate of about 60-70%.