FS Midseason Top 25 Prospects

[caulfield12]

Looking back, if I could do it over, I'd rate Phegley #2. I'm buying into his success over half a season because he's finally been healthy for more than a year now and able to really go at it, but, at least in the early going, it's carried up to the majors. It's just hard to project what he can actually do, because, given his history, even including all that's gone on, it's hard to project his min/mean/max and what he can actually bring to the table.

 

Honestly, considering his numbers this year and the way he's swung the bat at the majors, I don't think maxing out at .280/.350/.500 is unreasonable, nor do I think .230/.300/.400 is unreasonable. We just don't know.

 

That, and the fact that he's a bit older, (I think) pushed him down this list.

 

 

Are you 100% sure you're being steered too much by this season's results and the 3 homers in the last week...the "full/completely healthy" argument, as well.

 

But yeah, that 700 OPS number doesn't seem completely unreasonable. For a long stretch last season, Flowers was managing it in part-time play.

 

The problem is all these guys with 700 MAX OPS numbers....at least from what we know of them now, maybe Gillaspie can be 750, maybe Phegley can put up 700, maybe Viciedo can put up 800. Carlos Sanchez would be lucky to put up 550-575 right now at the major league level, and 650-675 looks like his ceiling (at the moment).

 

One thing we lack is anyone we can COUNT on putting up an 800 every year. Konerko and Dunn were supposed to be that, along with Dayan.

 

 

 

[witesoxfan]

Are you 100% sure you're being steered too much by this season's results and the 3 homers in the last week...the "full/completely healthy" argument, as well.

 

But yeah, that 700 OPS number doesn't seem completely unreasonable. For a long stretch last season, Flowers was managing it in part-time play.

 

The problem is all these guys with 700 MAX OPS numbers....at least from what we know of them now, maybe Gillaspie can be 750, maybe Phegley can put up 700, maybe Viciedo can put up 800. Carlos Sanchez would be lucky to put up 550-575 right now at the major league level, and 650-675 looks like his ceiling (at the moment).

 

One thing we lack is anyone we can COUNT on putting up an 800 every year. Konerko and Dunn were supposed to be that, along with Dayan.

 

I'm not trying to convince anybody, it's merely my opinion. I do believe that Phegley is for real. There are times you will see it. Take Magglio Ordonez for example. He was 2 years young, but he went from a .260/.330/.460 line to a .330/.365/.475 line. The Sox AAA team at that point was in Nashville, so I have no idea how that stadium played, but it's an example of a guy who busted out.

 

No, I don't believe Phegley's max OPS is .700. I believe he can be anywhere from a .650 OPS guy to a .900 OPS guy; a guy who hits for average, a guy who hits for power, a guy who does both, or a guy who really doesn't do a lot of either. He might just be seeing the ball really well this year - I don't know. But when you consider all the other prospects in the system, and consider that Phegley was thought of as a good hitter coming out of college, it is entirely possible that he just needed to get healthy and into the swing of things to start producing. He was pushed through the system quickly even with those health problems, and he looks like a good player right now. Also consider that catchers do take a little while longer to develop into hitters.

 

I can keep going on, but I really like Phegley moving forward, and I think I would have rated him 2nd behind Johnson if I could do it over.

[Balta1701]

I'm not trying to convince anybody, it's merely my opinion. I do believe that Phegley is for real. There are times you will see it. Take Magglio Ordonez for example. He was 2 years young, but he went from a .260/.330/.460 line to a .330/.365/.475 line. The Sox AAA team at that point was in Nashville, so I have no idea how that stadium played, but it's an example of a guy who busted out.

 

No, I don't believe Phegley's max OPS is .700. I believe he can be anywhere from a .650 OPS guy to a .900 OPS guy; a guy who hits for average, a guy who hits for power, a guy who does both, or a guy who really doesn't do a lot of either. He might just be seeing the ball really well this year - I don't know. But when you consider all the other prospects in the system, and consider that Phegley was thought of as a good hitter coming out of college, it is entirely possible that he just needed to get healthy and into the swing of things to start producing. He was pushed through the system quickly even with those health problems, and he looks like a good player right now. Also consider that catchers do take a little while longer to develop into hitters.

 

I can keep going on, but I really like Phegley moving forward, and I think I would have rated him 2nd behind Johnson if I could do it over.

I could totally understand someone rating Phegley that high. My issue with doing so on my list is the injury thing. It'll take 2, 3 years of him putting up an .850+ OPS and playing 140 games a year before I stop worrying that his body will break down if they're not careful.

 

I'd like to think he's legit also, but when I look at his stats with my brain filter, I see a guy with great numbers at a high level...for 1 year, and a guy who has spent years getting to that point.

[southsider2k5]

The sad thing is that my first thought is still "steroids", even though there is no reason to do so.

 

Thanks Bud.

[caulfield12]

I'm not trying to convince anybody, it's merely my opinion. I do believe that Phegley is for real. There are times you will see it. Take Magglio Ordonez for example. He was 2 years young, but he went from a .260/.330/.460 line to a .330/.365/.475 line. The Sox AAA team at that point was in Nashville, so I have no idea how that stadium played, but it's an example of a guy who busted out.

 

No, I don't believe Phegley's max OPS is .700. I believe he can be anywhere from a .650 OPS guy to a .900 OPS guy; a guy who hits for average, a guy who hits for power, a guy who does both, or a guy who really doesn't do a lot of either. He might just be seeing the ball really well this year - I don't know. But when you consider all the other prospects in the system, and consider that Phegley was thought of as a good hitter coming out of college, it is entirely possible that he just needed to get healthy and into the swing of things to start producing. He was pushed through the system quickly even with those health problems, and he looks like a good player right now. Also consider that catchers do take a little while longer to develop into hitters.

 

I can keep going on, but I really like Phegley moving forward, and I think I would have rated him 2nd behind Johnson if I could do it over.

 

 

Is there any reason to believe he's changed his offensive approach or swing plane this year?

 

The rap on Phegley was (one of them) that he was a line driver hitter, but not someone capable of hitting a bunch of homers....

 

Now, every time he swings, he's getting under the ball and putting it up into the air to straightaway LF.

 

Obviously, they're going to start developing a book on him, like has happened the second time around with Puig...going with low and away breaking ball and sliders and busting him inside with fastballs to see if he can make those adjustments.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I could totally understand someone rating Phegley that high. My issue with doing so on my list is the injury thing. It'll take 2, 3 years of him putting up an .850+ OPS and playing 140 games a year before I stop worrying that his body will break down if they're not careful.

 

I'd like to think he's legit also, but when I look at his stats with my brain filter, I see a guy with great numbers at a high level...for 1 year, and a guy who has spent years getting to that point.

You can't look at it as "a guy who spent years getting to that point" in a vacuum. 2012 was his first full healthy year in the minors. If you look at the number of PA's he got getting to that point, from A to A+ to AA, were actually very small compared to many other prospects. The health issues were the cause, but they kept promoting him anyway, so take that into account.

 

The sad thing is that my first thought is still "steroids", even though there is no reason to do so.

 

Thanks Bud.

 

I worry about that a lot less than I do with other prospects. I mean, here is a guy who had a blood disorder caused by problems in blood chemistry. You have to think that would make him really, really hesitant to run some sort of harsh chemicals through there.

 

Is there any reason to believe he's changed his offensive approach or swing plane this year?

 

The rap on Phegley was (one of them) that he was a line driver hitter, but not someone capable of hitting a bunch of homers....

 

Now, every time he swings, he's getting under the ball and putting it up into the air to straightaway LF.

 

Obviously, they're going to start developing a book on him, like has happened the second time around with Puig...going with low and away breaking ball and sliders and busting him inside with fastballs to see if he can make those adjustments.

 

He has said he made some hitting adjustments in the offseason.

 

[Jake]

It's pretty simple. He had no track record since he was drafted. That wasn't necessarily his fault (this has been talked about at length), but there just wasn't a strong back catalogue of success for us to look back at to be sure this isn't "just" a really great hot streak. The fact he's ranked 5 shows you that we're pretty darn sure he's for real.

[Balta1701]

You can't look at it as "a guy who spent years getting to that point" in a vacuum. 2012 was his first full healthy year in the minors. If you look at the number of PA's he got getting to that point, from A to A+ to AA, were actually very small compared to many other prospects. The health issues were the cause, but they kept promoting him anyway, so take that into account.

I know, but this is the White Sox we're talking about. They'd push a decapitated corpse up to AA if it was 22.

[caulfield12]

I know, but this is the White Sox we're talking about. They'd push a decapitated corpse up to AA if it was 22.

 

The giraffe from Hangover III says "hello!"

 

I sense a marketing tie-in with Toyz R Us.

Edited July 12, 2013 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

I think Chris Bassitt is by far the biggest miss on the top 25 list IMO. I know he's on the older side, but he's a converted college closer and has pitched very well this year, arguably better than Chris Beck. Also, scouting reports say he has a nice fastball, but needed to improve his secondary pitches. Based on his numbers this year, I'm guessing he's made some progress.

 

As for the top 10 specifically, Micah Johnson not being in the top 10 doesn't make sense to me. I think the age factor is way overplayed and while the defensive concerns are legit, he's got all the tools to be a solid defensive 2B. With hard work/repetition and enough coaching, he should get better in that area. Maybe he doesn't stick at 2B, but its way too early to assume that. I would easily rank him above all but the top 5 prospects on your list. Again, just my opinion.

 

 

[GGajewski18]

Just a quick question, with the trade deadline looming, say the White Sox were to get quality, top prospects for guys. Would you reevaluate the prospect list, with new guys possibly coming in and cracking the top 25? Would you evaluate their seasons from this year or just not enough information? Thank you

[danman31]

Just a quick question, with the trade deadline looming, say the White Sox were to get quality, top prospects for guys. Would you reevaluate the prospect list, with new guys possibly coming in and cracking the top 25? Would you evaluate their seasons from this year or just not enough information? Thank you

We probably won't make a new list until the offseason so it won't really be a factor, but those guys would definitely be included.

[southsider2k5]

I worry about that a lot less than I do with other prospects. I mean, here is a guy who had a blood disorder caused by problems in blood chemistry. You have to think that would make him really, really hesitant to run some sort of harsh chemicals through there.

 

Its not a legitimate concern, just a knee-jerk reaction to the past 20 years in baseball.

[GGajewski18]

We probably won't make a new list until the offseason so it won't really be a factor, but those guys would definitely be included.

 

Thank you, looking forward to it.

[oldsox]

Here is the 11-25 portion of the list.

 

On Friday we'll publish the Top 10, full list and a list of players who just missed.

 

The five contributing voters were Balta1701, danman31, Jake, NorthsideSideSox72 and witesoxfan.

 

Discuss...

 

 

EDIT TO ADD LINK TO FULL LIST: HERE IT IS

How come Jason is not on the voting team?

[caulfield12]

How come Jason is not on the voting team?

 

where the heck is SCENARIO?

[danman31]

How come Jason is not on the voting team?

He has deferred saying he doesn't follow the prospects enough anymore.

[Chisoxfn]

He has deferred saying he doesn't follow the prospects enough anymore.

Now now...I still follow them...I just am laying in the weeds waiting till our baby pops out and I take a job where I work less and then bam...I'll make my big return to writing

Like the route the Sox are taking in the draft and love the fact that we actually have some toolsy guys in the system, now its a matter of hiring or finding the right developmental people to help them along (or maybe we have them and its just a matter of time?).

[ShandyMan]

Just wanted to say great job with the list and the content. Truly a great read.

[Balta1701]

Great list guys. Some of my favorite posters contributed on it and made for a great read. Appreciate the hard work and dedication. This site is lucky to have the FutureSox team.

 

As far as the Tim Anderson debate, I really think its being understated how RAW Anderson really is. He has played two years of JuCo and 1-2 seasons in HS. I would argue he is more raw than your traditional HS 1st RD picks who played baseball 9-12 months a year since they were 9 or 10. I hope we take it very slow with Anderson and stop this "challenging" bulls*** aka moving guys up rapidly through the system. I really hope he sticks in Kanny for the remainder of '13.

I think Anderson might be a little bit more advanced than you're giving him credit for, but I think he was in a spot where not many scouts were going to be able to see him and that contributes to that impression. But that said, you're 100% right, they should take their time with him.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think Chris Bassitt is by far the biggest miss on the top 25 list IMO. I know he's on the older side, but he's a converted college closer and has pitched very well this year, arguably better than Chris Beck. Also, scouting reports say he has a nice fastball, but needed to improve his secondary pitches. Based on his numbers this year, I'm guessing he's made some progress.

 

As for the top 10 specifically, Micah Johnson not being in the top 10 doesn't make sense to me. I think the age factor is way overplayed and while the defensive concerns are legit, he's got all the tools to be a solid defensive 2B. With hard work/repetition and enough coaching, he should get better in that area. Maybe he doesn't stick at 2B, but its way too early to assume that. I would easily rank him above all but the top 5 prospects on your list. Again, just my opinion.

Bassitt was an odd case. I had him at 19, one other person at 28, the other three he didn't make their T30 at all. I like his motion, his fastball, his command, and his offspeed stuff is improving. When he does falter, you can see it in his motion. As he gets more consistent, he's going to be very good. Might still be a reliever, but I believe he's got a good shot at the majors.

 

Johnson may become a 5-10 guy, but I'm pretty comfortable with him at 12 right now, which is right where I had him. Defense is somewhat of a concern, but not my biggest one. My biggest concern is simply that people are pushing him up based on a half season of play. This isn't a 1st round pick here. FOr me, he'd need to tear it up the rest of this year in A+ too before he is into the T10. He may do that, and he may get there.

[Balta1701]

Bassitt was an odd case. I had him at 19, one other person at 28, the other three he didn't make their T30 at all. I like his motion, his fastball, his command, and his offspeed stuff is improving. When he does falter, you can see it in his motion. As he gets more consistent, he's going to be very good. Might still be a reliever, but I believe he's got a good shot at the majors.

That's one of the problems with relievers that are a long way away. If you haven't seen them personally, it's hard to tell things like "motion", "command", etc. You can see walk and strikeout numbers but a guy with a decent but wild fastball can pull that off at lower levels. You haven't seen how they set up hitters, how hitters adapt to them, and so on.

[danman31]

As far as the Tim Anderson debate, I really think its being understated how RAW Anderson really is. He has played two years of JuCo and 1-2 seasons in HS. I would argue he is more raw than your traditional HS 1st RD picks who played baseball 9-12 months a year since they were 9 or 10. I hope we take it very slow with Anderson and stop this "challenging" bulls*** aka moving guys up rapidly through the system. I really hope he sticks in Kanny for the remainder of '13.

I don't think you have to worry about him moving up to Winston-Salem. Even if the Dash are in the playoffs and Kanny isn't, DeMichele and Micah Johnson have enough prospect status to not be bumped for a one-week stint in the playoffs. I fully expect Anderson to start 2014 in Winston-Salem, which is definitely a tough assignment for a first full season.

[witesoxfan]

Regarding Micah Johnson, I just want to reiterate one final time that most of this has to do with sample size. We have seen, on several occasions, guys put up big numbers at A or A+ and fizzle out rather quickly after that. I can pretty much single-handedly assure that if Johnson puts up a good second half and a reasonable AFL (and, barring injury, it seems there's little reason to keep him out of the AFL this year what with being allowed to send one or two prospects below AA to the AFL), he's probably going to be a top 5 prospect.