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7/17 Games


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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 09:15 AM)
Beck: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

 

On the season so far... in 94.2 IP: 2.95 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .257 AvgA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 1.77 GO/AO

 

Beck has a fastball with a lot of sink, to go with the slider/curve and change. His ground ball rate is very good, the average-against is fine, the ERA shows he handles his games well at least, and the control is good.

 

But that K rate is very low, especially for a guy who supposedly throws low-mid 90's. He doesn't need to strike out a guy an inning to be successful (he's getting ground balls), but that is a lower K/9 rate than any of his rotation partners in W-S. Far less than most of them. In fact it is hard to find a starter anywhere in the Sox org, all the way up and down, with a lower rate.

 

Not that I'm saying it is the end of the world. He is still developmentally (and in age) very young, and he skipped A ball. He also made some dramatic physical changes prior to the season. But it is a little worrisome.

 

A number that would be interesting to see (and a number that would be subjective) would be soft hit balls vs hard hit balls for Beck. At some point, he is going to need to increase his strikeouts because better players will square the ball up more often, but it's possible he's so advanced or his stuff so good that the guys aren't seeing and hitting the ball very well.

 

He is a guy I am very intrigued by but we absolutely need to see more strikeouts.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 08:53 AM)
Those are more what I'd call IDEAL ages, not anything like typical or average ages. Average ages are more like 25-27 at AAA, and down from there to 22-23 at Low A.

 

Also, age is important, but it is only as important as effective, or professional, age. Guy who was drafted at 22 but reaches AAA at 25 is on a good track, for example. Other side, guy drafted at 18 who is 25 in AAA, that is 7 years to get there, probably not a great sign. Have to keep development time in mind.

 

 

 

Yeah, not exactly a huge slump. He wasn't going to keep hitting .300+ forever most likely, he's not seeing an adjustment to his level. Completely expected, would have been a surprise if he was hitting in A+ the entire rest of the season like he was in A.

Yep, my bad. That's what I meant.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 09:53 AM)
Also, age is important, but it is only as important as effective, or professional, age. Guy who was drafted at 22 but reaches AAA at 25 is on a good track, for example. Other side, guy drafted at 18 who is 25 in AAA, that is 7 years to get there, probably not a great sign. Have to keep development time in mind.

The other detail you didn't add though is physical development. 21 year olds are just, on average, less physically developed than 23 year olds, assuming that they're trying to stay in shape. A guy who is old for a league might be putting up good numbers because he's physically more developed than everyone in the league even if he isn't very professionally experienced.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 01:33 PM)
The other detail you didn't add though is physical development. 21 year olds are just, on average, less physically developed than 23 year olds, assuming that they're trying to stay in shape. A guy who is old for a league might be putting up good numbers because he's physically more developed than everyone in the league even if he isn't very professionally experienced.

That is also true. But it also varies by person. Hell, I was a late bloomer, I grew 3 inches in my freshman year of college as an 18/19 year old. So at an age some players are already in the minors, I was still getting taller. That isn't even getting into the years of filling in, adding muscle, balance, etc.

 

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 06:48 AM)
If you can hit .250 during your "slump", that's not bad.

True, but that's not the number that was worrying me. I'm far more concerned about the lack of walks and power so far. It's just something to watch. Far too early to make a judgment on.

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Rangel Ravelo... 25 of his 68 hits with W-S so far are XBH (was 24 of 84 last year). He's got 19 2B in 240 PA, or a pace of 40-50 in a full minor league season. 3 HR in last 10 games. K/PA rate a very reasonable 13.3%. OPS close to .900. And still just 21 in High A, and he missed half of his A ball season last year.

 

His move to 1B makes his road tougher, but the guy can clearly hit.

 

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