Buddy Bell on Courtney Hawkins

[Y2Jimmy0]

Buddy Bell joined Rongey on White Sox weekly today. Rongey asked about Hawkins and I will try to paraphrase what Bell said.

 

Buddy emphasized the shoulder injury a lot. Said he's still coming back from it and mentioned that he has 16 HR's and 47 RBI while missing 1 month of the season. He stated that Hawkins would have over 20 homers and 60 RBi's if he had stayed healthy.

 

He took a shot at people that have said he should be in Kannapolis and mentioned Keith Law by name saying he has no idea what he is talking about.

 

Bell alluded to something that many of us had mentioned. He basically said that Hawkins would learn nothing by heading back down and dominating Kannapolis. He said that part of the plan is to force Hawkins to make the necessary adjustments at Winston Salem because he could continue his bad habits and still dominate a lower level.

 

 

[Jerksticks]

Wow nice info man. This seems like spot-on thinking. I like that he addressed all the people taking the simple solution instead of the thinking man's solution.

[Jake]

I don't love what he said, but I don't know what else I could have expected. I was hoping for some thing I never would have thought of, but it appears to just be what it looks like it is.

[fathom]

Hard to blame that shoulder injury for this season considering his huge K numbers prior to the injury.

[maxjusttyped]

There's nothing wrong with letting a player dominate in a lower level before promoting them. Letting Hawkins continue to strike out in nearly 50% of his AB's does nothing to help his long-term development.

[Chicago White Sox]

There's nothing wrong with letting a player dominate in a lower level before promoting them. Letting Hawkins continue to strike out in nearly 50% of his AB's does nothing to help his long-term development.

The point is if he's dominating at a low level with bad habits, then he's not really developing. While I agree in principle, a 50+% K rate is just mind-boggling and something should probably be done to help Hakwins out whether that's a demotion or a time-out.

[Jerksticks]

I thought I read somewhere or somebody posted that the Sox' minor league philosophy with hitters is to let them do what they do until it's proven that it doesn't work. Then the teaching comes in. Maybe Hawkins, being so young, is pretty bull-headed and needs this extended failure to finally open up to believing in the coaching and the necessity of change.

 

Break you down to build you back up.

 

This could all be bulls*** but it's every bit as reasonable as all the other bulls*** armchair knowitallism.

[maxjusttyped]

The point is if he's dominating at a low level with bad habits, then he's not really developing. While I agree in principle, a 50+% K rate is just mind-boggling and something should probably be done to help Hakwins out whether that's a demotion or a time-out.

If someone's clearly over-matched at a level, he isn't developing, either. There's nothing wrong with letting Hawkins hit .300 with power in Low A before promoting him. Let him prove to you he's ready for a promotion. There's a reason only one HS player from last years draft (Addison Russell) started the year at High A. Even prospects that were clearly superior to Hawkins entering the year such as Correa, Buxton, and Dahl all entered the season at Low A.

 

Regardless, the White Sox deciding Hawkins was ready for High A before the season is a disaster. It's one of the biggest internal scouting mistakes they've made in years.

[Jake]

The difference between Low-A and High-A is miniscule. The problem is Courtney. Let's hope he figures everything out.

[Balta1701]

If someone's clearly over-matched at a level, he isn't developing, either. There's nothing wrong with letting Hawkins hit .300 with power in Low A before promoting him. Let him prove to you he's ready for a promotion. There's a reason only one HS player from last years draft (Addison Russell) started the year at High A. Even prospects that were clearly superior to Hawkins entering the year such as Correa, Buxton, and Dahl all entered the season at Low A.

 

Regardless, the White Sox deciding Hawkins was ready for High A before the season is a disaster. It's one of the biggest internal scouting mistakes they've made in years.

Again, he's not "clearly over-matched". He's run into an issue that he has to work through, but he has still been surprisingly productive despite that issue.

[Balta1701]

The point is if he's dominating at a low level with bad habits, then he's not really developing. While I agree in principle, a 50+% K rate is just mind-boggling and something should probably be done to help Hakwins out whether that's a demotion or a time-out.

And as others have pointed out, his K-rate has improved as the season has gone on. If he's working on improving on the bad habits...then he is actually developing.

[maxjusttyped]

Again, he's not "clearly over-matched". He's run into an issue that he has to work through, but he has still been surprisingly productive despite that issue.

If hitting .194/.268/.436 with a 44.1 K% isn't overmatched, then no player in the history of baseball has ever been overmatched.

[Balta1701]

If hitting .194/.268/.436 with a 44.1 K% isn't overmatched, then no player in the history of baseball has ever been overmatched.

A .730 OPS in high-A? Decent walk numbers, closing in on 20 HR with a good shot at 25?

 

He needs work, but he's not blown away nearly as much as you guys want to pretend.

[Jake]

His wRC+ is 94, which means he's been just short of an average hitter in that league. Parts of his game have been amazingly ugly (contact) while parts of it have been amazingly good (power). Nobody is jumping for joy at how he is playing, but it could be worse

[maxjusttyped]

His wRC+ is 94, which means he's been just short of an average hitter in that league. Parts of his game have been amazingly ugly (contact) while parts of it have been amazingly good (power). Nobody is jumping for joy at how he is playing, but it could be worse

He's been a slightly below average hitter for the league, which is fine, once you consider his age. But once you get into how he's getting that production it becomes concerning. He has the highest K% (among qualified hitters) at any level in organized baseball. It's also worth nothing that K% rises for hitters the further they go up the developmental latter. This is a huge concern. I'm sure you'd be hard pressed to find any successful major leaguer that's had a season where they K'd > 40% of the time at any level.

 

Hopefully I'm wrong, and Hawkins improves his ability to make contact. But so far the results haven't been encouraging.

[Jake]

He's been a slightly below average hitter for the league, which is fine, once you consider his age. But once you get into how he's getting that production it becomes concerning. He has the highest K% (among qualified hitters) at any level in organized baseball. It's also worth nothing that K% rises for hitters the further they go up the developmental latter. This is a huge concern. I'm sure you'd be hard pressed to find any successful major leaguer that's had a season where they K'd > 40% of the time at any level.

 

Hopefully I'm wrong, and Hawkins improves his ability to make contact. But so far the results haven't been encouraging.

 

I think we agree that it has been far from encouraging. I just don't know if panic is the right thing yet. If he goes back to 25% K rate for the rest of the season, his season numbers won't look insane.

 

For some reference, Trayce Thompson is a guy in our own system whose strikeouts have gone down every single year, from insanely high to okay. 36%+ as a 18-19 year old down to 23% this year.

[Jerksticks]

I think we agree that it has been far from encouraging. I just don't know if panic is the right thing yet. If he goes back to 25% K rate for the rest of the season, his season numbers won't look insane.

 

For some reference, Trayce Thompson is a guy in our own system whose strikeouts have gone down every single year, from insanely high to okay. 36%+ as a 18-19 year old down to 23% this year.

This. Nobody likes the Ks. The front office doesn't like them either. It's no secret that a high K rate is bad. But panic? Just seems unfounded at this point. Let's give him a chance to get better.

 

 

[bighurt4life]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/p...id=gallo-001joe

 

 

Considered a top prospect despite his K problems. The reason is that he shows rare tools, tools that you cannot teach someone. Just like Hawkins, lots of power and lots of K's. The only difference is that Gallo is playing in the sally league. If we're having the same discussion this time next year about CH then I'll start to be concerned, but until then I'll consider Buddy Bell's opinion to carry more weight than anything else.

[Balta1701]

This. Nobody likes the Ks. The front office doesn't like them either. It's no secret that a high K rate is bad. But panic? Just seems unfounded at this point. Let's give him a chance to get better.

It's 100% clear what he needs to work on this offseason and this is probably the first time he's hit real difficulties in his career. Let's see what he actually learns from it.

[DirtySox]

larry from SSS has his take on Hakwins up. Can't say I disagree.

 

http://www.southsidesox.com/minors/2013/7/...charlie-leesman

 

Courtney Hawkins is the second-youngest player in the Carolina League and the fifth-youngest overall in the three High-A leagues. So struggles would not be a surprise. But what Hawkins continues to do is more than struggle. It's abject failure.

 

The 13th overall pick in 2012 has a .721 OPS and a .320 wOBA in 259 plate appearances this season. Looking at that, one would think that Hawkins is holding his own against older and more experienced opposition. But going just beyond the superficial to the triple slash line - .190/.266/.455 - the reality begins to be obvious. A high slugging percentage is masking some serious struggles. And when one goes a little deeper and sees a 43.6% strikeout rate, the reality becomes even more pointed. Drilling into the outfielder's splits reveals even more flaws.

 

Prior to the beginning of his month-long DL stint on May 2 for a shoulder injury, the 19-year-old was striking out in basically half of his plate appearances. In June and (so far) in July, he's still striking out an absurd 41% of the time. Hawkins bats right-handed and he's atrocious against same-handed pitching. He's hitting far better in the Dash's power-friendly home park than on the road. I could go on detailing the red flags but you all have better things to do than read it.

 

Bottom line, Hawkins is not just in over his head, he's somehow managed to get below the sea floor. He has little to no pitch recognition and little to no concept of the strike zone. Throw him an ill-located fastball and he can hit it out. But throw him an off-speed pitch of basically any kind or quality and he's useless.

 

This is yet another instance in a long line of overly aggressive minor league assignments the White Sox have thrust upon ill-prepared position player prospects. I thought Jared Mitchell's treatment produced the worst possible results an unnecessarily pushed player could have but I underestimated the White Sox' resolve.

 

I don't know whether it's just a misguided philosophy or an ego that can't/won't admit mistakes or an inability to properly judge the abilities of hitters or a lack of coaching personnel to execute - or all four and more - but it's not working and never has. It's been a decade since the White Sox last produced a position player of any note. Yes, in the development of baseball players, a good process isn't necessarily going to produce a consistently very high success rate. But a decade of total failure is not the product of bad luck. It's bad process. And it needs to stop.

[hammerhead johnson]

It's been a decade since the White Sox last produced a position player of any note

 

K-Dub apologists keep doing their thing, though.

 

Don't Worry, Be Happy was a #1 jam. Damn, if I say it, you can slap me right here.

[southsider2k5]

K-Dub apologists keep doing their thing, though.

 

Don't Worry, Be Happy was a #1 jam. Damn, if I say it, you can slap me right here.

 

Have you got anything to contribute besides trolling and fellating Cub prospects?

[NorthSideSox72]

I agree with Bell that sending him to Kanny does basically no good at this point.

 

I am more concerned that I have seen no indication they are working with him on mechanics and pitch recognition, which everyone (including the Sox I am sure) can see are issues.

 

Maybe they are and we don't know it. Maybe he is uncoachable. Maybe they are waiting for the fall instructs to really tear him down to build him back up. I don't know. But I do have some concerns about what appears to be a too-loose approach by the Sox hitting coaches with guys like Hawkins. Again, I could be wrong - just my impressions.

 

And no, I don't write him off yet.

 

[southsider2k5]

I agree with Bell that sending him to Kanny does basically no good at this point.

 

I am more concerned that I have seen no indication they are working with him on mechanics and pitch recognition, which everyone (including the Sox I am sure) can see are issues.

 

Maybe they are and we don't know it. Maybe he is uncoachable. Maybe they are waiting for the fall instructs to really tear him down to build him back up. I don't know. But I do have some concerns about what appears to be a too-loose approach by the Sox hitting coaches with guys like Hawkins. Again, I could be wrong - just my impressions.

 

And no, I don't write him off yet.

 

They are working on mechanics. Hawkins himself talked about changes they had made in his swing.

[danman31]

And as others have pointed out, his K-rate has improved as the season has gone on. If he's working on improving on the bad habits...then he is actually developing.

That's wrong. His K rate has ballooned back up in July.