fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Pretty sure Danks leads the majors in homers allowed per inning now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 05:39 PM) As usual, someone actually used a stat to say why tey think he's an asset, and that point gets ignored. Ok, what is Danks worth when he is healthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:37 PM) I wouldn't consider Danks an asset. John Danks was the 16th highest WAR pitcher in all of baseball from 2008-2011. He doesn't have to be nearly that good again to have enough value to be considered an asset. Edited July 25, 2013 by Jake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:38 PM) In what world does $15 million a year not matter? The world where you're not trying to move that salary to bring in another $15 million player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:39 PM) Pretty sure Danks leads the majors in homers allowed per inning now Roughly double his career HR/FB. That will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 25, 2013 -> 01:41 AM) The world where you're not trying to move that salary to bring in another $15 million player It's just a lot of money for someone that's going to be a #4 or 5 starter most likely for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:40 PM) Ok, what is Danks worth when he is healthy? Even excluding 2008, $13-17 million in the fangraphs world. $22 mil in 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Teams are just going to start playing Konerko like a lefty pull hitter. Come on PK, go out on a high note! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:42 PM) It's just a lot of money for someone that's going to be a #4 or 5 starter most likely for you. Indeed. If he's his old self, he won't be our 4-5. If not, there are worse expenditures of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 05:40 PM) John Danks was the 16th highest WAR pitcher in all of baseball from 2008-2011. He doesn't have to be nearly that good again to have enough value to be considered an asset. Yeah, and the last 1.5 years? Lets assume we're paying him generally what he was worth between 2008-2011. Is that fair? Why would you gamble that he'll be worth what we're paying him in a best case scenario when a) he hasn't been worth anywhere near that since 2011 and b) we suck? It's like paying $45 million for the chance at a decent prospect two years down the line. Edited July 25, 2013 by iamshack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:39 PM) As usual, someone actually used a stat to say why tey think he's an asset, and that point gets ignored. As usual you put too much stock in some kind of bootleg stat (i.e. BABIP!) and ignore what you're seeing with your eyes. Edited July 25, 2013 by Marty34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:44 PM) As usual you put too much stock in some kind of bootleg stat (i.e. BABIP!) and ignore what you're see with your eyes. Like when you spent a month telling us that Keppinger would never start hitting before he started hitting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:44 PM) Like when you spent a month telling us that Keppinger would never start hitting before he started hitting? Exactly. Do we really want to get in to the stuff you said that was wrong? You and your bootleg stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:43 PM) Yeah, and the last 2.5 years? Lets assume we're paying him generally what he was worth between 2008-2011. Is that fair? Why would you gamble that he'll be worth what we're paying him in a best case scenario when a) he hasn't been worth anywhere near that since 2011 and b) we suck? It's like paying $45 million for the chance at a decent prospect two years down the line. You're acting like "a" is a random occurrence, as if we have no way of knowing when that lack of production will end. We know why he quit producing, too. We have a nice guess for that - next year. We saw this same progression with Jake Peavy where he needed a full offseason of normal activity and health before he came back to normal. Given how much Danks has improved some aspects of his game and we can see his velocity getting closer to normal, it is not unreasonable to think he's going to return to normal. The sucking is meant to be temporary. If he plays out his contract, he'll be here when we don't suck. If we suck longer than intended, the plan is to move him when he's looking like his old self. He won't pitch worse than this, that seems like a fair assumption. Therefore, this is his minimum value and if we're not planning to increase salary, the money isn't a consideration at this point. The same people that would take him off our hands for nothing would rather do that a year from now when there is 15 million less owed to him, too. By then, he might be pitching well enough that the contract looks reasonable again. Edited July 25, 2013 by Jake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:44 PM) As usual you put too much stock in some kind of bootleg stat (i.e. BABIP!) and ignore what you're seeing with your eyes. Bootleg stats? Dude you sound like Hawk now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Jake, you ever hear more about what Ventura meant when speaking about Crain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:51 PM) Bootleg stats? Dude you sound like Hawk now Thats what they are. Statistical analysis has it's place, but just like TWTW it's largely a gimmick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 07:54 PM) Thats what they are. Statistical analysis has it's place, but just like TWTW it's largely a gimmick. The term doesn't even make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:53 PM) Jake, you ever hear more about what Ventura meant when speaking about Crain? The guys posted video links on twitter. http://trib.in/12MvLvx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Dayan's poor pitch selection has turned into an unbelievable ability to make contact on really bad pitches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I don't know if Phegley ultimately pans out, but at the very least, we don't have to watch Tyler Flowers try to hit on a daily basis anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Thought that was gone for Phegley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I think Phegley doesn't really have that much power. He just makes near-perfect contact on a surprisingly consistent basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 05:49 PM) You're acting like "a" is a random occurrence, as if we have no way of knowing when that lack of production will end. We know why he quit producing, too. We have a nice guess for that - next year. We saw this same progression with Jake Peavy where he needed a full offseason of normal activity and health before he came back to normal. Given how much Danks has improved some aspects of his game and we can see his velocity getting closer to normal, it is not unreasonable to think he's going to return to normal. The sucking is meant to be temporary. If he plays out his contract, he'll be here when we don't suck. If we suck longer than intended, the plan is to move him when he's looking like his old self. He won't pitch worse than this, that seems like a fair assumption. Therefore, this is his minimum value and if we're not planning to increase salary, the money isn't a consideration at this point. The same people that would take him off our hands for nothing would rather do that a year from now when there is 15 million less owed to him, too. By then, he might be pitching well enough that the contract looks reasonable again. Why are you taking this huge gamble for no or a very remote upside possibility? The odds of him being an important piece either because we're competitive or because he turns into a valuable asset are remote. Maybe 2 in 10? I don't know why you'd want to spend all the money on those odds when you could take a mulligan. It's just silly. Additionally, he's probably going to be taking the innings of someone we should be developing instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Hawk talking about the Sox messing with Cameron. Bevington was the manager. Hriniak the hitting coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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