Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:05 PM) Why are you taking this huge gamble for no or a very remote upside possibility? The odds of him being an important piece either because we're competitive or because he turns into a valuable asset are remote. Maybe 2 in 10? I don't know why you'd want to spend all the money on those odds when you could take a mulligan. It's just silly. Additionally, he's probably going to be taking the innings of someone we should be developing instead. There is a gamble of letting John Danks pitch for a contender w/ a mid-3's ERA as he is quite liable to do. I think there is a far better chance than 20% that he ends being around a $15 million/year pitcher. Contracts have their setbacks, but in the end, lots of people want a guy like a healthy John Danks. If you want to build your team/farm up, you want to be able to turn him into young players. If you want to be good, you want a battle-tested pitcher on your team. I wouldn't stamp my feet and cry if we let him go in this mythical scenario, but I don't think it's so cut and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Nice timing of Hawk and Stoney bashing the defense and then another Alexei error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:10 PM) Nice timing of Hawk and Stoney bashing the defense and then another Alexei error. Pretty tough error, kind of like Rios getting charged for one last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 When will we see Paulie take a nice, aggressive cut on a fastball and loft it over the LF fence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Danks put up a sub 3.50 ERA once. At best he is paid market value and no reason for us to take the 15 million per year risk to find out if he's even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrockinMT Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I am of the opinion Danks gives up too many homers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I don't hate Kepp, but he's about the last guy I want to see up with a man on first and 2 out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 06:10 PM) There is a gamble of letting John Danks pitch for a contender w/ a mid-3's ERA as he is quite liable to do. I think there is a far better chance than 20% that he ends being around a $15 million/year pitcher. Contracts have their setbacks, but in the end, lots of people want a guy like a healthy John Danks. If you want to build your team/farm up, you want to be able to turn him into young players. If you want to be good, you want a battle-tested pitcher on your team. I wouldn't stamp my feet and cry if we let him go in this mythical scenario, but I don't think it's so cut and dry. When the best scenario is that you basically break even, and the odds of that are low, it's probably not smart to miss out on the chance of taking a mulligan on the deal. Tell me why it is that young players are so desirable again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesoxws05 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Danks has given up a homerun on 17.5 percent of his flyballs. That isn't sustainable. Players tend to cluster around a 10.5 percent rate over larger sample sizes. Trading Danks now would be stupid because you would be trading a player when his value is lowest. It's better to wait this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:19 PM) When the best scenario is that you basically break even, and the odds of that are low, it's probably not smart to miss out on the chance of taking a mulligan on the deal. Tell me why it is that young players are so desirable again? With the TV money going out next year and just normal player salary inflation, it gets easier and easier to outperform the $15 million number as time goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 06:21 PM) With the TV money going out next year and just normal player salary inflation, it gets easier and easier to outperform the $15 million number as time goes on Ok, and why do we need to turn Danks into young players? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:18 PM) I am of the opinion Danks gives up too many homers 15 in 70 innings(before tonite) is a lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:23 PM) Ok, and why do we need to turn Danks into young players? Firstly, we don't have to do that. If you did, it is like most deals - you think the collection of players you receive will be worth more wins than the guy you trade away. Particular to our situation, unless something changes, chances are that a trade of Danks for young (or old? I don't give a s***) bats involves trading from a position of strength to cover a position of need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 06:26 PM) Firstly, we don't have to do that. If you did, it is like most deals - you think the collection of players you receive will be worth more wins than the guy you trade away. Particular to our situation, unless something changes, chances are that a trade of Danks for young (or old? I don't give a s***) bats involves trading from a position of strength to cover a position of need. Oh, for a moment I thought it might have had something to do with money... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 And another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 18 homers in 74 1/3 innings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jul 25, 2013 -> 02:28 AM) 18 homers in 74 1/3 innings Alexei's best bet to homer again this year is get traded to an AL team and face Danks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:27 PM) Oh, for a moment I thought it might have had something to do with money... Money plays a role. Money is meant to buy you certainty. Young players not costing money is meant to offset the risk that they are worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I really hope Danks doesn't have 3 more seasons of a Jaime Navarro type outcome. Not saying he will, I just hope that's not what's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 06:29 PM) Money plays a role. Money is meant to buy you certainty. Young players not costing money is meant to offset the risk that they are worthless. Really? So why would we pay all that money to Danks again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 24, 2013 -> 08:12 PM) Pretty tough error, kind of like Rios getting charged for one last night It was a bad throw, but going to the discussion on PK's defense, that is the type of error he saves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 John's doctor fixed my shoulder in May so I get to ask him about John on a fairly regular basis. He tells me that the most optimistic outcome for John is that roughly August is when he could start to have normal velocity and normal command. He said the surgery is very simple, reinjury risk is low, but recovery takes a bit and he would be surprised if John pitches like his old self before he gets an offseason at normal health. This is where I'm coming from thinking that John will be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 25, 2013 -> 01:32 AM) It was a bad throw, but going to the discussion on PK's defense, that is the type of error he saves. I thought Dunn was solid defensively last year, but he's been horrendous this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 25, 2013 -> 01:31 AM) Really? So why would we pay all that money to Danks again? Yep, ask the Red Sox how nice it is to get a mulligan on bad contracts (last year's trade with Dodgers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Chuck Garfien @ChuckGarfien 5m The last 11 runs John Danks has given up have all come via the home run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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