So, Where is the $ Reallocated Now?

Chicago White Sox · August 1, 2013

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 10:47 AM)

Oh, and to answer the question where the money actually goes, my guess is that the list for the offseason looks something like:

Extend Quintana

Extend Reed

Extend Beckham (No reason to go to arbitration for another year, he's worth risking something like $3/15 guaranteed on with an option/buyout)

Maybe extend Santiago

Get all those guys locked up, and then:

Sign at least 1, more likely 2-3 more veteran bullpen arms, including at least 1 lefty.

Fix the **** bench. This step probably will involve bringing in a few guys (like Salty as I noted in the last post) who can contribute, maybe do several things, and can do those things well enough to actually get playing time. Guys coming off bad seasons or injuries would be idea.

Is there even a reason to extend Quintana yet? He's not even arbitration eligible until 2016. Reed & Santiago make more sense to extend IMO, but honestly, signing any of them to extensions would have a minimal impact on our 2014 payroll since they're all stil pre-arb.

Beckham will want more than 3/$15M to buy out a free agency year, probably more like 3/$21M. Viciedo & De Aza are also arb-eligible, but I believe that's it for our team. Not a lot of guys getting big raises either.

I still don't see where are still money is going next year. I'd be shocked if they didn't make at least one decent signing. We don't have a 1B for next year so I could really see Morales or Hart signed to fill that hole as long as it's a somewhat short-term deal (2-3 years max.)

Balta1701 · August 1, 2013

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 02:11 PM)

Is there even a reason to extend Quintana yet? He's not even arbitration eligible until 2016. Reed & Santiago make more sense to extend IMO, but honestly, signing any of them to extensions would have a minimal impact on our 2014 payroll since they're all stil pre-arb.

Beckham will want more than 3/$15M to buy out a free agency year, probably more like 3/$21M. Viciedo & De Aza are also arb-eligible, but I believe that's it for our team. Not a lot of guys getting big raises either.

I still don't see where are still money is going next year. I'd be shocked if they didn't make at least one decent signing. We don't have a 1B for next year so I could really see Morales or Hart signed to fill that hole as long as it's a somewhat short-term deal (2-3 years max.)

Extending Quintana would be done for the same reason as extending Sale...to get ahead of the curve. On top of that, we actually have the money to do it now. Get it done, build in a bunch of option years, and leave that not to chance.

Reed and Santiago are a year closer to arbitration so it makes more sense to try to get them done. And if anyone is interested in trading for them at any point, having them signed could well make that easier rather than harder.

Viciedo and De Aza I would not offer longer-term extensions to right now.

Beckham, if the Sox have to go to $20 million I'd consider it. He's shown enough this year to motivate risking the money on him continuing to improve.

I still think there will be a couple relief pitchers signed.

Balta1701 · August 1, 2013

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 02:11 PM)

I still don't see where are still money is going next year. I'd be shocked if they didn't make at least one decent signing. We don't have a 1B for next year so I could really see Morales or Hart signed to fill that hole as long as it's a somewhat short-term deal (2-3 years max.)

Oh, and the other reason why I no longer expect a 1b to be added is Garcia.

The Sox are sitting now on 4 guys who can be starting OF's next year as well as an expensive DH. Garcia is destroying AAA this year so I don't see why he should be in AAA to start next year. That means someone is going to have to move. They didn't trade away the RF or CF so far. If they trade one of those guys, great, then that makes sense, but so far no one seems to have been willing to pay the price for those guys.

That means, to give playing time to the guys who need playing time, 1b is the only opening.

Personally I'd be more interested in fixing the bench and finding platoon guys right now than signing a 1b. Until Rios or De Aza are traded, I'd expect Viciedo to be the 1b next year.

beautox · August 1, 2013

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 10:47 AM)

Oh, and to answer the question where the money actually goes, my guess is that the list for the offseason looks something like:

Extend Quintana

Extend Reed

Extend Beckham (No reason to go to arbitration for another year, he's worth risking something like $3/15 guaranteed on with an option/buyout)

Maybe extend Santiago

Get all those guys locked up, and then:

Sign at least 1, more likely 2-3 more veteran bullpen arms, including at least 1 lefty.

Fix the **** bench. This step probably will involve bringing in a few guys (like Salty as I noted in the last post) who can contribute, maybe do several things, and can do those things well enough to actually get playing time. Guys coming off bad seasons or injuries would be idea.

I agree I think this offseason we see Hahn extend the likes of Quintana and Santiago, maybe Beckham and maybe Reed.

I would like to see offers look something like this:

Quintana: 14:$750K, 15:$3.75M, 16:$6.75M, 17:$9.75M, 18:$12 club option ($1M buyout), 19:$12M club option

Santiago because he is a year older less consistent and I'm pretty sure Pre-Arb3 nexy year: 14:$1M, 15:$1.5M, 16:$2.8M, 17:$4.8M, 18:$7M club option ($.500K buyout), 19:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout)

Beckham a near identical deal to Carlos Gomez if he finishes the year strong and healthy: 14:$7M, 15:$8M, 16:$9M 17:$12M($1M buyout)

I don't think the sox should sign reed unless you can lock him down for something similar to what we did with Santos: 14:$1M, 15:$2.75M, 16:$3.75M, 17:$6M club option, 18:$8M club option, 19:$8.75M club option ($0.75M buyouts for each option) or Soria: 14:$1M, 15:$3M, 16:$4M, 17:$6M club option, 18:$8M club option, 19:$8.75M.

Like you said sign two bullpen arms, maybe bring back Thornton.

If Reed doesn't want to sign an extension I would move him, there is no need for a "proven closer" on a rebuilding team that might be a dark horse for the second wild card next year.

This offseason move one of Rios or De Aza. Which ever will get you the better return (preferably Rios because you will save more money), move Ramirez as well the strength of the sox system(if it can be called that, is middle infielders: Semien, Sanchez, Johnson, Anderson and corner outfielders). What the sox need going forward since they plan on playing Garcia in CF till he can no longer handle that and moving him to RF is corner infielders specifically 3B.

The Dark horse

Even though this season has been incredibly painful to watch the sox have the financial flexibility and pitching staff to turn it around very quickly. I'm looking forward to this discussion, mind you there are a lot of "Ifs". In 2012 the AL wild card's each accounted for on average 38.3WAR, the Division leaders 42.4WAR and cumulatively between both the AL and NL the wild cards average was 41.28WAR and the division average was 43.6WAR.

The Rotation

Between Sale, Quintana and Santiago I have a strong feeling that all three of them are going to put up WARs in this neighborhood next year:6,5,4 assign the values to whom ever your favorite is. Just for reference this year Sale is on pace to finish with 5.5, Quintana 3.5 and Santiago 1.6. I feel once Danks is removed 18months for surgery and is fully healthy he will put a 3WAR campaign. Whomever the sox decide to go with with Johnson or Rienzo will be capable of putting up a 1.5WAR, essentially they need to be what Yovani Gallardo is projected to finish at(167.0IP, 7.28K/9, 3.51BB/9 4.70ERA) this year. Add it up and the rotation gives you 19.5WAR.

Around the Diamond

DH - Adam Dunn, I don't believe the sox will be able to move him through waivers this year or in the offseason if the sox are out of the race next year and he is performing I think he becomes an attractive target. Lets say he has an regular adam dunn year .215/.354/.465 1.5WAR

C - Josh Phegley, I'm not alarmed he hasn't drawn a walk yet and i think he has shown he is average to slightly below behind the dish. I think he will get better in time, from a hitter stand point he reminds me of Jason LaRue or John Buck. .230/.321/.422 1.7WAR

1B - Corey Hart/James Loney/Andy Wilkins - I feel the sox would be best served not going after Loney since the Keppinger experience went over so well. Hart is injured so he might come cheap on a 2 year deal seeing how he will be 32. But having said all that since we're "rebuilding" the sox would be best served to see what they have in 24 year old LHH 1B Andy Wilkins. Whoever they go with .270/.358/.419 1.6WAR

2B - Gordon Beckham, if this is how he is going to be going forward i think he has the potential to be a 2.5WAR player

SS - Marcus Semien, hes on the fast track just got promoted to AAA should be very telling how he holds up. Sox trade alexei in the off season and Marcus starts '14, 262./.341/.387 1.2WAR

3B - Conor Gillaspie, he looks to finish the year out at about 1.1WAR, personally i've stated my opinion on this forum on a number of ocasions i think he takes the step forward next year. .263/.330/.422 1.4WAR

LF - Dayan Viciedo, I'm encouraged by his platoon splits and how July went for him i think he finishes the year strong and he finally breaks out at the ripe old age of 25 .269/.321/.468 1.9WAR

CF - Avisail Garcia, he reminds me of three players in particular: Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez and Jose Guillen, I think he hits the ground running with full playing time .260/.305/.463 with solid defense in CF 3.1WAR

RF - De Aza/Rios .275/.331/.425 2WAR

Bullpen

CL - Addison Reed, i already explained my reasoning above 1.7WAR

SU - Nate Jones, I'm glad the sox stuck with him this season, his stuff seems more than capable of closing out games 1.5WAR

Remainder of the bullpen i think is capable of putting up .5-1WARif not a little more.

Bench

This is an area to address i think this is a literal replacement level group if we go with Flowers, Wells, Morel and Danks.

Add it all up and we're at 40.6WAR. enough to possibly scrape into the post season as a wild card and just for reference the '05 white sox had a team WAR of 42.2

southsider2k5 · August 2, 2013

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 10:41 AM)

Just to remind, teams can't do this any more. There's really diminishing returns on how many scouts you send to see the same 3-4 players, and spending on international players is now capped.

Realize that with our horrible record, our cap number will be going up a lot in both the international and amateur drafts.

The Cubs held the #2 spot in the draft and had a total cap number of about $10.5 million. The Sox was 5.3 million. Internationally they got about $4.5 million, we got about $2.7 million. All told, if we spend our allotments, we will be spending about $7 million more than this year.

caulfield12 · August 2, 2013

QUOTE (beautox @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 04:09 PM)