Post Deadline Top 10

[NorthSideSox72]

It seems like you are making lists for what someone has done, instead of projecting what they are capable of doing

David Cook Syndrome.

 

Mind you, I liked David and did always wonder why he wasn't given a longer look... but evaluating prospects is, as Jake said, a balance between talent and performance. A raw guy like Hawkins, you have to know he's got a long way to go to translate his tools into skills. No one anticipated he'd have THIS much trouble, but, you can't just look at performance, especially at the lower levels, and even more so with raw talent out of high school.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

More specifically, he would not be in my top 15.

 

 

Sorry but that's just stupid and insane in my opinion. It's not always just about numbers. It's about what a player projects to be and his floor and ceiling. Now could Hawkins completely bust and not make it out of High A? I guess that is possible. It's just as possible that he figures it out and becomes an All Star RF for the White Sox years down the road. He still has the highest ceiling in the entire system. Whether or not he reaches that is up to him but not having him in the top 10-15 prospects in a bottom 5 farm system in baseball is just ludicrous.

[Vance Law]

Here's my question, if Semien continues to play at a high level, how is he not a top 5 prospect in the Southern League? And if he's a top 5 prospect in one of the three AA leagues, how is he not a top 100 prospect? Based on that logic, he has to be top 3 in our system, because only Garcia and possibly Johnson would make it right now.

 

I agree. He leads the Southern League in hits, runs, total bases, walks, OBP, OPS and is top 10 in everything else including HR, RBI, SB. Fangraphs has a weekly feature where they highlight the most noteworthy minor leaguers who basically have not yet appeared on a top 100 list. No player in the minors has appeared more often than Semien.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-...e-prospects-14/

[Chicago White Sox]

I agree. He leads the Southern League in hits, runs, total bases, walks, OBP, OPS and is top 10 in everything else including HR, RBI, SB. Fangraphs has a weekly feature where they highlight the most noteworthy minor leaguers who basically have not yet appeared on a top 100 list. No player in the minors has appeared more often than Semien.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-...e-prospects-14/

What's funny is that if Semien was in another organization, we'd all be enamored with him. Look at how much love Garin Cecchini got around here when his name was brought up in hypothetical trade talks. Look at their slash lines:

 

Cecchini: .316/.417/.444/.861

Semien: .290/.420/.483/.903

 

Semien is clearly outproducing Cecchini with the exception of batting average. Now check out their BB & K rates and BABIPs:

 

Cecchini: 14.1%/18.6%/.392

Semien: 17.4%/13.7%/.317

 

Semien has superior plate discipline and clearly Cecchini has been pretty lucky this year. Now add 20 SBs vs Cecchini's 5 and the fact that Semien's plays a premium position and everything would suggest Semien is the better prospect. I'm sure someone would site the 7 month age difference in favor of Cecchini, but it just blows my mind that one guy is considered a top 75 prospect in baseball by this board and the other couldn't even crack our mid-season top 10 list.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Chicago White Sox

[oldsox]

It seems like you are making lists for what someone has done, instead of projecting what they are capable of doing

Probably true, Jose. After all, this is a very subjective exercise. I can see the difference between projecting future performance and hoping for future performance. I just wish I had a suggestion on what to do with Hawkins, other than sending him to Kanny three months ago. But that might not have helped either.

[oldsox]

Sorry but that's just stupid and insane in my opinion. It's not always just about numbers. It's about what a player projects to be and his floor and ceiling. Now could Hawkins completely bust and not make it out of High A? I guess that is possible. It's just as possible that he figures it out and becomes an All Star RF for the White Sox years down the road. He still has the highest ceiling in the entire system. Whether or not he reaches that is up to him but not having him in the top 10-15 prospects in a bottom 5 farm system in baseball is just ludicrous.

Stupid, insane, and ludicrous.....I can think of a couple of Sox prospects who, in my opinion, have a better chance of reaching the majors than does Hawkins, and they don't show up on anyone's list. But that's just me. When I see a young player constantly improving, I see a good prospect. Hawkins is doing the opposite, and I don't know why.

[Palehosefan]

I'm a little surprised nobody has Semien as our #1. He gets better at each level and is seemingly a five tool player.

 

Garcia's lack of walks really temper my high hopes for him. He's still doing great in AAA at barely 22, I just don't know sustainable it is in his future.

[caulfield12]

I'm a little surprised nobody has Semien as our #1. He gets better at each level and is seemingly a five tool player.

 

Garcia's lack of walks really temper my high hopes for him. He's still doing great in AAA at barely 22, I just don't know sustainable it is in his future.

 

 

Because he's not a scout's version of a five tool player at the major league level.

 

He does everything well, he's got good speed but not great, good but not great power, he's a good hitter but he's not a 300+ guy (yet, sustained for a full season)...good defense (range/arm) but not anything that's going to light up the scouting reporters or make your jaw drop.

 

The best thing about him to me is 1) his versatility, 2) his BB/K and contact rate, which is seemingly non-existent for most of our toolsy guys.

[danman31]

I'm sure someone would site the 7 month age difference in favor of Cecchini, but it just blows my mind that one guy is considered a top 75 prospect in baseball by this board and the other couldn't even crack our mid-season top 10 list.

In fairness, Semien's buzz started in July after the midseason list came out.

[southsider2k5]

David Cook Syndrome.

 

Mind you, I liked David and did always wonder why he wasn't given a longer look... but evaluating prospects is, as Jake said, a balance between talent and performance. A raw guy like Hawkins, you have to know he's got a long way to go to translate his tools into skills. No one anticipated he'd have THIS much trouble, but, you can't just look at performance, especially at the lower levels, and even more so with raw talent out of high school.

 

I went with Jeff Bajenaru, but still good call.

 

[southsider2k5]

What's funny is that if Semien was in another organization, we'd all be enamored with him. Look at how much love Garin Cecchini got around here when his name was brought up in hypothetical trade talks. Look at their slash lines:

 

Cecchini: .316/.417/.444/.861

Semien: .290/.420/.483/.903

 

Semien is clearly outproducing Cecchini with the exception of batting average. Now check out their BB & K rates and BABIPs:

 

Cecchini: 14.1%/18.6%/.392

Semien: 17.4%/13.7%/.317

 

Semien has superior plate discipline and clearly Cecchini has been pretty lucky this year. Now add 20 SBs vs Cecchini's 5 and the fact that Semien's plays a premium position and everything would suggest Semien is the better prospect. I'm sure someone would site the 7 month age difference in favor of Cecchini, but it just blows my mind that one guy is considered a top 75 prospect in baseball by this board and the other couldn't even crack our mid-season top 10 list.

 

The question is one of ceiling. Is there room for Semien to get better and be able to be a major leaguer? A lot of guys can hit at AA, but that doesn't mean they have any chance of hitting major league pitching.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Stupid, insane, and ludicrous.....I can think of a couple of Sox prospects who, in my opinion, have a better chance of reaching the majors than does Hawkins, and they don't show up on anyone's list. But that's just me. When I see a young player constantly improving, I see a good prospect. Hawkins is doing the opposite, and I don't know why.

 

He's the youngest guy at his level. He is there because he murdered his age appropriate level. You push a guy up until he struggles, then you work with him to fix it. That's how it works. If he was mashing rookie ball again this year, he'd be wasting his time building habits that won't play at a higher level.

 

If he repeats the level next year and looks the same, then it's time to worry, but you're off-base in your expectations of the player development process if you are knocking Hawkins right now based on nothing but his numbers.

[Eminor3rd]

I'm a little surprised nobody has Semien as our #1. He gets better at each level and is seemingly a five tool player.

 

Garcia's lack of walks really temper my high hopes for him. He's still doing great in AAA at barely 22, I just don't know sustainable it is in his future.

 

I think people are just waiting for the other shoe to drop on Semien. When you break out, you get attention, but then you have to sustain ti a bit to show it is for real. He'll be higher in lists going into next year, and then if he continues to rake, people will be talking about him as #1.

[Eminor3rd]

The question is one of ceiling. Is there room for Semien to get better and be able to be a major leaguer? A lot of guys can hit at AA, but that doesn't mean they have any chance of hitting major league pitching.

 

This is true as well. Semien is succeeding with a very advanced approach, which means what he's doing now essentially needs to play all the way up the ladder. If he hits a ceiling and struggles, there's not a whole lot they can teach him to make the most of his skills.

 

I agree on Garcia -- I'm extremely skeptical that he can learn to recognize pitches well enough to be good, but there's no denying he has a high ceiling, because he's managed to become a monster at AAA solely on his tools and a tee ball-level hitting approach. He's high on the lists because people are imagining what he could do if he could learn to be a professional hitter.

[Eminor3rd]

I still don't see why you guys have Hawkins rated so high. Not even close to top 10 IMO. Fast forward to one year from now.....If he has similar numbers then, will you still rank him in Top Ten? Not me.

 

lol wat

[Jake]

You don't have to have a high BB rate or low K rate to have good enough pitch recognition. If a guy is hitting exceptionally well, all signs point to his pitch recognition being very good and his strategy simply being very aggressive

[beautox]

In fairness, Semien's buzz started in July after the midseason list came out.

I don't agree with that, a number of posters here we're following him closely in late May, myself included, I would say that is where his "buzz" began.

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't agree with that, a number of posters here we're following him closely in late May, myself included, I would say that is where his "buzz" began.

He wasnt really sky-rocketing like he is now, until July. He's been on the radar for sure before then - I had him at #11 when we started compiling our mid-season lists in late June. So it depends on your definition of "buzz".

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

You don't have to have a high BB rate or low K rate to have good enough pitch recognition. If a guy is hitting exceptionally well, all signs point to his pitch recognition being very good and his strategy simply being very aggressive

 

In AAA, where he faces fringe talent with fringe stuff and fringe control. It goes beyond k/BB rates -- his career O-Swing in the majors is 41%. That's insanely high. When guys can locate sliders and advance scouts are telling them exactly where Avisail can't hit them, he will need to learn to lay off of them. Just ask Dayan Viciedo.

[Vance Law]

I think people are just waiting for the other shoe to drop on Semien. When you break out, you get attention, but then you have to sustain ti a bit to show it is for real.

 

He was 5th in OPS in the Carolina League last year while playing shortstop.

 

Wrongly, all the attention was diverted to Carlos Sanchez,- a year younger, perhaps a slicker fielder- a singles hitter whose batting average was driven by an unsustainable BABIP. Sanchez' ceiling seems to me to be the 2012-2013 crappy version of Alexei Ramirez.

 

[Jake]

Carlos Sanchez is not dead as a prospect. He's very young and is dealing with a challenge assignment now. Let's give him a year or two.

[NorthSideSox72]

He was 5th in OPS in the Carolina League last year while playing shortstop.

 

Wrongly, all the attention was diverted to Carlos Sanchez,- a year younger, perhaps a slicker fielder- a singles hitter whose batting average was driven by an unsustainable BABIP. Sanchez' ceiling seems to me to be the 2012-2013 crappy version of Alexei Ramirez.

Wrongly? Come on now, he gave all kinds of reasons to be optimistic, and he wasn't just "a year younger". He was a year younger, at a higher level, where he was THE youngest player in all of AAA going into this year. And yes, he is probably a better defender.

 

At this point Semien is on par with Sanchez prospect-wise and maybe a little better, but your dismissive idea about Sanchez' "attention" last year is nonsense.

 

[Vance Law]

Wrongly? Come on now, he gave all kinds of reasons to be optimistic, and he wasn't just "a year younger". He was a year younger, at a higher level, where he was THE youngest player in all of AAA going into this year. And yes, he is probably a better defender.

 

At this point Semien is on par with Sanchez prospect-wise and maybe a little better, but your dismissive idea about Sanchez' "attention" last year is nonsense.

 

My point wasn't that Sanchez wrongly got attention, but that it was disproportionate. Semien and Sanchez both started in A+. Semien ultimately had a better offensive season. Sanchez got promoted to AA and hit an unsustainably high number of singles for a month. For that Sanchez was ranked our #2 prospect and Semien around #15. That seemed out of whack. It seems even more out of whack now.

 

I would say the same about any prospect who doesn't walk a ton and has only hit 3 homers in almost 1600 PA's- he needs to pretty much win the batting title to be very worthwhile offensively.

[Chicago White Sox]

At this point Semien is on par with Sanchez prospect-wise and maybe a little better, but your dismissive idea about Sanchez' "attention" last year is nonsense.

What?? Semien is a way better prospect than Sanchez. Even if he's a lesser defensive player, his offensive game is much more complete and his ceiling is much higher than Sanchez's because he actually has some power. I don't know how this is even debatable.

 

Also, I'm a big fan of Sanchez, picked him as my sleeper prospect prior to last year, but his 2012 season was inflated by an unsustainable BABIP.

[Chicago White Sox]

My point wasn't that Sanchez wrongly got attention, but that it was disproportionate. Semien and Sanchez both started in A+. Semien ultimately had a better offensive season. Sanchez got promoted to AA and hit an unsustainably high number of singles for a month. For that Sanchez was ranked our #2 prospect and Semien around #15. That seemed out of whack. It seems even more out of whack now.

 

I would say the same about any prospect who doesn't walk a ton and has only hit 3 homers in almost 1600 PA's- he needs to pretty much win the batting title to be very worthwhile offensively.

The only thing I disagree about is Sanchez's walk rate. I think a 7.5% BB rate is pretty damn good for a 20 year from Latin America.