Rick Hahn on McNeil and Spiegel Show

[Chisoxfn]

Look up and down the lineup and look at the OBP's these guys are putting out. Who the hell could possibly win with this s*** lineup? The defense and miscues, sure we have every right to be mad at that, but I don't know how to evaluate that since RV did a hell of a job last year on the fundementals and I don't know how it could all go to s*** so quickly. I'm just perplexed and think this has more to do with the fact that when we went into the tubes, the veteran leaders kind of just gave up and thats why I think it is nice to move someone like Rios, etc, and kind of clear house.

 

I'm just assuming things though. I'm not in the lockeroom so I have no earthly idea what happened, but sometimes, when s*** goes bad, it stays bad till you can hit the reset button in the offseason. All I care about is the development of our young players and both Beckham and Viciedo have taken steps forward and our young arms have done a good job. That is what gets me excited. Now its about finding more young talent to go with them and then supplementing that with some solid veteran leadership and presence.

[Dick Allen]

The White Sox don't get on base very often. Getting the team's overall OBP to a respectable level is going to take a long time considering they really don't have many if any high OBP guys on their roster or in their system, and when guys do get called up, they unfortunately tend to struggle initially. The best way to offset low OBP is with power. Power and pitching (with defense being an extension of pitching) will win.

[Balta1701]

The White Sox don't get on base very often. Getting the team's overall OBP to a respectable level is going to take a long time considering they really don't have many if any high OBP guys on their roster or in their system, and when guys do get called up, they unfortunately tend to struggle initially. The best way to offset low OBP is with power. Power and pitching (with defense being an extension of pitching) will win.

Part of the problem also is that we have a number of guys who also need to hit better. When teams know that they can get guys like Viciedo, Phegley, Gillaspie, Beckham out within the zone, they're unlikely to put themselves in position to work a walk because the pitcher can just go after them. Whether people like him or not, pitchers try not to make a mistake to Adam Dunn because they know he can hurt the pitcher. Pitchers aren't nearly as scared of the other guys.

 

And again, Konerko suddenly becoming useless this year really hurts as well, because he was another legitimately scary guy in that lineup.

 

If we can have some success in turning guys into hitters, like we're doing with Beckham now, that will improve the team OBP a lot and not just from getting more hits. But the .248 we're hitting on the year, 10th in the AL, and .379 we're slugging on the year, 12th in the AL, feed back into that OBP line too.

[greg775]

Look up and down the lineup and look at the OBP's these guys are putting out. Who the hell could possibly win with this s*** lineup? The defense and miscues, sure we have every right to be mad at that, but I don't know how to evaluate that since RV did a hell of a job last year on the fundementals and I don't know how it could all go to s*** so quickly. I'm just perplexed and think this has more to do with the fact that when we went into the tubes, the veteran leaders kind of just gave up and thats why I think it is nice to move someone like Rios, etc, and kind of clear house.

 

I'm just assuming things though. I'm not in the lockeroom so I have no earthly idea what happened, but sometimes, when s*** goes bad, it stays bad till you can hit the reset button in the offseason. All I care about is the development of our young players and both Beckham and Viciedo have taken steps forward and our young arms have done a good job. That is what gets me excited. Now its about finding more young talent to go with them and then supplementing that with some solid veteran leadership and presence.

 

I'm perplexed too. That's the word I got out of your post.

Even in the rare games we compete like Games 2 and 3 vs. Cleveland, suddenly our bullpen implodes and we lose late. Reed gets bombed yesterday. Then Sale finally has a horrible game today, the offense musters about 5 hits and we get boatraced again.

Frankly I don't see how they sell 1,000 season tickets for next year. If things don't change drastically we'll be out of it on April 30.

 

I guess I'm going to assume our sudden lack of power ruined the offense completely and the pitching is great on paper but some nights actually sucks as well.

Edited August 1, 2013 by greg775

[Marty34]

The Sox are going to win with pitching and power. OBP is not part of their blueprint. 12TH in league in homers at the cell is unacceptable

[GreenSox]

Part of the problem also is that we have a number of guys who also need to hit better.

I agree. That's a lot of the problem with the OBPs. Just throw strikes at them and they get themselves out. Can't walk on balls over the plate. T

[Jake]

The 2005 White Sox were 17th in MLB in wRC+. This year's team is 29th. We were 8th in 2004.

 

We are currently 28th in UBR (ultimate baserunning, which assesses the amount runs earned/given up on the bases via speed, stolen bases, blunders, etc). We were 12th in 2005. 16th in 2004.

 

The 2005 club led baseball in pitching WAR. We are third in baseball this year. We were 17th in 2004.

 

In 2005, we were 8th in team UZR. This year, we're 23rd (worth mentioning we were 10th last year, so there is a reason to believe we can field a decent fielding club). 5th in 2004.

 

We have the pitching it takes to win a WS. We don't have the position players.

 

The players who have cost us most defensively, per UZR: Dunn, De Aza, Viciedo, Konerko, Keppinger, Beckham.

 

As you make Dunn your DH and eventually get rid of him, we should improve defense at that position. Konerko also gone. Crazy that we've given away well over twice as many runs with 1st baseman defense than any other position, relative to the average defenders at those positions. I think De Aza has had a weird season and we can reasonably assume he improves defensively, since he has been an average centerfielder throughout the rest of his career. Viciedo was better last year as well and I think he will continue to just be a slightly negative LF. Keppinger is not going to continue to play much second base for us, where he's cost us the most runs. Beckham has never been looked upon kindly by UZR, but his poor defensive play when he came off the DL has dropped it much lower than normal. I'd expect that to pick back up.

 

Worst baserunners, per UBR: Konerko, Keppinger, Dunn, Flowers

 

This entire stat is weighed down by PK, who's had one of the worst UBR seasons I've ever seen. Keppinger is well below career norms, not that anyone here would shed a tear if he were moved. Dunn is slow. Flowers won't be running the bases for us much in the future.

 

Worst hitters, per wRC+: Keppinger, Phegley, Gimenez, Flowers, Ramirez, Konerko

 

Keppinger's season has been really dreadful. The Phegley/Gimenez/Flowers trio has been really bad and Flowers has been the best of the bunch. I think we're all hopeful and somewhat confident that Phegley eventually outproduces all of them and maybe by a great deal. Let's hope. Alexei is Alexei - his offense among shortstops isn't all that bad, 17th out of 26 SS w/ 250 PA's and is of course leading our team in WAR on the strength of his defense. Paulie sucks, I think you see a theme here.

 

I think as we break it down, we see where to seek improvement. We need to get Dunn off first base where his defense is nearly canceling out his offense. We need Paulie to retire. Keppinger has to either be his old self, go, or ride the pine. We need production out of the catching position. Those are the most efficient places to improve the team.

 

Unfortunately, our top prospect plays the same position as the guy tied for the lead on our team in WAR. This is why you can't simply dump Rios, you need to try to move Rios' production to another position(s). Avisail can be pretty good in RF and it won't improve our team because we have to subtract our best player to get Avisail out there.

Edited August 1, 2013 by Jake

[greg775]

Did Hahn say the word "embarrassed" in the interview? I'd like if he said they were all embarrassed at this year's product.

[Eminor3rd]

The 2005 White Sox were 17th in MLB in wRC+. This year's team is 29th. We were 8th in 2004.

 

We are currently 28th in UBR (ultimate baserunning, which assesses the amount runs earned/given up on the bases via speed, stolen bases, blunders, etc). We were 12th in 2005. 16th in 2004.

 

The 2005 club led baseball in pitching WAR. We are third in baseball this year. We were 17th in 2004.

 

In 2005, we were 8th in team UZR. This year, we're 23rd (worth mentioning we were 10th last year, so there is a reason to believe we can field a decent fielding club). 5th in 2004.

 

We have the pitching it takes to win a WS. We don't have the position players.

 

The players who have cost us most defensively, per UZR: Dunn, De Aza, Viciedo, Konerko, Keppinger, Beckham.

 

As you make Dunn your DH and eventually get rid of him, we should improve defense at that position. Konerko also gone. Crazy that we've given away well over twice as many runs with 1st baseman defense than any other position, relative to the average defenders at those positions. I think De Aza has had a weird season and we can reasonably assume he improves defensively, since he has been an average centerfielder throughout the rest of his career. Viciedo was better last year as well and I think he will continue to just be a slightly negative LF. Keppinger is not going to continue to play much second base for us, where he's cost us the most runs. Beckham has never been looked upon kindly by UZR, but his poor defensive play when he came off the DL has dropped it much lower than normal. I'd expect that to pick back up.

 

Worst baserunners, per UBR: Konerko, Keppinger, Dunn, Flowers

 

This entire stat is weighed down by PK, who's had one of the worst UBR seasons I've ever seen. Keppinger is well below career norms, not that anyone here would shed a tear if he were moved. Dunn is slow. Flowers won't be running the bases for us much in the future.

 

Worst hitters, per wRC+: Keppinger, Phegley, Gimenez, Flowers, Ramirez, Konerko

 

Keppinger's season has been really dreadful. The Phegley/Gimenez/Flowers trio has been really bad and Flowers has been the best of the bunch. I think we're all hopeful and somewhat confident that Phegley eventually outproduces all of them and maybe by a great deal. Let's hope. Alexei is Alexei - his offense among shortstops isn't all that bad, 17th out of 26 SS w/ 250 PA's and is of course leading our team in WAR on the strength of his defense. Paulie sucks, I think you see a theme here.

 

I think as we break it down, we see where to seek improvement. We need to get Dunn off first base where his defense is nearly canceling out his offense. We need Paulie to retire. Keppinger has to either be his old self, go, or ride the pine. We need production out of the catching position. Those are the most efficient places to improve the team.

 

Unfortunately, our top prospect plays the same position as the guy tied for the lead on our team in WAR. This is why you can't simply dump Rios, you need to try to move Rios' production to another position(s). Avisail can be pretty good in RF and it won't improve our team because we have to subtract our best player to get Avisail out there.

 

 

Nice post

[The Ginger Kid]

It will be interesting to see which, if any, veteran they will bring in to sort of lead the clubhouse, set the tone, etc., once the current crew (Konerko/Dunn/Rios) are gone. I think Danks can set the tone with the staff...he's learned from guys like Buehrle and Peavy. And Sale seems more mature than his age, and a grinder. John Buck's a guy with a good rep, and so is Coco Crisp. He did a lot for those young guys in Oakland. Hunter Pence is another guy who seems to thrive in that role. Anyone think AJ could be that guy?

[Jake]

Position by position WAR rankings for White Sox (this encompasses the best metrics for batting, baserunning, and fielding):

 

First number is 2013, second number is 2-year average for positions where we have had players returning from last year

 

C - 27th

 

1B - 28th / 17th

 

2B - 29th / 28th

 

SS - 13th / 14th

 

3B - 29th

 

RF - 18th / 15th

 

CF - 22nd / 22nd

 

LF - 20th / 23rd

 

DH - 18th (out of 18 teams with qualifying amount of PA) / 7th out of 21

 

Here we see that our outfield and shortstop is definitely our strength, 3B/2B have been consistent problems. The biggest changes for this year compared to the 2-year average are the 1B/DH combo and of course the dropoff in catching is clear to us after AJ's career year.

 

We still see the need for change in 1B/DH spots here, with PK in particular really hurting the team. Dunn should be able to shine in a DH role for as long as he's around. Keppinger has really dragged down our production at 2B and 3B this year while Gordon/Conor have not been good enough to balance that out. Catching has been bad.

 

Want to start winning? Get producers at 1B, 2B, 3B, C. Now...how to do that? Because it seems hard at first glance. Well, it seems to me that Phegley turning into a good player would be a great first step. After that, you need Gordon to stay hot and keep Keppinger off of his position. Then, you either need Conor to play over his head and be a league average hitter (and, again, keep Kepp away or have Kep start hitting again) or get a new face over at 3B. We need a new face at 1B as well.

 

It would also help if Dayan, who's been carrying our LF'ers to that mediocre ranking, could start to rake and improve our standing in that spot. De Aza could stand to simply repeat his defensive effort from last year to raise his own value. Rios is probably not a big concern...he won't carry us to having the best RF production, but we won't have bad production either.

 

Ideally, you turn Rios into a producer at one of these weaker positions via trade. Then you hope Avisail can give us similar production in RF.

 

The indispensable character, it seems to me, is Alexei. I didn't expect to think that.

Edited August 1, 2013 by Jake

[Balta1701]

It will be interesting to see which, if any, veteran they will bring in to sort of lead the clubhouse, set the tone, etc., once the current crew (Konerko/Dunn/Rios) are gone. I think Danks can set the tone with the staff...he's learned from guys like Buehrle and Peavy. And Sale seems more mature than his age, and a grinder. John Buck's a guy with a good rep, and so is Coco Crisp. He did a lot for those young guys in Oakland. Hunter Pence is another guy who seems to thrive in that role. Anyone think AJ could be that guy?

No I think AJ is a terrible idea. We've committed to playing young guys there, we should play the young guys. Phegley should be the starter. Flowers, I dunno, he's still actually not a terrible backup option and still has plenty of room to improve, but the downside is that he hits from the same side of the plate as Phegley. A LH hitting catcher who is actually a backup could be a reasonable addition though.

 

If they're going to bring in a veteran, fine, there is plenty of room to upgrade the bench and we could benefit a lot if we had bench players we wanted to play. But we need to stop signing guys like Wise and Kotsay who no one in their right mind wants to give playing time to. If we're signing a grindy veteran player, fine...just make sure they can at least hit well enough that we put them in the lineup every so often.

[Jake]

As I continue to think about this, our roster was clearly constructed based on the idea that the way above average value positions would be 1B and DH and that was largely the case last year (and we saw everything fall apart as Dunn and Konerko slumped down the stretch). This year, you see how bad the team is without its best players being its best players. Dunn has rallied back but playing 1B takes a nearly insurmountable chunk out of his value.

 

The biggest problem with this team is that Paulie did not hit as well as planned AND nobody else hit a ton better as expected to make up for it. This team is probably a contender if PK is mashing and playing 1B. Sadly, it is hard to get a great 1B. Let's hope we figure something out.

 

Someone in FutureSox said they see Andy Wilkins potentially being a 2-2.5 WAR player. Do you know how much better we would be if we had a 2-2.5 WAR player at first right now??

[Dick Allen]

No I think AJ is a terrible idea. We've committed to playing young guys there, we should play the young guys. Phegley should be the starter. Flowers, I dunno, he's still actually not a terrible backup option and still has plenty of room to improve, but the downside is that he hits from the same side of the plate as Phegley. A LH hitting catcher who is actually a backup could be a reasonable addition though.

 

If they're going to bring in a veteran, fine, there is plenty of room to upgrade the bench and we could benefit a lot if we had bench players we wanted to play. But we need to stop signing guys like Wise and Kotsay who no one in their right mind wants to give playing time to. If we're signing a grindy veteran player, fine...just make sure they can at least hit well enough that we put them in the lineup every so often.

If no one wants to give Kotsay playing time, how come he's still playing 3 years after he left the White Sox? Guys like Kotsay and Wise are fine on winning teams in limited roles.

[Balta1701]

As I continue to think about this, our roster was clearly constructed based on the idea that the way above average value positions would be 1B and DH and that was largely the case last year (and we saw everything fall apart as Dunn and Konerko slumped down the stretch). This year, you see how bad the team is without its best players being its best players. Dunn has rallied back but playing 1B takes a nearly insurmountable chunk out of his value.

 

The biggest problem with this team is that Paulie did not hit as well as planned AND nobody else hit a ton better as expected to make up for it. This team is probably a contender if PK is mashing and playing 1B. Sadly, it is hard to get a great 1B. Let's hope we figure something out.

 

Someone in FutureSox said they see Andy Wilkins potentially being a 2-2.5 WAR player. Do you know how much better we would be if we had a 2-2.5 WAR player at first right now??

That's one of the biggest problems, I think the sloppy play all around the field is the other one.

[Eminor3rd]

Someone in FutureSox said they see Andy Wilkins potentially being a 2-2.5 WAR player. Do you know how much better we would be if we had a 2-2.5 WAR player at first right now??

 

About 2 to 3 wins better?

[Balta1701]

If no one wants to give Kotsay playing time, how come he's still playing 3 years after he left the White Sox? Guys like Kotsay and Wise are fine on winning teams in limited roles.

For Kotsay...because he's a career .275 hitter as a pinch hitter and in the NL when you have the pitcher's spot that's incredibly important and overvalued. A team like the Padres can live with that guy on the bench because they can use him for an at-bat a game, particularly from the LH side. He's not in the AL, that's why he's still playing.

 

Wise....well, I think Rios has had what, 1 day off this season? Even when Wise was here he wasn't being used. Blame the manager for that if you want, but we need someone on the bench the manager will actually use somewhere on this team.

[LittleHurt05]

As I continue to think about this, our roster was clearly constructed based on the idea that the way above average value positions would be 1B and DH and that was largely the case last year (and we saw everything fall apart as Dunn and Konerko slumped down the stretch). This year, you see how bad the team is without its best players being its best players. Dunn has rallied back but playing 1B takes a nearly insurmountable chunk out of his value.

 

The biggest problem with this team is that Paulie did not hit as well as planned AND nobody else hit a ton better as expected to make up for it. This team is probably a contender if PK is mashing and playing 1B. Sadly, it is hard to get a great 1B. Let's hope we figure something out.

 

Someone in FutureSox said they see Andy Wilkins potentially being a 2-2.5 WAR player. Do you know how much better we would be if we had a 2-2.5 WAR player at first right now??

 

Last year's team had the same issue when PK stopped hitting in June. For a while, they got some spurts of hitting from Youk, Dunn, AJ that kept them in the race, but in the end the lineup wasn't good (or healthy) enough to make up for the lack of production from Konerko.

[TaylorStSox]

As long as we continue to play at the Cell, we need to hit a lot of home runs to be good. Ramirez, Konerko, Keppinger, Beckham... s***, Dunn's the only power hitter in the line up right now. That has to change.

[Buehrle>Wood]

It will be interesting to see which, if any, veteran they will bring in to sort of lead the clubhouse, set the tone, etc., once the current crew (Konerko/Dunn/Rios) are gone. I think Danks can set the tone with the staff...he's learned from guys like Buehrle and Peavy. And Sale seems more mature than his age, and a grinder. John Buck's a guy with a good rep, and so is Coco Crisp. He did a lot for those young guys in Oakland. Hunter Pence is another guy who seems to thrive in that role. Anyone think AJ could be that guy?

Yes. AJ makes too much sense.

[GreenSox]

For Kotsay...because he's a career .275 hitter as a pinch hitter and in the NL when you have the pitcher's spot that's incredibly important and overvalued. A team like the Padres can live with that guy on the bench because they can use him for an at-bat a game, particularly from the LH side. He's not in the AL, that's why he's still playing.

 

Wise....well, I think Rios has had what, 1 day off this season? Even when Wise was here he wasn't being used. Blame the manager for that if you want, but we need someone on the bench the manager will actually use somewhere on this team.

Kotsay is in a different league of baseball player than Wise and his career .267 OBP. Can't blame the manager for not playing Wise...applaud him.

[Jake]

I hope we make three short term deals for next season. If we suck we can trade them. Go into the year with extra hitters.

 

C: Phegley, AJ

1B: Hart, Dunn

2B: Beckham, Keppinger

3B: Gillaspie, Keppinger

SS: Alexei

RF: Garcia, Hart

CF: Crisp, De Aza

LF: De Aza, Viciedo

DH: Dunn, AJ, Viciedo.

 

We can get Crisp, Hart and AJ for short term deals and we definitely have the money to. Worst case move them in July.

 

Seems like this just costs all of our best young players ABs - Phegley, Viciedo, Garcia, De Aza

[Balta1701]

Seems like this just costs all of our best young players ABs - Phegley, Viciedo, Garcia, De Aza

yeah, that's sort of backwards with what we ought to be doing with these guys. All 3 of those guys are going to be looking for places where they're the starter.

[Eminor3rd]

Yeah, kind of crazy, but I see no place where we should add a veteran to the lineup via free agency now that we have Garcia. Rios needs to move for him, and there's no point in clogging DH if we manage to move Dunn. We might find ourselves needing a bullpen piece or something.

[Balta1701]

Yeah, kind of crazy, but I see no place where we should add a veteran to the lineup via free agency now that we have Garcia. Rios needs to move for him, and there's no point in clogging DH if we manage to move Dunn. We might find ourselves needing a bullpen piece or something.

We definitely need at least 1 bullpen veteran arm this summer, maybe more than 1 depending on who from the minors they trust.