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Adam Dunn cleared waivers


LittleHurt05

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 02:57 PM)
I mean on his OPS numbers.

 

I figure the shift takes about 20 to 30 points off his batting average each year. That is about 10-15 hits (mostly singles). If I assume all singles and add 15 hits that improves his OPS last year to about .842 and this year to about .859.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 01:02 PM)
I don't understand how "the shift" can be used as an excuse for decreased productivity. Isn't the name of the game to hit the ball where the defense isn't? When he steps in the batters box, the defense is already lined up in the shift. I don't buy that it's bad luck for him, it is up to him to adjust. They shift for David Ortiz and he seems to be doing fine.

I'm not arguing that it is an excuse for decreased productivity. Just pointing out that the League has made an adjustment to his hitting pattern that might have affected his production.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 03:00 PM)
Oh, well I'm sure the shift has affected his AVG (and thus his OBP and SLG), but at this point in his career, his HOF ticket is more or less his home run total.

 

I would argue that his HOF tickets was ALWAYS more or less his homerun total.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 03:02 PM)
I don't understand how "the shift" can be used as an excuse for decreased productivity. Isn't the name of the game to hit the ball where the defense isn't? When he steps in the batters box, the defense is already lined up in the shift. I don't buy that it's bad luck for him, it is up to him to adjust. They shift for David Ortiz and he seems to be doing fine.

Exactly. There is a shift for every hitter. It's just not as extreme, except for Ted Williams. Check out his numbers. Dunn is only 438 ks away from being the all time leader.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 01:04 PM)
I would argue that his HOF tickets was ALWAYS more or less his homerun total.

Right, but in order to earn the PAs he needs to get to 600 home runs, he needs to be viewed as a productive player. Balta was pointing out the decline in his OPS numbers as evidence of his decline from a skills perspective. I was merely asking a question about whether that production might have been affected by the shift.

 

 

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 02:58 PM)
His OPS has improved from age 31 to age 32 and from age 32 to age 33. While he is obviously not going to keep improving at his age, barring a 2011 type collapse I don't see any reason why he can't keep putting up .800+ OPSs for the next 5 years. He should be hitting his 500th early on in 2015 at the age of 35. You honestly don't think if he has 500 homers at age 35 he can hang on for 600? They put Killebrew and his .256 average in during a time when batting average was still the go to stat. Dunn will likely end up with more hits, runs, 2Bs, HRs, RBIs, and walks.

 

 

The issue he is while he find enough at-bats in his upper 30s to reach 600? The DH-only slugger isn't as prevalent in today's baseball. Teams value defense more and like to move guys in and out of the DH spot to use as rest days. Even if he stays productive, he may not see as many ABs in the future.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 03:05 PM)
Exactly. There is a shift for every hitter. It's just not as extreme, except for Ted Williams. Check out his numbers. Dunn is only 438 ks away from being the all time leader.

 

In an era where strikeouts are, overwhelmingly, at an all-time high across both leagues.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 03:09 PM)
The issue he is while he find enough at-bats in his upper 30s to reach 600? The DH-only slugger isn't as prevalent in today's baseball. Teams value defense more and like to move guys in and out of the DH spot to use as rest days. Even if he stays productive, he may not see as many ABs in the future.

 

As long as he's putting up an .800+ OPS against RHP, he's going to have at least a part time job.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 03:04 PM)
I'm not arguing that it is an excuse for decreased productivity. Just pointing out that the League has made an adjustment to his hitting pattern that might have affected his production.

 

Ok, gotcha. I agree that it could affect his production. But some people (namely Hawk) act like he gets "robbed" everytime he hits into the shift, like it's unfair that the 2nd basebam is playing in a different spot. Drives me crazy.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 03:11 PM)
In an era where strikeouts are, overwhelmingly, at an all-time high across both leagues.

Everyone above him has played at least 5 seasons more than him. He can make a mockery of the records.

 

Jackson 2597 k 11,418 plate appearances

Thome 2548 k 10,313 plate appearances

Sosa 2306 k 9,896 plate appearances

Dunn 2159 k 7,668 plate appearances

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 03:15 PM)
Everyone above him has played at least 5 seasons more than him. He can make a mockery of the records.

 

Jackson 2597 k 11,418 plate appearances

Thome 2548 k 10,313 plate appearances

Sosa 2306 k 9,896 plate appearances

Dunn 2159 k 7,668 plate appearances

 

Those guys are still all from an era where K rate was substantially lower.

 

Krate.png

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QUOTE (South Side Fireworks Man @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 02:26 PM)
Since he supposedly hates the Sox so much, the Sox should claim him just to make things interesting.

 

Also, it blocks other teams who may prefer him over Adam Dunn.

Sox won't do it. Not a chance since he's an impending free agent and the Sox arent going to pay him the remaining salary on his contract for this year after just saving $4M from trading Rios early. Only contenders do what you suggest though I'm sure you weren't serious.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 09:12 PM)
As long as he's putting up an .800+ OPS against RHP, he's going to have at least a part time job.

Once this contract runs out, does he make the MLB minimum? Does he love baseball enough to play for 1-2 million a year? Judging from how he not so long ago was by far the worst hitter in baseball, I'd say nobody will pay him more than the basic salary. If the Sox can't trade him and his contract expires on the south side maybe the White Sox will be that team to give him 1-3 mill a year or a Keppinger-like deal.

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 15, 2013 -> 04:09 PM)
Once this contract runs out, does he make the MLB minimum? Does he love baseball enough to play for 1-2 million a year? Judging from how he not so long ago was by far the worst hitter in baseball, I'd say nobody will pay him more than the basic salary. If the Sox can't trade him and his contract expires on the south side maybe the White Sox will be that team to give him 1-3 mill a year or a Keppinger-like deal.

If he hits 30-40 Hrs he will get a good contract probably 10 million. Power is at a premium now. It is not the same as before when many hitters hit .3o0 and 40 Hrs. Those are only the elite, as it should be.

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Aug 15, 2013 -> 09:25 PM)
Only on Soxtalk would there be a serious conversation about Adam Dunn's HoF chances.

 

It'd be like putting Dave Kingman in the Hall. Kingman was the same as Dunn wasn't he? Pathetically bad for stretches with a ton of K's? Then he'd get hot and blast some bombs. Like Dunn, Kingman never played for a playoff team did he? Also didn't Kingman have years where his average was under .200 for a long long stretch?

Edited by greg775
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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Aug 15, 2013 -> 04:25 PM)
Only on Soxtalk would there be a serious conversation about Adam Dunn's HoF chances.

Anytime someone gets near 500 HRs, 3,000 hits or 300 wins for a pitcher there will be HOF talk.

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 15, 2013 -> 04:35 PM)
It'd be like putting Dave Kingman in the Hall. Kingman was the same as Dunn wasn't he? Pathetically bad for stretches with a ton of K's? Then he'd get hot and blast some bombs. Like Dunn, Kingman never played for a playoff team did he? Also didn't Kingman have years where his average was under .200 for a long long stretch?

 

Yea except for the fact that Dunn's OBP is 60 points higher and he already has just about as many homers and RBI' with another 5 or so years to add to those totals, but yea other than that exactly the same.

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