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Sox Sign Jose Abreu - 6/$68 million


beck72

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In 2010-11, Abreu won the MVP award after having one of the greatest seasons in Cuban history, despite missing 23 games due to bursitis in his shoulder. Abreu batted .453/.597/.986 in 293 plate appearances, blasting 33 home runs with 58 walks and 32 strikeouts. He led Cuba in batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS. He tied Yoenis Cespedes, now with the Athletics, for the league lead in home runs despite stepping to the plate 122 fewer times.

 

Abreu’s MVP season came one year after he finished third in MVP voting behind Despaigne and third baseman Yulieski Gourriel. Abreu batted .399/.555/.822 with 30 home runs, 74 walks and 49 strikeouts in 82 games that season to lead Cuba in OBP, slugging and OPS while ranking second in batting average and finishing one home run shy of Despaigne for the league lead in homers. http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/cuba...eu-leaves-cuba/

 

The 3rd number is slugging not OPS I think which would be incredibly high. Guy should command 5+ years and somewhere around $10 mill per year. I think the Sox will be in on him unless the bidding goes higher than say $75 mill.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 11:37 AM)
The 3rd number is slugging not OPS I think which would be incredibly high. Guy should command 5+ years and somewhere around $10 mill per year. I think the Sox will be in on him unless the bidding goes higher than say $75 mill.

 

 

I imagine with Puigs success, Abreus contract will inflate. I think $15M/year will be table stakes, maybe a 4 year deal so that he can hit FA sooner and get a large second contract as well.

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QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 11:43 AM)
Puig's 7-year, $42 million deal is looking like a bargain. If we could get something similar for Abreu would make sense, especially a guy in his prime. Cubans are sort of becoming the next market efficiency.

 

Abreu is so much more of a known quantity than Puig though, so he comes with less uncertainty. Puig was basically just a rumor when the bidding started on him. This guy is older and has been on an international stage for years. He'll definitely cost more.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 11:30 AM)
Alexei's walk rate is 5.0%, and while you can justify that because of his defensive value, you can't have a lineup full of guys who walk 5% of the time or your offense is going to really suck.

 

And he has been one of the best defensive shortstops in the league during that time frame too. A run saved is just as good as a run scored.

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For those with knowledge of Cuban League baseball (or followed the defectors closer than I) - is it common for those top players to have featured the type of OBP that Abreu has? Should that signal he's more of a patient hitter than we are used to from Cuba, or is that line pretty typical for a top hitter in Cuba?

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I feel like such a "hipster" when it comes to this guy. I posted about him being the best Cuban hitter out there and me wanting him the day before the news even came out that'd he'd come to the US.

 

I read an article that said he's the "best offensive weapon on the planet". He's put better numbers than anyone ever has in Cuba. He missed 20+ games one year and still tied Cespedes for the league lead in HRs one year.

 

I'm all in on this guy, and I think it'd be silly for someone not to be. Even at 10 mill a year he certainly wouldn't break the bank. I'm ok with guys like Morales or Hart at 1B but neither would be quite as exciting and generate more of a buzz than this guy.

 

Bring on Abreu-mania

 

 

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QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 12:07 PM)
For those with knowledge of Cuban League baseball (or followed the defectors closer than I) - is it common for those top players to have featured the type of OBP that Abreu has? Should that signal he's more of a patient hitter than we are used to from Cuba, or is that line pretty typical for a top hitter in Cuba?

 

I was wondering the same thing. Wish we could see Pitch F/X data to determine.

 

However, I was listening to a podcast a week or so ago where someone asked Jason Parks why Latino-imported pitchers seem to always be relievers, and he said that they all tend to be very wild, hard throwers with noisy mechanics. Whether it had to do with player development philosophy or the fact that showcases tend to favor the loudest tools, he could not say. So that makes me wonder if the Cuban league just has a ton of high-walk pitchers, which might explain the high isolated patience for the top hitters.

 

That said, even if the control is worse overall, the willingness to take those horrible pitches is still nice. I mean, Viciedo certainly never had it, for example.

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Here's the really well written piece on him that sold me.

 

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/760160...e-weapon-planet

 

 

David Frost, the assistant GM for Oakland, compares him to Ryan Howard...Pre-injury Ryan Howard I assume.

 

 

Also the article notes that his obp is inflated by leading the league in intentional walks and HBPs. Still though even if you subtract those his obp would still be pretty high.

Edited by scs787
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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 02:38 PM)
He'll likely cost 50-100% more, sounds like.

I have zero issue with this. This is a big gamble but it's a big gamble the White Sox are in perfect position to make. Minimal salary on the books, desperate need of a bat, gaping hole at 1b, able to absorb a bad contract if it does go bad. The only caveat I'll give is that I'll want to hear a lot of scouting opinions first, but I'm game for 150% of Puig's contract as a starting point if the guys in my org tell me he's all they say he could be.

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Bowden has an ESPN Inside article on him.

 

Among the highlights:

 

Scouting grades

Hit: 70

Power: 70

Glove: 50

Run: 40

Arm: 50

 

And he calls the Marlins the favorites to sign him based on people he has talked to. In order: Marlins, Red Sox, Rangers, Mariners, A's, Nationals and Rockies.

 

Take it for what it's worth. Like has been mentioned with Cespedes, Athletics came out of nowhere to sign him.

 

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QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:49 PM)
Bowden has an ESPN Inside article on him.

 

Among the highlights:

 

 

 

And he calls the Marlins the favorites to sign him based on people he has talked to. In order: Marlins, Red Sox, Rangers, Mariners, A's, Nationals and Rockies.

 

Take it for what it's worth. Like has been mentioned with Cespedes, Athletics came out of nowhere to sign him.

 

The White Sox aren't even in the discussion? huh?

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:50 PM)
The White Sox aren't even in the discussion? huh?

 

Everything is very preliminary, the Cubs and White Sox were the favorites for Puig before the Dodgers trumped everyone. This will be a process that will not conclude for quite a while.

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QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 07:37 PM)
Also the article notes that his obp is inflated by leading the league in intentional walks and HBPs. Still though even if you subtract those his obp would still be pretty high.

 

That's what I imagined, thanks.

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:50 PM)
The White Sox aren't even in the discussion? huh?

I think it's all speculation from the people Bowden has talked to, so I would not put much stock into what he has said.

 

Abreu makes perfect sense for the Sox, so it would be really surprising to see the Sox not involved.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:50 PM)
The White Sox aren't even in the discussion? huh?

 

Considering we just found out this morning that he's currently in Haiti, and may not be able to establish residency/free agency for months, I'd imagine this is all preliminary. I wouldn't worry too much at this stage :P

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QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:49 PM)
Bowden has an ESPN Inside article on him.

 

Among the highlights:

 

 

 

And he calls the Marlins the favorites to sign him based on people he has talked to. In order: Marlins, Red Sox, Rangers, Mariners, A's, Nationals and Rockies.

 

Take it for what it's worth. Like has been mentioned with Cespedes, Athletics came out of nowhere to sign him.

 

70/70 on the hit tools is like Miguel Cabrera. Were those his current grades or his ceilings?

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