Sox Sign Jose Abreu - 6/$68 million

[witesoxfan]

Carpe Diem: Dayan Viciedo hit .337 with 14 homers in the Cuban League...as a 16 year old.

[Steve9347]

Hahn clearing the books has never looked better.

That'd be something, but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

The Sox with Abreu, McCann, and Ellsbury would be contenders.

[lasttriptotulsa]

That'd be something, but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

The Sox with Abreu, McCann, and Ellsbury would be contenders.

 

Agreed on both statements. I could realistically see the Sox signing Abreu, McCann or McCann, Granderson or Granderson, Abreu, but I do not see them signing three big free agent contracts. I would love to see Ellsbury on the Sox, but I think somebody is going to drastically overpay for him hoping he can stay healthy and get back to his MVP caliber form of a few years ago.

 

Even with two of those big free agent signings I could see the Sox being contenders barring injuries.

[witesoxfan]

Agreed on both statements. I could realistically see the Sox signing Abreu, McCann or McCann, Granderson or Granderson, Abreu, but I do not see them signing three big free agent contracts. I would love to see Ellsbury on the Sox, but I think somebody is going to drastically overpay for him hoping he can stay healthy and get back to his MVP caliber form of a few years ago.

 

Even with two of those big free agent signings I could see the Sox being contenders barring injuries.

 

I could see being contenders with two of those three, especially if one was Abreu. However, I don't think they would be contenders.

[Balta1701]

I could see being contenders with two of those three, especially if one was Abreu. However, I don't think they would be contenders.

I could see them contending with 2...but the caveats are "they have to remember that when this white spherical object comes close to them they are supposed to catch it and not run away", general health, and "Viciedo, Garcia, and Abreu all hit like they're capable of".

 

(Of course, if the guy they sign is Granderson, the fact that Viciedo and Garcia are the guys who the team would need to carry the offense might mitigate the impact of his signing. If both of them go off, suddenly he's a very tiny upgrade on De Aza at best).

[Princess Dye]

Have any of the insiders-of-sorts said anything here about offseason spending? Targets?

[Marty34]

This sealed bid thing, if true, is puzzling to me. Unless they only think one team is going to offer a boatload of money, why not open him up for auction?

 

Because no one knows where to value him at. Pretty smart of the agent, if the bids come in close that's when the negotiations begin.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Bucket has said McCann, Pence and Abreu are all on the big board. Pence obviously having signed long term with the Giants since.

 

As they should have been. I'm still crossing my fingers like I have been for the past 3 years or so for Gerardo Parra to man CF for the Sox.

[knightni]

As they should have been. I'm still crossing my fingers like I have been for the past 3 years or so for Gerardo Parra to man CF for the Sox.

27 years old next year.

 

.277 BA 7 HR 44 RBI 9 SB in a 135 game season average

 

15 assists and 3 errors in 123 attempts in RF last year. Has never played in CF more than 48 games in an entire season.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Hahn clearing the books has never looked better.

 

Sox could realistically sign Abreu, McCann, and Ellsbury.

 

CF - Ellsbury

SS - Alexei

DH - Dunn

1B - Abreu

C - McCann

RF - Garcia

LF - Viciedo

3B - Semien

2B - Beckham

 

Bench: Jordan Danks, L. Garcia, Gillaspie, Phegley

 

Trade DeAza for some piece.

 

The rotation and bullpen are basically set.

 

Boom, rebuild over.

My pipedream offseason would be:

 

Two of Abreu, McCann, Ellsbury

 

One of Granderson, Morales, AJ depending on who the first two are.

 

 

But even that's a pipedream.

Edited October 8, 2013 by Buehrle>Wood

[2nd_city_saint787]

27 years old next year.

 

.277 BA 7 HR 44 RBI 9 SB in a 135 game season average

 

15 errors in 123 attempts in RF last year. Has never played in CF more than 48 games in an entire season.

 

 

He's still ranked positively there the last couple years...It just so happens that AJ Polluck and in the past Chris Young has graded out amongst the best.

[chw42]

27 years old next year.

 

.277 BA 7 HR 44 RBI 9 SB in a 135 game season average

 

15 errors in 123 attempts in RF last year. Has never played in CF more than 48 games in an entire season.

 

I think you mean 3.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...ion=OF#fielding

 

I've never seen an outfielder make 15 errors in a season.

Edited October 8, 2013 by chw42

[Eminor3rd]

I think you mean 3.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...ion=OF#fielding

 

I've never seen an outfielder make 15 errors in a season.

 

Looks like he was referencing the Assists column. Whoops. 15 assists is awesome.

[knightni]

I think you mean 3.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...ion=OF#fielding

 

I've never seen an outfielder make 15 errors in a season.

Yeah the 15 was the assists.

[Chicago White Sox]

Any chance a decision won't be announced until after the playoffs? I could imagine if the Red Sox had the winning bid, they might not want Napoli to find out he's being replaced mid-playoffs.

[Eminor3rd]

Any chance a decision won't be announced until after the playoffs? I could imagine if the Red Sox had the winning bid, they might not want Napoli to find out he's being replaced mid-playoffs.

 

It won't be announced until after the playoffs, but that's because the MLB doesn't want big news taking away from the games.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

27 years old next year.

 

.277 BA 7 HR 44 RBI 9 SB in a 135 game season average

 

15 assists and 3 errors in 123 attempts in RF last year. Has never played in CF more than 48 games in an entire season.

 

And a 4.6 WAR last season, more than twice that of De Aza, and better than Rios ever did with the Sox, not to mention younger than Rios and De Aza, and even Jordan Danks for that measure.

[Chicago White Sox]

It won't be announced until after the playoffs, but that's because the MLB doesn't want big news taking away from the games.

What moves can be announced during the playoffs? The Cubs just signed Ryan Sweeney to an extension. I guess I'm a bit surprised MLB would have a rule against announcing international free agent signings during the first round of the playoffs, given how few there are nowadays. That really sucks if we have to wait a couple weeks to find out who won the Abreu bidding.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

What moves can be announced during the playoffs? The Cubs just signed Ryan Sweeney to an extension. I guess I'm a bit surprised MLB would have a rule against announcing international free agent signings during the first round of the playoffs, given how few there are nowadays. That really sucks if we have to wait a couple weeks to find out who won the Abreu bidding.

 

Wait, Abreu has signed with someone?

[Chicago White Sox]

Wait, Abreu has signed with someone?

No, but Eminor is saying a move can't be announced until after the World Series, so it's possible he's already picked a team and we simply won't find out for a few weeks.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

No, but Eminor is saying a move can't be announced until after the World Series, so it's possible he's already picked a team and we simply won't find out for a few weeks.

 

Oh, well I was figuring he wouldn't even pick a team until around Xmas, or at least until after the winter meetings when teams will start taking shape.

[Balta1701]

And a 4.6 WAR last season, more than twice that of De Aza, and better than Rios ever did with the Sox, not to mention younger than Rios and De Aza, and even Jordan Danks for that measure.

Wait, that war number doesn't make sense next to the stats you replied to, was all his value defense and ballpark adjustments? A .277 average and 7 home runs shouldn't give a war that high?

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Wait, that war number doesn't make sense next to the stats you replied to, was all his value defense and ballpark adjustments? A .277 average and 7 home runs shouldn't give a war that high?

 

He was giving career averages for whatever reason. He hit .268 with 10 HR and 10 SB last year. He is considered a below replacement level hitter, but an extraordinary fielder with possibly the strongest OF arm I've ever seen.

Edited October 9, 2013 by Chilihead90

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/free...riel-abreu.html

[knightni]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/free...riel-abreu.html

Free Agent Profile: Jose Dariel Abreu

By Tim Dierkes [October 15, 2013 at 3:17pm CST]

Is Jose Dariel Abreu MLB's next Cuban sensation? Abreu, who turns 27 in January, defected from Cuba in August and is now free to sign with any team. He has a good chance to sign the largest contract ever for a Cuban player, topping Yasiel Puig's seven-year, $42MM deal. Every team had some kind of scouting presence at Abreu's early October showcase, reported Baseball America's Ben Badler.

 

Strengths/Pros

 

Abreu put up huge numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional as well as in international tournaments. His calling card is power, prompting Athletics assistant GM David Forst to say to Grantland's Jonah Keri in February 2012, "There are legitimate comparisons to Ryan Howard." Badler elaborated in August this year, "Abreu is a physically imposing righthanded hitter with tremendous raw power to all fields." In an ESPN article, former GM Jim Bowden gave Abreu a 70 hit tool and 70 for power on the scouting scale, after talking to "a few execs and scouts who have seen him play." One scout told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick Abreu has "monstrous power." Many different reports suggest Abreu could hit 30 home runs for an MLB team right away, a level no free agent reached in 2013. Given the scouting grade on his power, it seems possible Abreu could reach 40 in a season at some point during his contract.

 

Since Abreu will play in 2014 at age 27, he's younger than every significant free agent hitter. A six-year deal could still catch a large portion of his prime, which is unlikely to be the case with any other free agent.

 

If they reach the open market, many of the top free agent power bats have a good chance of requiring the sacrifice of a draft pick to sign: Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli, Kendrys Morales, Shin-Soo Choo, and Brian McCann. Abreu will not require the loss of a draft pick.

 

Weaknesses/Cons

 

If Abreu has a few vintage Ryan Howard or David Ortiz-caliber seasons during his contract, he should easily be worth $50-60MM, and could provide an excellent return on investment. MLB executives are drooling at the thought. There have been some less-than-glowing reports about Abreu's overall hitting ability, however.

 

Abreu's bat speed was questioned in a pair of excellent reports from Badler and Crasnick, and there are multiple scouts who feel he will struggle against hard fastballs inside. Crasnick talked to a scout who described Abreu as a less-athletic Dayan Viciedo, a player with a .264/.306/.432 line in over 1,200 big league plate appearances. In sum, Viciedo has been about replacement level for his career. The scout felt that Abreu has more power than Kendrys Morales, but is a worse hitter. There are few questions about Abreu's power, but will he be able to hit for average or draw a walk? Badler has noted that scouts and teams have extensive history watching Abreu, but based on reports, it's unclear whether they project him over or under Morales' .333 career OBP.

 

Reports vary on Abreu's ability to contribute beyond his bat. One scout told Crasnick Abreu is "all bat," an Edgar Martinez type, while another felt he could be a solid first baseman. The bar is raised for a bat-only player, and it's certainly possible to hit 25-30 home runs and still be replacement level, as Raul Ibanez did this year. As far as young DHs go, Billy Butler has a .298/.364/.459 line in seven seasons, yet has never had a season in which he was worth three wins above replacement. Still, if Abreu settles in as a two-win player, he'll still be worth a $10MM salary.

 

At 6'2" and 250 pounds, Abreu is not nearly the athlete Yasiel Puig or Yoenis Cespedes is, though Crasnick says Abreu has ramped up his conditioning of late. He's still likely to be a negative in baserunning.

 

Personal

 

Abreu is married and has a son, and I've heard he is a relatively quiet player who takes a professional approach to his job. Abreu is more grounded than Puig and is considered a "good kid" in scouting circles, according to Crasnick. Abreu's good friend Henry Urrutia, an outfielder for the Orioles, told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, "He's a humble man and he comes from a rural area of hard-working people." Abreu has a "fun-loving personality," heard MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.

 

Market

 

The top end of the free agent market for first basemen includes Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, both of whom seem likely to come with a draft pick cost attached. Badler talked to scouts who preferred Napoli to Abreu, but it's far from a slam dunk. Though Abreu has been scouted extensively, I still believe some teams will be seduced by the allure of the unknown, as it's easier to dream about Abreu hitting 40 home runs than Napoli or Morales, partially because Abreu has never played in the Majors.

 

Unlike typical free agents, Abreu is free to sign now and already held a showcase, so rumors are plentiful. The Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Rangers, Giants, Pirates, Orioles, and Mets have been linked to Abreu to varying degrees, and Badler says the first five teams had the strongest presence at his showcase in the Dominican Republic. Abreu's market is not limited to win-now teams, given his age. The Marlins, in particular, are "all-in" on Abreu, wrote MLB.com's Joe Frisaro in early October. They sent GM Dan Jennings to his showcase, and already have two of Abreu's countrymen on the roster in Jose Fernandez and Adeiny Hechavarria.

 

Expected Contract

 

Predicting Abreu's contract is particularly difficult without knowing the player's goals. Cespedes made a point of limiting his term to four years, to allow a quick path back to free agency. Puig maximized his total dollars by taking a seven-year deal, a contract few saw coming in advance. Napoli has his share of drawbacks, yet I've projected a three-year, $42MM contract. Given that Abreu is more than five years younger, won't cost a draft pick, and may have more power, an average annual value of $10MM or less may be a bargain. $60MM over six years appears to be Abreu's ceiling. Ultimately I find the oft-cited six-year, $54MM prediction to be the best bet.