Sox Sign Jose Abreu - 6/$68 million

[GreatScott82]

Hahn clearly mentioned that he would spend that money saved on the Peavy/Rios deals for international signings and prospect development. If this dude is the #1 guy out there overseas- im sure they will be all over this.

[2nd_city_saint787]

We hear the comparisons to Ryan Howard.

 

Remember what Ryan Howard looks like when he plays a little worse than expected - bad. We'd be rewarding this guy with what is basically the contract Ryan Howard received in his prime. It's kind of insane.

 

I'll try to trust the White Sox, but hot damn is there a lot of risk if the price is as high as some speculate. Seems like an odd expenditure when you've just put yourself in an amazing position financially.

 

Me and Jake are disagreeing?? WHAAA??

 

Howard got 5/125 in is prime. That's nowhere near 7/80, thought that 7 year number is just speculation from what Puig got. It'd have to be 4/80 to be even close to the contract Howard got.

 

If it's 7/80 that's 11M a year on average, even at 6/80 they're looking at 13M on average. If Stone is right when he said that scouts think he could be an All Star right away then that's not that big of a number.

[Quin]

For people that hated the Dunn deal, it's a little funny to see how eager everyone jumping on a guy who we would give twice as much money for a lot less certainty (and we see how far certainty gets you w/ Dunn)

 

Ding ding ding.

 

I want Abreu, but let's stop throwing around crazy numbers.

[Baron]

Ding ding ding.

 

I want Abreu, but let's stop throwing around crazy numbers.

 

I think 80 is pushing it but 70 is right around what I think he'll command.

[Harry Chappas]

Any chance Torres used the sox history to inform them abreu could be an option.

 

If Torres represents him the sox should be in play.

[greg775]

There is no way this guy is getting 6/90. Cespedes just got 4/36 two years ago and was basically the same age but is a 5 tool outfielder. Abreu may be a more accomplished hitter in Cuba, but he's also a 1B and an average athlete at best. A lot of teams are going to he turned off by his lack of athletism and others simply won't have a need for a 1B/DH type. The market for him will much smaller than those for Cespedes & Puig.

 

I think he ultimately gets more than Puig since he is major league ready, but 6/60 is the max I see him getting unless the Marlins do something stupid to try and win fans back.

 

Cespedes has been nothing special, ala Tank. This guy should not get more than Cespedes got. I know he will cause everybody loves the unknown, but he shouldn't.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

And given the success of Puig, he could bring much needed excitement to the Sox fan base.

Minus the speed, the great catches in the outfield, the laser beam throws but yea excitement without all that.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It's the problem that comes along with having to turn around an offense on a quick timeline...you're stuck with what the market provides...which is why you can't afford to be giving guys like Rios away for nothing, because then you go and struggle to replace him.

Where's that picture of a dead horse when you need it.

[caulfield12]

Anything over $60 million is nuts for a one dimensional 1B/DH.

 

Knowing the Sox, he's the bust whereas Puig looks legit....we'll see about Cespedes and Soler.

 

Just say NO to overpaying....we're paying $20-30-40 million extra because of Puig, and they're nothing alike as players. We might as well send that money to the Dodgers to subsidize a Puig extension, as it makes no sense for the Sox at those numbers to get stuck with another bad contract.

 

Even if his hit tool is MIGGY CABRERA...well, then I'll consider $60-65, but who is that hitter besides Cabrera/Trout/Davis?

[witesoxfan]

Me and Jake are disagreeing?? WHAAA??

 

Howard got 5/125 in is prime. That's nowhere near 7/80, thought that 7 year number is just speculation from what Puig got. It'd have to be 4/80 to be even close to the contract Howard got.

 

If it's 7/80 that's 11M a year on average, even at 6/80 they're looking at 13M on average. If Stone is right when he said that scouts think he could be an All Star right away then that's not that big of a number.

 

The Howard extension was pretty much universally criticized and called the worst extension of all time at the time it happened. Howard may have been a $15-17 million player, and that was coming off fantastic seasons.

 

Let's call a spade a spade here - at his best nowadays, Ryan Howard is about a .250/.340/.460/.800 30 HR, poor defense, high strikeout player anymore.

[Balta1701]

Anything over $60 million is nuts for a one dimensional 1B/DH.

 

Knowing the Sox, he's the bust whereas Puig looks legit....we'll see about Cespedes and Soler.

 

Just say NO to overpaying....we're paying $20-30-40 million extra because of Puig, and they're nothing alike as players. We might as well send that money to the Dodgers to subsidize a Puig extension, as it makes no sense for the Sox at those numbers to get stuck with another bad contract.

 

Even if his hit tool is MIGGY CABRERA...well, then I'll consider $60-65, but who is that hitter besides Cabrera/Trout/Davis?

The scouting numbers presented earlier in this thread don't suggest he's just a one-dimensional 1b.

[Eminor3rd]

1) The Dunn comparisons don't really work, IMO. If scouts are dropping a 70 grade on the hit tool, he's a completely different player. Also, he's 26, not 31.

 

2) Unspectacular or not, Cespedes is TOTALLY worth 4/36. We're not talking about $20m per year here. I think some people are overestimating what $8-10m can really buy you in free agency. Abreu would only need to be a 2 WAR player to earn $10m per year.

[Dick Allen]

Any chance Torres used the sox history to inform them abreu could be an option.

 

If Torres represents him the sox should be in play.

Doesn't Torres represent a lot more guys who don't play for the White Sox than actually do? I don't think he would steer this guy towards the team for a lesser deal. It's all about the money. He will probably wind up in Boston.

[Balta1701]

Doesn't Torres represent a lot more guys who don't play for the White Sox than actually do? I don't think he would steer this guy towards the team for a lesser deal. It's all about the money. He will probably wind up in Boston.

I genuinely wonder if Boston, coming off a real good year, might not be hesitant to overspend on this guy as compared to someone more established (i.e. Napoli). That said, this could be a real solid bidding between the 2 Sox.

[Jake]

Cespedes can get you wins on the basepaths and on defense, something this guy won't do. He has one tool - his bat - and it has to pan out or he's completely useless. Cespedes can have a down year at the plate (96 wRC+ this year) but still become a 2 WAR player (1.6 WAR so far, on track for 2.3/2.4 per Steamer/ZiPs)

[Balta1701]

Cespedes can get you wins on the basepaths and on defense, something this guy won't do. He has one tool - his bat - and it has to pan out or he's completely useless. Cespedes can have a down year at the plate (96 wRC+ this year) but still become a 2 WAR player (1.6 WAR so far, on track for 2.3/2.4 per Steamer/ZiPs)

Let's note some of the actual scouting numbers. These were from earlier in the thread:

Scouting grades

Hit: 70

Power: 70

Glove: 50

Run: 40

Arm: 50

 

Arm obviously doesn't matter much. Here's one version for Cespedes:

Hit: 30-40

Power: 60

Arm: 50

Glove: 40-50 (projected as a corner OF)

Run: 50-60.

 

They projected him as a higher risk guy because they were more concerned about his hit tool. This guy probably won't steal 30 bases, but he's not going to be Konerko on the bases or in the field. It should also improve our IF and our overall ability on the basepaths...and the fact that the hit tool is so much more developed is what hopefully should give confidence in him stepping onto the field day 1 and tearing it up.

 

[harfman77]

Let's note some of the actual scouting numbers. These were from earlier in the thread:

 

 

Arm obviously doesn't matter much. Here's one version for Cespedes:

Hit: 30-40

Power: 60

Arm: 50

Glove: 40-50 (projected as a corner OF)

Run: 50-60.

 

They projected him as a higher risk guy because they were more concerned about his hit tool. This guy probably won't steal 30 bases, but he's not going to be Konerko on the bases or in the field. It should also improve our IF and our overall ability on the basepaths...and the fact that the hit tool is so much more developed is what hopefully should give confidence in him stepping onto the field day 1 and tearing it up.

 

I wonder how those numbers would compare with Franks in his age 26 season? He has two plus to plus plus tools, two average tools, and one less than average tool. It will be interesting to see how those numbers translate and with the $$ the Sox have freed up coupled with the flaming pile that is this years free agency class, he should be the teams #1 target.

[southsider2k5]

Ding ding ding.

 

I want Abreu, but let's stop throwing around crazy numbers.

 

Judging by the marketplace, I don't think the numbers you are seeing are that crazy. In fact they might be low if recent market trends are any indication, usually these things surprise to the high side, and not low.

[Eminor3rd]

Cespedes can get you wins on the basepaths and on defense, something this guy won't do. He has one tool - his bat - and it has to pan out or he's completely useless. Cespedes can have a down year at the plate (96 wRC+ this year) but still become a 2 WAR player (1.6 WAR so far, on track for 2.3/2.4 per Steamer/ZiPs)

 

You're right, but Cespedes doesn't have anything like a 70 hit tool. Certainly, those scouting grades may not hold up when everyone gets a good look at him, but if he's really a 70 hit/70 power guy, he will have no problem touching 2 WAR even on bad years. If that guy is 26, you give him $10m per year without thinking about it -- especially nothing in the system to hold down first base. And especially when your offense is embarrassingly bad.

[iamshack]

Where's that picture of a dead horse when you need it.

And yet you still don't seem to understand the point.

 

I just don't know what more to say. As Jake has mentioned, the market is finite and it is actually growing more illiquid as the years go on, and yet people want to dump productive players for nothing all for the opportunity to jump into this increasingly illiquid marketplace.

[Dick Allen]

One thing that might keep his price a little lower is the Dodgers have no place for him.

[iamshack]

One thing that might keep his price a little lower is the Dodgers have no place for him.

A lot of speculation that the Dodgers might really emerge as the favorites to sign Cano, too.

[Eminor3rd]

A lot of speculation that the Dodgers might really emerge as the favorites to sign Cano, too.

 

Lol, their payroll is going to be like $300m

[LittleHurt05]

A lot of speculation that the Dodgers might really emerge as the favorites to sign Cano, too.

 

Really? I thought that when Jay-Z became his agent, it became a lock that he stayed with the Yankees.

Edited August 13, 2013 by LittleHurt05

[iamshack]

Really? I thought that when Jay-Z became his agent, it became a lock that he stayed with the Yankees.

Colin was on this morning saying that the negotiations thus far have been an absolute mess.