Avisail Garcia is the truth.

[Balta1701]

Plus as fast as he is, they can't play as deep as the usual powerhitters depth.

To keep this up though he's going to have to develop that power more. A ton of bloops to right is great but to keep people honest he has to start pulling that inside pitch harder when guys give it to him.

[Steve9347]

Avisail Garcia is the only reason to watch the White Sox.

 

And I'm still not watching.

[Rowand44]

To keep this up though he's going to have to develop that power more. A ton of bloops to right is great but to keep people honest he has to start pulling that inside pitch harder when guys give it to him.

Yup. We all know he's a strong dude but the power for whatever reason just isn't there yet, until that starts to develop, teams will start playing him different to take away some of those bloop hits.

 

Avisail Garcia is the only reason to watch the White Sox.

 

And I'm still not watching.

Marcus Semien is the chosen one, how dare you not love him.

Edited September 5, 2013 by Rowand44

[Jerksticks]

To keep this up though he's going to have to develop that power more. A ton of bloops to right is great but to keep people honest he has to start pulling that inside pitch harder when guys give it to him.

 

I see some Joe Mauer in his approach to the outer half of the strike zone. This bodes well for his future in 2 strike counts, but you're right, it would be nice to see him punish some guys inside earlier in his ABs. He's shown he can recognize and punish hangers which is good too.

[southsider2k5]

Yup. We all know he's a strong dude but the power for whatever reason just isn't there yet, until that starts to develop, teams will start playing him different to take away some of those bloop hits.

 

 

Marcus Semien is the chosen one, how dare you not love him.

 

It is there somewhere. Chris Rongey saw him hit a ball off of the Comcast fundamentals deck facade in BP.

[Balta1701]

I see some Joe Mauer in his approach to the outer half of the strike zone. This bodes well for his future in 2 strike counts, but you're right, it would be nice to see him punish some guys inside earlier in his ABs. He's shown he can recognize and punish hangers which is good too.

From the right side I'll go with more Jeter-y. He's definitely got a serious inside-out action to his swing right now, that's why he keeps dropping balls in front of the right fielder, it's the perfect swing to do that. It definitely means he won't get beat on the outside pitch but he's also going to have to drive balls down the RF line to keep the RF honest and pull balls to LF to keep the pitchers honest to really damage people.

 

But frankly, I do like seeing the inside out action on his swing. For a guy his age that's a lot better than trying to pull everything.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Garcia has now stepped up to the plate 100 times in a White Sox uniform.

 

He is hitting .344.

 

Unfortunately he is also striking out 24% of the time while only walking 5% of it.

[lasttriptotulsa]

It is there somewhere. Chris Rongey saw him hit a ball off of the Comcast fundamentals deck facade in BP.

 

Plus both of his homers were hit to the right of center. It's obvious he has power, he just needs to learn how to elevate more.

[Eminor3rd]

The stronger you are, the more sustainable that is because OF's have to play deeper.

 

To add to that, when you're as strong as Garcia, those shanks go over infielders heads.

 

Not to the tune of a .448 BABIP, my friends. I don't like it any more than you guys do, but he is making bad contact on too many bad pitches that he should be taking.

[Eminor3rd]

Garcia has now stepped up to the plate 100 times in a White Sox uniform.

 

He is hitting .344.

 

Unfortunately he is also striking out 24% of the time while only walking 5% of it.

 

And therein lies the issue. If you look at his plate discipline numbers, you see that he is swinging at substantially more pitches out of the zone than league average (38% to 26%) and also making singinficantly LESS contact than average on pitches in the zone (79% to 87%). These number are all approximately in line with his career number with Detroit.

 

Don't misunderstand -- by no means am I giving up on Garcia. I'm just pointing out that he has not actually turned any kind of corner with us, he's just getting really lucky on his batted balls.

[Jake]

The 24-5 numbers are fine, by the way. That's what he is going to be.

[Eminor3rd]

The 24-5 numbers are fine, by the way. That's what he is going to be.

 

Right, generally speaking, it's pointless to will him into being anything but a high K/low BB guy, but you gotta hit a tons of bombs to make 24/5 work with a .300ish BABIP. And it's not because walks are good or K's are bad, but because they are by products of an approach. It's not that we want him to walk, it's that we want him to take bad pitches and swing at good ones.

[iamshack]

Right, generally speaking, it's pointless to will him into being anything but a high K/low BB guy, but you gotta hit a tons of bombs to make 24/5 work with a .300ish BABIP. And it's not because walks are good or K's are bad, but because they are by products of an approach. It's not that we want him to walk, it's that we want him to take bad pitches and swing at good ones.

Unless he turns into Vlad...then he can swing at whatever the hell he wants

[witesoxfan]

The thing is, there just aren't a lot of guys with a 5:1 K/BB that are ever highly successful. That's too little contact and too much bad pitch swinging. That's something that can and almost certainly will improve, especially from a young player, but something closer to Starling Marte's .282/.343/.443 is probably more likely with those peripherals, especially once he starts actually hitting for power. If he can be the defender and baserunner that Marte is, than a 4-5 WAR player is OK by me.

[iamshack]

The thing is, there just aren't a lot of guys with a 5:1 K/BB that are ever highly successful. That's too little contact and too much bad pitch swinging. That's something that can and almost certainly will improve, especially from a young player, but something closer to Starling Marte's .282/.343/.443 is probably more likely with those peripherals, especially once he starts actually hitting for power. If he can be the defender and baserunner that Marte is, than a 4-5 WAR player is OK by me.

I will admit, I am not particularly in love with how he looks out there fielding...

[Eminor3rd]

Unless he turns into Vlad...then he can swing at whatever the hell he wants

 

Exactly -- a ton of bombs

 

But that's sort of the thing. Vlad swung at everything, but he also HIT everything. You know what his career K rate was? 10.9%! And even he walked at a career 8.1%. And that's because HIS zone contact rate was 89%, compared to Garcia's 70-something. Vlad was freak because he had a legendary hit tool. Garcia has like a 40 grade hit tool.

 

Man, Vlad was cool as hell.

[witesoxfan]

Exactly -- a ton of bombs

 

But that's sort of the thing. Vlad swung at everything, but he also HIT everything. You know what his career K rate was? 10.9%! And even he walked at a career 8.1%. And that's because HIS zone contact rate was 89%, compared to Garcia's 70-something. Vlad was freak because he had a legendary hit tool. Garcia has like a 40 grade hit tool.

 

Man, Vlad was cool as hell.

 

Is contact considered just hitting a ball, or hitting it in fair territory?

[Eminor3rd]

Is contact considered just hitting a ball, or hitting it in fair territory?

 

That's a good question, not sure. The definition isn't too clear: "Z-Contact% - Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone (PITCHf/x)"

 

If I had to guess, I'd say it does include foul balls.

[witesoxfan]

That's a good question, not sure. The definition isn't too clear: "Z-Contact% - Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone (PITCHf/x)"

 

If I had to guess, I'd say it does include foul balls.

 

I would guess so too. I mean, in 2003, Vlad had an O-Swing of 34.8% and an O-Contact of 58.3% (while also Z-Swing and Contact at about 83% and 87%) and he walked at 13.5% and struck out at 11.3%. The strikeouts can be explained, but if he were swinging at 1/3 of all balls and putting those in play every 3/5 times, it'd seem to be essentially impossible for him to walk at 13.5%, no?.

[Eminor3rd]

I would guess so too. I mean, in 2003, Vlad had an O-Swing of 34.8% and an O-Contact of 58.3% (while also Z-Swing and Contact at about 83% and 87%) and he walked at 13.5% and struck out at 11.3%. The strikeouts can be explained, but if he were swinging at 1/3 of all balls and putting those in play every 3/5 times, it'd seem to be essentially impossible for him to walk at 13.5%, no?.

 

Yeah, I would think that would have to be the case. I wonder how many pitches he saw. I'd guess he had a ton of long at bats where he fouled several pitches off before eventually getting a walk.

[witesoxfan]

Yeah, I would think that would have to be the case. I wonder how many pitches he saw. I'd guess he had a ton of long at bats where he fouled several pitches off before eventually getting a walk.

 

That was my thought too. A lot of 1-2 and 0-2 counts, because he didn't take pitches in the zone, and also a lot of swings on 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1 counts. Also, 210 of his walks from 2000 to 2008 were intentional passes (and, in fact, he was the league leader in IBBs except during Bonds' historic 4 year run).

 

That's the other thing though too...in 2003, he walked 63 times, and 22 of those were intentional, and how are those figured? Those aren't just out of the zone, they're supposed to technically be considered unhittable. If those don't factor in, then it makes a bit more sense, but even still, it doesn't.

 

Seriously, Vlad Guerrero has to be a statistician's favorite case study, or somewhere near the top anyways.

[RockRaines]

Vlad in his prime was phenomenal. Alot of people are going to forget how athletic the guy was.

[witesoxfan]

I think the real question we all want to ask about Avisail Garcia: what's his chill to pull ratio?

[southsider2k5]

I think the real question we all want to ask about Avisail Garcia: what's his chill to pull ratio?

 

Forget that stuff. The guy is a retweeter. That is the worst thing of all.

[Balta1701]

Right, generally speaking, it's pointless to will him into being anything but a high K/low BB guy, but you gotta hit a tons of bombs to make 24/5 work with a .300ish BABIP. And it's not because walks are good or K's are bad, but because they are by products of an approach. It's not that we want him to walk, it's that we want him to take bad pitches and swing at good ones.

One thing worth adding to this conversation is that between Garcia's speed and inside out swing, there is precedent for him being able to sustain a BABIP substantially over .300.

 

The guy who comes to my mind first with an inside out swing as a righty is Jeter, yeah it's not a perfect comparison but run with it for a moment. Jeter has over his career (12000 PA's) put up a .354 BABIP. Yeah it's not over .400 so it still has to come down, but Jeter is legendary for wearing pitchers out going the other way and we've seen some of that from Garcia so far.

 

Add every caveat you want, needs to cut down on the K's, swing at better pitches, show more power, etc., but its definitely worth remembering that guys with speed who spray the ball all over the field are tough to defend and they get a lot of balls that just drop.