8.19

[Balta1701]

I didn't realize he was already 29. Still, he seems to be a pretty good defensive 3B while generally showing an above average bat. He might not be the 145 wRC+ guy he showed last year, but I don't think he's the 99 wRC+ he has shown this year either. I think he'd prove to be an above average bat with good defense and mediocre to poor base running.

 

The question remains how long he can do that. Even if you trade for him, how long can you realistically expect him to stay healthy and productive? That's where I toe the line.

 

They can have Rienzo and Mitchell then. There's just no legitimate way I can deal them one of the stud lefties

The problem with even asking how long he'll stay productive is that he's in his final arbitration year next year, so he's a free agent at the end of 2014.

 

If the Sox were willing to extend him before the year, they could easily find themselves with a worse contract than Teahen's extension was if he just performed like this. OTOH, if he had a solid year, great, that helps the Sox next year, but then are we going to be the high bidder for him or does he walk for nothing after having a good year for us while we were rebuilding?

[Marty34]

A deal for Santiago or Quintana will have to target a Colby Rasmus-type, meaning a young hitter with pedigree who hasn't broken through yet.

[beautox]

I just don't see the sox and Padres matching up, I see the padres emptying their farm and moving one of Blanks or Alonso along with hedges and friend for the likes of David Price

[daggins]

This may not be terrible popular but... Mark Trumbo?

 

The Angels need good young pitching, we need good young hitting, we have an open spot at 1B...

 

I mean yeah he has a .300 OBP but he also mashes 30 taters a year in a much more RH-neutral home park.

 

Santiago for Trumbo? I'd do it.

[Jake]

Rienzo and Snodgress would probably be about the right price for Headley

[fathom]

This may not be terrible popular but... Mark Trumbo?

 

The Angels need good young pitching, we need good young hitting, we have an open spot at 1B...

 

I mean yeah he has a .300 OBP but he also mashes 30 taters a year in a much more RH-neutral home park.

 

Santiago for Trumbo? I'd do it.

 

Yes please

[Jerksticks]

I love that we get to sell Santiago or Q for a good young player. Almost feels free since their greatness just fell into our lap. It's like stealing.

 

Can anybody compile a list of 20-24 yr old 3B breakout types?

[TaylorStSox]

I would need an uber prospect for Quintana, or Santiago, for that matter. I do like Quintana more though.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

ITT: Chase Headley never hit 31 HR with a 7.2 WAR, or even ever had a 4.4 WAR season, and he is only worth Scott Snodgress.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I'd take Chase Headley for MOST of our young pitchers, but Mark Trumbo would also be a nice get.

 

Also, I'd like to see what the Dbacks have in their plans for Matt Davidson.

[Balta1701]

ITT: Chase Headley never hit 31 HR with a 7.2 WAR, or even ever had a 4.4 WAR season, and he is only worth Scott Snodgress.

Chase Headley also is not subject to MLB's collective bargaining agreement so he will not be a free agent after 2014 and can be paid $500k any time, and his 2013 season did not happen.

[Jake]

I've never been a big fan of Headley and acquiring him is making less and less sense over time

[witesoxfan]

ITT: Chase Headley never hit 31 HR with a 7.2 WAR, or even ever had a 4.4 WAR season, and he is only worth Scott Snodgress.

 

He's also had a seasons with 1.4 WAR, 2.3 WAR, and this year he is at 2.5 WAR. There is precedent for him being a relative underachieiver and being a mediocre player. Beyond that, he's a free agent after next season and could command anywhere between $8 and $12 million annually, potentially signing a 4 year deal for $48 million deal heading into his age 30 season. That legitimately could be as poor as a Teahen or Dunn type deal.

Edited August 21, 2013 by witesoxfan

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I've never been a big fan of Headley and acquiring him is making less and less sense over time

Even if you were a fan of Headley acquiring him for any package much less one of our stud ML or MiL pitchers does not fit into the the Sox plans. Can't give up any talent for a free agent to be .It just doesn't jibe with the what the front office is trying to do now. San Diego may shop him this winter but more than likely will hope he rebounds in the half half of 2014 and trade him at the deadline.

Edited August 21, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

He's also had a seasons with 1.4 WAR, 2.3 WAR, and this year he is at 2.5 WAR. There is precedent for him being a relative underachieiver and being a mediocre player. Beyond that, he's a free agent after next season and could command anywhere between $8 and $12 million annually, potentially signing a 4 year deal for $48 million deal heading into his age 30 season. That legitimately could be as poor as a Teahen or Dunn type deal.

 

He's doing SOO bad this year, a year in which no one wants him anymore, that he will end up with a WAR at about 3, which is worth $15M.

 

[Balta1701]

He's doing SOO bad this year, a year in which no one wants him anymore, that he will end up with a WAR at about 3, which is worth $15M.

And Gillaspie is on track to end up with a WAR of about 1 as a rookie.

 

Gilaspie is paid $500k this year and will make the same next year. Headley is paid $8.575 million this year and will probably make over $10.5 million next year.

 

So, let's say we trade Rienzo for him. We are trading Rienzo, taking on $10 million+, and doing so to get 2 extra WAR over what Gillaspie would give assuming both repeat their seasons this year.

 

But if 2 WAR is worth $10 million on the free agent market, then why give up Rienzo or anything else at all for the rights to spend that money when you could just go on the free agent market and buy a $10 million, 2 WAR upgrade?

 

Basically for that deal to be a smart deal for the White Sox, what they trade away has to give 0 WAR. The only way trading something for Headley next year makes sense in WAR terms is if that player would be expected to produce 0 excess WAR beyond their salary.

[witesoxfan]

He's doing SOO bad this year, a year in which no one wants him anymore, that he will end up with a WAR at about 3, which is worth $15M.

I'm not sure why you are being so hyperbolic and confrontational about this. Nobody has said that they don't outright want him, but he has been a below average player offensively. In fact, the 3 biggest reasons he's going to be worth almost 3 WAR are his defense, the fact that he plays 3B, and the fact that he doesn't totally suck. Really, 3 WAR is a slightly above average player and is not the type of guy you want to give up a ton to get. On top of that, there are plenty of genuine concerns to be had. First, he'll be 30 next year. Next, he's likely cost $10 mill next year. On top of that, he'll likely require a new contract during his age 31-34 seasons (at least) which will probably be worth in the neighborhood of $48-50 million. I think those raise enough red flags to show some concern regarding the idea of giving up a substantial package for him.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

And Gillaspie is on track to end up with a WAR of about 1 as a rookie.

 

Gilaspie is paid $500k this year and will make the same next year. Headley is paid $8.575 million this year and will probably make over $10.5 million next year.

 

So, let's say we trade Rienzo for him. We are trading Rienzo, taking on $10 million+, and doing so to get 2 extra WAR over what Gillaspie would give assuming both repeat their seasons this year.

 

But if 2 WAR is worth $10 million on the free agent market, then why give up Rienzo or anything else at all for the rights to spend that money when you could just go on the free agent market and buy a $10 million, 2 WAR upgrade?

 

Basically for that deal to be a smart deal for the White Sox, what they trade away has to give 0 WAR. The only way trading something for Headley next year makes sense in WAR terms is if that player would be expected to produce 0 excess WAR beyond their salary.

 

Well, first of all, Gillaspie is not on track to reach 1.0 WAR. We have about 5 weeks left in the season, and he is sitting at 0.5 WAR, and his 2nd half has been worse than his 1st half. He may actually never get higher than his current 0.5. Headley, on the other hand, has had a pretty even split between halfs, so a 3.0 WAR is definitely a possibility.

 

So we are talking a 2.5 WAR difference, or about $12.5M, for a guy like Headley who everyone is writing off. Assuming Headley can find a middle ground between his "bad" 2013 and his MVP-like 2012, I think a 4+ WAR is within reach, especially if he gets away from Petco Park and is hitting at US Cellular. We are then talking about a 3.5 WAR difference, or about $17.5M from Gillaspie to Headley, assuming Gillaspie repeats his "okay" performance at 3rd and Headley bounces back to a good but not great hitter.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I'm not sure why you are being so hyperbolic and confrontational about this. Nobody has said that they don't outright want him, but he has been a below average player offensively. In fact, the 3 biggest reasons he's going to be worth almost 3 WAR are his defense, the fact that he plays 3B, and the fact that he doesn't totally suck. Really, 3 WAR is a slightly above average player and is not the type of guy you want to give up a ton to get. On top of that, there are plenty of genuine concerns to be had. First, he'll be 30 next year. Next, he's likely cost $10 mill next year. On top of that, he'll likely require a new contract during his age 31-34 seasons (at least) which will probably be worth in the neighborhood of $48-50 million. I think those raise enough red flags to show some concern regarding the idea of giving up a substantial package for him.

 

I don't recall a "substantial package" between discussed here. I do recall people BARELY willing to concede Scott Snodgress for him though. Even a Matt Lindstrom swap was discussed as being fair value. LOL.

Edited August 21, 2013 by Chilihead90

[Jake]

WAR accounts for the ballpark you play in

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

WAR accounts for the ballpark you play in

 

fWAR does? Niiiice.

[Balta1701]

Well, first of all, Gillaspie is not on track to reach 1.0 WAR. We have about 5 weeks left in the season, and he is sitting at 0.5 WAR, and his 2nd half has been worse than his 1st half. He may actually never get higher than his current 0.5. Headley, on the other hand, has had a pretty even split between halfs, so a 3.0 WAR is definitely a possibility.

 

So we are talking a 2.5 WAR difference, or about $12.5M, for a guy like Headley who everyone is writing off. Assuming Headley can find a middle ground between his "bad" 2013 and his MVP-like 2012, I think a 4+ WAR is within reach, especially if he gets away from Petco Park and is hitting at US Cellular. We are then talking about a 3.5 WAR difference, or about $17.5M from Gillaspie to Headley, assuming Gillaspie repeats his "okay" performance at 3rd and Headley bounces back to a good but not great hitter.

Great, and you're paying him $11 million or so for the right to have that extra performance. So even in your ideal situation that he seriously improves on this season despite getting another year older and Gillaspie does not improve, the most you've come up with in excess value is about $5-6 million.

 

If you traded away Rienzo, for example, and he put up 1.3 WAR next year, then the White Sox lose that trade next year, and that doesn't take into account the next 5 years of his service time or any performance above that.

 

Giving up any of the Sox's starting pitchers for Headley looks like a really low upside move when you factor in his salary.

[Marty34]

Brett Lawrie fits that mold.

 

He'd be on the list of players I'd approve of trading one of those two for. They have to find some left-handed hitting though. One of the reasons I think Morrison makes sense.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Great, and you're paying him $11 million or so for the right to have that extra performance. So even in your ideal situation that he seriously improves on this season despite getting another year older and Gillaspie does not improve, the most you've come up with in excess value is about $5-6 million.

 

If you traded away Rienzo, for example, and he put up 1.3 WAR next year, then the White Sox lose that trade next year, and that doesn't take into account the next 5 years of his service time or any performance above that.

 

Giving up any of the Sox's starting pitchers for Headley looks like a really low upside move when you factor in his salary.

 

Ok.

[witesoxfan]

I don't recall a "substantial package" between discussed here. I do recall people BARELY willing to concede Scott Snodgress for him though. Even a Matt Lindstrom swap was discussed as being fair value. LOL.

 

Santiago or Quintana is substantial. Rienzo and Snodgress is substantial. If it costs more than that, either some team is overpaying or San Diego is asking too much.