Fantasy football advice thread

[Steve9347]

Just a mini question, why are people going RB first? The only RB worthwhile is Adrian Peterson when he's healthy. In normal scoring leagues, especially ESPN ones, the QB is always the better pick since RBs these days work as tandems for the most part and they are so inconsistent year to year. AP has been the only one who if healthy, is a top 5 RB every year. The rest fluctuate wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much.

 

Also as draft strategies, I also suggest picking QBs who are in tough divisions as they won't be resting come playoff time for you. Matt Ryan, Drew Brees > Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning.

So the NFC North isn't tough? Interesting.

 

Also, it's basic math. You have to start two running backs and only one quarterback in most leagues. I disagree wholeheartedly on the tandems - the NFL is getting away from that again, thank God. I'd say there's 14 or so backs who are workhorses.

 

Are you trying to tell me any of the below aren't clear-cut #1 running backs?

 

Adrian Peterson

Doug Martin

LeSean McCoy

Marshawn Lynch

Jamaal Charles

Ray Rice

CJ Spiller

Arian Foster

Trent Richardson

Matt Forte

Stevan Ridley

Alfred MOrris

Maurice Jones-Drew

DeMarco Murray

Reggie Bush

Lamar Miller

Darren McFadden

 

Sure, they might lose some touches to backups, but these guys are all going to get the bulk of the carries. And you need to start two of them (and I'm starting three RBs with a FLEX). Good luck not having garbage out there if you pass on one to snag Matt Ryan.

 

EDIT: And you're god-damned crazy if you think I want one of the bottom four listed above as a top two RB for me, so of course I'm taking them rounds 1 and two

 

Meanwhile, QB is stacked. 2 points per game makes up the difference between a Drew Brees (last year) and a guy you can get in the 6th round. And you only need one of them.

 

It's basic, simple math.

 

I took RBs with my first 3 picks and still had Matt Stafford whom I reached on in my big draft. I'd much rather gamble on his upside than take Drew Brees at 10 and be completely f***ed.

Edited August 28, 2013 by Steve9347

[Rowand44]

Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Peyton, Cam, RGIII, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Kaepernik, Romo, Wilson, Luck should all be good fantasy qb's if you're in a 12 team league. Try to find 24 rb's that can be good fantasy rb's...

Edited August 28, 2013 by Rowand44

[bigruss]

I'm getting signed up for an auction league, don't really want to do it but whatever, should be interesting if anything else. No idea how to strategize for it.

[witesoxfan]

Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Peyton, Cam, RGIII, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Kaepernik, Romo, Wilson, Luck should all be good fantasy qb's if you're in a 12 team league. Try to find 24 rb's that can be good fantasy rb's...

 

That's exactly it. You can find probably 16 QBs in the league right now who can at least be serviceable. You can do the same thing with receivers too.

 

FYI, 28 running backs rushed for over 700 yards last year. There were 24 WR's in the AFC who had that many receiving yards last year, and 5 more tight ends too. The NFC had more too.

 

This is coming from a guy who has drafted a QB with my 1st pick 2 years in a row and having said QB lead me to the playoffs 2 years in a row too - Rodgers and Brees. If you can find value in RBs later, then do so...I did with Martin last year and it was awesome. If not, then take a workhorse early and work your magic with receivers and QBs and tight ends.

[Soxbadger]

I generally go double RB, but if a guy like Brees/Rodgers is available at the end of the first round its hard to argue picking them over the 10th best rb.

 

In the Soxtalk league I basically went against my normal strategy and took all rb fliers (and unfortunately on the day of the draft Pead was listed as the starter so that didnt help, probably should have taken both, oh well.) and paired it with solid qb and wrs.

 

Scarcity matters, but you dont want to reach to deep.

[Rowand44]

Ya I actually took Brees with my first round pick last year ha, but that's because having Lynch kept as a late round keeper gave me a ton of flexibility and with Brady, Rodgers and Stafford off the board and having no idea what the 1st year starters/Peyton Manning were capable of, it made the most sense for me at the time. But ya, 95 percent of the time I'm waiting on a quarterback.

[witesoxfan]

Ya I actually took Brees with my first round pick last year ha, but that's because having Lynch kept as a late round keeper gave me a ton of flexibility and with Brady, Rodgers and Stafford off the board and having no idea what the 1st year starters/Peyton Manning were capable of, it made the most sense for me at the time. But ya, 95 percent of the time I'm waiting on a quarterback.

 

My sister plays in a league with her husband and his buddies, and she started this in 2010. That first year, I helped out a ton, and I told her the name to know is Arian Foster and told her explicitly not to tell her husband. She did anyways, and he thought I was crazy. She asked every round until the 4th came around when I told her to finally pull the trigger. That was a reach, but a calculated reach.

 

He led her to the championship that year.

 

There are always going to be running backs that go in the mid rounds that will provide good value, but finding them is important. Also, picking up handcuff guys is a good thing to do too, especially young ones when the guy in front has a lot of miles. Ben Tate and Bernard Pierce are the big two that come to mind immediately. Also, rookies tend to fall but they can have big impacts (Giovani Bernard and Eddie Lacy are the big ones here). Finally, those that are injured but should come back healthy can make for good values, but they can screw you too...looking at you Ryan Mathews. f*** that guy.

[nitetrain8601]

So the NFC North isn't tough? Interesting.

 

Also, it's basic math. You have to start two running backs and only one quarterback in most leagues. I disagree wholeheartedly on the tandems - the NFL is getting away from that again, thank God. I'd say there's 14 or so backs who are workhorses.

 

Are you trying to tell me any of the below aren't clear-cut #1 running backs?

 

Adrian Peterson - Clear Cut #1 and Top 5 back - No argument there.

Doug Martin - 2nd year RB - I'm weery

LeSean McCoy - Usually is injured

Marshawn Lynch - He's been a consistent top 5 back for the past 5 years

Jamaal Charles - Came out of nowhere, already been injured

Ray Rice - Only guy you can really make a case for given that he has no injury history and is multi-threat

CJ Spiller - Fred Thomas

Arian Foster - Oft Injured

Trent Richardson - Got a lot of TDs, not that many yards

Matt Forte - Michael Bush takes the TD

Stevan Ridley - See my previous post on him. Any NE RB is never a good argument

Alfred MOrris - I'll give you him because he was a workhorse, got the yards and TDs

Maurice Jones-Drew - Downhill

DeMarco Murray - What? As a Cowboys fan, I know he's not a good argument for fantasy FB. Heck, none have been since E. Smith. Look at his numbers

Reggie Bush - Hell no

Lamar Miller - What?

Darren McFadden - Injury prone

 

Minus about 4, all of those RBs either share touches because of talent or injury. Or never were that good like DeMarco Murray or Reggie Bush. Seriously, look up the numbers.

 

Sure, they might lose some touches to backups, but these guys are all going to get the bulk of the carries. And you need to start two of them (and I'm starting three RBs with a FLEX). Good luck not having garbage out there if you pass on one to snag Matt Ryan.

 

Meanwhile, Matt Ryan will have another great year passing with his three receiving weapons and line and RB.

 

EDIT: And you're god-damned crazy if you think I want one of the bottom four listed above as a top two RB for me, so of course I'm taking them rounds 1 and two

 

Meanwhile, QB is stacked. 2 points per game makes up the difference between a Drew Brees (last year) and a guy you can get in the 6th round. And you only need one of them.

 

Maybe you're in a different league because 2 points per game was not the different in any of my ESPN leagues. And also, consistency is huge in FF. You may have a QB who throws for 400 yards one week, then 100 the following. A guy like Brees will always get you 300 yards with the TDs. And more importantly, he'll be playing all game for you in the playoffs.

 

 

I took RBs with my first 3 picks and still had Matt Stafford whom I reached on in my big draft. I'd much rather gamble on his upside than take Drew Brees at 10 and be completely f***ed.

 

Stafford throws for a lot of yards, but he also throws a lot of incompletions and picks. Again, maybe the scoring is different in your leagues, but I've never seen a team with Matt Stafford as their QB make it anywhere near the championship in anything.

 

[nitetrain8601]

Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Peyton, Cam, RGIII, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Kaepernik, Romo, Wilson, Luck should all be good fantasy qb's if you're in a 12 team league. Try to find 24 rb's that can be good fantasy rb's...

 

It's not that hard because 3 or 4 of those RBs will get injured or lose their jobs. It happens every year. Then someone like me ends up picking them up.

[Rowand44]

Stafford throws for a lot of yards, but he also throws a lot of incompletions and picks. Again, maybe the scoring is different in your leagues, but I've never seen a team with Matt Stafford as their QB make it anywhere near the championship in anything.

Actually, ironically enough the guy who won my league 2 years ago had Stafford as his starter and nobody cares about incompletions in fantasy. The guy who won my league last year had Matt Ryan as his starter who he obviously didn't have to waste a first rounder on either.

 

It's not that hard because 3 or 4 of those RBs will get injured or lose their jobs. It happens every year. Then someone like me ends up picking them up.

So you just have the number 1 waiver priority all through out the season?

[nitetrain8601]

Actually, ironically enough the guy who won my league 2 years ago had Stafford as his starter and nobody cares about incompletions in fantasy. The guy who won my league last year had Matt Ryan as his starter who he obviously didn't have to waste a first rounder on either.

 

 

So you just have the number 1 waiver priority all through out the season?

 

You don't need it throughout the year because not every team needs RB.

[witesoxfan]

Doug Martin - 2nd year RB - I'm weery - REALLY? HOW? HE WAS A GREAT BACK LAST YEAR AND THE OLINE IMPROVED

LeSean McCoy - Usually is injured - IN 4 YEARS, HE HAS MISSED 6 GAMES

CJ Spiller - Fred Thomas - FRED JACKSON, AND YOU OBVIOUSLY HAVE NOT PAID ATTENTION. MARRONE IS USING SPILLER AS HIS BELLCOW WITH JACKSON ONLY SPELLING HIM

Arian Foster - Oft Injured - IN 3 YEARS AS A STARTER, HE HAS MISSED 3 GAMES

Trent Richardson - Got a lot of TDs, not that many yards - HE WAS A BANGED UP ROOKIE, NOW HE IS HEALTHY, AND HE IS A BELLCOW WITH BRANDON JACKSON AS A BACKUP

Matt Forte - Michael Bush takes the TD - AND ALMOST ALWAYS GOOD FOR 1500 YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE

Stevan Ridley - See my previous post on him. Any NE RB is never a good argument - THIS IS A FLAWED ARGUMENT. RIDLEY IS THEIR 1ST, 2ND, AND GOALLINE BACK. HE IS GOING TO BE BUSY

Maurice Jones-Drew - Downhill - WORTH A FLIER LATER AND THERE'S STILL NOBODY BEHIND HIM

Reggie Bush - Hell no - GOOD PPR CHOICE, UNLESS YOU TRUST MIKEL LESHOURE OR JOIQUE BELL

Lamar Miller - What? - #1 BACK AND GOING TO GET A TON OF CARRIES

 

Please let me play in pay leagues with you so you can pick up guys like Rashad Jennings and Daryl Richardson. I don't think I've seen rankings this misguided in a really, really long time.

Edited August 28, 2013 by witesoxfan

[nitetrain8601]

Please let me play in pay leagues with you so you can pick up guys like Rashad Jennings and Daryl Richardson. I don't think I've seen rankings this misguided in a really, really long time.

 

Injuries do not always force you to sit. You guys should know that. But in a league like the NFL, even playing dinged up can produce terrible results. Look at the gamelogs if you don't believe me. Plus, we're arguing how taking those guys early over QBs is a very bad move as QBs are much more consistent than RBs, year to year in fantasy.

Edited August 28, 2013 by nitetrain8601

[witesoxfan]

Injuries do not always force you to sit. You guys should know that. But in a league like the NFL, even playing dinged up can produce terrible results. Look at the gamelogs if you don't believe me. Plus, we're arguing how taking those guys early over QBs is a very bad move as QBs are much more consistent than RBs, year to year in fantasy.

 

Say you go QB-RB-RB instead of RB-RB-QB, for hypothetical purposes.

 

You can see your top 3 QB produce 22 PPW, your RB1 produce 13 PPW (1200 rushing, 400 receiving, 8 TDs), and your RB2 produce 8 PPW (128 points, which can be a 750/170/6 TD season, which is about what you'd expect). Total is 43 points, which is pretty solid. In the second, you see your RB1 produce 16 PPW (1560 rushing, 400 receiving, 10 TDs), your RB2 produces 13 PPW, and your QB produces 15 PPW - total is 44 points, which is obviously forced in this situation, but not entirely unreasonable and, in fact, perhaps unfair against the second scenario.

 

THEN, full well KNOWING that RBs get hurt more often, you can lose either one of your top backs, plug in your RB3, and still get 8 PPW. If you lose your top back in the first scenario, you are looking at, like 22/8/5, and you are left hoping your QB can pull a miracle out of his ass every week.

 

Both Rowand and I have said that taking QBs in the first round is not necessarily a bad move, but more often then not, in standard leagues, drafting running backs will be the logical choice. That's why RBs go so high. There are simply not a lot of guys out there who can get you the points that you need...if you're lucky, you get 2 good ones plus 2-3 others with upside, and the difference between #1 and #15 and #31 is incredibly large. Receivers and QBs though have a wide variety, and while the difference in QBs between #1 and #15 and #31 is bigger, you only HAVE to play one of those in standard leagues, and there are very few leagues that actually MAKE you play 2. And receivers are ridiculous...as I pointed out there were like 50 receivers last year who caught 700 yards or more, and there are plenty of others who can make up for that difference in PPR leagues (I love when a 8/50/1 game gets me 19 points).

 

Now, if your league allows you to draft play 2 QBs? Your first two picks better be goddamn QBs or you're going to lose.

Edited August 28, 2013 by witesoxfan

[DrunkBomber]

Adrian Peterson - Clear Cut #1 and Top 5 back - No argument there.

Doug Martin - 2nd year RB - I'm weery

LeSean McCoy - Usually is injured

Marshawn Lynch - He's been a consistent top 5 back for the past 5 years

Jamaal Charles - Came out of nowhere, already been injured

Ray Rice - Only guy you can really make a case for given that he has no injury history and is multi-threat

CJ Spiller - Fred Thomas

Arian Foster - Oft Injured

Trent Richardson - Got a lot of TDs, not that many yards

Matt Forte - Michael Bush takes the TD

Stevan Ridley - See my previous post on him. Any NE RB is never a good argument

Alfred MOrris - I'll give you him because he was a workhorse, got the yards and TDs

Maurice Jones-Drew - Downhill

DeMarco Murray - What? As a Cowboys fan, I know he's not a good argument for fantasy FB. Heck, none have been since E. Smith. Look at his numbers

Reggie Bush - Hell no

Lamar Miller - What?

Darren McFadden - Injury prone

 

Minus about 4, all of those RBs either share touches because of talent or injury. Or never were that good like DeMarco Murray or Reggie Bush. Seriously, look up the numbers.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, Matt Ryan will have another great year passing with his three receiving weapons and line and RB.

 

 

 

Maybe you're in a different league because 2 points per game was not the different in any of my ESPN leagues. And also, consistency is huge in FF. You may have a QB who throws for 400 yards one week, then 100 the following. A guy like Brees will always get you 300 yards with the TDs. And more importantly, he'll be playing all game for you in the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

Stafford throws for a lot of yards, but he also throws a lot of incompletions and picks. Again, maybe the scoring is different in your leagues, but I've never seen a team with Matt Stafford as their QB make it anywhere near the championship in anything.

Adrian Peterson - Clear Cut #1 and Top 5 back - No argument there./// Agree, but if youre gonna mention other backs injuries cant forget APs injury too.

 

Doug Martin - 2nd year RB - I'm weery//Martin gets all the carries, can catch the ball and plays in a weaker defensive division. He also single handidly won me a few games last season with insane numbers.

 

LeSean McCoy - Usually is injured///In 3 of his 4 seasons hes played at least 15 games, with the odd year being last season. He will get the bulk of the eagles carries and can also catch passes. Hes 2 years removed from having 20 TDs in a season. If hes usually injured then so is AP

 

Marshawn Lynch - He's been a consistent top 5 back for the past 5 years///Not even close to true. Hes been great the past 2 seasons in Seattle, but the 3 seasons prior to that he averaged under 400 yards and 3 tds per season. Hes a stud now, but he didnt become a "first round" FF RB until last season.

 

Jamaal Charles - Came out of nowhere, already been injured///Very similar to McCoy. Injured 2 seasons ago but other than that has been great, even on bad teams. Has had over 1275 yards in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

 

Ray Rice - Only guy you can really make a case for given that he has no injury history and is multi-threat///Rice has been consistent, but he also loses a lot of value in non ppr formats. He rarely hits yardage bonuses and isnt a big time TD threat. Hes a good back to own and will go early in most drafts.

 

CJ Spiller - Fred Thomas///Assuming you mean Fred Jackson. What about him? This is Spillers show now and if hes healthy he is poised to have a huge season.

 

Arian Foster - Oft Injured///Hes missed 3 games the past 3 seasons since he became the starter. Hes good for 1400 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 500 receiving yards and 12+ TDs.

 

Trent Richardson - Got a lot of TDs, not that many yards///As a rookie, on a bad team, with a rookie QB and no other weapons around him on offense he still had a very productive season. He also had over 50 catches. Hes a workhorse and in FF that has a lot of value.

 

Matt Forte - Michael Bush takes the TD///Forte has been inconsistent in FF. He is similar to Ray Rice but hasnt had an OL or capable play caller until hopefully this season. In ppr format Forte should be going late first round and in standard format in the 2nd. Hes looked great so far this preseason and looks to be used better by Trestman.

 

Stevan Ridley - See my previous post on him. Any NE RB is never a good argument///Normally Id agree. Ridley was used a lot last season and now the Pat's are without Welker, Lloyd, Hernandez and Gronk will be out for a while. He might not be a sure thing, but he has a lot of value and a huge upside.

 

Alfred MOrris - I'll give you him because he was a workhorse, got the yards and TDs///I like Morris, I had him on all but one of my teams last season and he was great. I wish hed catch some passes but I cant complain with what I got from him.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew - Downhill///Dont disagree too much here. He has defied the odds a few times in his career though. Hes been on bad teams every season and has still produced most of the time.

 

DeMarco Murray - What? As a Cowboys fan, I know he's not a good argument for fantasy FB. Heck, none have been since E. Smith. Look at his numbers///He killed me last season. Id stay away from him early but he has an upside.

 

Reggie Bush - Hell no///Tough to say what he will do this season. He could be like Sproles in NO but with more carries.

 

Lamar Miller - What?///Hes gonna be their workhorse and get all the carries. They also added some other offensive weapons but Miller is gonna get the ball a lot. What he does with it remains to be seen but its better to have someone like Miller who you know will be getting touches than having someone who will only be relevant if there is an injury.

 

Darren McFadden - Injury prone//Agreed, but he isnt a 1st or 2nd rounder anymore. I got him in the 7th round, after I had all my starting RBs/WR and Qb. If your team is relying on him as a starter you are probably in trouble, but in later rounds he has a lot of upside.

[Steve9347]

Adrian Peterson - Clear Cut #1 and Top 5 back - No argument there.

Doug Martin - 2nd year RB - I'm weery

LeSean McCoy - Usually is injured

Marshawn Lynch - He's been a consistent top 5 back for the past 5 years

Jamaal Charles - Came out of nowhere, already been injured

Ray Rice - Only guy you can really make a case for given that he has no injury history and is multi-threat

CJ Spiller - Fred Thomas

Arian Foster - Oft Injured

Trent Richardson - Got a lot of TDs, not that many yards

Matt Forte - Michael Bush takes the TD

Stevan Ridley - See my previous post on him. Any NE RB is never a good argument

Alfred MOrris - I'll give you him because he was a workhorse, got the yards and TDs

Maurice Jones-Drew - Downhill

DeMarco Murray - What? As a Cowboys fan, I know he's not a good argument for fantasy FB. Heck, none have been since E. Smith. Look at his numbers

Reggie Bush - Hell no

Lamar Miller - What?

Darren McFadden - Injury prone

I'm guessing you aren't going to do very well this year.

[BaseballNick]

I had the #8 pick in a 12 team league, and I went against everything I believed in when I took WRs in rounds 2 (Dez Bryant) and 3 (Demaryius Thomas) because I didn't like the quality of RB left on the board when I was drafting. Now I'm a little short on stud RBs, but I feel like I have some elite talent at WR. Also, if you don't get one of the top 3-4 TEs, you're going to be stuck with garbage at that position.

 

Here's my team:

 

Andrew Luck - QB1

Doug Martin - RB1

David Wilson - RB2

Dez Bryant - WR1

Demaryius Thomas - WR2

James Jones - Flex

Brandon Pettigrew - TE

 

 

Bench

Daryl Richardson

Tayvon Austin

Lance Moore

Ben Tate

Bernard Pierce

Justin Blackmon

Alex Smith

[maggsmaggs]

5th pick in a 10-team league:

 

Starters

 

QB = Luck

RB = Martin

RB = Morris

WR = Bryant

WR = Cobb

Flex = D. Murray

TE = Cook

Def = Broncos

K = Zuerlein

 

Bench

 

QB = Romo

RB = Pierce

WR = Austin

WR = Nicks

WR = Blackmon

TE = Cameron

TE = Rudolph

 

Like my team except RB depth. One injury to either Martin/Morris and I could be screwed.

[witesoxfan]

I had the #8 pick in a 12 team league, and I went against everything I believed in when I took WRs in rounds 2 (Dez Bryant) and 3 (Demaryius Thomas) because I didn't like the quality of RB left on the board when I was drafting. Now I'm a little short on stud RBs, but I feel like I have some elite talent at WR. Also, if you don't get one of the top 3-4 TEs, you're going to be stuck with garbage at that position.

 

Here's my team:

 

Andrew Luck - QB1

Doug Martin - RB1

David Wilson - RB2

Dez Bryant - WR1

Demaryius Thomas - WR2

James Jones - Flex

Brandon Pettigrew - TE

 

 

Bench

Daryl Richardson

Tayvon Austin

Lance Moore

Ben Tate

Bernard Pierce

Justin Blackmon

Alex Smith

 

I'd want a little more assurance at QB, but I love this kind of team. If Rice/Foster gets hurt, you have monstrous value. I also love David Wilson this year, plus it's match up friendly with your flex too.

[ZoomSlowik]

Nite, your argument hit a major snag when you mentioned Matt Ryan. His ADP in ESPN leagues is 36.5 and it's all the way down at 47.6 on Yahoo. There's absolutely no reason to take him in the first two rounds in a standard league since he's frequently available beyond the third 3rd.

 

That is exactly the reason that people are saying it's dumb to take a QB early, you can find serviceable to good quarterbacks (guys like Newton, Ryan, RGIII, Wilson, Stafford, possibly even Brady or Manning if you're on Yahoo or have a seriously anti-QB draft) in the 3rd-6th.

 

Your RB's on the other hand are a much bigger question mark at that point. You have two high upside but questionable options in Lamar Miller and David Wilson, but after that it's a mix of failed vets, rookies/unproven guys, and people that aren't slated to get feature back carries at this point. Then consider that 1) you need to start two of them 2) as you said, they tend to get hurt at a fairly high rate, so you should really have three decent options. You're less screwed in the event of injury if you have Lynch, Gore and Miller than if you have something like Gore, Miller and Bradshaw (and that assumes that you didn't take a WR in the first few rounds as well).

Edited August 28, 2013 by ZoomSlowik

[DrunkBomber]

Injuries do not always force you to sit. You guys should know that. But in a league like the NFL, even playing dinged up can produce terrible results. Look at the gamelogs if you don't believe me. Plus, we're arguing how taking those guys early over QBs is a very bad move as QBs are much more consistent than RBs, year to year in fantasy.

The difference is the dropoff at each position. A few seasons ago, when QB had less depth, getting guys like Rodgers, Brady, Brees was a bigger deal because the dropoff from those guys was more significant. This year however, there are more QBs that you can be comfortable with using.

 

Stafford- Can throw for 5000 yards and is throwing to Megatron

Ryan- Has been consistently good for a few seasons.

Romo- Can throw for 4500 yards and 30 tds. Also has Dez and Witten to throw to.

Newton- Can throw for anywhere between 3500-4000 yards and 20+tds. Also can rush for 700 yards and add over 10 rushing TDs

 

Throw in the younger guys like Luck, RG3, Wilson and Kaepernick with Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Brees etc and you can find a capable atarter for 10-12 fantasy teams.

 

Rbs this season seem more thin. Every team has to start at least 2 RBs, most leagues have flex spots and can use 3 or 4 rb's.

 

There arent 20 RBs you should feel good about starting every week. Here is how RBs breakdown to me

 

PROVEN starting everydown back type guys:

AP

Foster

McCoy

Rice

Martin

Charles

Lynch

Richardson

Morris

Spiller

 

Those are the guys Id feel ok about being the first back I took in a draft.

 

Forte

Ridley

Gore

SJax

CJ

 

These guys round out the proven backs who youd feel good about starting as a RB2.

 

Wilson

Miller

Ivory

Bush

Lacy

Bernard

Richardson, D

Bradshaw

 

These are unknowns who have some good upside

 

Murray

MJD

DMC

Mathews

 

These guys have the talent but are all pretty risky to count on.

 

Mendenhall and Sproles are about all thats left worth noting.

 

 

Thats about 15 backs you feel good about every week in leagues where teams are starting 3-4 backs the dropoff can be huge.

 

[chw42]

Just a mini question, why are people going RB first? The only RB worthwhile is Adrian Peterson when he's healthy. In normal scoring leagues, especially ESPN ones, the QB is always the better pick since RBs these days work as tandems for the most part and they are so inconsistent year to year. AP has been the only one who if healthy, is a top 5 RB every year. The rest fluctuate wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much.

 

Also as draft strategies, I also suggest picking QBs who are in tough divisions as they won't be resting come playoff time for you. Matt Ryan, Drew Brees > Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning.

 

I think it has more to do with how deep QB is ATM.

 

If you're in a 10 or 12 team league with only 1 starting QB, you can wait until the 6th or 7th round and you'll still get a pretty good QB (Luck, Romo both fall that far usually).

 

If you look at it, the dropoff in QB production between #1 and #12 is only around 20%. And even if you go above the 20% threshold, you can still get production out of QBs like Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger.

 

Go to RBs and it's a completely different situation. After about the 15th RB in the draft, those RBs are iffy. Go beyond top 20 and you don't know what the hell you'll get. At least with QBs, they have stable jobs.

 

It's purely based on the volatility and strength of the positions.

 

Wide receiver is another position that isn't as valuable as RB since there are so many more good wideouts than RBs in the league.

 

 

I made this chart a week ago for my draft. Each tier represents a 10% dropoff from the #1 performer at the position. These are based on a set of projections I chose from FantasyPros.com and the scoring is skewed towards my PPR league, so you can keep that in mind.

 

Note that for RBs and WR all have about the same amount of tier 1 performers, but after tier 3, the amount of productive WRs far outnumbers that of RBs.

 

Also note that the amount of QBs from the 10 to 20% range is 8. After the top 4 QBs, you're not losing out on much.

Edited August 28, 2013 by chw42

[witesoxfan]

The difference is the dropoff at each (words....)

 

Amen

[IlliniKrush]

Well, I might as well paste my roster from the big live draft I had over the weekend. Note - drinking beers and inputting rosters after a live draft is fun and not at the same time.

 

I picked 10th in a 12 teamer. All TDs worth 6. 1 bonus point every 100 yards for rushing/receiving and every 100 yards past 300 for passing.

 

QB Matthew Stafford

WR Dwayne Bowe

WR Pierre Garcon

WR Michael Floyd

RB LeSean McCoy

RB Maurice Jones-Drew

TE Zach Sudfeld

FLEX Ryan Mathews

DEF who cares, but Tampa

 

 

QB Josh Freeman

WR Justin Blackmon

WR Vincent Brown

RB Bryce Brown

RB Jonathan Dwyer

TE Antonio Gates

TE Coby Fleener

Just like you don't understand the desire to play in a 10 team league, I don't understand the desire to play in a 6 pt passing TD league...

 

Just a mini question, why are people going RB first? The only RB worthwhile is Adrian Peterson when he's healthy. In normal scoring leagues, especially ESPN ones, the QB is always the better pick since RBs these days work as tandems for the most part and they are so inconsistent year to year. AP has been the only one who if healthy, is a top 5 RB every year. The rest fluctuate wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much.

 

Also as draft strategies, I also suggest picking QBs who are in tough divisions as they won't be resting come playoff time for you. Matt Ryan, Drew Brees > Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning.

Read this

 

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/...football-drafts

 

So the NFC North isn't tough? Interesting.

 

Also, it's basic math. You have to start two running backs and only one quarterback in most leagues. I disagree wholeheartedly on the tandems - the NFL is getting away from that again, thank God. I'd say there's 14 or so backs who are workhorses.

 

Are you trying to tell me any of the below aren't clear-cut #1 running backs?

 

Adrian Peterson

Doug Martin

LeSean McCoy

Marshawn Lynch

Jamaal Charles

Ray Rice

CJ Spiller

Arian Foster

Trent Richardson

Matt Forte

Stevan Ridley

Alfred MOrris

Maurice Jones-Drew

DeMarco Murray

Reggie Bush

Lamar Miller

Darren McFadden

 

Sure, they might lose some touches to backups, but these guys are all going to get the bulk of the carries. And you need to start two of them (and I'm starting three RBs with a FLEX). Good luck not having garbage out there if you pass on one to snag Matt Ryan.

 

EDIT: And you're god-damned crazy if you think I want one of the bottom four listed above as a top two RB for me, so of course I'm taking them rounds 1 and two

 

Meanwhile, QB is stacked. 2 points per game makes up the difference between a Drew Brees (last year) and a guy you can get in the 6th round. And you only need one of them.

 

It's basic, simple math.

 

I took RBs with my first 3 picks and still had Matt Stafford whom I reached on in my big draft. I'd much rather gamble on his upside than take Drew Brees at 10 and be completely f***ed.

Wait, what? Did you take Ryan Mathews with your 3rd pick? Tell me you meant to hit "2" instead of "3"...?

 

I'm getting signed up for an auction league, don't really want to do it but whatever, should be interesting if anything else. No idea how to strategize for it.

Stars and scrubs

[knightni]

Doug Martin - 2nd year RB - I'm weery

Leery or wary?

 

Also, who is Fred Thomas?