8/23 Games

[flavum]

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?c...mp;ymd=20130823

 

Hawkins is batting .184. Bust until he's not.

[QuickJones81]

So when do you start to worry about a hidden injury for Snodgress? I think this is 3 straight starts that he's been hit around the yard.

[fathom]

Nestor Molina needs to face Courtney Hawkins

[NorthSideSox72]

Hawkins is batting .184. Bust until he's not.

That's like saying guilty until proven innocent. It is ass-backwards as a way to look at a high draft pick prospect.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Anyone happen to listen to the Kanny broadcast and catch me blabbering with their radio guy in the 3rd inning?

 

[fathom]

That's like saying guilty until proven innocent. It is ass-backwards as a way to look at a high draft pick prospect.

Sickels had a recap of the first round picks of 2012 and Hawkins at this point might be the worst pick of the draft.

 

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Sickels had a recap of the first round picks of 2012 and Hawkins at this point might be the worst pick of the draft.

Sure looks that way right now. That is not the same as saying he's a bust, or that he is a bust first and maybe a prospect later. That's just silly.

 

He may be a bust - lots of draft picks are, even 1st rounders. Still way, way early to say that on Hawkins though.

 

[oldsox]

Sure looks that way right now. That is not the same as saying he's a bust, or that he is a bust first and maybe a prospect later. That's just silly.

 

He may be a bust - lots of draft picks are, even 1st rounders. Still way, way early to say that on Hawkins though.

When, then? Mid season next year?

[NorthSideSox72]

When, then? Mid season next year?

I think next year is obviously huge for him. He doesn't need to crush everything next year, but if he can substantially improve the contact rate (which he has for a few multi-week periods this year) over the long haul, I think he's still a very intriguing prospect. If next year he is basically the same as this year, he starts sliding down the scale. If after a full next year he still isn't improving noticeably, then it is time to start saying he's gone to fringe status.

 

That's my view, this is all very subjective of course. Just bear in mind we are talking about a guy who is still very young for his level, in fact was one of the youngest in his league and was rushed up to that point. Whether or not you agree with that decision, the reality is that he was in a very challenging spot. Let's see if he can adjust, he does still have plenty of time.

 

[BamaDoc]

Andy Wilkins at third base?

[NorthSideSox72]

Can someone comment on the ballpark at Great Falls? Hitters park I assume?

Not sure about the park itself, but you can look up MiLB park factors online. But the Pioneer League generally is pretty hitter-friendly.

 

[Jake]

Andy Wilkins at third base?

 

He played there earlier in his career and it was generally reviewed as really, really bad. They were saying that he's just recently gotten to the point where he's an average defender at 1B

[Vance Law]

Sickels had a recap of the first round picks of 2012 and Hawkins at this point might be the worst pick of the draft.

 

I don't know how he can say that while, at the same time, Hawkins is one of only like 3 guys his age in high A.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

When, then? Mid season next year?

 

I think if he hasn't figured out High-A by his 3rd season in that level, then we can all officially forget that he exists. But being like what, 19 years old, I am still not done looking up his numbers periodically.

[danman31]

Hawkins is batting .184. Bust until he's not.

Sorry Matt, but I agree with this. Hawkins is so bad that the words I really want to use to describe his performance would probably piss people off. I'm most concerned about the fact that his numbers have seriously regressed in August. His worst batting average and with much less power.

 

I'm not giving up hope, but after watching video of him it's clear he has no f***ing clue what he's doing up there. Hopefully he reads s*** like this (since he's getting bashed everywhere) and dedicates himself. He's clearly young enough to turn it around, but he has so far to go it's just not likely.

[oldsox]

When, then? Mid season next year?

Same question for Thompson and Walker, North Sider. How long?

[thxfrthmmrs]

I don't know how he can say that while, at the same time, Hawkins is one of only like 3 guys his age in high A.

 

It's so easy to jump on Hawkins these days I have been refraining myself from doing so for the past two months.

 

But I wish people would stop using age as an excuse. The biggest reason Hawkins is struggling this bad is his inability to read and hit the breaking bad. Pair that up with a long and lousy swing, and poor hip rotation, he has no chance to make any contact with the ball. He had an impressive debut last year, but I believe pitchers didn't figure him out at that point. Almost every pitcher Hawkins faced this year in High A have been exploiting his weakness for breaking ball. Check out Nathaniel Stoltz's video scouting on Fangraph.

 

Using the logic that people keep throwing around, that there isn't that much of TALENT difference between High and Low A, would you think Hawkins would have fare much better in Low A? Heck, if words got out last year that he can't hit the breaking pitch at all, I don't think he would have gotten out of rookie ball.

 

We get that he's still 19 years old. But in the history of the minor leagues, there's probably only 1 player who had the strikeout rate that Hawkins has, and a comparable batting average, who turned out to be a successful major leaguer. Even that player hit .210 that year, and that's like .030 higher than Hawkins this year.

[NorthSideSox72]

Sorry Matt, but I agree with this. Hawkins is so bad that the words I really want to use to describe his performance would probably piss people off. I'm most concerned about the fact that his numbers have seriously regressed in August. His worst batting average and with much less power.

 

I'm not giving up hope, but after watching video of him it's clear he has no f***ing clue what he's doing up there. Hopefully he reads s*** like this (since he's getting bashed everywhere) and dedicates himself. He's clearly young enough to turn it around, but he has so far to go it's just not likely.

 

You can agree with it, I don't. As I said it is all subjective. The only part of the post that really bothered me was the phrase "bust till he's not", which is just nonsensical IMO. He's been a disappointment for sure, age/level or not. And he's surely not the top prospect in the org anymore.

 

Same question for Thompson and Walker, North Sider. How long?

 

Much more development under their belts, so a different situation, IMO. Last year I really thought Trayce was putting it together, but he's really struggled this year for the most part (haven't checked lately, but up until a few weeks ago, his K rate was noticeably down, which is good). Walker already was missing the power tool, so he's really sliding now, from my view. I won't call either busts quite yet (but Mitchell I'll call that). But both are sliding. I think Thompson and Walker both get a chance to show something next year before, for me, they become non-prospects.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I should note, I'm going to be in the W-S clubhouse later today, and Hawkins is among the guys I am going to try to speak with. So we'll see how that goes. I'm trying to find a way to ask the right questions, to get good answers, but not say something that might make him clam up or get offended.

 

[ptatc]

It's so easy to jump on Hawkins these days I have been refraining myself from doing so for the past two months.

 

But I wish people would stop using age as an excuse. The biggest reason Hawkins is struggling this bad is his inability to read and hit the breaking bad. Pair that up with a long and lousy swing, and poor hip rotation, he has no chance to make any contact with the ball. He had an impressive debut last year, but I believe pitchers didn't figure him out at that point. Almost every pitcher Hawkins faced this year in High A have been exploiting his weakness for breaking ball. Check out Nathaniel Stoltz's video scouting on Fangraph.

 

Using the logic that people keep throwing around, that there isn't that much of TALENT difference between High and Low A, would you think Hawkins would have fare much better in Low A? Heck, if words got out last year that he can't hit the breaking pitch at all, I don't think he would have gotten out of rookie ball.

 

We get that he's still 19 years old. But in the history of the minor leagues, there's probably only 1 player who had the strikeout rate that Hawkins has, and a comparable batting average, who turned out to be a successful major leaguer. Even that player hit .210 that year, and that's like .030 higher than Hawkins this year.

It's not as much age as it is the experience it implies. Give players out of high school 3 years to look at progress. The sox have a different approach then many other organizations, this may be why they don't produce hitters. Bell has stated that they are allowing Hawkins to do it his way and make his mistakes. If it works fine, if not then they will begin correcting his flaws. August stats seem to say that Hawkins worked on the his power but saw it didn't help his average. No he sacrificing some power and working on others things to help contact.

[Dick Allen]

Sure looks that way right now. That is not the same as saying he's a bust, or that he is a bust first and maybe a prospect later. That's just silly.

 

He may be a bust - lots of draft picks are, even 1st rounders. Still way, way early to say that on Hawkins though.

Obviously bust is a very strong term for a 19 year old, but how many guys, no matter what level they are playing as 19 year olds do what Hawkins is doing and wind up successful? I understand he is 19 and a year out of high school, but he is not facing major league pitching or even AA pitching and the situation isn't improving as the season progresses.

 

Maybe a clean slate next year and a few adjustments are all he needs, but i would say the odds are stacked against him. I'm pretty sure if the baseball world knew he would be hitting .182 with a strikeout rate which would make Adam Dunn blush in high A this year, he wouldn't have been drafted in the first several rounds.

Edited August 24, 2013 by Dick Allen

[flavum]

Obviously bust is a very strong term for a 19 year old, but how many guys, no matter what level they are playing as 19 year olds do what Hawkins is doing and wind up successful? I understand he is 19 and a year out of high school, but he is not facing major league pitching or even AA pitching and the situation isn't improving as the season progresses.

 

Maybe a clean slate next year and a few adjustments are all he needs, but i would say the odds are stacked against him. I'm pretty sure if the baseball world knew he would be hitting .182 with a strikeout rate which would make Adam Dunn blush in high A this year, he wouldn't have been drafted in the first several rounds.

 

That was always my point too. Eh, let's see how he does in year 2 at Winston-Salem, and if he sucks again, it's over for that draft pick, and move on to the next one. Hopefully the 3rd or 4th pick next year will make up for it.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I should note, I'm going to be in the W-S clubhouse later today, and Hawkins is among the guys I am going to try to speak with. So we'll see how that goes. I'm trying to find a way to ask the right questions, to get good answers, but not say something that might make him clam up or get offended.

 

Ask him if him if the coaches have identified what exactly could be the reason he is having such a down year, and what the steps are in place to fix that.

 

Maybe he will straight up say, "I can't hit the breaking ball, so they are going to send me to xxxx to work with xxxx to help me improve on that" or something. Hopefully that makes him be specific.

 

 

 

Also, ask him what his perfect Sunday/sundae is.

[thxfrthmmrs]

It's not as much age as it is the experience it implies. Give players out of high school 3 years to look at progress. The sox have a different approach then many other organizations, this may be why they don't produce hitters. Bell has stated that they are allowing Hawkins to do it his way and make his mistakes. If it works fine, if not then they will begin correcting his flaws. August stats seem to say that Hawkins worked on the his power but saw it didn't help his average. No he sacrificing some power and working on others things to help contact.

 

 

Most of the first round picks, even high schoolers, start in Low A the next season if they played half a season at rookie ball after drafted. Hawkins is only 1 level ahead of his curve, and yet as many had point out, the difference between talent and experience is marginal between the two levels. 19 year old first round picks don't normally struggle like this, even if he is a bit inexperience for this level. Even if he was in rookie ball or Low A, once the pitchers start to exploit his weakness, he probably won't fare much better than he's doing now.

 

I heard Bell's interview on the radio a few months back, and I strongly disagree with the approach. Given the Sox have nothing to show for in offensive development for the last 10 years, they shouldn't be continue to experiment this approach on a highly touted prospect, one that they, or anyone, have yet to have success with.

[ptatc]

Most of the first round picks, even high schoolers, start in Low A the next season if they played half a season at rookie ball after drafted. Hawkins is only 1 level ahead of his curve, and yet as many had point out, the difference between talent and experience is marginal between the two levels. 19 year old first round picks don't normally struggle like this, even if he is a bit inexperience for this level. Even if he was in rookie ball or Low A, once the pitchers start to exploit his weakness, he probably won't fare much better than he's doing now.

 

I heard Bell's interview on the radio a few months back, and I strongly disagree with the approach. Given the Sox have nothing to show for in offensive development for the last 10 years, they shouldn't be continue to experiment this approach on a highly touted prospect, one that they, or anyone, have yet to have success with.

True however this is why you give him another year. Just because he hasn't progressed like most others doesn't mean he is a bust yet.

 

I never said I agreed with him, I just that is what they are doing so don't write him off yet. If they change things he has time to work them out.