Why Pitchers are a safer choice in the Draft

[Lillian]

I didn't know if this had already been discussed, but I wanted to put forth an hypothesis:

 

Pitchers should be easier to evaluate than hitters, as prospects.

A pitcher's velocity, command, movement and other traits should be easier to project in terms of success vs. major league hitters, than a hitter's ability to hit Major League pitching, which he has never faced. He may look really good against amateur pitching, but how can you begin to know how he will be able to adjust to Big League pitching?

 

Look at it this way. If a pitcher can throw the ball in the high 90's with movement, and command, and if he has effective off speed pitches to go with it, you can assume that he will be hard to hit. However, if a hitter can crush balls, with his strength and bat speed, that doesn't necessarily mean that he will be able to consistently make contact against the caliber of pitching he will face when he gets to the Majors.

 

If this is true, given the choice, why not pick the pitcher in the Draft? In this year's Draft, the Sox will likely have a chance to pick another SS, or a RHP. If they are ranked approximately the same, I would opt for the pitcher.

Moreover, the Sox need another RHP, and already used their top pick last year for a speedy SS.

 

I'm interested to hear your perspectives on this general hypothesis, as well as your thoughts on this year's Draft.

[NorthSideSox72]

I've not seen it put exactly that way, but... yes, I'd assume scouting is a little more precise with pitchers. And yes, "leaning" towards pitching, all-else equal, seems to make sense.

 

However, all other things are NEVER equal. Furthermore and more importantly, if you draft no serious position player talent, you are forcing yourself to get free agents for all your lineup positions, no matter what. And that is not a good position to put your club in.

 

Then there are other factors too. Relative cost of each in free agency varies year to year, so you want some balance of talent in your system. Some years there is more demand for hitters in trade as well, so again, you want balance.

 

[witesoxfan]

Studies have been done on this and while I can't find the article now, this is actually backwards. Pitchers have a tendency to get injured more often (comparatively speaking), to see their arms break down and lose velocity and break on pitches, and to have more randomized developments (unexpected loss in velocity, failure to develop secondary pitches, failure to throw effective breaking balls with lowered seams, among others). I don't recall the exact numbers, but among 1st round draft picks, it was something like 60-66% of college hitters play in the majors, 50% of college pitchers do, 50% of high school hitters, and 33% of high school pitchers.

[Jake]

While I would not deny that pitchers are easier to evaluate, particularly due to the fact that most of their skills are measurable.

 

Unfortunately, it is far more likely that a pitcher deals with injury. Pitcher injuries are far more frequently career-altering than the vast majority of injuries suffered by position players. There is research showing that from the first time a pitcher goes to the DL for any reason, they basically become a ticking time bomb.

 

This is why drafting is hard. It is difficult to objectively say how good and advanced a hitter is, but you can usually feel reasonably assured about what their physical skills/abilities will be. I know that Tim Anderson is going to be fast. I know that Alexei Ramirez is going to have a great arm.

 

With pitchers, you know that at a moment's notice the one physical skill they have that matters may permanently degrade.

[Dick Allen]

Studies have been done on this and while I can't find the article now, this is actually backwards. Pitchers have a tendency to get injured more often (comparatively speaking), to see their arms break down and lose velocity and break on pitches, and to have more randomized developments (unexpected loss in velocity, failure to develop secondary pitches, failure to throw effective breaking balls with lowered seams, among others). I don't recall the exact numbers, but among 1st round draft picks, it was something like 60-66% of college hitters play in the majors, 50% of college pitchers do, 50% of high school hitters, and 33% of high school pitchers.

I read some article that said pitchers who throw 98 in high school and get drafted seem to throw 88 four years later.

 

I do think college pitchers are easier to evaluate than hitters though. One thing that makes hitters harder to evaluate is aluminum bats. Wood vs. aluminum is a different game. You don't have to square it up on an aluminum bat, plus you can get a barrel a lot bigger at a light weight.

Edited September 16, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Lillian]

I knew that you gentlemen would have some good insight on this topic.

 

Thanks for the comments. I understand the issue better, after having read just these first few posts.

[witesoxfan]

I read some article that said pitchers who throw 98 in high school and get drafted seem to throw 88 four years later.

 

I do think college pitchers are easier to evaluate than hitters though. One thing that makes hitters harder to evaluate is aluminum bats. Wood vs. aluminum is a different game. You don't have to square it up on an aluminum bat, plus you can get a barrel a lot bigger at a light weight.

 

I think since they have de-juiced the bats a little bit, it's a bit easier to evaluate, but it's impossible to disagree with this either way. If guys are throwing 98 at 21 and 22, they are likely going to keep it since their body has filled out a bit.

 

I still think college hitters are safer bets to make the majors simply because you have evaluated them at a higher level and because pitchers still get hurt more often. The problem is that, because they stick out compared to everyone else, the great ones get drafted high. The Sox will still have the opportunity to get one of those guys this year though.

Edited September 16, 2013 by witesoxfan

[chisoxfan09]

Does anyone on the board agree with Tyler Kolek as a safe pick at number 3 which is we will probably land at? Big bulk frame at 6'5 240lbs. He has a great FB (95-98) with a good curve. I know he has been talked about before but does he have the upside you would look for in defending taking a pitcher in the draft VS. a polished hitter? I think he would be ready for the bigs in 2015??

[Lillian]

Does anyone on the board agree with Tyler Kolek as a safe pick at number 3 which is we will probably land at? Big bulk frame at 6'5 240lbs. He has a great FB (95-98) with a good curve. I know he has been talked about before but does he have the upside you would look for in defending taking a pitcher in the draft VS. a polished hitter? I think he would be ready for the bigs in 2015??

 

That is who I'm hoping for, instead of Trea Turner.

[witesoxfan]

Will you guys be hoping for Kolek if he goes down early in the year with a shoulder injury?

 

I know we fantasize about picks, but speculating on potential draft picks in September is about as silly as speculating on a major league roster for 2015.

[southsider2k5]

Will you guys be hoping for Kolek if he goes down early in the year with a shoulder injury?

 

I know we fantasize about picks, but speculating on potential draft picks in September is about as silly as speculating on a major league roster for 2015.

 

Welcome to rebuilding.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Will you guys be hoping for Kolek if he goes down early in the year with a shoulder injury?

 

I know we fantasize about picks, but speculating on potential draft picks in September is about as silly as speculating on a major league roster for 2015.

 

 

Kolek is a HS pitcher. If they go pitcher that high I think it'd be a college arm. They could go HS bat though. I really like Alex Jackson.

[witesoxfan]

Kolek is a HS pitcher. If they go pitcher that high I think it'd be a college arm. They could go HS bat though. I really like Alex Jackson.

 

Honestly, I haven't the slightest clue who they'll take. My only thought is that it will be the best player available on their board, regardless of position. It could be a tall, lanky left handed pitcher with a big fastball and slider, and they'd take him. It's not like facing Chris Sale twice as often is going to make him any easier to hit.

[Lillian]

Kolek is a HS pitcher. If they go pitcher that high I think it'd be a college arm. They could go HS bat though. I really like Alex Jackson.

 

Jackson would be a great pick. Does anyone know what the chances are that he signs?

Hasn't he signed a letter of intent to go to Oregon?

[Y2Jimmy0]

Jackson would be a great pick. Does anyone know what the chances are that he signs?

Hasn't he signed a letter of intent to go to Oregon?

 

 

Most of the "prospect people" in the media talk about him as if he will be a top 5 pick. If his commitment was that solid I think it would get brought up more. I would imagine that he and Gatewood will both sign.

[southsider2k5]

Jackson would be a great pick. Does anyone know what the chances are that he signs?

Hasn't he signed a letter of intent to go to Oregon?

 

For anyone with the new draft rules, the odds are better of signing the higher they get drafted, because the teams have more dollars to deal with.