Chris Sale and wasted effort

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/..._puts_him_in_a/

 

Someone put a chart together listing Chris Sale and the 11 other pitchers in history to put up 7+ WAR seasons but end up with a sub-.500 record.

Edited September 18, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Rowand44]

No #twtw from Chris, that simple.

[Jose Abreu]

Phil Niekro got on with an ERA over 4... but good list of elite pitchers he's joining

[chw42]

http://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/..._puts_him_in_a/

 

Someone put a chart together listing Chris Sale and the 11 other pitchers in history to put up 7+ WAR seasons but end up with a sub-.500 record.

 

7 bWAR. His fWAR isn't as spectacular.

[chw42]

Phil Niekro got on with an ERA over 4... but good list of elite pitchers he's joining

 

His defense must have been complete s***.

[LittleHurt05]

Expected to see Felix's name on that list

[Eminor3rd]

7 bWAR. His fWAR isn't as spectacular.

 

Good catch. I didn't notice that.

[witesoxfan]

I hadn't done enough research into fWAR or FIP and, while I think it's a better true indication of pitcher's talent, I think xFIP is a better calibration of a pitcher's overall talent and luck becomes less of a factor. You look at the raw fWAR numbers and you see that Scherzer is at 6.1 and Sale is at 4.7. Does anybody on here really believe that Max Scherzer has been 30% better than Chris Sale has this year? I sure as hell don't. So, I looked it up.

 

First, here's the formula for FIP:

 

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

 

(the constant is generally about 3.2 to normalize to make it look like ERA, as is done with wOBA)

 

Immediately, that tells me it skews away from pitchers who give up home runs, but who do you think is going to give up more home runs, Chris Sale with 330-375-400-375-330 around his home park, or Max Scherzer at 345-370-420-365-335? To further prove this, consider that USCF's multi-year park factor is 108 while Comerica's is 105. Beyond that, USCF's home run factor is 1.15 compared to Comerica's at 0.98 this year; last year it was 1.35 and 1.03 respectively.

 

Digging deeper, I wanted to see which of Chris Sale's home runs would have been home runs elsewhere. Immediately I ran into an outlier that is likely included in his numbers - Ian Kinsler's 197 foot inside the park home run. 99.99% of the time that is not a home run, but due to fluke factors, it was, and it skews his FIP upward already. There were 5 others I thought could be here or there (listed as either 'Just Enough' or short home runs that I thought could have stayed in on other days, courtsey ESPN Hit Tracker)

 

Josh Donaldson - 6/7

Matt Tuiasosopo - 7/11

Ryan Raburn - 8/1

Miguel Cabrera - 8/12

Asdrubal Cabrera - 9/15

 

For mere example's sake, we'll remove those too. Keeping all other numbers constant while using 17 as the home runs allowed, Sale's FIP would drop from 3.26 to 3.02. To some extent, that normalizes his FIP and would put him at 11th in the majors and 4th in the AL. Instead, he's tied with Jhoulys Chacin (xFIP 3.85) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (xFIP 3.49); Chris Sale's xFIP is 2.96 - because he's a much better pitcher than both Chacin and Ryu and is more in line with guys like Cliff Lee and Yu Darvish.

 

So really, nuts and bolts of the matter, Chris Sale's fWAR is being penalized because he pitches in a home run park while Max Scherzer is getting a bonus for pitching in a park that tends to suppress home runs. Their xFIPs? Chris Sale would rank 3rd in the AL at 2.96 (behind Felix at 2.69 and Darvish at 2.76), while Scherzer would be 5th at 3.08 (behind teammate Anibal Sanchez at 2.97, who actually leads the AL in both ERA (2.51) and FIP (2.48) but has only thrown 172 innings).

 

At the end of the day, context matters in everything, and using these numbers as any sort of measuring stick really defeats the purpose because they are just supposed to give an indication as to how good these guys have been, not be the end all, be all. I still believe fWAR is the best number number to use, and xFIP has it's flaws too, but nothing is without holes. Bottomline, when comparing pitchers to one another, consider everything, take time to think about it, and then come to a conclusion.

[witesoxfan]

Oh, and use whatever numbers you want to...Matt Harvey was the best pitcher in the major leagues this year by far. It's a damn shame we won't get to see him next year.

Edited September 19, 2013 by witesoxfan

[southsider2k5]

Nice work

[Eminor3rd]

Nice work

 

[chw42]

I hadn't done enough research into fWAR or FIP and, while I think it's a better true indication of pitcher's talent, I think xFIP is a better calibration of a pitcher's overall talent and luck becomes less of a factor. You look at the raw fWAR numbers and you see that Scherzer is at 6.1 and Sale is at 4.7. Does anybody on here really believe that Max Scherzer has been 30% better than Chris Sale has this year? I sure as hell don't. So, I looked it up.

 

First, here's the formula for FIP:

 

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

 

(the constant is generally about 3.2 to normalize to make it look like ERA, as is done with wOBA)

 

Immediately, that tells me it skews away from pitchers who give up home runs, but who do you think is going to give up more home runs, Chris Sale with 330-375-400-375-330 around his home park, or Max Scherzer at 345-370-420-365-335? To further prove this, consider that USCF's multi-year park factor is 108 while Comerica's is 105. Beyond that, USCF's home run factor is 1.15 compared to Comerica's at 0.98 this year; last year it was 1.35 and 1.03 respectively.

 

Digging deeper, I wanted to see which of Chris Sale's home runs would have been home runs elsewhere. Immediately I ran into an outlier that is likely included in his numbers - Ian Kinsler's 197 foot inside the park home run. 99.99% of the time that is not a home run, but due to fluke factors, it was, and it skews his FIP upward already. There were 5 others I thought could be here or there (listed as either 'Just Enough' or short home runs that I thought could have stayed in on other days, courtsey ESPN Hit Tracker)

 

Josh Donaldson - 6/7

Matt Tuiasosopo - 7/11

Ryan Raburn - 8/1

Miguel Cabrera - 8/12

Asdrubal Cabrera - 9/15

 

For mere example's sake, we'll remove those too. Keeping all other numbers constant while using 17 as the home runs allowed, Sale's FIP would drop from 3.26 to 3.02. To some extent, that normalizes his FIP and would put him at 11th in the majors and 4th in the AL. Instead, he's tied with Jhoulys Chacin (xFIP 3.85) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (xFIP 3.49); Chris Sale's xFIP is 2.96 - because he's a much better pitcher than both Chacin and Ryu and is more in line with guys like Cliff Lee and Yu Darvish.

 

So really, nuts and bolts of the matter, Chris Sale's fWAR is being penalized because he pitches in a home run park while Max Scherzer is getting a bonus for pitching in a park that tends to suppress home runs. Their xFIPs? Chris Sale would rank 3rd in the AL at 2.96 (behind Felix at 2.69 and Darvish at 2.76), while Scherzer would be 5th at 3.08 (behind teammate Anibal Sanchez at 2.97, who actually leads the AL in both ERA (2.51) and FIP (2.48) but has only thrown 172 innings).

 

At the end of the day, context matters in everything, and using these numbers as any sort of measuring stick really defeats the purpose because they are just supposed to give an indication as to how good these guys have been, not be the end all, be all. I still believe fWAR is the best number number to use, and xFIP has it's flaws too, but nothing is without holes. Bottomline, when comparing pitchers to one another, consider everything, take time to think about it, and then come to a conclusion.

 

fWAR does take park factor into account though. For some odd reason, Detroit is somehow considered an offensively friendly park (maybe that's cause they usually have a good offense). Is home run factor taken into account when calculating park factor at all? I think it already does, but I'm not sure.

 

Another reason why Sale's bWAR is so high is because our defense sucks balls. Usually, a 3.08 ERA doesn't get you a bWAR of 7.

Edited September 19, 2013 by chw42

[chw42]

Oh, and use whatever numbers you want to...Matt Harvey was the best pitcher in the major leagues this year by far. It's a damn shame we won't get to see him next year.

 

There's a good chance Kershaw can win both NL MVP and Cy Young because of Harvey's injury.

 

The field for NL MVP this year is really weak. McCutchen is clearly the best player, but his power numbers aren't gawdy and a lot of his value comes from defense and base running.

 

I really don't understand the love for Freddie Freeman though. Cardinals fans who argue that Matt Carpenter is a better candidate than McCutchen are also kind of crazy.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Kershaw gets MVP though. You can't really argue with a 1.94 ERA.

[Rowand44]

This conversation led me to look up some numbers...it appears that this Mike Trout fella is pretty good.

[Eminor3rd]

This conversation led me to look up some numbers...it appears that this Mike Trout fella is pretty good.

 

Yeah that kid is going to be so filthy rich if he stays healthy.

[Balta1701]

Yeah that kid is going to be so filthy rich if he stays healthy.

If you were him, would you be trying to lock up a 6 year, 9 figure deal this offseason or would you try to push your luck to stay healthy the whole way?

[Dick Allen]

If you were him, would you be trying to lock up a 6 year, 9 figure deal this offseason or would you try to push your luck to stay healthy the whole way?

I would take the money. If he stays healthy, he will be young enough to cash in again.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah that kid is going to be so filthy rich if he stays healthy.

 

First $500,000,000 player?

[witesoxfan]

I would take the money. If he stays healthy, he will be young enough to cash in again.

 

Definitely this. Something like 6 years, $112 million would be good for him.

 

I'd love to see him set a record though. 15 years, $360 million (roughly) deal with an opt out after 6 years. The remaining 9 would be worth $247.5, or $27.5 mill per year.

[Rowand44]

I would take the money. If he stays healthy, he will be young enough to cash in again.

Yup. He is still so damn young, it's freakin nuts.

[southsider2k5]

Definitely this. Something like 6 years, $112 million would be good for him.

 

I'd love to see him set a record though. 15 years, $360 million (roughly) deal with an opt out after 6 years. The remaining 9 would be worth $247.5, or $27.5 mill per year.

 

That doesn't even hit Arods one year record of $32.5 million. Any long term deal for Trout probably starts there if he were to hit free agency.

 

[Eminor3rd]

If you were him, would you be trying to lock up a 6 year, 9 figure deal this offseason or would you try to push your luck to stay healthy the whole way?

 

I'd take the money and hit free agency again. But I'm not already making ~$500k per year like he is.

[witesoxfan]

Relevant http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-quality...-cy-young-race/

 

The more I think about it, the more I really think Sale deserves to win the Cy Young this year.

[Rowand44]

Relevant http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-quality...-cy-young-race/

 

The more I think about it, the more I really think Sale deserves to win the Cy Young this year.

[Eminor3rd]

Relevant http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-quality...-cy-young-race/

 

The more I think about it, the more I really think Sale deserves to win the Cy Young this year.

 

I think there are a bunch of guys lumped at the top. Sale should be top 3, but I won't feel ripped off when he doesn't win it. I just hope he land sin the the top 5 somewhere so people will think to look at his numbers.