SI on Paulie and our lousy future

[southsider2k5]

Winning 85 games gets you nothing. I'd prefer any goal to that of being "competitive"

 

Don't saddle the fans that go to the park with one more year of Dunn striking out it's not aesthetically pleasing baseball to see a guy who is not part of your future plans swing-and-miss so often.

 

Why? We aren't going to get anything for him now, as his value isn't going to be any lower. He isn't blocking anyone, as there is no one in the system who needs the spot. Aesthetically pleasing might be one of the worst arguments for getting rid of a player I have ever heard. Sounds like the old blue seat whining.

[witesoxfan]

Winning 85 games gets you nothing. I'd prefer any goal to that of being "competitive"

 

Don't saddle the fans that go to the park with one more year of Dunn striking out it's not aesthetically pleasing baseball to see a guy who is not part of your future plans swing-and-miss so often.

 

The Indians and Royals went into the year with plans of being "competitive." They are not going to win the Central, but both still have very legitimate chances at winning a Wild Card. They are also both set up to be (what I like to call) "BETTER" next year. That might not happen and they may fall back, but they have teams capable of winning 90 games in 2014.

 

If the Sox go into next year with a goal of winning 85 games, you are looking at a team that's not going to win 85 games simply because of the nature of baseball is one of volatility and unpredictability. If they stay really healthy and their performance is up to par, they'd probably win 88 games, but if they suffer from injury and underperformers, they probably only win 75-78. That is the nature of the beast. Beyond that, at least an 85 win team is interesting for most of the year. As a fan, I prefer that than the POS the Sox ran out in June, July, and August.

 

---

 

Regarding Dunn, he also has a tendency to hit balls a lot ways. Chicks still dig the long ball. You aren't getting anything valuable for him and, in fact, you'd probably still have to pick up $5-7 million MINIMUM just to get a team to take him on to save you some money. It's not smart business.

[Eminor3rd]

The Indians and Royals went into the year with plans of being "competitive." They are not going to win the Central, but both still have very legitimate chances at winning a Wild Card. They are also both set up to be (what I like to call) "BETTER" next year. That might not happen and they may fall back, but they have teams capable of winning 90 games in 2014.

 

If the Sox go into next year with a goal of winning 85 games, you are looking at a team that's not going to win 85 games simply because of the nature of baseball is one of volatility and unpredictability. If they stay really healthy and their performance is up to par, they'd probably win 88 games, but if they suffer from injury and underperformers, they probably only win 75-78. That is the nature of the beast. Beyond that, at least an 85 win team is interesting for most of the year. As a fan, I prefer that than the POS the Sox ran out in June, July, and August.

 

---

 

Regarding Dunn, he also has a tendency to hit balls a lot ways. Chicks still dig the long ball. You aren't getting anything valuable for him and, in fact, you'd probably still have to pick up $5-7 million MINIMUM just to get a team to take him on to save you some money. It's not smart business.

 

This ^

 

You have to get within the error bars. 10 or so games will be decided purely by luck. If your true talent is 85 wins, you're in the race.

 

And getting rid of Dunn makes no sense, Marty. If you could get something of value, you'd trade him, but you can't, so you have to use him. There's no argument for eating money to get rid of him other than tanking for more losses, which does not sit well the with fanbase, the league office, or the player's union. You can hate him, but there's no one better to replace him.

[Soxfest]

PK future is lousy that part is correct.

[witesoxfan]

This ^

 

You have to get within the error bars. 10 or so games will be decided purely by luck. If your true talent is 85 wins, you're in the race.

 

And getting rid of Dunn makes no sense, Marty. If you could get something of value, you'd trade him, but you can't, so you have to use him. There's no argument for eating money to get rid of him other than tanking for more losses, which does not sit well the with fanbase, the league office, or the player's union. You can hate him, but there's no one better to replace him.

 

My favorite story I've ever read was one where they took a league full of 30 completely average teams in every way - neutralizing for anything and everything - and they ran 1000 seasons worth of simulations. At the end of nearly every single one of those seasons, you had a fair number teams with 88-92 wins and a fair number of teams with 70-74 wins. The conclusion was that the only determining factor in all of those teams was merely luck.

 

Not everything is that cut and dry in the majors today, but more of it is than people realize. I think, talent wise, this Sox team was probably about 79-81 wins coming into the year. Due to injury and trades, they are going to finish well below that 10 game threshold, but if they end up around 64 or 65 wins, it's going to end up right around that mark (Peavy is at 1.3 fWAR and Thornton at 0.3 fWAR in Boston, Rios is at 0.7 fWAR in Texas, and Gavin Floyd is typically a 2-4 fWAR pitcher who was out for the year and struggled previously due to injury). If the Sox make solid additions and are bold but smart with their offseason moves, I definitely think they can go into next year with a team that's got 85-87 win talent and then you hope you get the breaks from there.

[Marty34]

1. The Sox aren't winning anything with Dunn next year.

2. Keeping Dunn and letting Konerko go makes no sense marketing wise. Sox fans don't like Dunn.

[witesoxfan]

1. The Sox aren't winning anything with Dunn next year.

2. Keeping Dunn and letting Konerko go makes no sense marketing wise. Sox fans don't like Dunn.

 

1. Prove it. You cant.

2. Sox fans like winning more than anything else, and they've proven this time and time again. You are going to win more with Dunn than you are with Konerko at this point in their careers, point blank.

[southsider2k5]

My favorite story I've ever read was one where they took a league full of 30 completely average teams in every way - neutralizing for anything and everything - and they ran 1000 seasons worth of simulations. At the end of nearly every single one of those seasons, you had a fair number teams with 88-92 wins and a fair number of teams with 70-74 wins. The conclusion was that the only determining factor in all of those teams was merely luck.

 

Not everything is that cut and dry in the majors today, but more of it is than people realize. I think, talent wise, this Sox team was probably about 79-81 wins coming into the year. Due to injury and trades, they are going to finish well below that 10 game threshold, but if they end up around 64 or 65 wins, it's going to end up right around that mark (Peavy is at 1.3 fWAR and Thornton at 0.3 fWAR in Boston, Rios is at 0.7 fWAR in Texas, and Gavin Floyd is typically a 2-4 fWAR pitcher who was out for the year and struggled previously due to injury). If the Sox make solid additions and are bold but smart with their offseason moves, I definitely think they can go into next year with a team that's got 85-87 win talent and then you hope you get the breaks from there.

 

Luck had nothing to do with this year. Timely injuries, horrible defense, and even worse baserunning are the big problem.

 

[southsider2k5]

1. The Sox aren't winning anything with Dunn next year.

2. Keeping Dunn and letting Konerko go makes no sense marketing wise. Sox fans don't like Dunn.

 

Letting Dunn go also doesn't advance the franchise in any way, shape, or form.

[Marty34]

1. Prove it. You cant.

2. Sox fans like winning more than anything else, and they've proven this time and time again. You are going to win more with Dunn than you are with Konerko at this point in their careers, point blank.

 

1. I think anyone who thinks the Sox are going to win 85-90 games next year is being delusional.

2. The difference between the amount of games Dunn wins the team versus the number of games Konerko wins them is not going to matter.

Edited September 20, 2013 by Marty34

[Marty34]

Letting Dunn go also doesn't advance the franchise in any way, shape, or form.

 

It gives them a landing spot for Konerko.

[pettie4sox]

It gives them a landing spot for Konerko.

 

Why do we need Konerko again?

[Balta1701]

Why do we need Konerko again?

So that we can lose 90+ games next year and Marty can be happy.

[southsider2k5]

It gives them a landing spot for Konerko.

Dump Dunn to make a spot for Paul Konerko? Now I know you are just trolling.

[Rowand44]

1. I think anyone who thinks the Sox are going to win 85-90 games next year is being delusional.

Nobody is being delusional because nobody knows what the hell the team is going to look like.

[greg775]

I wish I knew if Sox have hit bottom yet. Miami probably has. Houston? Probably not. Cubs? I hope not.

 

SI might have been over the top on the farm system, since Sox had several positive surprises this year (Semian, the Johnson boys. Beck, Goldberg, etc). Who's to say that a couple more might rise from the ashes in 2014. I wish the author would have put more blame on KW, but after re-reading it, he didn't have to. It's obvious.

 

Konerko? I think he should retire. Dunn? That is one of Hahn's dilemmas -- what to do with him, but I hope he is gone, too. I would rather have Andy Wilkins at first base next year.

 

It's amazing how the two architects of the 05 title, Kenny and Ozzie, predictably couldn't sustain it and flopped. Kind of like Ditka/Ryan. I guess we should be very very happy the Bulls sustained with Jordan, winning multi titles. And the Blackhawks more than one, with the future also looking bright. I happen to love Ozzie in the KW/Oz duo. A lot of you despise him and like KW, who I despise. Funny how that works. Both have the ultimate prize, but both also could be considered huge failures by others because of their lack of sustainability.

 

I guess we should be just happy attendance is good enough to prevent anybody from hinting the Sox might move. The Sox may rise again. How long is anybody's guess.

[Marty34]

Dump Dunn to make a spot for Paul Konerko? Now I know you are just trolling.

 

get rid of them both as far as I'm concerned.

[Jordan4life_2007]

It's amazing how the two architects of the 05 title, Kenny and Ozzie, predictably couldn't sustain it and flopped. Kind of like Ditka/Ryan. I guess we should be very very happy the Bulls sustained with Jordan, winning multi titles. And the Blackhawks more than one, with the future also looking bright. I happen to love Ozzie in the KW/Oz duo. A lot of you despise him and like KW, who I despise. Funny how that works. Both have the ultimate prize, but both also could be considered huge failures by others because of their lack of sustainability.

 

I guess we should be just happy attendance is good enough to prevent anybody from hinting the Sox might move. The Sox may rise again. How long is anybody's guess.

 

You're kidding? I had no idea.

[pettie4sox]

LMAO Greg just had to shove that in our faces yet AGAIN!

 

You never cease to amaze us, bro.

 

Marty you are back peddling hardcore. You said what you said now explain yourself!

[LVSoxFan]

I love Paulie but the idea of dumping Dunn to make room for him is ludicrous. Paulie was ALREADY on borrowed time when he had the last two good seasons; now age and injury are becoming insurmountable.

 

I idea of dumping Dunn just to... dump Dunn is also a non-starter, unless you get something of value of him, which you won't.

 

Send Paulie off in style, realize that Dunn is here one more year, and build around that.

 

Amirite, people?

[Marty34]

I love Paulie but the idea of dumping Dunn to make room for him is ludicrous. Paulie was ALREADY on borrowed time when he had the last two good seasons; now age and injury are becoming insurmountable.

 

I idea of dumping Dunn just to... dump Dunn is also a non-starter, unless you get something of value of him, which you won't.

 

Send Paulie off in style, realize that Dunn is here one more year, and build around that.

 

Amirite, people?

 

Why would you want to keep a player who nobody would offer anything of value for?

[witesoxfan]

Why would you want to keep a player who nobody would offer anything of value for?

 

Who said want? This is predicated upon smart business practice. Frankly, if the Sox could get someone to eat his whole salary, I'd do it for nothing and I think the Sox would too. But, if you have to pay them to take him off your hands, and you don't have a suitable replacement, why would you not just keep him?

 

There is also the possibility that you can actually "buy" a prospect that you believe in so much by eating the rest of his salary for August and September and getting a C prospect out of the whole deal. Maybe you can get a big arm with massive control problems and you can attempt to turn him around.

 

If Adam Dunn were an onion, you'd see the skin, declare it unedible, and throw it away.

[southsider2k5]

Why would you want to keep a player who nobody would offer anything of value for?

 

You are paying him regardless.

There is no one even remotely blocked by Adam Dunn.

There is always the chance that he has value to someone later.

And as you are fond of saying, it makes no difference for next year.

[Quin]

If you Abreu and McCann, Dunn gets better pitches. So do Avi and Dayan.

 

Those 5 combined provide massive power.

 

Enough that you can probably live with Gordon, Alexei, Semien, and ADA.

[witesoxfan]

If you Abreu and McCann, Dunn gets better pitches. So do Avi and Dayan.

 

Those 5 combined provide massive power.

 

Enough that you can probably live with Gordon, Alexei, Semien, and ADA.

 

De Aza is second on the team in home runs, silly.

 

Ideally, he is your #2 hitter and he reverts back to the .280/.350/.400 guy he can be and someone with better on base skills leading off. In my world, that's Semien.