Hahn:Ventura will return in 2014

[ewokpelts]

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/08/07/ber...e-sox-optimism/

 

 

 

 

 

This is stupid. No team has ever done this because teams that are in a position to dump overpaid veterans for underperformance are the same teams that also need prospects to rebuild. This is the type of idea someone would get when they don't understand how professional sports work.

Plus, what would the sox have to give up to acquire the bloated payroll AND cost effective prospects?

[Chicago White Sox]

At least we know Marty isn't a troll, he's just Dan Berstein.

[Rowand44]

While searching on Google for the wonderful Dan Bernstein "Kobe is a Bull" bulls***, I found this wonderful Soxtalk thread http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...=58909&st=0

That was a fun thread to go through.

[Dick Allen]

Plus, what would the sox have to give up to acquire the bloated payroll AND cost effective prospects?

Bernstein's idea works in the NBA because of salary caps and luxury tax, and if you pick high, your draft pick makes an immediate impact., but he got his sports screwed up as he mentioned the Salary cap his first draft of this article. There is no salary cap in baseball. Marty then tried to fix this theory up for baseball and thought the Sox could get a guy like BJ Upton who is owed $60 million the next 4 years and put up a .557 OPS while fanning more frequently per AB than Adam Dunn this year, and who hasn't put up .760 OPS for 5 years, eat $30 million, and have a team give you a worthwhile prospect for BJ Upton and that $30 million. This is beyond flawed. Why would a team commit $30 million for Upton and give up someone who could easily outperform him at a fraction of the cost? And why would the White Sox spend $30 million on a non can't miss stud prospect? The only one that wins is the Braves. But as was pointed out before with Bernstein's plan, the teams dumping these players need the prospects to take that spot. Add in the new TV money, I really don't think there are desperate teams out there.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Marty34]

Bernstein's idea works in the NBA because of salary caps and luxury tax, and if you pick high, your draft pick makes an immediate impact., but he got his sports screwed up as he mentioned the Salary cap his first draft of this article. There is no salary cap in baseball. Marty then tried to fix this theory up for baseball and thought the Sox could get a guy like BJ Upton who is owed $60 million the next 4 years and put up a .557 OPS while fanning more frequently per AB than Adam Dunn this year, and who hasn't put up .760 OPS for 5 years, eat $30 million, and have a team give you a worthwhile prospect for BJ Upton and that $30 million. This is beyond flawed. Why would a team commit $30 million for Upton and give up someone who could easily outperform him at a fraction of the cost? And why would the White Sox spend $30 million on a non can't miss stud prospect? The only one that wins is the Braves. But as was pointed out before with Bernstein's plan, the teams dumping these players need the prospects to take that spot. Add in the new TV money, I really don't think there are desperate teams out there.

 

Because they don't want to chance spending $90M on the Hunter Pences of the world?

[Dick Allen]

Because they don't want to chance spending $90M on the Hunter Pences of the world?

Again you are making no sense. Why trade a prospect who can easily out perform Upton while making minimum or close for 3 years for a .557 OPS guy and owe him $30 million? And if the prospect isn't someone who can outperform that, why in the world would a team spend $30 million on crap like that? It would make zero sense to the White Sox, and zero sense to a team Upton would be passed along. It would be great for the Braves.

 

Dumb organizations wouldn't even do this.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Marty34]

Again you are making no sense. Why trade a prospect who can easily out perform Upton while making minimum or close for 3 years for a .557 OPS guy and owe him $30 million? And if the prospect isn't someone who can outperform that, why in the world would a team spend $30 million on crap like that? It would make zero sense to the White Sox, and zero sense to a team Upton would be passed along. It would be great for the Braves.

 

Dumb organizations wouldn't even do this.

 

I believe there is at least one team out that would jump at the chance to get Upton at $30M in the belief that he will bounce back to his Tampa performance level.

[caulfield12]

Scary.

 

This Upton for salary relief or Upton for Dunn (balancing salary relief) was one of my many ideas at the beginning of the season before I gave up.

 

Now Marty's continuing to push it?

[Dick Allen]

I believe there is at least one team out that would jump at the chance to get Upton at $30M in the belief that he will bounce back to his Tampa performance level.

Even if there was, which is not likely, there isn't one willing to give up a prospect worth anywhere near the $30 million your proposal has the Sox eating. A prospect worth anywhere near that figure is far more desirable than Upton,and $30 million for mediocre prospect is a ridiculous waste of money. Back to the drawing board.

Edited October 2, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Marty34]

Even if there was, which is not likely, there isn't one willing to give up a prospect worth anywhere near the $30 million your proposal has the Sox eating. Back to the drawing board.

 

There's a lot we don't know in order to decide if that is a true statement or not.

[Dick Allen]

There's a lot we don't know in order to decide if that is a true statement or not.

I think we do. If a team was willing to give up that nice of a prospect, the Braves wouldn't need the White Sox help. They would gain a better player than Upton at half the cost.

 

Seriously, I know you will always have to have the final word, but your idea, to put it politely, is unrealistic.

[caulfield12]

Bad contract (Dunn) for bad contract (Upton) might have been feasible...

 

But how many prospects could you argue were worth $30 million at age 18 or 19?

 

Maybe Harper or Griffey, Jr.?

[Dick Allen]

Bad contract (Dunn) for bad contract (Upton) might have been feasible...

 

But how many prospects could you argue were worth $30 million at age 18 or 19?

 

Maybe Harper or Griffey, Jr.?

Let alone why would a team give up any reasonable prospect for BJUpton and a $30 million committment? He was Adam Dunn 2011 bad in 2013. I wouldn't trade Dunn for Upton. $15 million vs. $60 million.

Edited October 2, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Marty34]

Bad contract (Dunn) for bad contract (Upton) might have been feasible...

 

But how many prospects could you argue were worth $30 million at age 18 or 19?

 

Maybe Harper or Griffey, Jr.?

 

It does not have to be a star prospect for it to work. Using Upton as the example the question should be, is the prospect(s) they were to receive in return for eating half of Upton's contract the best way to spend $30M in payroll over the next 2 seasons to improve the team long-term?

[Marty34]

Let alone why would a team give up any reasonable prospect for BJUpton and a $30 million committment? He was Adam Dunn 2011 bad in 2013. I wouldn't trade Dunn for Upton. $15 million vs. $60 million.

 

I could be wrong maybe there would be no market for Upton at $30M. We just don't know.

Edited October 2, 2013 by Marty34

[Dick Allen]

I could be wrong maybe there would be no market for Upton at $30M. We just don't know.

It is not only $30 million, its also a prospect worthwhile of the Sox' $30 million.

[witesoxfan]

It does not have to be a star prospect for it to work. Using Upton as the example the question should be, is the prospect(s) they were to receive in return for eating half of Upton's contract the best way to spend $30M in payroll over the next 2 seasons to improve the team long-term?

 

Then why the hell would you do it? A team is saving $30 million, but you are taking on a prospect who MIGHT start for $30 million worth of s*** contract. It's a terrible idea in theory and practice. Teams have no problems giving up low level talent as throw ins in trades. Carlos Santana was a Dodgers farm hand, David Holmberg a White Sox farm hand. Teams also have no problem giving up marginal prospects for depth and minor upgrades. The Cubs got Arrietta and Strop for Scott f'ing Feldman.

 

I mean, seriously, how is this ever a good idea on any facet?

[Chicago White Sox]

It does not have to be a star prospect for it to work. Using Upton as the example the question should be, is the prospect(s) they were to receive in return for eating half of Upton's contract the best way to spend $30M in payroll over the next 2 seasons to improve the team long-term?

This has to be the dumbest thing I've ever read in my life. Spending $30M to acquire anything less than an elite prospext is buttf***ing stupid because 1) 99.5% prospects are far from guarantees & 2) even if that prospect makes it the pros you'll still have to pay him a f***ton of money if he's worth a damn on top of the $30M you spent to get him. So the best case scenario is you paid $30M for a guys' pre-arb years and basically lost all the surplus value a prospect normally provides if they're successful. More likely you threw away $30M on a prospect who doesn't pan out. Either way, nothing is gained by making such a move.

 

Just all-around a completely stupid idea and if you're going to throw significant money away on a B prospect then you might as well go full rebuild and spend like Astros have recently while saving your money for a time when you're actually trying to be competitive.

[Marty34]

It is not only $30 million, its also a prospect worthwhile of the Sox' $30 million.

 

I thought that was assumed as that's he only way the Sox pick up $30M. Anyway, given the price tag on Pence, I think teams might prefer to acquire a guy who had a bad year if it means they can get him at a severe discount through the Sox.

[witesoxfan]

I thought that was assumed as that's he only way the Sox pick up $30M. Anyway, given the price tag on Pence, I think teams might prefer to acquire a guy who had a bad year if it means they can get him at a severe discount through the Sox.

 

No, this is wrong. They'd rather sign a minor league free agent who put up a .700 OPS and can run than spend $30 million on a guy who was absolutely putrid all around last year in hopes that he can discover the form he showed 6 years ago for 1 season.

[Marty34]

This has to be the dumbest thing I've ever read in my life. Spending $30M to acquire anything less than an elite prospext is buttf***ing stupid because 1) 99.5% prospects are far from guarantees & 2) even if that prospect makes it the pros you'll still have to pay him a f***ton of money if he's worth a damn on top of the $30M you spent to get him. So the best case scenario is you paid $30M for a guys' pre-arb years and basically lost all the surplus value a prospect normally provides if they're successful. More likely you threw away $30M on a prospect who doesn't pan out. Either way, nothing is gained by making such a move.

 

Just all-around a completely stupid idea and if you're going to throw significant money away on a B prospect then you might as well go full rebuild and spend like Astros have recently while saving your money for a time when you're actually trying to be competitive.

 

What are the Sox going to do with that $30M over the next 2 years? Save it, maybe, but that doesn't help anything in 2014 & 2015.

[witesoxfan]

No, this is wrong. They'd rather sign a minor league free agent who put up a .700 OPS and can run than spend $30 million on a guy who was absolutely putrid all around last year in hopes that he can discover the form he showed 6 years ago for 1 season.

 

N. Gregory Mankiw's 3rd Principle of Economics:

 

People think at the margin - A rational decision-maker takes action if and only if the marginal benefit of the action exceeds the marginal cost.

 

So, even worse than the original idea, you say some team will take on Upton for $30 million, the White Sox will eat $30 million, and the Braves will kick a prospect along, so then the White Sox really are spending $30 million entirely for the prospect.

[witesoxfan]

What are the Sox going to do with that $30M over the next 2 years? Save it, maybe, but that doesn't help anything in 2014 & 2015.

 

BECAUSE IT HELPS IN 2016

 

what the f***

[Marty34]

No, this is wrong. They'd rather sign a minor league free agent who put up a .700 OPS and can run than spend $30 million on a guy who was absolutely putrid all around last year in hopes that he can discover the form he showed 6 years ago for 1 season.

 

Well a team did agree to pay him $75M based on his production through 2012.

[witesoxfan]

Well a team did agree to pay him $75M based on his production through 2012.

 

The Braves. There was a team that agreed to pay Adam Dunn $56 million for his production through 2010 too. In baseball, due to each player being their own monopoly, they have the ability to sell themselves to the highest bidder. Upton was worth $75 million to someone, Dunn was worth $56 million to someone. Given the numbers they put up in their first years with their teams, they'd get contracts of maybe $1-2 million with incentives. They aren't going to get $30 million and no one will pay $30 million for Upton right now.