One move...

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

In today's hitting environment, I absolutely do. Even if he put up .285/.340/.420, that is still less than what you want from your 1B, especially on a team as devoid of talent as the Sox are offensively.

It might be less then you want but offense is down 15% in baseball, since 2006, the main culprits by position are 1st base, 3rd base and SS. Everyone there (1st)is old or injured . Funny how when runs were down and everyone was hitting worse Loney got better.Is the pitching in the Central so much better than the East ? There's a lot of RH pitchers in our divsion and Loney is capabe of being a .300 hitter full time. Yes, we need more bats around him to make him more productive and I'm hoping that happens too. I really can't see him being a goat if he hits near .300 hits 15 HR's and drives in 80 and shows a lot more range in the field than Dunn and Konerko.

Edited October 9, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

James Loney just had his career year at 2.7 WAR, and he's poised to be overpaid. Also, despite his reputation for being a high end defender, he has managed a negative UZR literally every year of his career. Sure, UZR can be wonky from year to year, but six consecutive years of below average numbers paints a pretty compelling picture.

 

At his best, he's a touch above an average player, and he's about to be overpaid to enter his decline years.

He's 29 turns 30 around May I think .He won't get a lot of years or dollars since so few ( judging by this board) don't want 1stbasemen who don't hit for (as much as you all want) power. I don't think his UZR paints much of a picture at all. Texeria, generally considered an above avg. 1st baseman is the only guy who saved more runs than Loney since 2008 and only by 2 runs. If his ex manager Joe Torre says he's a good fielder I'll take his word for it rather than the woefully inadeqaute UZR which seems to only reward players at premium positions.

Edited October 9, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

A guy coming off a career-best year and turning 30? yeah, reductions in his performance should be expected.

Career best in some areas not others. Since when is 30 old? Up to 32 was always consider prime years even before steroids made primes last longer.

[southsider2k5]

His one bad year. If you use that as your gauge ,Konerko had a few bad years. Did you think that was likely to happen for the rest of career also.

 

Judging by how many people wanted to trade him after 2003, yes, many did.

[Eminor3rd]

He's 29 turns 30 around May I think .He won't get a lot of years or dollars since so few ( judging by this board) don't want 1stbasemen who don't hit for (as much as you all want) power. I don't think his UZR paints much of a picture at all. Texeria, generally considered an above avg. 1st baseman is the only guy who saved more runs than Loney since 2008 and only by 2 runs. If his ex manager Joe Torre says hea a good fielder I'll take his word for it rather than the woefully inadeqaute UZR which seems to only rewardplayers at premium position.

 

What exactly about UZR makes it woefully inadequate?

[Balta1701]

Career best in some areas not others. Since when is 30 old? Up to 32 was always consider prime years even before steroids made primes last longer.

Here's one look at it. Almost every relevant stat for players who last into their 30's peaks before 30 and is declining afterwards. Obviously it depends on the player of course, but if we look back at his career at the end, we should have zero surprise if his 29 year old season winds up being his best season.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

What exactly about UZR makes it woefully inadequate?

Quoting the ESPN insider article I referenced earlier "He's been above average as a first baseman every season of his career according to DRS. Since his first full season in 2008, Loney has recorded more good fielding plays -- as defined by Baseball Info Solutions -- than every other first baseman except Mark Teixeira (400 versus 398). so someones wrong . Guess you can believe what you want and I'll believe Torre and DRS.

[witesoxfan]

It might be less then you want but offense is down 15% in baseball, the main culprits by position are 1st base, 3rd base and SS. Everyone there (1st)is old or injured . Funny how when runs were down and everyone was hitting worse Loney got better.Is the pitching in the Central so much better than the East ? There's a lot of RH pitchers in our divsion and Loney is capabe of being a .300 hitter full time. Yes, we need more bats around him to make him more productive and I'm hoping that happens too. I really can't see him being a goat if he hits near .300 hits 15 HR's and drives in 80 and shows a lot more range in the field than Dunn and Konerko.

 

He wouldn't be a goat if he did that. The problem is that the odds of him doing that are incredibly small. On top of that, the track record of Rays players leaving the team and underperforming or flat out sucking is extensive. Keppinger, Upton, Kotchman, hell, even Crawford have all been poor after leaving. I'm probably forgetting a few too.

 

I don't know what it is they put in the water, but guys go crazy down there and then bomb elsewhere. That alone is more than reason enough for me to not want any of their fluky, 1 year wonder players.

[Balta1701]

James Loney just had his career year at 2.7 WAR, and he's poised to be overpaid. Also, despite his reputation for being a high end defender, he has managed a negative UZR literally every year of his career. Sure, UZR can be wonky from year to year, but six consecutive years of below average numbers paints a pretty compelling picture.

 

At his best, he's a touch above an average player, and he's about to be overpaid to enter his decline years.

Wait, I just went to fangraphs and this isn't true.

Here's his UZR by year:

3.7

-3.5

-10.3

1.2

-0.2

4.0

7.6

6.1

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Here's one look at it. Almost every relevant stat for players who last into their 30's peaks before 30 and is declining afterwards. Obviously it depends on the player of course, but if we look back at his career at the end, we should have zero surprise if his 29 year old season winds up being his best season.

Corey Hart will be 32 starting in March and has had 2 knee surgeries and didnt play at all last year. Kendry Morales put up a similiar season to Loney offensively had 8 more HR's yet his wRC+ is 116 to Loneys 118 , his WAR 1.2 to Loney's 2.7 and turns 31 in June. Really who is out there ?? Yes I want Abreu , yes, I was dyng for the Sox to somehow get Adams from the Cards at the trade deadline. I don't see a better option for a LH bat which we need desperately.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

He wouldn't be a goat if he did that. The problem is that the odds of him doing that are incredibly small. On top of that, the track record of Rays players leaving the team and underperforming or flat out sucking is extensive. Keppinger, Upton, Kotchman, hell, even Crawford have all been poor after leaving. I'm probably forgetting a few too.

 

I don't know what it is they put in the water, but guys go crazy down there and then bomb elsewhere. That alone is more than reason enough for me to not want any of their fluky, 1 year wonder players.

I can't believe such a fine baseball mind as you possess buys into that Rays players flukiness theory. Hey 2014 is an even numbered year for the Sox and recent history suggest those are our lucky years so I'll go with that bit of flukiness over yours.

Edited October 9, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Wait, I just went to fangraphs and this isn't true.

Here's his UZR by year:

3.7

-3.5

-10.3

1.2

-0.2

4.0

7.6

6.1

I'm ashamed someone would get their info wrong trying to make a point . That never happens here

[Balta1701]

Corey Hart will be 32 starting in March and has had 2 knee surgeries and didnt play at all last year. Kendry Morales put up a similiar season to Loney offensively had 8 more HR's yet his wRC+ is 116 to Loneys 118 , his WAR 1.2 to Loney's 2.7 and turns 31 in June. Really who is out there ?? Yes I want Abreu , yes, I was dyng for the Sox to somehow get Adams from the Cards at the trade deadline. I don't see a better option for a LH bat which we need desperately.

A big part of the difference in WAR for Morales is that he spent a large portion of the last 2 seasons at DH. The teams he's been on, notably, have had other guys who also play 1b that they would want to put out there (named Smoak and Pujols). Spending more time at DH hurts his overall numbers in the position adjustment. Consequently there's not a lot of details on his defensive performance the last 2 years but he has been a positive defender in the past, although the last few seasons are spotty because of the injury and DH time.

[witesoxfan]

Over Loney's last 3,596 plate appearances, which includes this past season, he's put up splits of .280/.336/.404/.740. Over his last 4 full years in LA - excluding the previous 2 seasons - he's put up splits of .281/.341/.411/.752. There's not a lot that inspires confidence in these numbers whatsoever.

 

Loney is a guy I want the Sox to avoid. Maybe he did figure something out with his swing, but I think the Sox need to let someone else deal with that. He's not going to make much of a difference in the Sox fortunes. Frankly, I'd rather see them let Wilkins start as opposed to bringing in Loney.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Over Loney's last 3,596 plate appearances, which includes this past season, he's put up splits of .280/.336/.404/.740. Over his last 4 full years in LA - excluding the previous 2 seasons - he's put up splits of .281/.341/.411/.752. There's not a lot that inspires confidence in these numbers whatsoever.

 

Loney is a guy I want the Sox to avoid. Maybe he did figure something out with his swing, but I think the Sox need to let someone else deal with that. He's not going to make much of a difference in the Sox fortunes. Frankly, I'd rather see them let Wilkins start as opposed to bringing in Loney.

The only way I'd say it makes sense for the Sox to land Loney is if they add 2 major bats elsewhere. If they add McCann and successfully trade for a big bat at 3b (and no, I have no idea who that would be that works), then that could make sense. (Granderson also does not fit the billing here because he's only a moderate upgrade over De Aza based on his last couple seasons).

[caulfield12]

He wouldn't be a goat if he did that. The problem is that the odds of him doing that are incredibly small. On top of that, the track record of Rays players leaving the team and underperforming or flat out sucking is extensive. Keppinger, Upton, Kotchman, hell, even Crawford have all been poor after leaving. I'm probably forgetting a few too.

 

I don't know what it is they put in the water, but guys go crazy down there and then bomb elsewhere. That alone is more than reason enough for me to not want any of their fluky, 1 year wonder players.

 

 

Carlos Pena also comes to mind...Baldelli, although that was more of a freak injury/illness situation.

 

Delmon Young, I guess, did better once he left Tampa, overall.

 

Manny Aybar. That Japanese infielder, Iwamura?

 

Didn't one of the LaRoche's put up a good season or two for the Rays?

 

 

It has definitely been true in terms of their relief corps. Anyone want to take Fernando Rodney as a closer and pray he'll do anything for them? Or Rafael Soriano. Farnsworth, etc. Howell. Baez.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Caulfield forgot Dioner Navarro!!

[caulfield12]

Caulfield forgot Dioner Navarro!!

 

 

I almost included him, lol.

 

Remember he came from the Yankees, where he was a pretty hot prospect/top 10 guy.

 

 

 

Elliot Johnson. Kelly Johnson. Jorge Cantu. Jhonny Gomes. Dan Johnson. Jason Bartlett.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Over Loney's last 3,596 plate appearances, which includes this past season, he's put up splits of .280/.336/.404/.740. Over his last 4 full years in LA - excluding the previous 2 seasons - he's put up splits of .281/.341/.411/.752. There's not a lot that inspires confidence in these numbers whatsoever.

 

Loney is a guy I want the Sox to avoid. Maybe he did figure something out with his swing, but I think the Sox need to let someone else deal with that. He's not going to make much of a difference in the Sox fortunes. Frankly, I'd rather see them let Wilkins start as opposed to bringing in Loney.

His numbers aren't spectacular by any means but they are solid. Again from the ESPN insider article. "Many of last offseason's big free-agent hitters, including Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton and Adam LaRoche, proved to be major disappointments these season. Many of the more defensive-minded signings, however, such as Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and Russell Martin, played major roles in helping their respective teams to the playoffs.

 

Many here have ached for BJ Upton how wouldv'e that worked out ? Are you expecting Loney to get some massive contract ? You'd really prefer a minor leaguer in the Sox system who the Sox showed no inclination to give any ML time to? I guess we'll see how it all works out . I've already bookmarked this thread for future reference .

 

It's not the only position I want upgraded and I think a more team oriented game with more emphasis on pitching ,defense and stolen bases is the coming era of baseball. I'd like the Sox to be at the forefront. Trust me I love the 3 run HR. It's not that I want a recreation of the Go-Go Sox or don't realize we play in a HR hitters haven. Power bats are hard to find now I just want a reliable hitter with a good glove at as many positions as possible. I want better matchups against the right handed pitching dominace of our Central Division rivals. This s*** of the last year just doesn't fly with me. I wanted Indians to lose that playoff game because they kicked our asses 13 games in a row.

 

I'm pissed I wanna beat the sons of b****es next year real bad. But I respect how they went about the changes. Strength up the middle. Bourne (speed and defense ) , Kipnis, Santana and a lot of lefties. Not greatness anywhere. Kipnis is elite for his position but not a true superstar like from the steroids era but the new style superstar , speed , defense , spray the ball all around the yard. Solid starters and bullpen. Yea I'm holding up Cleveland of all teams as an example of what the coming era is about. If you treat baseball more like the other sports the teams you want to beat are the ones in your own division. If you can beat them , the rest takes care of itself. The quickest way to get compeitive quickly is upgrading the talent level at a lot of positions to beat your division rivals. Also, like other sports , treat baseball as if there's a defensive side to it also. The information age is in its infancy in baseball but its coming. Players on defense will go into shifts for every hitter that comes to the dish. The Pirates defense in particular is getting praised for that now to some extent.

 

Shape your team to beat the Central and the rest pretty much takes care of itself . I hate Cleveland like SS2k hates Detroit just because of what they did to the Sox this year. f*** Cleveland ! and f*** Detroit too. Rant over.

Edited October 10, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

His numbers aren't spectacular by any means but they are solid. Again from the ESPN insider article. "Many of last offseason's big free-agent hitters, including Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton and Adam LaRoche, proved to be major disappointments these season. Many of the more defensive-minded signings, however, such as Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and Russell Martin, played major roles in helping their respective teams to the playoffs.

 

Many here have ached for BJ Upton how wouldv'e that worked out ? Are you expecting Loney to get some massive contract ? You'd really prefer a minor leaguer in the Sox system who the Sox showed no inclination to give any ML time to? I guess we'll see how it all works out . I've already bookmarked this thread for future reference .

 

It's not the only position I want upgraded and I think a more team oriented game with more emphasis on pitching ,defense and stolen bases is the coming era of baseball. I'd like the Sox to be at the forefront. Trust me I love the 3 run HR. It's not that I want a recreation of the Go-Go Sox or don't realize we play in a HR hitters haven. Power bats are hard to find now I just want a reliable hitter with a good glove at as many positions as possible. I want better matchups against the right handed pitching dominace of our Central Division rivals. This s*** of the last year just doesn't fly with me. I wanted Indians to lose that playoff game because they kicked our asses 13 games in a row.

 

I'm pissed I wanna beat the sons of b****es next year real bad. But I respect how they went about the changes. Strength up the middle. Bourne (speed and defense ) , Kipnis, Santana and a lot of lefties. Not greatness anywhere. Kipnis is elite for his position but not a true superstar like from the steroids era but the new style superstar , speed , defense , spray the ball all around the yard. Solid starters and bullpen. Yea I'm holding up Cleveland of all teams as an example of what the coming era is about. If you treat baseball more like the other sports the teams you want to beat are the ones in your own division. If you can beat them , the rest takes care of itself. The quickest way to get compeitive quickly is upgrading the talent level at a lot of positions to beat your division rivals. Also, like other sports , treat baseball as if there's a defensive side to it also. The information age is in its infancy in baseball but its coming. Players on defense will go into shifts for every hitter that comes to the dish. The Pirates defense in particular is getting praised for that now to some extent.

 

Shape your team to beat the Central and the rest pretty much takes care of itself . I hate Cleveland like SS2k hates Detroit just because of what they did to the Sox this year. f*** Cleveland ! and f*** Detroit too. Rant over.

 

Santana has a great (albeit inconsistent) bat, but he's Victor Martinez-esque defensively.

 

And yeah, it's hard to find a leadoff guy/CFer. God knows, we've tried to draft or trade for 4-5 of them.

 

 

Maybe Desmond Jennings would be available and is getting more expensive for the Rays, coming off a very disappointing year.

 

There's just no way you chase after Carlos Gomez and overpay if you look at his whole career holistically and think of all of a sudden he's magically going to translate that to the AL.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2013 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

Wait, I just went to fangraphs and this isn't true.

Here's his UZR by year:

3.7

-3.5

-10.3

1.2

-0.2

4.0

7.6

6.1

 

Yeah, I didn't realize the FG began listing FLD as a position-adjusted version of UZR. My mistake. His numbers look worse because of the penalty.

[Vance Law]

The team that pays Loney based on 2013, a .778 OPS he hasn't had since 2007, is going to be about as happy about it as Rick Hahn is he signed Keppinger.

 

In 900 career PAs against lefties, Keppinger has an OPS of .829. Gillaspie was .738 against righties in his first full season. On paper, the two of them together should form one pretty decent full player.

 

[oldsox]

In 900 career PAs against lefties, Keppinger has an OPS of .829. Gillaspie was .738 against righties in his first full season. On paper, the two of them together should form one pretty decent full player.

They don't play games on paper, they play them on television (per some TV guy).

[caulfield12]

They don't play games on paper, they play them on television (per some TV guy).

 

Or on the backs of baseball cards/Strat-O-Matic.

[oldsox]

Hopefully, Abreu will have signed with someone by the time Sox have to make a decision about going after Loney. If we don't sign Abreu, Loney represents a big time improvement over 2012-13 at first base, both offensively and defensively. If he's affordable, I say go after him, assuming PK does not come back.