One move...

[Vance Law]

Beckham was going in the right direction? Are you sure you didn't skip the second half of the season?

 

Ramirez was a much more consistent offensive contributor this season than Ramirez.

 

I'm sure 1/3rd of the fanbase is ready to non-tender Beckham, if not more.

 

If Carlos Sanchez didn't fall back this past season, then Sanchez and/or Semien would be your starters in 2014 (were they to deal Ramirez).

 

 

2012 OPS+

Ramirez 75

Beckham 80

 

2013 OPS+

Ramirez 86

Beckham 87

 

All of Ramirez's "consistency" still didn't average out to better than Beckham over the season. Beckham has improved each of the past 2 seasons even while having surgery on his hand. While Ramirez bounced back from 2012, his power and ability to draw a walk seem to have left him. But the biggest thing pointing to the difference in value of the 2 players is that Ramirez makes about 3 times as much money as Beckham.

 

 

I'm a very big fan of Semien. But neither his 32 games at AAA nor his 21 games in the majors (OPS+ 78) have proven that he's currently a better hitter at the major league level than Beckham. And I don't know anyone who suggests he's better defensively.

 

 

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

2012 OPS+

Ramirez 75

Beckham 80

 

2013 OPS+

Ramirez 86

Beckham 87

 

All of Ramirez's "consistency" still didn't average out to better than Beckham over the season. Beckham has improved each of the past 2 seasons even while having surgery on his hand. While Ramirez bounced back from 2012, his power and ability to draw a walk seem to have left him. But the biggest thing pointing to the difference in value of the 2 players is that Ramirez makes about 3 times as much money as Beckham.

 

 

I'm a very big fan of Semien. But neither his 32 games at AAA nor his 21 games in the majors (OPS+ 78) have proven that he's currently a better hitter at the major league level than Beckham. And I don't know anyone who suggests he's better defensively.

 

 

Therein lies the problem with the White Sox.

 

They haven't developed anyone to challenge most of their major league regulars.

 

There are no better options to replace Viciedo or DeAza (no, Danks isn't a regular!)

 

As far as the Beckham situation goes, it's more of a "change of scenery" situation where they might trade him for someone like Dustin Ackley to give him a fresh start.

 

I don't know exactly what Gordon's going to get in arbitration, but it's probably going to be $4.5-5.5 million. At a certain point, giving that playing time to Semien if he's expected to be the regular in the long term makes more sense.

 

I have no problem trading Ramirez simply because I don't think he's going to outperform the rest of his contract. They can play Beckham or Sanchez at SS, it really doesn't matter until 2015.

 

Beckham ALSO regressed defensively in 2013...showed diminished range, and the fact of the matter is that 2B in today's game are expected to provide a lot more pop than the SS position. We're still used to that steroids era when you have all those guys like Tejada, Garciaparra, Tejada, Jeter, etc., putting up huge numbers, but it's shifted away from SS to 2B in terms of power.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't a bigger difference between the average OPS at 2B and SS than between 3B and 2B. In other words, Beckham's just not getting the job done.

 

Edited October 6, 2013 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Kendrick from the Angels is supposedly avaialble again. Haven't researched who they have behind Kendrick but maybe a Beckham/Rienzo combo could get him since he's a free agent after 2015 ends. Kendrick doesnt walk much and is 30 now , but is a hitting, fielding, possibly speed upgrade over Beckham. Angels want pitching. Of course it also makes the Sox older but its only 2 years at $9.5M/yr. Sox could deal him at either deadline in those 2 years if no progress in standing are made. Perfect kind of contract for the Sox needs.

Edited October 6, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Balta1701]

Kendrick from the Angels is supposedly avaialble again. Haven't researched who they have behind Kendrick but maybe a Beckham/Rienzo combo could get him since he's a free agent after 2015 ends. Kendrick doesnt walk much and is 30 now , but is a hitting, fielding, possibly speed upgrade over Beckham. Angels want pitching. Of course it also makes the Sox older but its only 2 years at $9.5M/yr. Sox could deal him at either deadline in those 2 years if no progress in standing are made. Perfect kind of contract for the Sox needs.

That's an intriguing sort of move, with how Beckham has played it seems like it would be an upgrade, but it's not a move that really "fixes" this team on its own. If the Sox fill their 1b hole and perhaps upgrade the catcher's spot in free agency and are sitting there trying to figure out how to deal with having 6 starters ready for the big leagues on a team they want to compete next year, that could be an "icing on the cake" sort of move. Clears out the extra starter and does come up with an upgrade in exchange for about $6 million additional money. But it's not a move you make on its own - Rienzo + Beckham ought to be more valuable overall during that time period and for the couple years afterwards. You have to do something else to make that make sense.

[caulfield12]

Kendrick's a complimentary piece.

 

Like Balta said, he's probably an incremantal upgrade (arguably when you look at the cost/benefit analysis AND you also consider the difference in cost and then also giving up Rienzo)....but that's only a logical move when you've added say, McCann at catcher, Abreu at 1B and someone like Lawrie at 3B (for Santiago and Keppinger, let's say, or Quintana and Gillaspie for Lawrie and a pitcher).

Edited October 6, 2013 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Kendrick's a complimentary piece.

 

Like Balta said, he's probably an incremantal upgrade (arguably when you look at the cost/benefit analysis when you consider the difference in cost and then also giving up Rienzo)....but that's only a logical move when you've added say, McCann at catcher, Abreu at 1B and someone like Lawrie at 3B (for Santiago and Keppinger, let's say, or Quintana and Gillaspie for Lawrie and a pitcher).

Of course, it becomes really hard to make a deal make sense where you trade away Quintana or Santiago and demand MLB-ready pitching and a position player back.

[Marty34]

I think the Sox and Jays match up well as trading partners this offseason. I know there has been speculation on the board about a Quintana-for-Lawrie deal, but how about taking on Reyes' contract and swapping Santiago for Lawrie instead? a deal something like Santiago, Ramirez, and Beckham for Reyes and Lawrie.

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

That's an intriguing sort of move, with how Beckham has played it seems like it would be an upgrade, but it's not a move that really "fixes" this team on its own. If the Sox fill their 1b hole and perhaps upgrade the catcher's spot in free agency and are sitting there trying to figure out how to deal with having 6 starters ready for the big leagues on a team they want to compete next year, that could be an "icing on the cake" sort of move. Clears out the extra starter and does come up with an upgrade in exchange for about $6 million additional money. But it's not a move you make on its own - Rienzo + Beckham ought to be more valuable overall during that time period and for the couple years afterwards. You have to do something else to make that make sense.

Can only make one move at a time, one improvement at a time. So if SF gets Abreu you immediately go after Brandon Belt. Or maybe we get Abreu.

[Balta1701]

Can only make one move at a time, one improvement at a time. So if SF gets Abreu you immediately go after Brandon Belt. Or maybe we get Abreu.

The problem with doing damage in trades is...the Sox don't have many trade chips. If San Fran wins Abreu then what do the Sox have worth Brandon Belt? Certianly not Rienzo plus Beckham. That's "Quintana + Semien" or something like that territory. And lots of reports have the Giants wanting to move Belt to a corner OF position to add another bat to their lineup anyway, so they might not be interested in that at all.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The problem with doing damage in trades is...the Sox don't have many trade chips. If San Fran wins Abreu then what do the Sox have worth Brandon Belt? Certianly not Rienzo plus Beckham. That's "Quintana + Semien" or something like that territory. And lots of reports have the Giants wanting to move Belt to a corner OF position to add another bat to their lineup anyway, so they might not be interested in that at all.

Then there's always Loney , Morales, Corey Hart , Morneau . Signing a 1st baseman shouldn't be a problem preferably a LH good fielder. (Loney's been my choice for a while)

Edited October 6, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Balta1701]

Then there's always Loney , Morales, Corey Hart , Morneau . Signing a 1st baseman shouldn't be a problem preferably a LH good fielder. (Loney's been my choice for a while)

Then the question with any of those guys becomes...do they make the Sox good enough that it's willing to sacrifice a guy who can contribute cheaply in 2015-2017 for a guy who will help them compete this year?

 

If Abreu is as advertised, then I can believe the Sox have a shot next year. If the Sox sign Loney? Much more hesitant on that one.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Then the question with any of those guys becomes...do they make the Sox good enough that it's willing to sacrifice a guy who can contribute cheaply in 2015-2017 for a guy who will help them compete this year?

 

If Abreu is as advertised, then I can believe the Sox have a shot next year. If the Sox sign Loney? Much more hesitant on that one.

 

Guess it all depends on what the market is like for Loney. My personal strategy is improve the offense and defense for next year or longer (Kendricks 2 yrs, Loney hopefully not more than 3 )while keeping as much of the starting pitching as possible .So,yes ,I'm looking to compete next year so I'm not worried about how much Beckham/Rienzo contribute to the Angels as long as we get an upgrade at the position with a decent contract. Kendricks , Loney are big upgrades defensively and running the bases and adds a much needed LH bat. To upgrade talent you have to give up something and if thats Beckham and Rienzo futures , so be it.

 

Rienzo may end up a releiver or never make it at all while Beckham has disappointed for 4 years while Kendrick is top ten 2nd baseman in baseball with a very good all-around game. You just take your chances with trading young talent .Now with Loney and Kendricks you're improved in 2 areas without breaking the bank with still plenty of room to do more and kept our top 5 or 6 starters intact. A more rangy infield also improves the starting pitching so those are other reasons for those 2. Kendricks is 30 ,Loney turns 30 in May so both still in late stages of their primes.

 

With all the 1 run games the Sox played this season small incremental improvements in 5 or 6 areas may pay big dividends in the next 2 years if Avisail turns into the real deal. Those 2 moves actually improve you in starting hitting, starting defense, team speed, starting and relief pitching and balances the lineup without adding a pitcher.

Edited October 6, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

Guess it all depends on what the market is like for Loney. My personal strategy is improve the offense and defense for next year or longer (Kendricks 2 yrs, Loney hopefully not more than 3 )while keeping as much of the starting pitching as possible .So,yes ,I'm looking to compete next year so I'm not worried about how much Beckham/Rienzo contribute to the Angels as long as we get an upgrade at the position with a decent contract. Kendricks , Loney are big upgrades defensively and running the bases and adds a much needed LH bat. To upgrade talent you have to give up something and if thats Beckham and Rienzo futures , so be it.

 

Rienzo may end up a releiver or never make it at all while Beckham has disappointed for 4 years while Kendrick is top ten 2nd baseman in baseball with a very good all-around game. You just take your chances with trading young talent .Now with Loney and Kendricks you're improved in 2 areas without breaking the bank with still plenty of room to do more and kept our top 5 or 6 starters intact. A more rangy infield also improves the starting pitching so those are other reasons for those 2. Kendricks is 30 ,Loney turns 30 in May so both still in late stages of their primes.

 

With all the 1 run games the Sox played this season small incremental improvements in 5 or 6 areas may pay big dividends in the next 2 years if Avisail turns into the real deal. Those 2 moves actually improve you in starting hitting, starting defense, team speed, starting and relief pitching and balances the lineup without adding a pitcher.

 

But then Loney's coming off a career revitalizing year, and he's going to get (arguably) at least three years.

 

Not just because of Keppinger and the "Rays Factor", but you have have to be leery about rewarding anyone in that situation, buying high, so to speak.

 

At some point, you have to do your risk assessment and pull the trigger on someone if you ever want to improve...but my belief is we're more likely to use our financial flexibility to take someone coming off a down season or someone who's redundant on another roster (Andre Ethier) in a similar way to Thome with Howard pushing him out of a starting spot.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

But then Loney's coming off a career revitalizing year, and he's going to get (arguably) at least three years.

 

Not just because of Keppinger and the "Rays Factor", but you have have to be leery about rewarding anyone in that situation, buying high, so to speak.

 

At some point, you have to do your risk assessment and pull the trigger on someone if you ever want to improve...but my belief is we're more likely to use our financial flexibility to take someone coming off a down season or someone who's redundant on another roster (Andre Ethier) in a similar way to Thome with Howard pushing him out of a starting spot.

Even buying high on Loney won't be a big deal. He's not a power hitting 1st baseman but is good in other areas. I don't think there will be huge demand for him though the 1st base market is terrible ,so you never know, but he isn't likely to break the bank. With what we got from Konerko this year , Loney is an easy improvement and it's not like we lose the HR's Dunn provided at 1st base because he'll be fulltime DH . At this point I'm not concerned if Dunn hits better at 1st , get that 1 year off the books and move on. When you lose 99 games and have payroll flexibility how Keppinger played for the Rays and us and somehow applying it to Loney isn't a consideration.

 

Everybody comes with baggage and if they don't they cost you extreme dollars and years. My moves should avoid those extremes while adding players in their prime while improving the team in many ways as long as they produce at current levels.

Edited October 7, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[GreatScott82]

Free Agent Priority List

1. Abreu... Will replace Konerko at 1b and can potentially make the heart of the lineup much better.. He is only 26.

2. Granderson/Choo.... Granderson is much more realistic than Choo financially and will fill that CF hole in the outfield and he can step into that leadership role for the team in the post PK era.

3. McCann- This has been the worst offensive season for white sox catchers in a long time... An upgrade at the catcher position is desperately needed... I would even consider bringing A.J. back to finish his career here.

4. I'm calling it now, Alexie will be traded and we will have a new SS next year... Call me crazy but with all the displeasure the Cubs have for Castro, I can see the Sox attempting to trade some pitching for his services... (My dark horse deal of the winter)

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Abreu is obviously the hope but I would definitely buy low on Corey Hart before I buy high on Loney.

Hart's already said if the Brewer want him he'd give them a hometown discount with some kind of incentive laden contract. He really wants to stay there and he's another righty. Depends how high Loney get's . Right now thats a mystery . What do think Loney will get? I was hoping 3 years not more than around $15-20M but I have no idea how realistic that is.

[Eminor3rd]

Abreu is obviously the hope but I would definitely buy low on Corey Hart before I buy high on Loney.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Regardless, Loney should not be the guy we target. No power and we'd be buying high on him. The Dodgers practically gave him away for a reason. We lack power and 1B is a glaring hole, whoever we start at first base next year should have at least 20 HR capability.

 

James Loney's career high in HRs is 15 and he has playedat least 158 games 5 times. Conor Gillaspie's HR/AB rate is far superior than Loney's has EVER been and people around here b**** about his power all the time. Loney fits perfectly for the Rays and I hope he stays away from our Sox.

Guess we'll have to disagree. We can't just keep getting RH bats all the time. with so much RH pitching in our division. I really could live with either one. Hart has a lot more power , is a good fiellder , was an outfielder so had good speed . Don't know how he'll be after 1 surgery apiece on each knee . You want the guy coming off 2 knee surgeries, 2 yrs. older and didn't play at all last year and wants to stay with the Brewers bad enough that he said he'd give them a "generous discount."

 

I want the younger Loney who hits LH and hit .299 against both lefties and righties coming off a good year. We both probably prefer Abreu but odds on getting him appear long with the whole blind bid thing.

 

Either ,instead of the high bid on Abreu, would allow the Sox more wiggle room at other positions. If the Sox trade DeAza the LH bat becomes even more important.

 

Side note. Loney 3 for 3 in game 3 against the Red Sox.

Edited October 8, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Who do you think will be demanding a bigger contract Hart or Loney? Why does it matter if Hart is willing to sign Milwaukee at a hometown discount? Sure, the likeliness of him coming to Chicago is less but that doesn't mean Loney's a better fit. Loney is high risk, little reward. Hart is low risk, high reward. As you said though, agree to disagree.

I know Loney will get the bigger contract , no doubt at all but why is there concern about paying a guy in his prime coming of a good year when when the Sox have all kinds of room to sign him ? I don't understand why Loney is high risk after hitting as well as he did and Hart is low risk after 2 knee surgeries, 2 yrs older than Loney ,and missed the whole yr. Just because of a lower contract ? I know we could discuss this all day, I'm just trying to understand your point of view better ,but its good baseball discussion.

 

Hart's going to have quite a bit of adjusting to do physically after 2 surgeries and more adjusting after not facing ML pitching for over a year. We need more lefties. Where are the Sox going to get them ? McCann and Granderson ? What's your plan ?

[Balta1701]

I know Loney will get the bigger contract , no doubt at all but why is there concern about paying a guy in his prime coming of a good year when when the Sox have all kinds of room to sign him ? I don't understand why Loney is high risk after hitting as well as he did and Hart is low risk after 2 knee surgeries, 2 yrs older than Loney ,and missed the whole yr. Just because of a lower contract ? I know we could discuss this all day, I'm just trying to understand your point of view better ,but its good baseball discussion.

 

Hart's going to have quite a bit of adjusting to do physically after 2 surgeries and more adjusting after not facing ML pitching for over a year. We need more lefties. Where are the Sox going to get them ? McCann and Granderson ? What's your plan ?

Because Loney's salary is going to be based in large part on what he did last year and his performance last year is an anomaly relative to the rest of his career.

 

The rest of his career he's been a guy teams would happily replace if they had a better option. This year he's been a valuable player. If you pay him like a valuable player and next year he goes back to being "guy you'd be very happy to send to the bench for a better hitter", you're stuck with another unmovable contract.

[LittleHurt05]

Because Loney's salary is going to be based in large part on what he did last year and his performance last year is an anomaly relative to the rest of his career.

 

The rest of his career he's been a guy teams would happily replace if they had a better option. This year he's been a valuable player. If you pay him like a valuable player and next year he goes back to being "guy you'd be very happy to send to the bench for a better hitter", you're stuck with another unmovable contract.

 

And Tampa has a history of success with such guys, but the success usually doesn't carry over to other teams.

[witesoxfan]

And Tampa has a history of success with such guys, but the success usually doesn't carry over to other teams.

 

You wouldn't happen to be talking about Jeff Keppinger now would you?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Because Loney's salary is going to be based in large part on what he did last year and his performance last year is an anomaly relative to the rest of his career.

 

The rest of his career he's been a guy teams would happily replace if they had a better option. This year he's been a valuable player. If you pay him like a valuable player and next year he goes back to being "guy you'd be very happy to send to the bench for a better hitter", you're stuck with another unmovable contract.

I'm just thinking that his contract won't be so high that it'll be unmovable. He's a lifetime .285 hitter and .340 OBP and has been very durable. Sure he's not the hig HR or OPS guy you ideally want at 1st but he's also a better runner and fielder than those types. He had a base salary of $2M with Tampa . He's not high risk nor little reward if you value consistency and a guy you know what to expect from when put in the lineup every day. Plus he's in his prime and probably is capable of hitting 20 HR playing half his games in the Cell though I wouldn't expect it. I think Hart can be described as high risk , high reward but not low risk at all. I think 3 years $20-25M is really ideal for the Sox now with his lefthandedness.

Edited October 8, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

While I'd love to keep going haha, my views on Loney are very similar to Balta's displayed in his last post. Obviously 1B is not QB in the NFL but Loney is like a David Garrard or Josh Freeman or Kerry Collins. He's serviceable and a top 20 1B and even a top 15 in a good year, but he's not what we need. Looking at what we have at 2B-SS-3B, I'd be happy to get 30 homers out of those three positions. Loney brings a 15 HR career high.

 

Hart, coming off his surgeries, was very consistent and powerful in his four seasons prior. He would come at a discounted rate and before his surgeries he wasn't a clogger like PK or Morales. Obviously it's not a given he returns to form, but if he's 80% of what he used to be he's better than Loney for our team. Tieing that with the two contracts I like Hart way more.

My original plan was to upgrade the HR's at 2nd (also the fielding) by trading for Howie Kendrick .Now you've got 2 guy's who can hit 15 HR's apiece at 1st and 2nd, 2 good hitters, two good runners and 2 good fielders, improving productivity at 2 positions of need . They both hit near .300 so even though neither walks a lot still upgrades OBP too. They both seem like professional hitters , consistent without being extraordinary while still young enough and inexpensive enough to provide 2-3 years worth of quality service time and still money to spend. I'm just not looking for huge bats but better bats, gloves, amd speed then we have right now . Get on move 'em over types. Guys that can go from 1st to 3rd on a base hit. Players that upgrade in 3 areas that need improvements, hitting ,defense and baserunning. They won't ever carry a team on their backs but they add all the little extras that go into winning more games and playing sound baseball.

 

It just reminds me of a few years ago when discussing Derrick Lee vs Adam Laroche . I was in the minority there ( by a lot) wanting LaRoche . I'll take the younger , most recent success guy almost every time when I don't think his salary will be exorbitant at all.

[Chicago White Sox]

Signing Loney to a 3 year deal would be a horrible move. When you have arguably the worst offense in baseball, you don't sign a below-average offensive player to a multi-year deal to fill a position that is naturally offense-oriented. If you miss out on Abreu, Morales, and Hart then you might as well check the non-tender list or try to acquire a minor league that's blocked. I don't see any reason to go with James Loney unless it's a cheap, one year deal and even then I'd explore other options first.