Sox to Make Hard Push for Granderson

[Dick Allen]

That might be the worst justification ever. I get the argument of whether a draft pick or player is better for the franchise, but listing all of the picks at that specific spot? Unless you are making the argument that the Sox should forfeit the pick, it is bad.

Just pointing out if the Sox signed Granderson and forfeited the pick, Granderson has a far better chance of being a better player for the team than that pick does. If you want to argue he isn't worth the money or whatever, that's fine, as far as the pick, it should be insignificant.

[witesoxfan]

Just pointing out if the Sox signed Granderson and forfeited the pick, Granderson has a far better chance of being a better player for the team than that pick does. If you want to argue he isn't worth the money or whatever, that's fine, as far as the pick, it should be insignificant.

 

No, it is significant. The Sox minor league system is still bad and they need to supplement it. Giving up this pick is essentially trading a prospect for Granderson.

[southsider2k5]

Just pointing out if the Sox signed Granderson and forfeited the pick, Granderson has a far better chance of being a better player for the team than that pick does. If you want to argue he isn't worth the money or whatever, that's fine, as far as the pick, it should be insignificant.

 

The Sox have turned plenty of 2nd round picks into major leaguers.

[Dick Allen]

The pick at #53 isn't the point. It's the $$ that are allotted to that spot. The Sox have a certain amount of money (about $10 million) that they are able to use for their top 10 picks. Lets say they pay the #3 overall pick somewhere in the $5 million range. That leaves $5 million for rest of 10 rounds. If you trade the 2nd rounder you also trade the amount of money that is slotted for that spot. You can't just use the $10 million for the remaining 9 spots. Signing Granderson would be a horrible decision. That's why talking about it is stupid. The organization isn't that dumb, at least I hope not.

Again, they would use most of that money anyway on that pick, which odds are, won't contribute to the team much, if at all, ever. And the other money would be for even later longer odds guys. If there is a player the Sox think will help them the next 3 or 4 years, the draft pick compensation should not be an issue, especially since it isn't even a first round pick. and really, with all the other competive balance and comp picks, it's almost a 3rd rounder in reality.

[Dick Allen]

The Sox have turned plenty of 2nd round picks into major leaguers.

How many were as good as Granderson?

[southsider2k5]

How many were as good as Granderson?

 

Not the right question.

[royoung]

No, it is significant. The Sox minor league system is still bad and they need to supplement it. Giving up this pick is essentially trading a prospect for Granderson.

 

 

I agree. It's a crapshoot for sure, but the more opportunities you have to select and develop young talent, the better chance you have.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

Wes Whisler

Craig Italiano

Chad Huffman

Kyle Lotzker

Seth Lintz

Brooks Pounders

Todd Cunningham

Dwight Smith

Collin Wiles

Andrew Knapp

 

The last 10 #53 picks. The draft pick should not be a deterrent in signing Granderson.

 

For a historical perspective, here are some players taken at or after the 53rd pick... NOT choosen by the white sox.

 

Yunel Escobar (23.2 WAR)

Chase Headley (17.5 WAR)

Giancarlo Stanton (14.8 WAR)

Trevor Cahill (11.0 WAR)

Justin Masterson (11.0 WAR)

Jason Kipnis (11.0 WAR)

Freddie Freeman (9.3 WAR)

Drew Smyly (4.2 WAR)

Nolan Arenado (3.9 WAR)

Jedd Gyorko (2.2 WAR)

 

Other second round picks (taken before #53)

Jordan Zimmermann

Chris Tillman

 

Jacob Petricka and Erik Johnson are both second round picks who likely will provide significant contributions to the Sox in 2014.

 

From 2009-2013, Curtis Granderson has amassed 18.4 WAR averaging 3.7 WAR per season. Considering his injuries last season and two "breakout seasons" prior, I think it is a fair comp of what he would provide to the Sox. So, let's assume the Sox sign him for 3/42, the Sox will pay Granderson aproximately 1m per win share.

 

Compared to a "best case scenario" second round pick (based on averaging out the WAR of the list above), the Sox would be paying $200,000 per win share.

 

This is all assuming the White draft someone that actually makes it to the majors. (BIG IF).

 

I'm torn. *shrug*

[Dick Allen]

Not the right question.

OK

Forster 1970 20.7

Wickman 1990 17.2

Weaver 1997 (not signed) 15.4

Sweeney 2003 6.3

 

The only 4 players the White Sox have ever selected in the second round with a career WAR over 2.0.

[Eminor3rd]

Just pointing out if the Sox signed Granderson and forfeited the pick, Granderson has a far better chance of being a better player for the team than that pick does. If you want to argue he isn't worth the money or whatever, that's fine, as far as the pick, it should be insignificant.

 

You crazy!

 

The second round pick is NOT valueless, thus your argument that forfeiting something of value should have no effect on the decision to sign him is just flat out wrong.

 

What about Erik Johnson? Second round pick, yes? Had we forfeited that pick, we'd be down our #1 prospect today.

[Dunt]

Wes Whisler

Craig Italiano

Chad Huffman

Kyle Lotzker

Seth Lintz

Brooks Pounders

Todd Cunningham

Dwight Smith

Collin Wiles

Andrew Knapp

 

The last 10 #53 picks. The draft pick should not be a deterrent in signing Granderson.

 

As other posters have already pointed out, you can find a player anywhere in the draft, but the probability of landing a difference maker is higher in higher rounds. Here are some names taken in the second round over the last 10 years:

 

2003

Scott Baker

Andre Ethier

Nate Schierholtz

 

2004

Dustin Pedroia

Hunter Pence

Yovani Gallardo

 

2005

Chase Headley

Yunel Escobar

Kevin Slowey

 

2006

Trevor Cahill

Jon Jay

Brett Anderson

 

2007

Giancarlo Stanton

Jordan Zimmerman

Freddie Freeman

 

2008

Tanner Scheppers

Not much else of note

 

2009

Jason Kipnis

Pat Corbin

Billy Hamilton

 

2010

Jedd Gyorko

Andrelton Simmons

Drew Smyly

 

2011

Austin Hedges

Erik Johnson

Josh Bell

 

I think you get the picture. There is a lot of value to be had at that slot.

[Dick Allen]

You crazy!

 

The second round pick is NOT valueless, thus your argument that forfeiting something of value should have no effect on the decision to sign him is just flat out wrong.

 

What about Erik Johnson? Second round pick, yes? Had we forfeited that pick, we'd be down our #1 prospect today.

 

Hopefully he is one to buck the trend, but the odds are stacked against the second rounder being a big contributor. History shows it.

 

They have only signed 3 second rounders in team history with career WARs over 2. 2 of them are relievers Drafted 43 and 23 years ago. The other is Ryan Sweeney.

 

Do you really think the #53 pick has a better chance of contributing to winning than Curtis Granderson?

 

I can understand people having reasons for hoping the Sox don't sign him, but if you would sign if you didn't have to surrender the pick, your opinion shouldn't change because the pick is attached.

Edited December 5, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

Hopefully he is one to buck the trend, but the odds are stacked against the second rounder being a big contributor. History shows it.

 

They have only signed 3 second rounders in team history with career WARs over 2. 2 of them are relievers Drafted 43 and 23 years ago. The other is Ryan Sweeney.

 

Yeah, I mean the pick has a relatively low chance of being awesome, but it DOES have a chance, and therefore it has value. And the TYPE of value it has is extra attractive to our 99 loss team when compared to the exclusively short-term value of Granderson. So the DP compensation should absolutely be a factor. You can argue they should sign Granderson anyway, but I don't think you can argue the DP is a meaningless part of the equation.

 

Plus the posters above are right to cite the players that have been good and rafted in the second round as opposed to just SOX player drafted in the second round. There is talent to be had there, history shows us that much.

[cabiness42]

OK

Forster 1970 20.7

Wickman 1990 17.2

Weaver 1997 (not signed) 15.4

Sweeney 2003 6.3

 

The only 4 players the White Sox have ever selected in the second round with a career WAR over 2.0.

 

So the fix for a franchise that sucks at drafting is to give away picks to sign expensive free agents, as opposed to getting better at drafting.

 

[witesoxfan]

Hopefully he is one to buck the trend, but the odds are stacked against the second rounder being a big contributor. History shows it.

 

They have only signed 3 second rounders in team history with career WARs over 2. 2 of them are relievers Drafted 43 and 23 years ago. The other is Ryan Sweeney.

 

Do you really think the #53 pick has a better chance of contributing to winning than Curtis Granderson?

 

I can understand people having reasons for hoping the Sox don't sign him, but if you would sign if you didn't have to surrender the pick, your opinion shouldn't change because the pick is attached.

 

History is against the first round pick ever contributing. Does that mean you should just forfeit every draft pick?

[hogan873]

I can see both sides of the argument here, and thanks to folks more knowledgable than me about draft picks I am definitely leaning more towards NOT signing Granderson and saving the pick. Mainly my thinking is how soon will the Sox be competitive? The AL Central is not as weak as it used to be, and going into a season thinking that 85 wins could win the division is foolhardy. I'm not saying that couldn't happen, but it's doubtful.

 

Signing a 32 year-old guy who hasn't been great as of late for the money he will most likely get to play on a team that is at least two years away from competing doesn't make sense. Especially when you'd have to sacrifice a pick that COULD bring some much needed talent to a depleted farm system.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, I mean the pick has a relatively low chance of being awesome, but it DOES have a chance, and therefore it has value. And the TYPE of value it has is extra attractive to our 99 loss team when compared to the exclusively short-term value of Granderson. So the DP compensation should absolutely be a factor. You can argue they should sign Granderson anyway, but I don't think you can argue the DP is a meaningless part of the equation.

 

Plus the posters above are right to cite the players that have been good and rafted in the second round as opposed to just SOX player drafted in the second round. There is talent to be had there, history shows us that much.

As I stated, the compensation should not be a deterrent signing him. If you would sign him without the compensation being in place, losing that pick shouldn't be the difference.

[witesoxfan]

As I stated, the compensation should not be a deterrent signing him. If you would sign him without the compensation being in place, losing that pick shouldn't be the difference.

 

No, the pick absolutely can and should be the difference. Seriously, the Sox could give up their 1st round pick this year and likely not regret it, but that doesn't mean they should. For a team as starved for prospects as the White Sox are, giving up draft picks is not a wise decision.

[Eminor3rd]

Do you really think the #53 pick has a better chance of contributing to winning than Curtis Granderson?

 

I do! But note that that is a different question than "do you think the #53 will be a better player than 33 year old Granderson"

 

Because I think the chances are high that Granderson's contributions won't be near enough to help our team compete in the current window. I think that the #2 pick, even if it is ultimately a role player, has an excellent chance of contributing to our team in a time where that contribution will help add up to a playoff appearance. It's a risk, of course, but there's big upside there too.

 

But I still think that's the wrong question. Because Granderson will cost more than just the pick. He'l cost money that could be invested elsewhere and he' cost PT that could be used for development elsewhere. So the decision to sign Granderson is based on the value of the pick PLUS other things; the pick doesn't have to be more valuable than Granderson on its own for the deal to be a bad idea.

[BlackSox13]

Simply put, how can a farm as bad as the Sox, with very limited tradable mlb talent to help restock the farm rebuild by giving away draft picks?

 

As far as the argument of will that #2 pick help as much as Granderson would? There's no answer at this time since that pick has yet to be drafted and developed so its mere speculation on both sides. Would that pick help now? No. Would Granderson help this team now? Doubtful with the current roster. Would that pick help in the future when the sox have a better chance of contending? Quite possibly and I'm willing to take a chance on that possibility. Especially with a deep 14' draft.

Edited December 5, 2013 by StRoostifer

[southsider2k5]

OK

Forster 1970 20.7

Wickman 1990 17.2

Weaver 1997 (not signed) 15.4

Sweeney 2003 6.3

 

The only 4 players the White Sox have ever selected in the second round with a career WAR over 2.0.

 

The question is will the Sox get more out of Granderson for the time they sign him for, than they would out of that second round pick, AND the $40ish million to sign him.

[Dick Allen]

We really don't even know if the White Sox are after Granderson. It could just be agent talk. But also keep in mind if the Sox traded for Granderson, someone would leave who probably would have stayed. Viciedo or De Aza most likely. There would be something coming back that, in essence, is in lieu of the 2nd round pick.

[southsider2k5]

We really don't even know if the White Sox are after Granderson. It could just be agent talk. But also keep in mind if the Sox traded for Granderson, someone would leave who probably would have stayed. Viciedo or De Aza most likely. There would be something coming back that, in essence, is in lieu of the 2nd round pick.

 

You could also look at it as the Sox would have to give up Erik Johnson to get him, in addition to spending that on a contract.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Jeremy Reed never turned into anything. Miguel Olivo at his best was a fairly solid backstop on some bad teams but one with a poor reputation for working with pitchers and without much consistency with the bat. Michael Morse never turned into anything for Seattle until they gave up more talent to reacquire him after labeling him a bust & letting him go. None of this has anything to do with Freddy Garcia helping us win a title.

 

The idea of a stocked farm is that it provides a team with a wide pool of talented players to assess, and it affords much greater organizational flexibility. An organization can pick and choose which players to keep around, which players to trade, and if there are a couple different highly rated prospects about to break through at a couple different positions, an organization can pick and choose which MLB player (and salary) should be replaced/traded, and that flexibility alone could prove very valuable.

 

Dick Allen = Devil's Advocate. He and Marty34 would make a great tag team if they didn't hate each other so passionately.

[The Ultimate Champion]

DeAza is good as gone anyway. Viciedo is pointless to dump for pennies on the dollar. I'm not sure how/why you would factor them into a Granderson addition anyway. Granderson = no 2nd round pick plus the money, and you're getting exactly what out of him? He's the type of player that should hit a sharp decline pretty soon, a speedy K power guy. No thanks, dumb move. We're not contenders & he should garner less trade interest 1-2 season from now than he has interest on the open market now, and his return would probably be pretty underwhelming.