witesoxfan Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 02:17 AM) What is the downward OPS/WAR correction from that Boston Red Sox offense to the White Sox, where there would be a lot less protection and definitely more offensive production expected...more pressure to earn his contract? Protection has been proven time and time and time again to be a myth made up by ancient baseball gods to get people to pay more for players. Or, at the very least, it's a myth, because that protection sure worked well in 2011, didn't it? And if you're afraid that he'll underachieve trying to earn his contract, then there's no point to ever sign anyone to a multi year deal and you may as well go with pre-arb players every year. Of course, then you run into the conundrum of those players trying to hard to earn their salary every year, and then you're left with a 120 loss team and s*** how did I get here? I don't think you do it, unless you can get some other pieces in place (let's say, Chris Young, Abreu and offensive improvement at 2B/SS/3B). uhhh, Chris Young? Same guy who's put up .225/.312/.412/.725 over his last 1400 plate appearances and can't hit right handed pitching? Yeah sure sounds like an upgrade WHAT? If you sign Abreu, you almost have to go out and sign 2 more players (let's Chris Young and Salty) to make a true run at it. Chris Young is a backup. He hits left handed pitching and that's about it, and he doesn't do it particularly well. Why do you keep bringing him up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 The "atrocious against lefties" thing scares me. Going into his Age 29 season. I don't know. I'd probably be happy if they signed him, but my gut is telling me this isn't the time to hand out 4-year contracts unless they land Abreu or break the bank for McCann--which is highly unlikely. Atrocious against lefties isn't a big deal for the Sox. They seem to be cornering the market on lefty starters so their hitters won't be facing very many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPN366 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 04:52 PM) Then I'd get to call YOU a salty bastard This is a call back to something, right? You need to refresh my memory, Blake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (JPN366 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 09:42 AM) This is a call back to something, right? You need to refresh my memory, Blake. You called me a drunk, salty bastard on Twitter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted October 17, 2013 Author Share Posted October 17, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 02:17 AM) What is the downward OPS/WAR correction from that Boston Red Sox offense to the White Sox, where there would be a lot less protection and definitely more offensive production expected...more pressure to earn his contract? There wouldn't be any correction -- WAR is based on context-neutral offensive statistics and is thus inherently adjusted for league and offensive environment, so it's safe to compare results from team to team. As far as lineup protection goes, it's among the most heavily researched controversies in sabermetrics today. People have tried very hard to find an effect for it, but no one has been able to do so. At least among sabermetricians, the current consensus is that lineup protection is a myth. I admit that it really does feel like it should be important intuitively, but the studies I've read have been pretty compelling. I guess it's more accurate to say that lineup protection does not have a significant effect on the offensive outcomes of a player -- it's still possible that there are several actual effects happening on the field that just happen to cancel each other out. It just doesn't end up with a player hitting better or worse. I have no idea how to tell if he'd respond significantly to changing levels of pressure. I guess that's just something the team has to try to gauge when getting to know him. EDIT: Once again didn't see that wite already said this. I do this s*** with email, too. I have a bunch to read and I just take them one by one only to realize that there have been more emails further down in my pile that have changed the situation. I'm not very effective as a person, overall. Edited October 17, 2013 by Eminor3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 07:25 AM) Protection has been proven time and time and time again to be a myth made up by ancient baseball gods to get people to pay more for players. Or, at the very least, it's a myth, because that protection sure worked well in 2011, didn't it? And if you're afraid that he'll underachieve trying to earn his contract, then there's no point to ever sign anyone to a multi year deal and you may as well go with pre-arb players every year. Of course, then you run into the conundrum of those players trying to hard to earn their salary every year, and then you're left with a 120 loss team and s*** how did I get here? uhhh, Chris Young? Same guy who's put up .225/.312/.412/.725 over his last 1400 plate appearances and can't hit right handed pitching? Yeah sure sounds like an upgrade WHAT? Chris Young is a backup. He hits left handed pitching and that's about it, and he doesn't do it particularly well. Why do you keep bringing him up? THE ARTICLE DID.... as an alternative to overspending on Granderson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 09:57 AM) THE ARTICLE DID.... as an alternative to overspending on Granderson. Chris Young is terrible and so is the author who suggested bringing in Chris Young. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 06:44 AM) Yes, we all know you don't think the Sox will compete next year. You say it in every thread. But I think you are dead wrong. If the Sox were to land Abreu and McCann/Salty, I don't think that there is any reason to believe they won't be a +.500 team next year with the rotation that they have. Call me crazy, but I don't think 81 wins will contend for the playoffs next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 09:53 AM) You called me a drunk, salty bastard on Twitter truthful terms of endearment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 10:55 AM) Call me crazy, but I don't think 81 wins will contend for the playoffs next year. God, you're insufferable. Nobody said 81 wins contends for the playoffs. The point I was making is that if signing two free agents that fit within your budget is enough to get you over .500, you are very close to being a playoff contender, especially if our young core of players can continue progressing. You are definitely not "3 years away" like you claim every other post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 12:30 PM) God, you're insufferable. Nobody said 81 wins contends for the playoffs. The point I was making is that if signing two free agents that fit within your budget is enough to get you over .500, you are very close to being a playoff contender, especially if our young core of players can continue progressing. You are definitely not "3 years away" like you claim every other post. 81 wins would be a major leap. I think it will take 2 years to get to that. The division got better this year w Cleveland and KC better teams so now the White Sox will have a tougher time winning in the division. I do think Detroit is aging quickly so we have to see if they try getting younger in the offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 11:38 AM) 81 wins would be a major leap. I think it will take 2 years to get to that. The division got better this year w Cleveland and KC better teams so now the White Sox will have a tougher time winning in the division. I do think Detroit is aging quickly so we have to see if they try getting younger in the offseason. I really don't think an 18+ win improvement is out of the question. I'm not counting on it, but I think it can be done. Signing McCann and Abreu could easily give us a 8 win improvement by themselves. Add in the fact that having another year of development out of Quintana, Santiago, Garcia and Viciedo could add a couple more. We were in a lot of games this year and our record could have easily been better than it was. We played 60 one run games and 23 extra inning games. Our record in those? 24-36 and 8-15 respectively. The additional players/development and an improvement in our hard to explain poor fielding from this year could possibly flip those numbers around. If that happens, we are a lot closer than people realize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPN366 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 09:53 AM) You called me a drunk, salty bastard on Twitter I meant it out of love. Figured you'd take it as a compliment. If I hurt your feelings, I'm truly sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (JPN366 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 12:17 PM) I meant it out of love. Figured you'd take it as a compliment. If I hurt your feelings, I'm truly sorry. I did take it as a compliment. I just was hoping I could return the favor. Edited October 17, 2013 by witesoxfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Why do I have this sneaking suspicion it will be Kurt Suzuki as the starting catcher for 2014? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 04:57 PM) I really don't think an 18+ win improvement is out of the question. I'm not counting on it, but I think it can be done. Signing McCann and Abreu could easily give us a 8 win improvement by themselves. Add in the fact that having another year of development out of Quintana, Santiago, Garcia and Viciedo could add a couple more. We were in a lot of games this year and our record could have easily been better than it was. We played 60 one run games and 23 extra inning games. Our record in those? 24-36 and 8-15 respectively. The additional players/development and an improvement in our hard to explain poor fielding from this year could possibly flip those numbers around. If that happens, we are a lot closer than people realize. Sox have so much work to do on the roster, on the field (defense wins games) and regarding team chemistry/attitude. Right now we are the patsies of the Central Division. Sox routinely get mopped up by Detroit, Cleveland and KC and even have problems with Minnesota. Barring the changes to 5-6 lineup spots that many of us want, this doesn't figure to change. I say odds of Sox flirting with .500 after this year's disaster are very slim. This isn't the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 11:30 AM) God, you're insufferable. Nobody said 81 wins contends for the playoffs. The point I was making is that if signing two free agents that fit within your budget is enough to get you over .500, you are very close to being a playoff contender, especially if our young core of players can continue progressing. You are definitely not "3 years away" like you claim every other post. I said they won't be playoff contenders for 3 more years, you said I was wrong because they could win 81 games next year. How does what you say jive with what I said? I think they can win 81 games next year too. I don't think it's likely, but I think there is a reasonable chance. But great, that's still not a playoff contender. You could say 81 wins in 2014, 85-86 wins in 2015, and then just like that, 90+ wins in 2016, and BOOM, a playoff contender 3 seasons away. Soooo insufferable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 02:16 PM) I said they won't be playoff contenders for 3 more years, you said I was wrong because they could win 81 games next year. How does what you say jive with what I said? I think they can win 81 games next year too. I don't think it's likely, but I think there is a reasonable chance. But great, that's still not a playoff contender. You could say 81 wins in 2014, 85-86 wins in 2015, and then just like that, 90+ wins in 2016, and BOOM, a playoff contender 3 seasons away. Soooo insufferable. I said they could be a +.500 team which means more than 81 wins. Any team that is over .500 is close to being a playoff contender. I never once said 81 wins get you in the playoffs, you're tryin to put words in my mouth to prove your point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPN366 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 01:45 PM) Why do I have this sneaking suspicion it will be Kurt Suzuki as the starting catcher for 2014? F*** you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPN366 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 01:35 PM) I did take it as a compliment. I just was hoping I could return the favor. Anytime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 QUOTE (JPN366 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 03:57 PM) Anytime. Thanks, I appreciate it Salty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 03:37 PM) I said they could be a +.500 team which means more than 81 wins. Any team that is over .500 is close to being a playoff contender. I never once said 81 wins get you in the playoffs, you're tryin to put words in my mouth to prove your point. Pick one. You say I am wrong and that they WILL be a playoff contender, but then say that they would be "CLOSE TO" being one. Either they are or they are not. My guess is 2016 will be the first season the Sox will matter within the division. You think it will be sooner, correct? Fine, we understand each other then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shago Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 QUOTE (chw42 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 11:02 AM) Salty's the next logical option if you miss out on McCann. AJ is a better alternative Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted October 18, 2013 Author Share Posted October 18, 2013 QUOTE (La Marr Hoyt HOF @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 06:58 AM) AJ is a better alternative Why? I think we've all agreed that if we're going to spend on FA, it should be for players who will be valuable 3-5 years out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPN366 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 04:42 PM) Thanks, I appreciate it Salty You left out bastard. Fail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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