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Right to be skeptical?


ozzfest

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The White Sox have never hit the jackpot in free agency. Ever. Why is this any different? If this (Abreu) guy were as good as people say, wouldn't the Yankees, or Giants, or Rangers, or Cubs been all over him and they would have definitely been willing to outbid the White Sox. Paying him twice as much as Puig.....I'm skeptical. Not trying to be a buzzkill, but there needs to be a separate discussion here of just how unproven this guy is. The White Sox have never been the smartest free agent seekers....If something is too good to be true...it is. I guarantee this guy isn't an all star.

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QUOTE (ozzfest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 12:25 PM)
The White Sox have never hit the jackpot in free agency. Ever. Why is this any different? If this (Abreu) guy were as good as people say, wouldn't the Yankees, or Giants, or Rangers, or Cubs been all over him and they would have definitely been willing to outbid the White Sox. Paying him twice as much as Puig.....I'm skeptical. Not trying to be a buzzkill, but there needs to be a separate discussion here of just how unproven this guy is. The White Sox have never been the smartest free agent seekers....If something is too good to be true...it is. I guarantee this guy isn't an all star.

 

Jermaine Dye? A.J. Pierzynski?

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 12:28 PM)
Jermaine Dye? A.J. Pierzynski?

I should have made myself more clear. Apologies. I'm talking about being the BIG spender. Dye and AJ were great under the radar moves. Every team HAS to hit on those sometimes. BUT, I'm talking about unloading big money and being right.

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QUOTE (ozzfest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 12:25 PM)
The White Sox have never hit the jackpot in free agency. Ever. Why is this any different? If this (Abreu) guy were as good as people say, wouldn't the Yankees, or Giants, or Rangers, or Cubs been all over him and they would have definitely been willing to outbid the White Sox. Paying him twice as much as Puig.....I'm skeptical. Not trying to be a buzzkill, but there needs to be a separate discussion here of just how unproven this guy is. The White Sox have never been the smartest free agent seekers....If something is too good to be true...it is. I guarantee this guy isn't an all star.

 

The Giants and Rangers were interested in him. Did you follow it at all? The Red Sox, Astros, and Marlins were also interested, and there were likely others we didn't hear about that showed significant interest too, some of them with $60+ million bids.

 

I think you are freaking out because you believe that Murphy's Law always hits the White Sox. Maybe you should settle down and realize that the Sox got a guy that has MVP type upside.

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QUOTE (ozzfest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 05:29 PM)
I should have made myself more clear. Apologies. I'm talking about being the BIG spender. Dye and AJ were great under the radar moves. Every team HAS to hit on those sometimes. BUT, I'm talking about unloading big money and being right.

We've only ever unloaded twice pn a free agent. Albert Belle and Adam Dunn. One was a monster, the other not so much yet. Don't really think there's a track record to look at.

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QUOTE (ozzfest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 05:25 PM)
The White Sox have never hit the jackpot in free agency. Ever. Why is this any different? If this (Abreu) guy were as good as people say, wouldn't the Yankees, or Giants, or Rangers, or Cubs been all over him and they would have definitely been willing to outbid the White Sox. Paying him twice as much as Puig.....I'm skeptical. Not trying to be a buzzkill, but there needs to be a separate discussion here of just how unproven this guy is. The White Sox have never been the smartest free agent seekers....If something is too good to be true...it is. I guarantee this guy isn't an all star.

 

It's a risk, but his contract is not that outrageous in this day and age. If he's pathetic, sure, the Sox will be stuck with him a long long time. But the Sox are desperate and currently have some money to spend. At this stage, he's probably worth the risk. Now it's time to improve C and 3B and one outfield spot and add a reliable bullpen guy while hoping/pleading Semien takes over for Beckham.

Edited by greg775
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QUOTE (ozzfest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 12:29 PM)
I should have made myself more clear. Apologies. I'm talking about being the BIG spender. Dye and AJ were great under the radar moves. Every team HAS to hit on those sometimes. BUT, I'm talking about unloading big money and being right.

So basically you are saying anytime the White Sox land a high priced guy, we should be pessimistic because no other team offered him as much.

 

That's a bad way to go through life as a Sox fan. The Sox need some offense. They just picked up some guy who is 26, free agents generally are a lot older, and put up numbers people don't put up in Little League in Cuba. Be happy.

 

Also, in the grand scheme of things, this really isn't all that big money anymore.

 

Chances are probably better this guy pans out than the guy they select with the 3rd pick of the draft next June.

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QUOTE (ozzfest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 12:25 PM)
The White Sox have never hit the jackpot in free agency. Ever. Why is this any different? If this (Abreu) guy were as good as people say, wouldn't the Yankees, or Giants, or Rangers, or Cubs been all over him and they would have definitely been willing to outbid the White Sox. Paying him twice as much as Puig.....I'm skeptical. Not trying to be a buzzkill, but there needs to be a separate discussion here of just how unproven this guy is. The White Sox have never been the smartest free agent seekers....If something is too good to be true...it is. I guarantee this guy isn't an all star.

 

Wrong question, sir.

 

Why, instead, is it the same?

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 12:42 PM)
It's a risk, but his contract is not that outrageous in this day and age. If he's pathetic, sure, the Sox will be stuck with him a long long time. But the Sox are desperate and currently have some money to spend. At this stage, he's probably worth the risk. Now it's time to improve C and 3B and one outfield spot and add a reliable bullpen guy while hoping/pleading Semien takes over for Beckham.

 

You've never posted anything I agree with more :P

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QUOTE (ozzfest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 12:25 PM)
The White Sox have never hit the jackpot in free agency. Ever. Why is this any different? If this (Abreu) guy were as good as people say, wouldn't the Yankees, or Giants, or Rangers, or Cubs been all over him and they would have definitely been willing to outbid the White Sox. Paying him twice as much as Puig.....I'm skeptical. Not trying to be a buzzkill, but there needs to be a separate discussion here of just how unproven this guy is. The White Sox have never been the smartest free agent seekers....If something is too good to be true...it is. I guarantee this guy isn't an all star.

Ever?.................................Carlton Fisk says hello. Fisk was 100% jackpot and changed the Sox perception all for the better.

 

ESPN has Fisk listed in the best 18 free agent signings in honorable mention section and yes I know article is dated.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...ntracts/MLBbest

Edited by Soxfest
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Yes you should be skeptical. He hasn't hit MLB pitching, hasn't subjected himself to the grind of a MLB season. There are enough question marks to be skeptical. The team's track record with FAs probably should not be one of them. As noted there are several signing, from bargain basement scrap heap finds, to mid level starters, to big money marquee names.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic at this very expensive rookie prospect.

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Abreu was the best hitter in Cuba

He will be in his prime during the entire 6 year deal, at age 27 through 32.

He won't be blocking anybody on the farm. Konerko's contract is over, and Dunn's will be, at the end of the year.

They didn't have to give up a draft pick: "this is the only mega deal the White Sox could strike (at least for a position player) that wouldn't cost them: 1) a chunk of their international budget, or 2) a draft pick. Abreu is older than 23 and has logged more than three years of Serie Nacional play, so he's exempt from the pool rules."

 

Look, I don't care where he played, A ball, college, Japan, Cuba, or anywhere else. When you hit a home run every other game, and put up average and OBP numbers so far above the rest of the league, you have exceptional talent. At $11.3 million per year, he doesn't have to be Miguel Cabrera. If he hits close to .300 with an OBP above .360, with 30 or more homers, he'll be worth every penny, and likely our best hitter.

 

Whether he lives up to his hype, or not, it is a gamble Hahn had to take.

Edited by Lillian
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QUOTE (Lillian @ Oct 20, 2013 -> 11:55 AM)
Abreu was the best hitter in Cuba

 

At what level do you place Cuba ball?

 

MLB?

AAA+?

AAA?

AA?

A?

 

That will determine how confident someone should be about the likelihood of his success.

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I am about 50/50 on Abreu. The initial scouting report called him one of the best hitters in the world, with comparisons to Bonds and Cabrera. The recent scouting reports called him a slider speed hitter who will have trouble hitting good pitchers with plus heat, but will feast on the lesser ones. That kind of does explain the incredible numbers he has put up in Cuba. The other question mark is he is already profiled as a 1B/DH, defense is not a strong part of his game. If he doesn't contribute offensively, it will be hard for him to earn that contract.

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QUOTE (Tex @ Oct 20, 2013 -> 11:12 AM)
At what level do you place Cuba ball?

 

MLB?

AAA+?

AAA?

AA?

A?

 

That will determine how confident someone should be about the likelihood of his success.

 

That is the big question. However, while we don't know exactly what level to compare to Cuban baseball, we do know that Abreu was clearly the best hitter there. Since we know that there are other Cuban players, who have performed pretty well, that should provide a good indication that he will be productive. It will be interesting and fun, to discover just how productive. I can't wait!!!

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 20, 2013 -> 06:04 PM)
What cracks me up is when this guy becomes available, everyone says the Sox must get him. They get him, then people worry the Sox spent too much. Who cares? You aren't signing the checks.

 

I could only imagine the complaining if the Sox didn't sign this guy.

 

 

I like this post Dick Allen. It seems this is what we get every time. Basically it's "I feel strongly both ways about this guy." "He may flop and he may not." LOL A plus major league hitter fails 7 out of 10 times. I think the point will be how he hits in the clutch and it appears he is well regardaed in the area of being productive with the bat. I think it will be fun to see what happens with him and the Sox in 2014

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QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Oct 20, 2013 -> 01:27 PM)
I am about 50/50 on Abreu. The initial scouting report called him one of the best hitters in the world, with comparisons to Bonds and Cabrera. The recent scouting reports called him a slider speed hitter who will have trouble hitting good pitchers with plus heat, but will feast on the lesser ones. That kind of does explain the incredible numbers he has put up in Cuba. The other question mark is he is already profiled as a 1B/DH, defense is not a strong part of his game. If he doesn't contribute offensively, it will be hard for him to earn that contract.

If the White Sox are wrong on this one then people will lose their jobs. I'm content with that. Kenny and Rick just put $70 million of other people's money on the line as a bet on this guy. If they lose the bet the team loses for another 2-3 years and then the White Sox are looking for a fresh set of voices in their front office.

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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Oct 20, 2013 -> 03:31 PM)
How often do we see traditional players put up Abreu's numbers in A ball? 11 million is not much risk

 

We all saw what the equivalency formula came up with. I sure don't ever remember seeing a player in any level of the minors put up the numbers that Abreu did.

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