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ESPN insider on AL Cy Young race


southsider2k5

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Much like in the National League, the choice for the American League Cy Young Award is not going to be an easy one. This is a race that will be impacted greatly by what transpires in the last month of the season. At least here there will be no starter-closer controversy as there is bound to be in the National League. I was looking at the ESPN.com poll on that award and was shocked to see that a quarter of the voters thought Eric Gagne's All-Star Game performance should be held against him. Man! Talk about a tough crowd.

 

 

Let's run through the leading candidates for the American League Cy Young Award:

 

Esteban Loaiza: He's third in ERA and fourth in WHIP. He combines that with 17 wins, including a big one over the Yankees in New York last night. For those keen on putting performance in context of what the pitcher's team in doing in the standings, one can make the case that Loaiza kept the White Sox afloat during their first-half ennui.

 

Tim Hudson

Starting Pitcher

Oakland Athletics 

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2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM W L Sv K ERA

28 13 4 0 129 2.40

 

 

Tim Hudson: It's always kind of amusing when pitchers on the same team have wildly diverse run support totals. It makes you wonder if the team is playing favorites with its support. That's silly, of course, but kind of amusing to ponder. The A's have been fairly kind to Hudson, getting him just over six runs a start. Overall, their run totals have not been great, so that kind of largesse on Hudson's behalf is pretty impressive. Consider that his teammate, Barry Zito, has been propped up with 1.5 runs less per start. Mark Mulder was not faring much better, either. Hudson, along with Mike Mussina, has the best WHIP in the league, allowing just one baserunner per inning. He currently has the second-best ERA but, at 13-4, is lacking in the wins that Cy Young voters like so much.

 

Mark Mulder: It is conceivable that a pitcher could get put on the shelf in the fourth week of August and still win the Cy Young Award. In order for that to happen, however, he would have to have made a very strong case for himself prior to getting injured. He would have to have already banked such outstanding credentials that the voters would have no choice but to ignore the fact that he was not around for the stretch drive. There would also have to be a paucity of other qualified candidates. Such is not the case with Mark Mulder in 2003. While he has been one of the three or four best pitchers in the league this year, his injury is going to get him left behind.

 

Mike Mussina: Mussina seems like the kind of pitcher who is going to put it all together one season and get a Cy Young for himself. In fact, two years ago, he pitched better than the Cy Young Award winner, teammate Roger Clemens. Clemens got all the W's though and that sure helps when it comes to copping this particular award. His credentials are a little shy this time around, however, with his ERA a half-run-plus higher than some of the other candidates.

 

Keith Foulke: The A's closer is the only relief pitcher within spitting distance of the American League Cy Young Award -- and that's about where he'll end up: within spitting distance. He's been the league's best reliever to this point.

 

Roy Halladay

Starting Pitcher

Toronto Blue Jays 

Profile

 

 

2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM W L Sv K ERA

29 17 5 0 155 3.55

 

 

Roy Halladay: Only Rick Helling of the Orioles (who also did an admirable job supporting Sidney Ponson) and David Wells of New York have had better run support than Halladay. There are pitchers on this list getting two runs per game less, namely Loaiza, for whom the White Sox are providing 4.68 runs per game. As of this writing, Loaiza and Halladay have nearly identical won-loss records. With Loaiza allowing nearly a full earned run less per game, it seems to me he is the main roadblock to Halladay's candidacy and rightfully so.

 

Pedro Martinez: When he has pitched, Martinez has usually been outstanding, racking up the best Average Game Score in the league. However, there are approximately 32 men who have thrown more American League innings than he has this year. When it comes to the big accounting at the end of the year, that has got to matter. He leads the league in ERA but has not racked up the Ws and IPs one likes to see in one's Cy Young winners.

 

There are a number of pitchers whose won-loss records compare favorably to Loaiza's but whose ERAs eliminate them from consideration. This list would include Ponson, Jamie Moyer of Seattle and Andy Pettitte of New York.

 

If the voting were held today, I would have to say that Loaiza would be the best choice. In a year where no one pitcher has been truly dominant, he has logged some very good across-the-board credentials. As I wrote yesterday, a lot can happen to a Cy Young candidacy in the space of four weeks, so this is by no means a lock. Somebody on this list could peel off four or five outstanding starts in a row while a couple others get roughed up and the whole picture could change.

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When you think about it he really did keep the sox afloat the first half.

Hell yes he did! Good grief.. I don't even want to think about where we'd be if he wasn't on. And with the best ERA in the league for what.... nearly 2 months?

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More like 4 months.  It was only at the beginning of August that he let that crown go.

I thought Halladay and Mussina were ahead of him in April & May and them and Zito in June...?

 

Not a bg deal. And 4 months makes it an ever better argument for him to win it!

 

Can you believe Keith is in the mix..? Oye! Sure hope that doesn't come back to bit Kenny in the arse... again!

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I thought Halladay and Mussina were ahead of him in April & May and them and Zito in June...?

 

Not a bg deal. And 4 months makes it an ever better argument for him to win it!

 

Can you believe Keith is in the mix..? Oye! Sure hope that doesn't come back to bit Kenny in the arse... again!

Too late for that. That trade has already tore a chunk out of his ass. Image where this team would be if Keith Foulke was still closing games instead of the mess with Koch for the first few months... This race would be over.

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Oh Lord I did NOT mean to say Mussina!! He had a horrible June and July compared to ELo. Maybe Zito..? Mulder? Were they at least close? Oh crap.. I don't know.

:lol:

These are ELo's game logs.

 

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/players/ga...og?statsId=6394

 

 

Hudson is no where close for the first two months

 

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/players/ga...og?statsId=6245

 

Zito looks close, but I think only after his April 8th start would be be ahead of ELo that and for a couple of days in May.

 

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/players/ga...og?statsId=6394

 

Mulder started off terrible

 

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/players/ga...og?statsId=6393

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Oh Lord I did NOT mean to say Mussina!! He had a horrible June and July compared to ELo. Maybe Zito..? Mulder? Were they at least close? Oh crap.. I don't know.

:lol:

These are ELo's game logs.

 

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/players/ga...og?statsId=6394

 

 

Hudson is no where close for the first two months

 

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/players/ga...og?statsId=6245

 

Zito looks close, but I think only after his April 8th start would be be ahead of ELo that and for a couple of days in May.

 

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/players/ga...og?statsId=6394

 

Mulder started off terrible

 

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/players/ga...og?statsId=6393

Thanks SS. No ESPN access here though :angry:

 

I'll look when I get home.

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That's true.  If we win this thing, Loaiza should really be given serious consideration for MVP. The Cy Young should be a lock.

To win MVP, a pitcher has to have a year like Pedro had in 1999 -- nearly 25 wins, and an ERA in the 1.00's. Loaiza's had a great year. Cy Young, yes. MVP, nah.

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Like someone mentioned, I'm quite certain that until that Texas game (5 IP, 7 ER), Loaiza had the #1 ERA in the AL (he was #2 in MLB behind Brown for a few starts). So for April, May, June, and July, Loaiza was the cream of the crop in the AL. And despite getting poor run support for much of the year, he's still #1 (tied with Halladay, who by the way has an ERA a full run HIGHER than Loaiza) in the AL in wins with 17.

 

And on a side-note when it comes to Sox players and potential awards, many people are starting to mention the words "Frank Thomas" and "most valuable player" in the same sentence. We all know that Frank has 3 MVP's (1993, 1994, and 2000 - the one that Giambi stole), and this year started out kinda slow for him. He's really mashing now, though, when it matters most, and if you look at the teams that are vying for playoff spots, there really isn't a standout guy that you can say "he should win MVP hands-down" about. Look at the teams still in the playoff picture and who their potential MVP candidates are...

 

NYY -- Giambi I guess (.260, 35, 94), but those are on par with Frank, and the Yankees have been in 1st all year

 

Boston -- Probably Manny (.317, 31, 90), Pedro's having a good year, but he won't win it

 

Seattle -- Bret Boone's having a good year (.295, 31, 100), but MVP?

 

Oakland -- Hudson's been their best player, and he ain't winnin' it. Tejada's been hot lately (.273, 23, 88) I suppose

 

Sox -- Thomas (.268, 36, 84) and Magglio (.321, 25, 80) appear to be our candidates.

 

So like I said, no one player is going to win the award hands down. If Frank continues on his tear (he's now on pace for 44 HR, which would be a new career high), and if the Sox can win the Central, I think he's got a more than legitimate chance of MVP #4 (3rd recognized).

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