Eminor3rd Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 22, 2013 -> 11:07 PM) I don't agree with this at all. A well constructed offense can produce more than the sum of the individual parts. For example, a guy like Adam Dunn is going to be a lot more valuable to the Sox if there are people on-base when he hits his home-runs. Does adding a high OBP leadoff guy improve Dunn's WAR? No, but it can make him more productive. I'm not accusing you of this, but WAR is never going to be the be-all-end-all. At the end of the day, baseball is still a team sport and WAR will never be able to account for everything. Not all upgrades in terms of WAR are necessarily equal. I'm not saying that at all. I'm just saying that if Headley is a substantial upgrade over Gillaspie, then he's a substantial upgrade over Gillaspie whether you bat him fourth or ninth. You can maximize the value of each player by placing them in roles based on their skillsets, but event sequencing has been shown to be unpredictable enough that you won't be able to control for baserunners effectively enough to make more than a two win difference between the worst possible lineup construction (pitcher batting fourth, etc.) and the best possible construction. The difference between any half decent logical set up and the ideal are drastically smaller. When all is said and done, the differences in sequencing will be huge, but from a simulation standpoint, and thus a roster construction standpoint, you don't benefit from pigeonholing hitters into 'roles' -- basically you want the guys that get on base the most to be at the top of the lineup so they get the most at bats, and you want the guys with high slugging percentage right behind them so they bat second most. This is the same no matter how your team is constructed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Oct 22, 2013 -> 10:12 PM) It's not like our DH from last year is left handed and batted fourth. I'm sorry, but I don't understand your point. To clarify mine; Adam Dunn may still be on the team, but our offense is not going to be competitive with him putting up last year's numbers, in the clean up spot. As many of you have argued, he needs to bat further down in the order. The number one priority now should be to find a decent left handed, clean up hitter, to replace him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Lillian @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 05:53 AM) I'm sorry, but I don't understand your point. To clarify mine; Adam Dunn may still be on the team, but our offense is not going to be competitive with him putting up last year's numbers, in the clean up spot. As many of you have argued, he needs to bat further down in the order. The number one priority now should be to find a decent left handed, clean up hitter, to replace him. Any suggestions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 05:56 AM) Any suggestions? That is the question we should all be addressing. You can be pretty certain that is what Hahn is contemplating. I don't have the answer, but I'm pretty convinced that it's the right question. What do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 05:56 AM) Any suggestions? That is the question we should all be addressing. You can be pretty certain that is what Hahn is contemplating. I don't have the answer, but I'm pretty convinced that it's the right question. What do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (Lillian @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 06:02 AM) That is the question we should all be addressing. You can be pretty certain that is what Hahn is contemplating. I don't have the answer, but I'm pretty convinced that it's the right question. What do you think? Well like it or not, Dunn will likely be our cleanup hitter this year. I don't disagree that long-term we'll need a left-handed bat to balance the middle of the lineup, but I doubt we'll add that player this year. McCann would probably be the one exception and even he is a huge long-shot. Edited October 23, 2013 by Chicago White Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Lillian @ Oct 22, 2013 -> 10:05 PM) I don't think he is capable of hitting clean up. The Sox are probably targeting a left handed clean up hitter. If they acquired Headley, that still leaves a hole at that spot in the lineup. Yet you made a line up recently with Grady Sizemore batting clean up. Headley could be the left handed power bat with a high OBP you are looking for. He plays in a pitchers park and was hurt most of last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 06:34 AM) Yet you made a line up recently with Grady Sizemore batting clean up. Headley could be the left handed power bat with a high OBP you are looking for. He plays in a pitchers park and was hurt most of last year. If Headley could duplicate his 2012 production, I agree. If his performance last year was adversely affected by injuries, perhaps he could be the guy. The more we all grapple with this question, the more you can appreciate my wishful thinking regarding a Sizemore return to stardom, in a Sox uniform. I know it was a desperate suggestion. I just don't see many options that would be affordable, and available. If we are stuck with Dunn in the clean up spot, it is not only going to be difficult to compete, but it will likely not do much to help Abreu and Garcia, who could both use some effective protection in the lineup. Edited October 23, 2013 by Lillian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glangon Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I think I'd rather use a combination of Semien and Gillaspie and use the money on an overpaid veteran to be spent on someone like Crain or Cotts to shore up the Bullpen. Signing Headley doesn't fit with the long term plans of Hahn and I don't see it happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (glangon @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 05:58 AM) I think I'd rather use a combination of Semien and Gillaspie and use the money on an overpaid veteran to be spent on someone like Crain or Cotts to shore up the Bullpen. Signing Headley doesn't fit with the long term plans of Hahn and I don't see it happening. Then you have an overpaid veteran in Jeff Keppinger getting paid $4-5 million to play 10-15-20 games at 2B, because he definitely isn't a SS. And why would you want to take that kind of risk on Crain coming off a pretty major injury? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 06:34 AM) Yet you made a line up recently with Grady Sizemore batting clean up. Headley could be the left handed power bat with a high OBP you are looking for. He plays in a pitchers park and was hurt most of last year. Headley is really a perfect fit for us. 2012 was clearly a fluke, but he's still been a productive player every other year since 2010. Get him away from Petco and into the Cell and 20 HRs seems very attainable. He's also a switch-hitter and gets on-base at a nice clip, which addresses two of our largest offensive concerns. On top of that, he's a pretty good defensive player. People need to look at how weak the 3B position is right now and reevaluate Chase Headley. Now, I'm not suggesting we go out and trade the farm for him right now. I fully expect the asking price for him to be too high for our blood. However, if you could acquire him for a reasonable price AND lock him up long-term I'd be all for it. He'd be a huge upgrade over what we through out at 3B last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 07:33 AM) Well like it or not, Dunn will likely be our cleanup hitter this year. I don't disagree that long-term we'll need a left-handed bat to balance the middle of the lineup, but I doubt we'll add that player this year. McCann would probably be the one exception and even he is a huge long-shot. Actually, if I had to guess, I'd bet Dunn slates in 5th in this lineup as currently constructed, with Garcia and Abreu ahead of him and probably Viciedo behind him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 07:59 AM) Actually, if I had to guess, I'd bet Dunn slates in 5th in this lineup as currently constructed, with Garcia and Abreu ahead of him and probably Viciedo behind him. Maybe, although I personally see a 3-4-5 of Abreu-Dunn-Garcia. Either way, Dunn is likely going to be our only left-handed middle of the order bat next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Headley will be 30 y.o. and a free-agent after next year. Pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 07:19 AM) Headley is really a perfect fit for us. 2012 was clearly a fluke, but he's still been a productive player every other year since 2010. Get him away from Petco and into the Cell and 20 HRs seems very attainable. He's also a switch-hitter and gets on-base at a nice clip, which addresses two of our largest offensive concerns. On top of that, he's a pretty good defensive player. People need to look at how weak the 3B position is right now and reevaluate Chase Headley. Now, I'm not suggesting we go out and trade the farm for him right now. I fully expect the asking price for him to be too high for our blood. However, if you could acquire him for a reasonable price AND lock him up long-term I'd be all for it. He'd be a huge upgrade over what we through out at 3B last year. I think Gillaspie can be that guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 07:19 AM) Headley is really a perfect fit for us. 2012 was clearly a fluke, but he's still been a productive player every other year since 2010. Get him away from Petco and into the Cell and 20 HRs seems very attainable. He's also a switch-hitter and gets on-base at a nice clip, which addresses two of our largest offensive concerns. On top of that, he's a pretty good defensive player. People need to look at how weak the 3B position is right now and reevaluate Chase Headley. Now, I'm not suggesting we go out and trade the farm for him right now. I fully expect the asking price for him to be too high for our blood. However, if you could acquire him for a reasonable price AND lock him up long-term I'd be all for it. He'd be a huge upgrade over what we through out at 3B last year. Headley makes no sense for this team. He is FA after 2014, and the SOX are most likely going to be bad again next year, with or without Headley. I am all for a quick turnaround, and I hope like hell this team is competitive next year, but Headley is absolutely not the right way to go. The SOX need young guys who are under control. Not overpaid veterans nearing free agency. It is pretty simple, really. Edited October 23, 2013 by ChiSox59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightni Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 10:31 AM) Headley will be 30 y.o. and a free-agent after next year. Pass. You wouldn't pay some cash for a good year and possible 1st round supplimental pick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 11:13 AM) You wouldn't pay some cash for a good year and possible 1st round supplimental pick? Not when BJ Upton and Dan Uggla are available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightni Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 12:31 PM) Not when BJ Upton and Dan Uggla are available. Both of those players don't play 3B and haven't had a recent history of success. 2007 for Upton, 2010 for Uggla. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 09:34 AM) Both of those players don't play 3B and haven't had a recent history of success. 2007 for Upton, 2010 for Uggla. DA was just teasing Marty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 11:13 AM) You wouldn't pay some cash for a good year and possible 1st round supplimental pick? No. Sure third base is an issue, but the bigger problem is hitter regardless of position and I don't think Headley upgrades the offense enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 11:43 AM) DA was just teasing Marty Yes, DA doesn't understand the concept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 11:45 AM) Yes, DA doesn't understand the concept. Correct. I don't understand concepts that make zero sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightni Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 12:44 PM) No. Sure third base is an issue, but the bigger problem is hitter regardless of position and I don't think Headley upgrades the offense enough. In his bad year, he surpassed Gillaspie and has a gold glove history. Arbitration would be $8.5 to 9 mil for one season and because of that salary, he wouldn't cost much at all to acquire. A comeback year would equal .285 30HR 110RBI 15SB .870 OPS. Even a mediocre year of .260 17HR 70RBI 5SB .780 OPS, would be better than what they've had the last few years at 3B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 23, 2013 -> 11:54 AM) In his bad year, he surpassed Gillaspie and has a gold glove history. Arbitration would be $8.5 to 9 mil for one season and because of that salary, he wouldn't cost much at all to acquire. A comeback year would equal .285 30HR 110RBI 15SB .870 OPS. Even a mediocre year of .260 17HR 70RBI 5SB .780 OPS, would be better than what they've had the last few years at 3B. They're not going to contend next year with Headley and the Padres asking price will be too high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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